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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,821
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:15pm Oct 4, 2016 12:15pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} That's the one that makes me watch them closer. Every model had that storm going 300 miles west of key west the night before. Woke up and it was on top of us. Wasn't a beast yet so we didn't get much damage from it like LA. But shows you their track predictions are not to be relied on. Matt takes a left and I'll be heading your way.
http://www.almanac.com/content/predi...se-bone-method
  • #143,822
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:20pm Oct 4, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} http://www.almanac.com/content/predi...se-bone-method
You figured me out
  • #143,823
  • Edited 12:39pm Oct 4, 2016 12:23pm | Edited 12:39pm
**FUNDAMENTALS reading warning ...it can get dense so for those new in this field just take it slowly to see if anything start making sense.... For the rest feel free to jump in the topic...

<-->


--> Lots of key factors clashing and cooking in the background across all fronts in the FX board. We are set for a sharp increase of volatility in the upcoming sessions.

-> More details coming out from the ECB front without a clear source of the leaked 'tweet' but is getting clearer and clearer that ECB is fighting 2 fronts:

  1. On the one hand, there is concerns about a sharp depreciation of EURO with the Dollar given the imminent hikes and huge monetary disparities even now between both .

     

    1. Added to the dark clouds in the horizon via risk (Brexit) makes the threat of Euro losing floor a rather large, fast and very deep move that can create structural consequences for the EZ;


  2. On the other hand bastards and governments has become addicted to free money and QE.

     

    1. The ECB is desperate (and rightly so) pushing the fiscal agenda and reforms before a shock (call it banks collapse or Brexit) put Europe upside down without margin to do much from the monetary front.


  3. ECB and Draghi are prolly still the most serious and consequent CB across the world and they have managed masterfully expectations and policy so far. Preempting and calling (not saying anything actually) the end of QE was a master of stroke but ECB is reaching the end of the road with negative rates and QE transmission.

  1. Without fiscal reforms and policies and Brexit on the edge of the destroying the common market any misstep or failure to act on time by governments can have huge consequences ...

-> The second factor comes from the UK. The UK government has gone absolutely mad in my view, and not only announced the Brexit day without a plan, but in the last few hours it pretty much decide to give the back to the City.

  1. Last few hours official comments pretty much telling all UK financial sector to fck off and they wont get any guarantee is the negotiation is just plainly not only arrogant but stupid. It may be part of the posturing but markets and the City in general are not reacting very well (obviously).

  1. If the UK does the double whammy, losing access to the Single Market and the same killing the Golden Goose (Financial sector) the impact on the mid term are going to match the hard brexit expectations and that is something that will be catastrophic for the continent

     

    1. .... 'hubris' in the air in the UK government and very myopic feeling of comfort in the last Q numbers (BOE bazooka 1.0 and nothing has changed until article 50) ...i hope they get back to their senses otherwise we are set for major debacle in the next few quarters.


  1. Sterling is already on the go in a preemptive fresh major break down. Equites hasnt follow yet because of FED and especially BOE bazooka 2.0 in Nov but we have very little in between before the real crunching time


-> And finally we have the third major factor in play via the NFP and hikes.

  1. This is the only one scheduled and clear define for the ebb and flow. Not going in details here but without Europe in the picture any good NFP will 100% guarantee a RMT play while only major FLOP will push it until further data.

  1. However, the UK triggering the second and 'meaty' part of the Brexit play (the mid term leg) and European banks starting to send SOS signals from DB to Italy and everybody else in between, things are getting affected as risk start knocking the door. The RMT play is getting harder and choppier to trigger as FED wont pull the trigger if Europe trigger a full blown risk leg until november ....

At the end we have major forces clashing in the Quarter (as it was widely anticipated since June) and the outcome of this play will set the tone for 2017 in rather strong and smooth trends across the FX board....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,824
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:38pm Oct 4, 2016 12:38pm
Fed not gonna do nothing at Nov FOMC, on the eve of US elections. So many different major currents in play for the next month(s), I keep loading long vol trades, surely something will hit sooner or later.

