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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #25,981
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:12am Sep 27, 2016 4:12am
There is the Sept 16 POC. Hit on the thick.
Maybe further down to 258 (close Sept 16)

246 is the VAL of Sept 16. (see explaination VAL above)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDXM 12-16 (15 Min) 27-9-2016.jpg Size: 101 KB
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  • #25,982
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:27am Sep 27, 2016 4:27am
Weekly TPO chart with levels.

10.231 (Weekly POC of last week of July) is already tested 2 weeks back, but could be tested again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDXM 12-16 (30 Min) 27-9-2016.jpg Size: 309 KB
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  • #25,983
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:30am Sep 27, 2016 4:30am
Possibly DAX is reacting more to fundamentals of the banking situation and not so technical. Deutsche at lowest share price with rumours of a bailout. Perhaps we see some fresh news about this soon?
  • #25,984
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:33am Sep 27, 2016 4:33am
Quoting derekw
Possibly DAX is reacting more to fundamentals of the banking situation and not so technical. Deutsche at lowest share price with rumours of a bailout. Perhaps we see some fresh news about this soon?
Deutche Bank is the biggest bank of Germany, maybe even of EU.
If they are in real problems, it could spread over EU.
They hoped for support of Ms. Merkel, but she said NO WAY. (so far)

DAX dragged the US markets down as well, but they are stilll inside their Y Opening Ranges. On the bottom now.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,985
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:33am Sep 27, 2016 4:33am
Hey Dutchy, market profile aside. Do you think we will see a pop on the upside for SP during the cash open? (Given that cash market is closed when the debate ended last night US time)
  • #25,986
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:40am Sep 27, 2016 4:40am
Quoting dontknowwhy
Hey Dutchy, market profile aside. Do you think we will see a pop on the upside for SP during the cash open? (Given that cash market is closed when the debate ended last night US time)
As said before: My MA lines on US markets are still bearish.
Because of that Overnight pop US markets are in a kind of transition zone.
They would like to go up, but blocked by the EU markets. Specially the DAX.

I can't predict. Sorry. No license for that.

US oil popped Yesterday but dropped 50% of that pop.
Oil is not a support for US markets now.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,987
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:45am Sep 27, 2016 4:45am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} As said before: My MA lines on US markets are still bearish. Because of that Overnight pop US markets are in a kind of transition zone. They would like to go up, but blocked by the EU markets. Specially the DAX. I can't predict. Sorry. No license for that. US oil popped Yesterday but dropped 50% of that pop. Oil is not a support for US markets now.
Care to disclose what your MA lines are for indices? haha
  • #25,988
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:49am Sep 27, 2016 4:49am
I hope to see the DAX to recover to the 10.310, which is the last week low and maybe later on to 10.365.

On the Weekly TPO chart a new pocket is forming up to 10.365, which means there are single TPO blocks (todays) which have to be covered @ some time.
Maybe today. Maybe next week. Market profile doesn't tell that when that will happen.
Your regular charts with MA lines should tell you the direction and MP tells you the possible targets.

DAX has to find and form a bottom somewre @ some point and then work its way up to fill that pocket of single TPO blocks.
The way up is harder then the way down as you could see again today


But very unsure how that Deutsche Bank problem will be solved/handled/digested further.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,989
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:53am Sep 27, 2016 4:53am
DAX Long 1 lot only @ 280 from that Sept 16 POC.

Could still dive to that old Weekly POC @ 232, so light and carefull trading.
Scalp the way up if the bottom is here. Who knowzzzzzzzzzzz.........

The positive thing is that the US markets remained inside their Yesterday O ranges/POC's (so far)
They try to work their way up again already, up to the middle of the Y OR
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,990
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:04am Sep 27, 2016 5:04am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
....Your regular charts with MA lines should tell you the direction and MP tells you the possible targets. ....
Hi Dutchy. Agree with that. Also, trend lines and areas of support / resistance on regular charts are usefull, they are bigger picture.

