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USD/RUB

  • #821
  • Sep 23, 2016 5:06am Sep 23, 2016 5:06am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Here we go guys Saudis Ready To Lower Output If Iran Agrees To Production Freeze At Current Levels Of 3.6 Mln Bpd – RTRS Sources http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=608111
Still short..

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #822
  • Sep 23, 2016 6:26am Sep 23, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Still short.. D.P.
First hourly close below 63.50 since July.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #823
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:48am Sep 26, 2016 2:48am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Everything remains the same. some bounce is expected to 64.10 to close the gap. Max bounce expected 64.50. The 63.50 support is very strong, so it will take a forceful move to break it, probably news of an output freeze agreement from OPEC or something similar.
Closed the gap finally today. As far as I am concerned retracement is done. Combining this expectation with the current level of oil and how oil is oversold in the short term, we can now see a resumption to the downside in USD/RUB that will hopefully take us to 62.80. Alternatively for any extension to the upside in the current movement I dont expect higher than 64.48.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #824
  • Sep 28, 2016 6:03am Sep 28, 2016 6:03am
Quoting manosk
{quote} As no one can trust the OPEC members or any other official for that matter, I would say that they are cooking something and despite the whole discussion about not being able to find common ground etc they might surprise the market with some form of agreement and we might see oil popping minimum 3-4 USD. It will be an interesting short squeeze
It might soon get really interesting for the short USD/RUB trade
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #825
  • Sep 29, 2016 2:34am Sep 29, 2016 2:34am
Quoting manosk
{quote} As no one can trust the OPEC members or any other official for that matter, I would say that they are cooking something and despite the whole discussion about not being able to find common ground etc they might surprise the market with some form of agreement and we might see oil popping minimum 3-4 USD. It will be an interesting short squeeze
Very well done Manosk. You really nailed it.