Happy Rosh Hashanah, everyone.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,825
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:42pm Oct 4, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting The Fool
Fed not gonna do nothing at Nov FOMC, on the eve of US elections. So many different major currents in play for the next month(s), I keep loading long vol trades, surely something will hit sooner or later. Happy Rosh Hashanah, everyone.
Dec Hikes is the play ...Nov is just for the noise and the laggers who didn't rode it on time in my books . We need NFP to clear first ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,826
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:48pm Oct 4, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Happy Rosh Hashanah, everyone.
"Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur" - I heard it said....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,827
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:01pm Oct 4, 2016 1:01pm
Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur

Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15...buy-yom-kippur
  • #143,828
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:44pm Oct 4, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting sisse
++++++++++++++TABLE CLOSED 20C ++++++++++++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.116x
@sisse..would like to close long in iteration please if possible at current price (1.1206)...

Thought target would be hit before NFP expectations came into the picture & cant see market breaking through 1.124x & 1.128x levels before Friday...
& long trade is against short/mid outlooks & NFP expectations..
  • #143,829
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:48pm Oct 4, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting PAStalker
{quote} @sisse..would like to close long in iteration please if possible at current price (1.1206)... Thought target would be hit before NFP expectations came into the picture & cant see market breaking through 1.124x & 1.128x levels before Friday... & long trade is against short/mid outlooks & NFP expectations..
But if bad NFP you might be a hero
  • #143,830
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:17pm Oct 4, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} But if bad NFP you might be a hero
well NFPs cannot be "extra" positive for ever...sometime soon they will start to deteriorate...no?

how many "fast food chains" (or courier/package delivery jobs as we are heading to xmas ) are there for all the people there to get...jobs...

personally i believe the earnings "side" is something that will start popping up more often than usual
  • #143,831
  • Oct 4, 2016 7:07pm Oct 4, 2016 7:07pm
Quoting sisse
**FUNDAMENTALS reading warning ...it can get dense so for those new in this field just take it slowly to see if anything start making sense.... For the rest feel free to jump in the topic... <--> --> Lots of key factors clashing and cooking in the background across all fronts in the FX board. We are set for a sharp increase of volatility in the upcoming sessions. -> More details coming out from the ECB front without a clear source of the leaked 'tweet' but is getting clearer and clearer that ECB is fighting 2 fronts: On the one hand, there is concerns...
Personally, I am really not too sure about the decision for brexit myself. But I am not a brit, so no comments.

Fundamentally, I believe PM May plan would be to flood the market with incentives.
However, I have often look at the UK as a financial hub and for key access into the EU. With them moving out of the EU, I just can't see anything positive for the finance sector. Even, if they were to offer huge incentives, and companies to stay, it would only make sense, that primary operations be move into the EU, and only secondary remaining in the UK, that is IF UK remains as UK.
In my opinion, I believe that is why EUR/GBP been seeing a steady rise since brexit, it is simply money moving into EU for positioning of brexit. If so, there might be a second leg in this when brexit happens?? But we are already nearing 45 year lows/high with the cable and E/G. And a 2nd leg, would totally kill the "GREAT british pound".

OR

An early sight for the collapse of the European Union, with UK taking the first swing, DB taking the fall, and other member states draining the ECB, and buba says, that's it. Then again, with that, they are paying nice % back, as long as they stay trap and don't default. But what if a nation default actually happens in the EU. We know Greece is coming back, one day.

What a mess we are in huh.


Oh Sisse, you're a brit right, from memory. What are your plans? Where you putting your $?

Rgds

oops, .88 broken, 2013 highs tested
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #143,832
  • Oct 4, 2016 7:24pm Oct 4, 2016 7:24pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here
Sigh....the bots never go on holiday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,833
  • Edited 9:19pm Oct 4, 2016 8:52pm | Edited 9:19pm
Pharm0r,

I did some scaling. I had a position lat .128x and .1240 and cleared at .1140x which was close to FLIP ZONE. Banked profit and now have the ability to manage REWARDS.

It appeared foolish when I cleared my SHORTS at .0845 and .0980 but I made back all my lost REWARDS.

I now only have one small postion opened at .1230. Risk free. I do not have confidence in Non Farms and would rather postion closer to the time or wait.