Dax is volatile, so these areas can be quite wide on daily charts, and when you come to lower timeframes you have narrower zones... so you spot a target, and then grab your sniper (small TF and MP levels).

DAX 240m (3rd touch of a trendline)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-240m-09-27.PNG Size: 143 KB


DAX 30m (a 30 points wide support area)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-30m-09-27.PNG Size: 92 KB
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  • #25,991
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:06am Sep 27, 2016 5:06am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
DAX Long 1 lot only @ 280 from that Sept 16 POC. Could still dive to that old Weekly POC @ 232, so light and carefull trading. Scalp the way up if the bottom is here. Who knowzzzzzzzzzzz......... The positive thing is that the US markets remained inside their Yesterday O ranges/POC's (so far) They try to work their way up again already, up to the middle of the Y OR
Isn't yesterday's POC around 2148? (CFD Price)
  • #25,992
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:08am Sep 27, 2016 5:08am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi Dutchy. Agree with that. Also, trend lines and areas of support / resistance on regular charts are usefull, they are bigger picture. Dax is volatile, so these areas can be quite wide on daily charts, and when you come to lower timeframes you have narrower zones... so you spot a target, and then grab your sniper (small TF and MP levels). DAX 240m (3rd touch of a trendline) {image} DAX 30m (a 30 points wide support area) {image}
Correct.
Only I do not use Minute charts but Range charts.
But at the end the levels are the same.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,993
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:10am Sep 27, 2016 5:10am
We have a big issue with DBK now, and IMO totally artificial pop on US markets, which is a result of a presidential debate .
I understand there are two more debates to go, so this could make some moves that is going to be easy to retrace 100%. Because they are based on thin air, on nothing.
A time to be more picky about entries IMO.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #25,994
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:11am Sep 27, 2016 5:11am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} Correct. Only I do not use Minute charts but Range charts. But at the end the levels are the same.
You use Range bars? I have worked with them on CQG platform, and those are really good stuff.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #25,995
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:12am Sep 27, 2016 5:12am
So far a little bottom is formed on the Sept POC level @ 282.
Lets see if that holds.
I'm still worried for that 10.232 Weekly POC (which was tested already, but still)
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,996
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:12am Sep 27, 2016 5:12am
Moving average monthly work very well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax 27-09-16.jpg Size: 414 KB
  • #25,997
  • Sep 27, 2016 5:32am Sep 27, 2016 5:32am
Quoting StrayDog
We have a big issue with DBK now, and IMO totally artificial pop on US markets, which is a result of a presidential debate . I understand there are two more debates to go, so this could make some moves that is going to be easy to retrace 100%. Because they are based on thin air, on nothing. A time to be more picky about entries IMO.
Yes true, but don't forget, the US up move was killed by the DAX.
US tried to recover on the debat, but DAx was in the way with its down move (for whatever reason)
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,998
  • Edited 6:48am Sep 27, 2016 5:42am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
DAX Long 1 lot only @ 280 from that Sept 16 POC.

Could still dive to that old Weekly POC @ 232, so light and carefull trading. Scalp the way up if the bottom is here. Who knowzzzzzzzzzzz......... The positive thing is that the US markets remained inside their Yesterday O ranges/POC's (so far) They try to work their way up again already, up to the middle of the Y OR
Added 1 lot Long @ 10.290
Closed 1 lot T1 +11 points
1 lot to go
SL BE @ 280 +2 points locked
FLAT last lot +10 points.

Targets up 325/335
350 Last week POC
370 last single today's TPO blocks to cover (if we get there today)

US markets on Y 50% OR.
They need to show now if the over night pop was real or just air (as in the debat last night).
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,999
  • Sep 27, 2016 7:01am Sep 27, 2016 7:01am
DAX Long (again) @ 295

Still bearish/heavy market so counter trade
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  • #26,000
  • Edited 7:32am Sep 27, 2016 7:16am | Edited 7:32am
Oil starts to drop on "no agreement expected" news.
+50 points locked in last lot.

No good for US markets as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL 11-16 (20 Range) 27-9-2016.jpg Size: 135 KB
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