I am flat again in USDRUB for some days sow was missing this nice move. Looking positions again ( As always ) . But it will be during and after retracement when that comes.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #826
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:14am Oct 3, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Very well done Manosk. You really nailed it. I am flat again in USDRUB for some days sow was missing this nice move. Looking positions again ( As always ) . But it will be during and after retracement when that comes.
We just had a big drop and we are right on the support, thinking to go long again?
  • #827
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:25am Oct 3, 2016 3:25am
Quoting rockthepips
{quote} We just had a big drop and we are right on the support, thinking to go long again?
Nope, Still flat. I only trade it to the short side ( bullish Rub ) . There will come an retracement but to expensive trades to be in for my trading style ( the swap against me ) and I am not intraday trading usdrub.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #828
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:35am Oct 3, 2016 3:35am
Quoting rockthepips
{quote} We just had a big drop and we are right on the support, thinking to go long again?
My support as mentioned earlier was 62.80. I would have closed there and waited for another opportunity to reenter short but due to the force of the move and the fact that the oil is charging ahead I dont see a reason to close the position at the moment. In addition as an advice I would never take a long position in this pair because: 1. the general direction is short so it is always dangerous to play for a few pips the counter intuitive position. 2. As I mentioned earlier in numerous posts this pair is the best carry trade in a long time if you take it short. This means that if you go long you will be paying a very high price for the long position and it is just not worth it at the moment.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #829
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:37am Oct 3, 2016 3:37am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Nope, Still flat. I only trade it to the short side ( bullish Rub ) . There will come an retracement but to expensive trades to be in for my trading style ( the swap against me ) and I am not intraday trading usdrub.
Agreed.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #830
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:40am Oct 3, 2016 3:40am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Very well done Manosk. You really nailed it. I am flat again in USDRUB for some days sow was missing this nice move. Looking positions again ( As always ) . But it will be during and after retracement when that comes.
Thanks Earleone! It seems at the moment that any retracement will be shallow if oil continues to be so strong. Except of course if Russian CB intervenes to weaken the ruble...I dont see at the moment why they would do that, but who knows what is going on behind the scenes. I feel that as long as oil is really going up along with the ruble there is not particular reason for them to intervene. They have also shown themselves to be very prudent, so I trust them not to be irrational.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #831
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:56am Oct 3, 2016 3:56am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks Earleone! It seems at the moment that any retracement will be shallow if oil continues to be so strong. Except of course if Russian CB intervenes to weaken the ruble...I dont see at the moment why they would do that, but who knows what is going on behind the scenes. I feel that as long as oil is really going up along with the ruble there is not particular reason for them to intervene. They have also shown themselves to be very prudent, so I trust them not to be irrational.
Oil has more room to the upside. USDRUB is at the extreme with a knee jerk . So for me if I was short I would strongly consider to take the profit. But I am mostly to quick with that for Rubel my history is showing . I also dont think the CB will Intervene. So for now I hope for a nice spike ( driven by USD ) during the week so I can start to scale in to position again.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #832
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:29am Oct 3, 2016 4:29am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Oil has more room to the upside. USDRUB is at the extreme with a knee jerk . So for me if I was short I would strongly consider to take the profit. But I am mostly to quick with that for Rubel my history is showing . I also dont think the CB will Intervene. So for now I hope for a nice spike ( driven by USD ) during the week so I can start to scale in to position again.
I would normally agree with you and the initial plan as posted was to close at 62.80 and wait for retracement. But at the moment I see nice momentum in oil which is a very positive sign for USD/RUB short and additionally on a weekly basis USD/RUB opened below the 100 MA which is to me a very strong signal, opening the way for an easy downward extension to 60.50.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #833
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:39am Oct 3, 2016 4:39am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I would normally agree with you and the initial plan as posted was to close at 62.80 and wait for retracement. But at the moment I see nice momentum in oil which is a very positive sign for USD/RUB short and additionally on a weekly basis USD/RUB opened below the 100 MA which is to me a very strong signal, opening the way for an easy downward extension to 60.50.
Will be nice . I hope you nail this one too and wish you a very profitable trade. I can not take any positions at this level from my trading rules, but if this knee jerk goes all the way it is irritating not to be in position. But what we say. Better to be out of a trade that you want to be in then to be in to a trade that you dont want to be in .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #834
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:59am Oct 3, 2016 4:59am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Will be nice . I hope you nail this one too and wish you a very profitable trade. I can not take any positions at this level from my trading rules, but if this knee jerk goes all the way it is irritating not to be in position. But what we say. Better to be out of a trade that you want to be in then to be in to a trade that you dont want to be in .
Absolutely agree with you. Principles are more important that one trade, because principles will make you profitable in the long term. As I said my trade also reached my targets but due to the signs I see I have decided to let it run. I will also monitor it closely for any change in momentum and will post here my conclusions.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #835
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:27pm Oct 4, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Absolutely agree with you. Principles are more important that one trade, because principles will make you profitable in the long term. As I said my trade also reached my targets but due to the signs I see I have decided to let it run. I will also monitor it closely for any change in momentum and will post here my conclusions.
As an update: My short position has been closed at 62.50 for a very healthy 3.06 ruble gain. The reason behind this as explained earlier is that first I saw oil stalling at current levels and secondly USD is gaining momentum. At this moment it is concentrated on major crosses but it might spill over to more exotic crosses so I prefer to be out. We will see how it plays in the next few days and we will actively be looking for opportunities to reenter.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #836
  • Oct 5, 2016 4:04am Oct 5, 2016 4:04am
Quoting manosk
{quote} As an update: My short position has been closed at 62.50 for a very healthy 3.06 ruble gain. The reason behind this as explained earlier is that first I saw oil stalling at current levels and secondly USD is gaining momentum. At this moment it is concentrated on major crosses but it might spill over to more exotic crosses so I prefer to be out. We will see how it plays in the next few days and we will actively be looking for opportunities to reenter.
Impressing Manosk. Again, very well done and my congratulations.