Question to sisse or anyone: If Agresssive SELL is for GBP, then is that a better trade for r:r to take over EU? Or, does EU have a better R:R? I have limited capital so would like to postion for the better currency.
  • #143,834
  • Oct 4, 2016 10:14pm Oct 4, 2016 10:14pm
whenever i see the chart my head goes for a 360 trip ..... seriously nothing to do everything is same except the big choppy bars ....

what to expect & what not to ....

just for laughs :

is this Miguel's one .... those who know Miguel's Rocket theory will knew what i am talking about .....

new prediction service from me ..... if anything goes wrong or you got a margin call send to Pharm0r .....

Edit : every pair back to the position after yesterday's news but just the E/u & U/chf .... are out of proportion ..... technically we should be at the same or nearby price after the BS news ..... correct me if i am wrong ..?
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,835
  • Oct 4, 2016 10:28pm Oct 4, 2016 10:28pm
Quoting primejarvis
just for laughs : is this Miguel's one .... those who know Miguel's Rocket theory will knew what i am talking about ..... new prediction service from me .....
where is he...i enjoyed watching his rockets "waiting" to take off (all the time lol)...
  • #143,836
  • Oct 4, 2016 10:30pm Oct 4, 2016 10:30pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} where is he...i enjoyed watching his rockets "waiting" to take off (all the time lol)...
never seen his posts after 2014 ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,837
  • Oct 5, 2016 12:28am Oct 5, 2016 12:28am
Quoting sisse
Today Sterling joining GU triggering imminent break down alerts in [check]... this time which it's potentially the scariest move we ...
Quoting sisse
...... Sterling in imminent break a....closed to the 'tick' to avoid leaving any clear trace open in charts....l ... sisse
Quoting sisse
-> on the short term we have the BOE play via slow down and uncertainty for Q3/Q4. ...
Trading those expectations will unlock the current lows for a break to the 1.26xx [check] handle.
...and I will take that in Sterling (GU). Triple clearing main mid term swing target after the tick to the 1.26xx handle. Superb and simple ride in the Pound since Brexit. Only homerun target in play for the rest of the year but the meat and easy part of the swing is already gone.

Superbly done for those swinging it from 1.50xx or 1.41xx or 1.35xx ...for those who missed the train, mid term swing have only one more leg left which is the final 'kaput' for Sterling ...

NY in full control from today onwards as we have Dollar in play for the rest of the week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,838
  • Oct 5, 2016 1:19am Oct 5, 2016 1:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} ...and I will take that in Sterling (GU). Triple clearing main mid term swing target after the tick to the 1.26xx handle. Superb and simple ride in the Pound since Brexit. Only homerun target in play for the rest of the year but the meat and easy part of the swing is already gone. Superbly done for those swinging it from 1.50xx or 1.41xx or 1.35xx ...for those who missed the train, mid term swing have only one more leg left which is the final 'kaput' for Sterling ... NY in full control from today onwards as we have Dollar...
Nicely done Sisse. Would really love to hear your thoughts on FTSE (UK100), it had a superb run yesterday. I know you spoke about BoE November expectations but when would you eye it for a cheap ticket ?
  • #143,839
  • Oct 5, 2016 1:43am Oct 5, 2016 1:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} ...and I will take that in Sterling (GU). Triple clearing main mid term swing target after the tick to the 1.26xx handle. Superb and simple ride in the Pound since Brexit. Only homerun target in play for the rest of the year but the meat and easy part of the swing is already gone. Superbly done for those swinging it from 1.50xx or 1.41xx or 1.35xx ...for those who missed the train, mid term swing have only one more leg left which is the final 'kaput' for Sterling ... NY in full control from today onwards as we have Dollar...
Good morning sisse,

Thank you for the note. I honestly wouldnt hire any traders for my fund who traded it on the short side from 1.50xx or 1.41xx... This was pure gamble as these levels were seen before the Brexit vote, which means that anyone taking an outright position at these levels was speculating on a totally uncertain, unpredictable binary outcome (black or red for all I know).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,840
  • Oct 5, 2016 1:57am Oct 5, 2016 1:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} But if bad NFP you might be a hero
Did consider that..but sisse keeps pushing that markets trade expectations the majority of the time..would only be staying in the trade out of hope & stubbornness instead of conviction..
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