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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,841
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:02am Oct 5, 2016 7:02am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good morning sisse, Thank you for the note. I honestly wouldnt hire any traders for my fund who traded it on the short side from 1.50xx or 1.41xx... This was pure gamble as these levels were seen before the Brexit vote, which means that anyone taking an outright position at these levels was speculating on a totally uncertain, unpredictable binary outcome (black or red for all I know).
I don't know. I traded it as results came in. Took many stopped out entries on the way up but I got in short that night at 1.5. Worked well for me and I don't feel it was some random coin toss trade. We are always speculating on a 'totally uncertain outcome'. Are you going to trade nfp? Or FED meeting in Dec for a random example? How is that different?
  • #143,842
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:13am Oct 5, 2016 7:13am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} We are always speculating on a 'totally uncertain outcome'. Are you going to trade nfp? Or FED meeting in Dec for a random example?
I am trading all major events as i am always in ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,843
  • Oct 5, 2016 7:41am Oct 5, 2016 7:41am
I guess I look at them as areas to get good entries/exits. Not that the event itself is the endgame, just that they often present opportunity.
  • #143,844
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:01am Oct 5, 2016 8:01am
Very slightly miss but inline numbers from ADP ... nothing to see till NY.

sisse

Quoting workingforex
{quote} Nicely done Sisse. Would really love to hear your thoughts on FTSE (UK100), it had a superb run yesterday. I know you spoke about BoE November expectations but when would you eye it for a cheap ticket ?
--> Itchy fingers here but you know the golden rule in trading: Never ever fight against a CB. Shorter term there is not much to see or do this week until NFP clear or keep the status quo on the rate front in the US.

UK numbers in Q3 held and held good so from the UK side the self-inflicted wound come from the Government and politics until next BOE. For the proper mid term swing the less details, more aggressive and isolationist the UK negotiations come the faster and more dangerous the damage.

--> Without risk nothing beyond a soft pullback will happen until US clear FED and elections. With risk nothing will happen at all until BOE NOV is clear.... what is pretty much guarantee (as for today) the next few Quarters are set to be very bad to say the least...

TA wise fading the current highs is the no brainer entry, however a blind entry right now with the BOE still in play, could be very expensive to even consider the gamble...

Quoting manosk
{quote} Good morning sisse, Thank you for the note. I honestly wouldnt hire any traders for my fund who traded it on the short side from 1.50xx or 1.41xx... This was pure gamble as these levels were seen before the Brexit vote, which means that anyone taking an outright position at these levels was speculating on a totally uncertain, unpredictable binary outcome (black or red for all I know).
--> Sure, I don't thing anybody big or small traded the actual 1st knee jerk reaction on spot (we lost 800 ticks in 1 min 35 secs or so) and would have been impossible to get filled even with the best direct spread in the world.

--> However, the trade 1.50xx (1.498x to be exact) was in play (choose your poison time....) for a few weeks before it play out. Also a remain vote would have triggered the same short entry [as discussed here in detail] on profit taking (trade expectations sell the fact) but with the difference would have been 1.41xx was in play and not the break down to multi decade lows ....

--> If you go back to that epic night, we even discussed and call it live 1 hour before the first result come in for a last 'cheap ticket entry' [i didn't take that one btw], and then after the momentum trade (that was unmissable trading wise ) when results were pretty much confirmed and BOE put a sharp halt on panic sacrificing Sterling as only alternative ...

Quoting sisse
GU completing the test to the 1.50xx handle right on time before the officially confirmation. The end of the UK vote legs in the FX board is around the corner ... sisse
In simple words, agree the ones who caught 1.50xx were not positioning live that night, however the full swing itself gave no less that 6 or 7 options to ride it from 1.50xx before and1.41xx 1.35xx and 1.33xx after for every taste and for every style of trading....

Whatever the case, now there nothing to the upside so far and in the horizon from the UK front in Sterling. BOE will only trigger speed and unlock 1.22 while Dollar will set the ebb and flow in GU via rates until further data from the UK political and economic front...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,845
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:08am Oct 5, 2016 8:08am
Quoting sisse
Very slightly miss but inline numbers from ADP ... nothing to see till NY. sisse {quote} --> Itchy fingers here but you know the golden rule in trading: Never ever fight against a CB. Shorter term there is not much to see or do this week until NFP clear or keep the status quo on the rate front in the US. UK numbers in Q3 held and held good so from the UK side the self-inflicted wound come from the Government and politics........ sisse
Isn't it arguable that these numbers are all pre-brexit based anyway? We've yet to even see the real effect of brexit on the economic numbers....those shouldn't be seen until the end of Q4 and possibly later after official brexit right?

I've already heard the prices of food is tumbling...first hints of deflation. Perhaps since you're in London you can give a "on the ground" analysis as I can't recall where I heard/read that
  • #143,846
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:26am Oct 5, 2016 8:26am
From a strictly macro perspective Q3 number bounce back as the knee jerk reaction was overdone and the BOE threw everything but the kitchen sink to stop panic.

