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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #4,341
  • Sep 25, 2016 9:45am Sep 25, 2016 9:45am
mario777 Yes the red SMA havent crossed the candle yet.
  • #4,342
  • Sep 25, 2016 9:49am Sep 25, 2016 9:49am
Quoting mario777
this is my result of my 1st week trying this system. Only one position each pair. Lets see how it goes next week. {image}
Excellent results...are you trading with your live account or still on Demo?
  • #4,343
  • Sep 25, 2016 9:55am Sep 25, 2016 9:55am
Quoting Filipo1
New signals I see for the opening. Short: AUDCHF CADCHF NZDUSD WTI CRUDE Long: CHFJPY EURCAD EURJPY USDCAD Please correct me if you see anything wrong. All the best and an excellent trading week to all.
EUR/SGD - Buy is another one in my list.

CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD - are big candles..If you are going to stick with the rules, you will have to put a SL which is almost 200 pips away.

Lets wait for the expert opinion..
  • #4,344
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:09am Sep 25, 2016 10:09am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} I have two brokers 0:00 GMT and 0.00 GMT + 3 ... on both 5SMA(0) is crossed... 1. But this is entry into a strong resistance ... 2. Signal candle is very long so to be profitable needs to make more 200 pips For me it is a risky setup ... maybe it will work out maybe not , for me its gambling, guessing {image}
I totally agree ... This is not an ideal setup ... even if candle crossed SMA
  • #4,345
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:18am Sep 25, 2016 10:18am
Talking of risky setups, last week I did not take AUDCAD based on choppy/sideways pattern, how wrong I was...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ts8rOYK4/
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #4,346
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:29am Sep 25, 2016 10:29am
Quoting Filipo1
Talking of risky setups, last week I did not take AUDCAD based on choppy/sideways pattern, how wrong I was... https://www.tradingview.com/x/ts8rOYK4/
Hi Filipo
i dont think you were wrong as this candle was the 15th, the week started on Sunday night of the 18th, correct me if i am wrong
  • #4,347
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:29am Sep 25, 2016 10:29am
XNGUSD looks like a good one for going short. It crossed down the SMA, and on weekly looks like just coming off a resistance. I have never traded this one, anyone has any thoughts on it?
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  • #4,348
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:35am Sep 25, 2016 10:35am
Quoting yonnie
got to plant my veggie garden tomorrow morning, so here goes what I see. candle closed last Friday. dont see any A1 trades, but the most promising: buy E/J - would prefer the close of the last candle to be above the high of the previous candle. plenty of space to go up and will see what the chief decides. buy E/U - last is a small candle, not reaching the high of the previous candle. only 100 pips to a possible resistance of the previous swing high @ 1.1327 sell N/CH - but already well into the swing and only 105 pips away from previous swing...

Having taken a beating on Fri with, in hindsight, ill advised trades I have to say the only one looking like anything to me today is EJ, but don't like the fact that it is stuck well inside Wed's candle....now set that to the side a moment as I've copy/pasted the images of a few of bk8's successful trades to try to imprint some of the 'look-n-feel'. If you look at his EUR/AUD trade example (below) there was a big upwards move on "signal candle minus 3" and the signal candle was inside that range, so shouldn't be an issue. However tonights setup does still look weaker.....based on the amount of 'pierce' I see on my charts for bk8's winning examples, the EJ tonight does not look like a high probability (as yonnie states), so I'll be staying out.

Edit : I don't have the full range of symbols set up so may not be seeing what others see in the crosses/more exotic
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  • #4,349
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:40am Sep 25, 2016 10:40am
Quoting monaghan
{quote} Hi Filipo i dont think you were wrong as this candle was the 15th, the week started on Sunday night of the 18th, correct me if i am wrong
Hi monaghan,