Are you looking and trading TRY? it is at the extremes for eur and usd. ( I prefer the eur trade since rollover is better ) We should find thread to discuss other nice carry opportunities too since this is the Rubel thread. ( I trade rub, mxn, try, zar, ++ . )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #837
  • Oct 5, 2016 10:08am Oct 5, 2016 10:08am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Impressing Manosk. Again, very well done and my congratulations. Are you looking and trading TRY? it is at the extremes for eur and usd. ( I prefer the eur trade since rollover is better ) We should find thread to discuss other nice carry opportunities too since this is the Rubel thread. ( I trade rub, mxn, try, zar, ++ . )
Thank you Earleone for your good words

I have been trading, and we have discussed in the past, MXN and ZAR but my general observation after years of trading is that to trade these "emerging" or exotic currencies one needs to have a good understanding of the political environment that provides the basis for the movements in these currencies. I emphasize political environment because economics play a very small role in these cases. These currencies clearly move according to the political stability/instability and therefore it is futile for any trader to look at economics to gauge expectations and therefore movement. The reason I say this is that when we consider the political environment in these currencies we realize that Russia has political stability (regardless of whether I agree or disagree with Putin) which translates in support to the CB to do its job. They also happen to have a very prudent CB (the only part of economics I consider in this case) which will do what is needed to support a good financial environment. Consider now Mexico: very weak political stability with big threats from Trump's rhetoric etc, neighboring other unstable countries that can spill over to Mexico. So a very unpredictable environment. I made good money on MXN on the short side but thankfully I stopped trading it because, regardless of where oil was going it jumped from 18 to 19.80 due to the crap about the wall that Trump is telling the Mexicans. Same story with ZAR. I remember back in February I was traveling with a healthy position long ZAR, when I arrive at an airport to find that I was losing 10k because there was some political uncertainty, someone said something, which returned back to normal only more or less 4 days later because it was just words but imagine that could have wiped out your account. I dont like these trades... I am afraid it is the same story now with Turkish Lira. Political instability and uncertainty that translates to currency volatility. I am not convinced that Erdogan has a plan so I try to stay clear of any TRY currency speculation.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #838
  • Oct 10, 2016 4:45am Oct 10, 2016 4:45am
Quoting manosk
{quote} As an update: My short position has been closed at 62.50 for a very healthy 3.06 ruble gain. The reason behind this as explained earlier is that first I saw oil stalling at current levels and secondly USD is gaining momentum. At this moment it is concentrated on major crosses but it might spill over to more exotic crosses so I prefer to be out. We will see how it plays in the next few days and we will actively be looking for opportunities to reenter.
Update on USD/RUB: No position at the moment, looking actively to reenter short but we need to see a min retracement to 62.80 ideally to 63.65. There are 2 ways this good happen: Either through USDX gains or oil weakness. I am not seeing too much oil weakness at the moment (we would need some weakness that would send oil to 46.90) so I think we should see some strengthening of the USD through EU weakness or UJ strength that would make USD/RUB jump above 63.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #839
  • Oct 10, 2016 11:15am Oct 10, 2016 11:15am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Update on USD/RUB: No position at the moment, looking actively to reenter short but we need to see a min retracement to 62.80 ideally to 63.65. There are 2 ways this good happen: Either through USDX gains or oil weakness. I am not seeing too much oil weakness at the moment (we would need some weakness that would send oil to 46.90) so I think we should see some strengthening of the USD through EU weakness or UJ strength that would make USD/RUB jump above 63.
Whoever was still short USD/RUB well done, this is definitely a level that I would have closed the position as Oil reached a critical level at 51.51 today and we might see some pull back.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #840
  • Oct 11, 2016 10:24am Oct 11, 2016 10:24am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Whoever was still short USD/RUB well done, this is definitely a level that I would have closed the position as Oil reached a critical level at 51.51 today and we might see some pull back.
USD/RUB reached the first level where one could sell, at the H1 100 MA, namely 62.68. I would wait as we should see minimum 62.80, ideally 63.10 or even better 63.55. But if you are afraid of losing the train, then open some part of your position here.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
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