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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #4,661
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:32am Sep 27, 2016 3:32am
Quoting shum
... So, please when you work on D1, first of all take signals in direction of W charts, you can go contra W charts too, but there must be enaf room between price and sma, coz in D1 this will be 50-100 pips.. {image}
What you suggest is another way of trading, but the essence of this strategy is to find the reversal swing high/lows, it has nothing to do with trend for entries. Your recommendation is retracement trading in trend direction.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #4,662
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:33am Sep 27, 2016 3:33am
Quoting shum
my 2 cents about what its going on with this enteres, and whay price hit sl.. look on last 3 pairs for trading from last night. GC,EA,EChf.. we look for signals on D1, sr levels etc, but you guys dont look what hapen with price in Weekly charts of this pairs when signal coming. Now look on this 3 pairs where is the last candle on W charts due to the sma5 on W chart? i mean take the same rules from D1 and aple them on W chart.. coz this rules work on all tfs. exemple on EChf W candle is below sma5, sma5 on W chart start to go down, this mean that...
Although I find it difficult to understand what you are saying, I think you couLD be saying something tgat knocks the nail on its head.
Are you saying if daily cross sma, we must go to weekly and find there is also a cross or have already crossed?
  • #4,663
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:36am Sep 27, 2016 3:36am
Or are you simply saying we must follow the trend of the weekly.
If weekly trend is down never go long on daily and vice versa?
Thanks
  • #4,664
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:37am Sep 27, 2016 3:37am
Quoting josephkee
{quote} Although I find it difficult to understand what you are saying, I think you couLD be saying something tgat knocks the nail on its head. Are you saying if daily cross sma, we must go to weekly and find there is also a cross or have already crossed?
First check Weekly chart. If price is below SMA 5 on weekly, then you look for short trades only on daily.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #4,665
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:38am Sep 27, 2016 3:38am
and if it fails into weekly, someone will recommend to look the monthly chart, this will complicate this system i think... ty
  • #4,666
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:40am Sep 27, 2016 3:40am
Quoting Blackeagle
{quote} What you suggest is another way of trading, but the essence of this strategy is to find the reversal swing high/lows, it has nothing to do with trend for entries. Your recommendation is retracement trading in trend direction. Regards, Blackeagle
Quote
Although I find it difficult to understand what you are saying, I think you couLD be saying something tgat knocks the nail on its head.
Are you saying if daily cross sma, we must go to weekly and find there is also a cross or have already crossed?