Stricto sensu you are right however on the 19th we opened where we closed on the 15th so the level was still valid for an entry.
For the very same reason I included CHFJPY in my setups list today.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #4,350
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:40am Sep 25, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Filipo1
Talking of risky setups, last week I did not take AUDCAD based on choppy/sideways pattern, how wrong I was... https://www.tradingview.com/x/ts8rOYK4/
IMHO you wasn't wrong,
taking a trade is proces of collecting odds on our side AND looking for reasons to do not taking it...
If you take trade against your feeling about possibly wrong setup AND this trade will work out well, can create a disaster in a future, changing your proper trading behavior. Trading is a game of probabilities .... Was week setup, you didn't take it... case close do not look in a past, look for another setup .... there will be plenty of really good setups, think about long horizon
  • #4,351
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:46am Sep 25, 2016 10:46am
Quoting stu
{quote} Having taken a beating on Fri with, in hindsight, ill advised trades I have to say the only one looking like anything to me today is EJ, but don't like the fact that it is stuck well inside Wed's candle....now set that to the side a moment as I've copy/pasted the images of a few of bk8's successful trades to try to imprint some of the 'look-n-feel'. If you look at his EUR/AUD trade example (below) there was a big upwards move on "signal candle minus 3" and the signal candle was inside that range, so shouldn't be an issue. However tonights...
I think that looking at EJ weekly chart is a clue, because on weekly it bounced off a long term support, here is my weekly chart showing that. Also the retracement Fibo has confluence with the Fibo extension off the high.
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  • #4,352
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:49am Sep 25, 2016 10:49am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} IMHO you wasn't wrong, taking a trade is proces of collecting odds on our side AND looking for reasons to do not taking it... If you take trade against your feeling about possibly wrong setup AND this trade will work out well, can create a disaster in a future, changing your proper trading behavior. Trading is a game of probabilities .... Was week setup, you didn't take it... case close do not look in a past, look for another setup .... there will be plenty of really good setups, think about long horizon
Hi BlackNapkins, you are probably right and I was right according to the trading plan.
My only regret is not to have taken in consideration that the move on the 15th. CS happened right on a BB squeeze... But anyway regrets for a wasted opportunity is worth nothing compared to a loss due to hazardous entry.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #4,353
  • Sep 25, 2016 10:54am Sep 25, 2016 10:54am
Quoting Filipo1
. But anyway regrets for a wasted opportunity is worth nothing compared to a loss due to hazardous entry.
  • #4,354
  • Sep 25, 2016 12:00pm Sep 25, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Hi monaghan, Stricto sensu you are right however on the 19th we opened where we closed on the 15th so the level was still valid for an entry. For the very same reason I included CHFJPY in my setups list today.
Thanks for that, i think its different time zones again
  • #4,355
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:09pm Sep 25, 2016 1:09pm
Quite soon i will be putting a larger sum of money into my account. So far I've used 0.01 lots for each trade on my £100 test account.

I can't expect this sort of risk be acceptable on a larger account, so I'm trying to add to my script i provided earlier, so that that it will display the lot size you should trade based on your level of risk. BK8 recommends that you don't risk more that 5% per trade, so i thought it would be handy to show what the lot size would be based on the stop loss being +/- 15 pips either side of the High/Low of the previous candle.

Some people have an issue with the (sometimes) huge stop loss you require to adhere to the rules of this system, but if your risk is always the same then it shouldn't matter!!
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #4,356
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:17pm Sep 25, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting shimmering
XNGUSD looks like a good one for going short. It crossed down the SMA, and on weekly looks like just coming off a resistance. I have never traded this one, anyone has any thoughts on it? {image}
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/winte...l-analyst.html

CNBC's Todd Gordon just recommended the opposite to what you suggested... let's see who is right...He is long Nat Gas via ETF UNG and he is using call options to effect it.
  • #4,357
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:18pm Sep 25, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting FX-Flux
BK8 recommends that you don't risk more that 5% per trade!
I think he said 5% risk over all the trades together.
5 trades 1% risk each - 10 trades 0.5% risk each.
  • #4,358
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:20pm Sep 25, 2016 1:20pm
"...Risk - Do not take positions more than 5% of account value.."
Read 1st post , if you don't understand something , then , ask a question
  • #4,359
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:21pm Sep 25, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} I think he said 5% risk over all the trades together. 5 trades 1% risk each - 10 trades 0.5% risk each.
yeah so the two trades per symbol would be 2.5% each max, In my eyes a position is an opportunity on a currency pair. Not how much of your total account balance is risked overall on every currency pair.
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #4,360
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:26pm Sep 25, 2016 1:26pm
... BK8 recommends that you don't risk more that 5% per trade, so i thought it would be handy to show what the lot size would be based on the stop loss being +/- 15 pips either side of the High/Low of the previous candle.

Isn't 5% per trade too high a risk, especially when you have over three good signals.
Does your script work with Gold and Silver trades also?
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