As we discussed pre vote (we will review this back post later in the year) there were 3 parts in a brexit move:

 

  1. The knee jerk reaction [short term] and short lived because of panic that would annihilate Sterling [check right now] and mark a permanent end of the Pound as a global currency [in play].
  2. The uncertainty play [mid term] until article 50 and negotiations [just triggered last week] this is a very tricky one. Lots of politics involved and the more secretive the negotiations the worst. The longer it takes the worst. The more details we get of the extend of the damage in the negotiations, the better or worst (what happen with Passporting, banks, common market, and the 12500 [literally] sectors that need to be negotiated in the divorce.

    1. Right now we are in the political part. The UK government is very aggressive, on a rampage with no plans and a bit overconfident announcing that it will destroy everything that is not English regardless of the impact.
    2. Things will change in the next few months as Germany and France enter in elections.
    3. Trade the 'tweet' first
    4. Trade the outcome of the details especially on the main sectors (financial services, manufacturing, external trade etc) later



  3. The outcome of the experiment of living isolated from the world in the 21st century [mid and long term]

  1. This is too early to evaluate as we dont know fck all yet of the negotiations. What is clear if the City lose entry to the EU markets and the UK lose access to the single market sit tight as we are going for massacre in the UK (and in Europe) and very deep recession for a few years ...

On inflation ...no no no the opposite !!!. inflation is going to balloon (that is the collateral damage of BOE saving the day and Sterling getting destroy). Don't forget that more than 50% of the UK (its an ISLAND with awful weather at the end ....lol) depends on imports (especially in food). The consequences of the massacre in Sterling will be felt next year by the average person n the UK and in a sharp decrease of real wages (check more details in the back post pre brexit) ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,847
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:36am Oct 5, 2016 8:36am
My orders got filled that night. 20 pip spread but filled.
  • #143,848
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:47am Oct 5, 2016 8:47am
  • #143,849
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:53am Oct 5, 2016 8:53am
I dont know much about FA learning a lot from Sisse ... but one thing is for sure that we are not going to see parity and Q4 will be very aggressive atleast for E/u whether its a 1day/1week/1month run ....

the upcoming weeks/month will be very active in case of trading because sooner we are going to see that all micro levels will be raised for the flow ...

Mr. dragi already in the last meeting said that they are leaning on right now on the fiscal policies ... and guess what the damage has already started .... which ever sector we say ....

DB and Lehman Brothers chart will be same ... until now there is no confirmed deal between the both and many of banks are still out of track ...

the more the chart is trying to give false turn around the more drastic will be the situation ,,,,

TA wise nothing changed in E/u ,,, everything same enough
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,850
  • Oct 5, 2016 8:54am Oct 5, 2016 8:54am
Quoting sisse
The outcome of the experiment of living isolated from the world in the 21st century [mid and long term]
http://www.forexbrokerz.com/news/ger...-forex-trading

The UK will be the last great bastion of leveraged betting on the globe. So the weather sucks, no prob, just fly the G6 to Ibiza for the weekend....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,851
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:13am Oct 5, 2016 9:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}http://www.forexbrokerz.com/news/ger...-forex-trading The UK will be the last great bastion of leveraged betting on the globe. So the weather sucks, no prob, just fly the G6 to Ibiza for the weekend....
No-no no disagree...better still have the account in the UK, live in Ibiza and pay taxes in the Cayman ....

The trend started in the US of banning and regulating retail FX while Barclays and co wipe out and fix libor & FX rates by the billions (literally) without the regulators even blinking at it except for tiny crumbs symbolic fines....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,852
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:17am Oct 5, 2016 9:17am
Quoting sisse
...better still have the account in the UK, live in Ibiza and pay taxes in the Cayman ....
while they're giving the finger to the EU they can do the same to the SEC/CFTC too and let me park an account there. I'd love to be able to trade CFD's...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,853
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:20am Oct 5, 2016 9:20am
Quoting sisse
... On inflation ...no no no the opposite !!!. inflation is going to balloon (that is the collateral damage of BOE saving the day and Sterling getting destroy). Don't forget that more than 50% of the UK (its an ISLAND with awful weather at the end ....lol) depends on imports (especially in food). The consequences of the massacre in Sterling will be felt next year by the average person n the UK and in a sharp decrease of real wages (check more details in the back post pre brexit) .... sisse
Thanks again sisse for your continued valuable inputs. One thing I can't get my head around is this cycle of rising inflation leading to CB increasing interest rates to combat it which traditionally has the side-effect of strengthening the currency ...so the prospect (expectation ) of increased inflation & accompanying interest rate increases should also have a strengthening effect on Sterling whenever these situations arise and put a floor under any Sterling drop?