ok, guys, in another words, to impruve the chanses(%) of wining trades, if we have for exemple buy signal on D1 on any pair, we go on that pair and look on Weekly chart, and there price (the last close candle) must to be above sma5 on W chart.
you can take all trades like today too, but the chanses are 50%.
  • #4,667
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:42am Sep 27, 2016 3:42am
I traded the system on demo for around two weeks with great success. But as always happens to me :-(, as I started live on last Friday, things are going the other way. So far have 5 losses (430 pips) and no win. May take a breath now. Am considering to avoid all NZD pairs and also CHF pairs, and focus only on the remaining pairs.
  • #4,668
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:43am Sep 27, 2016 3:43am
Quoting shum
{quote} {quote} ok, guys, in another words, to impruve the chanses(%) of wining trades, if we have for exemple buy signal on D1 on any pair, we go on that pair and look on Weekly chart, and there price (the last close candle) must to be above sma5 on W chart. you can take all trades like today too, but the chanses are 50%.
So Shum simply put, follow the trend Of the weekly
  • #4,669
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:47am Sep 27, 2016 3:47am
Quoting josephkee
Or are you simply saying we must follow the trend of the weekly. If weekly trend is down never go long on daily and vice versa? Thanks
no mate o didnt say that, if on weekly chart, we have a room between price and sma5, let say 100-150 pips, this mean that if you have buy signal on D1 chart, you can go on it, but you tp must be not more that this 100-150 pips, coz we dont know if price on weekly chart will cros sma5.. in this case chanses are 50-50% all the time, this mean a risky trade. Yes price can cross weekly sma5 and you can yearn more that 150 pips, but this is what we dont know if it will hapen.. if sma5 have direction up or down, every time is a risky trade to go against it..this is what i whant to say. if sma5 dont have direction on W chart, this men weekly chart is in range, so you can take any direction signal on D1..
  • #4,670
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:49am Sep 27, 2016 3:49am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} ah dont know really. too lazy to look it up. am a swing trader with the trend in mind, so would have a larger SL than with this system. when I first started out with this system, I took too many trades. was not used to drilling down so much on the chart looking at every little candle, but am learning. now I take about the same number of trades per week as Bk8 - what maybe 6-10? bought U/SGD yesterday though, `cos my broker has it on the list. have also some trades in equity index futures, but wont go into it. its better to concentrate on...
how long are you using this system?
are you profitable?
how much do you risk per trade (single trade, not sum)?
thank you
  • #4,671
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:51am Sep 27, 2016 3:51am
Quoting dugie
and if it fails into weekly, someone will recommend to look the monthly chart, this will complicate this system i think... ty
Agree, when people start having losing trades, they immediately start questioning the strategy, because they don't own it, they have not tested it properly and long enough to build trust in the strategy. I've been trading a similar strategy for a long time with great success. This is a winning strategy as long as your trade management and money management rules are in place. Win ratio is not important, you'll have loser trades, indeed many. Hope it helps.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #4,672
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:58am Sep 27, 2016 3:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
{quote} Agree, when people start having losing trades, they immediately start questioning the strategy, because they don't own it, they have not tested it properly and long enough to build trust in the strategy. I've been trading a similar strategy for a long time with great success. This is a winning strategy as long as your trade management and money management rules are in place. Win ratio is not important, you'll have loser trades, indeed many. Hope it helps. Regards, Blackeagle
Blackeagle
I kind of second your opinion. But what I do want to add is it is always prudent to go with the overall trend. Not finding fault with the strategy per se as I think we have a beautiful and simple strategy. Looking for setup that matches the overall trend would also help us not to Overtrade.
Thank you.
  • #4,673
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:58am Sep 27, 2016 3:58am
Quoting josephkee
{quote} So Shum simply put, follow the trend Of the weekly
yes this is what i whant to say..
more than that we must to folow Monthly charts too, where is the position of last candle on it, coz ther mey be a situation when M candle its above sma5, W candle its below sma5, and we have a buy signal on D1 chart... so what to do in this case? well for sure you can buy this trade, but but with risk, coz weekly chart when candle will tuch sma5 will react on this first tuch and its posible go agains to you and hit you sl, and after that go in you direction, and in that second time W candle cross sma5!..
To understand when this can hapen its very simple, just big red news like cash rate, and speaks of draghi or elene can broke(cross) the sma from first tuch(just this news change the trend) rest of red news go in the favour of last trend.. if there is No big red news, your chanses that price will cross sma W its minimum..so a risky trade.
  • #4,674
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:02am Sep 27, 2016 4:02am
Quoting Blackeagle
{quote} Agree, when people start having losing trades, they immediately start questioning the strategy, because they don't own it, they have not tested it properly and long enough to build trust in the strategy. I've been trading a similar strategy for a long time with great success. This is a winning strategy as long as your trade management and money management rules are in place. Win ratio is not important, you'll have loser trades, indeed many. Hope it helps. Regards, Blackeagle
I agree with you. Most of my failures have been down to me learning the system, not following the rules properly, or drinking.
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #4,675
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:04am Sep 27, 2016 4:04am
Quoting jauhar
I traded the system on demo for around two weeks with great success. But as always happens to me :-(, as I started live on last Friday, things are going the other way. So far have 5 losses (430 pips) and no win. May take a breath now. Am considering to avoid all NZD pairs and also CHF pairs, and focus only on the remaining pairs.
thats why i dont like demo. demo acc is like practice, and live acc is competition.
i always use mini live account and op with smallest lot possible
just use MM.
  • #4,676
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:13am Sep 27, 2016 4:13am
  •  jmmn
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Learning while making money... | 647 Posts
Quoting shum
{quote} {quote} ok, guys, in another words, to impruve the chanses(%) of wining trades, if we have for exemple buy signal on D1 on any pair, we go on that pair and look on Weekly chart, and there price (the last close candle) must to be above sma5 on W chart. you can take all trades like today too, but the chanses are 50%.
If I am understanding you well, you are saying that this strategy may be close to 100% of success if we follow it ONLY when the PREVIOUS (not current) WEEKLY CANDLE has closed above/below the 5 SMA.