What a great thread & well done to all participants
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #143,854
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:43am Oct 5, 2016 9:43am
Quoting sisse
... {quote} --> Sure, I don't thing anybody big or small traded the actual 1st knee jerk reaction on spot (we lost 800 ticks in 1 min 35 secs or so) and would have been impossible to get filled even with the best direct spread in the world. --> However, the trade 1.50xx (1.498x to be exact) was in play (choose your poison time....) for a few weeks before it play out. Also a remain vote would have triggered the same short entry [as discussed here in detail] on profit taking (trade expectations sell the fact) but with the difference would have been...
I stand corrected, I hadnt see those posts. I had cleared all positions that day in the afternoon because I was smelling something and did not look at the board at all to make sure I will not be tempted to reenter so I did not see any of that.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,855
  • Oct 5, 2016 9:49am Oct 5, 2016 9:49am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I don't know. I traded it as results came in. Took many stopped out entries on the way up but I got in short that night at 1.5. Worked well for me and I don't feel it was some random coin toss trade. We are always speculating on a 'totally uncertain outcome'. Are you going to trade nfp? Or FED meeting in Dec for a random example? How is that different?
I hear you, please see what I wrote to sisse. Following the principles that I learned from years in the markets served me well especially because of the totally unpredictable nature of the event. I believe what we are doing is not speculating on the totally uncertain outcome but managing risk, fundamentally different approaches. And yes trading the NFP or trading the FED decision might come close but this was such a high impact event that it could have easily wiped out any account, so prudence would have called for flat position overnight (if you were in Europe), except if you were trading it live.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,856
  • Oct 5, 2016 10:06am Oct 5, 2016 10:06am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I hear you, please see what I wrote to sisse. Following the principles that I learned from years in the markets served me well especially because of the totally unpredictable nature of the event. I believe what we are doing is not speculating on the totally uncertain outcome but managing risk, fundamentally different approaches. And yes trading the NFP or trading the FED decision might come close but this was such a high impact event that it could have easily wiped out any account, so prudence would have called for flat position overnight...
Gotcha. I was flat going into it. I was in Europe like I am most summers. I traded it live. Was pretty crazy. Felt like riding a mechanical bull. Lots of fun and in the end worked out not to be the massive risk to my account I had thought it would be. Slippage wasn't even an issue for me anyway, just massive spreads. Maybe I got lucky. Moot now I guess.
  • #143,857
  • Oct 5, 2016 10:15am Oct 5, 2016 10:15am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Gotcha. I was flat going into it. I was in Europe like I am most summers. I traded it live. Was pretty crazy. Felt like riding a mechanical bull. Lots of fun and in the end worked out not to be the massive risk to my account I had thought it would be. Slippage wasn't even an issue for me anyway, just massive spreads. Maybe I got lucky. Moot now I guess.
I think in the currencies slippage and spreads impact was minimal because there were a lot of traders around so the liquidity was there. The impact was tremendous in the equities with gaps of about 10%. I trade actively the DAX and I was really happy to be flat as it opened more than 800 points down.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #143,858
  • Oct 5, 2016 10:58am Oct 5, 2016 10:58am
May I ask your thoughts on the following two questions, which I am going also to provide my initial answers in order to have a common understanding of the current context
1- What are the expectations for NFP: overshoot, undershoot or inline?
2- does the actual market behavior tell us anything about expectations: aligned or divided?

My rationale brain tells me that expectations are aligned for an overshoot because of the recent strengthening of USD prior to NFP. However, my emotional side is telling me the opposite!
  • #143,859
  • Oct 5, 2016 11:06am Oct 5, 2016 11:06am
Quoting Fadhl
May I ask your thoughts on the following two questions, which I am going also to provide my initial answers in order to have a common understanding of the current context 1- What are the expectations for NFP: overshoot, undershoot or inline? 2- does the actual market behavior tell us anything about expectations: aligned or divided? My rationale brain tells me that expectations are aligned for an overshoot because of the recent strengthening of USD prior to NFP. However, my emotional side is telling me the opposite!
The answer to your questions is within the latest posts from Sisse .

As for your first question , there is the Forecast which is higher than previous NFP [check FF calender] , also Sisse mentionned that an overshoot or inline would just stregthen hike case as a done deal for the end of the year ...only a "serious" undershoot would count as flop .

As for your second question on market behaviour , also as Sisse mentionned in his FA post , there are clashing forces right now at the market , Brexit case [ article 50 trigger] and rate hike as such an underwhelming 'chaos' in EZ would translate into global fears thus FED fear from hiking ....

For more explanation refer to latest posts ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,860
  • Oct 5, 2016 11:17am Oct 5, 2016 11:17am
Quoting hoom
{quote} The answer to your questions is within the latest posts from Sisse . As for your first question , there is the Forecast which is higher than previous NFP [check FF calender] , also Sisse mentionned that an overshoot or inline would just stregthen hike case as a done deal for the end of the year ...only a "serious" undershoot would count as flop . As for your second question on market behaviour , also as Sisse mentionned in his FA post , there are clashing forces right now at the market , Brexit case [ article 50 trigger] and rate hike as...
Thanks Hoom!
My questions are about the current expectations not about the projected market behavior if we have over/under shoot or inline. But I retain at least the actual clashes forces fact. May I translate it as market is divided? Sorry for being bothering anyone!
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