Example: We want to buy because this strategy tells us to buy.

We should ONLY buy if the PREVIOUS weekly candle CLOSE was above 5SMA (if it is below 5SMA the chances of a profitable trade are only 50%, BUT IF IT IS ABOVE THE CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH)

We do not look at the current weekly candle. only THE PREVIOUS WEEKLY CANDLE CLOSE.

Is that correct? Thanks!!!
  • #4,677
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:17am Sep 27, 2016 4:17am
Quoting josephkee
{quote} Blackeagle I kind of second your opinion. But what I do want to add is it is always prudent to go with the overall trend. Not finding fault with the strategy per se as I think we have a beautiful and simple strategy. Looking for setup that matches the overall trend would also help us not to Overtrade. Thank you.
That's fine. Then you need to define trend for your strategy. Shum's approach could be one. This way, you'll have less trades, maybe a better winning ratio but again what matters the most is how to manage your trade. Because as I said earlier, this strategy tries to find the reversal swing points. Even if you add trend following component to it, you will still try to find the reversal point on daily which is not easy. My experience tells me trade/money management is much more important than entries. Entries are easy and generally well defined. Look at post #1. You'll see a very clear entry rules (except sideway issue, but it's been explained very well by Ghibli previously). Then look at trade management rules. Less clear , different options, grey areas. Why? Hope this helps.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #4,678
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:17am Sep 27, 2016 4:17am
  •  jmmn
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Learning while making money... | 647 Posts
Quoting shum
{quote} no mate o didnt say that, if on weekly chart, we have a room between price and sma5, let say 100-150 pips, this mean that if you have buy signal on D1 chart, you can go on it, but you tp must be not more that this 100-150 pips, coz we dont know if price on weekly chart will cros sma5.. in this case chanses are 50-50% all the time, this mean a risky trade. Yes price can cross weekly sma5 and you can yearn more that 150 pips, but this is what we dont know if it will hapen.. if sma5 have direction up or down, every time is a risky trade to...
When you say a "room" do you mean in the CURRENT W candle or in the PREVIOUS W candle?

This is a different question from the previous one and both answers will be very interesting.

I assume that you say so because your experience tells you to say so.

Thanks!
  • #4,679
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:21am Sep 27, 2016 4:21am
Hello all,

I am very excited to take part in this strategy, aiming to learn a lot and eventually becoming a contributor and help others (someday in the narrow future )

For now I have two questions:

1: I triggered EUR/CHF 12 hours ago after the close of the candle. Did I place my SL correct?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20160926_EURCHF_FirstTrade2.png Size: 26 KB


2: So I have two positions open. The close of trade 1 depends if it is at the end of the day profitable (so if profit => close trade). But what if trade 1 is in negative? For example: the bar closes like above screenshot. Do I need to wait on the upcoming bars until it closes with profit?

Thanks in advance!
  • #4,680
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:22am Sep 27, 2016 4:22am
Quoting Blackeagle
{quote} Agree, when people start having losing trades, they immediately start questioning the strategy, because they don't own it, they have not tested it properly and long enough to build trust in the strategy. I've been trading a similar strategy for a long time with great success. This is a winning strategy as long as your trade management and money management rules are in place. Win ratio is not important, you'll have loser trades, indeed many. Hope it helps. Regards, Blackeagle
ok, look, here are a lot of newbes people, who realy dont know how to stay long with one strategy, so they have questions.. I chek every time this charts..
why?..well ..coz we steel dont have the right tp and sl, you are right that we must dont look for another tf, this will complicate the system... for avoid all this we must to have right tp and sl for every pair! we must to know exactly with what sl and tp every pair will survive in taken all signals for some period( a year), no metter how this signal look, how far candle close above or below sma5.. and not metter what hapen on weekly charts..
so what we must to do? we must to take the last 1-2 years, every pair , every signal D1, and look what was the maximum of profit and maximum of sl for every signal, and this must be made on avery pair. after that we make analyse on this resulates, and take the best tp and sl for every pair, the best mean- most freguent of them...then we look how much pips we can yearn on every pair with this tp in period of year, then we select the best pairs, who realy give good amount of pips in this period..and work just with them..
this is how look a right work system.
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