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  • #1,321
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:58am Sep 22, 2016 11:58am
Quoting teton
{quote} The big thing for me was the break at 1.3130 (ish) but it is a pattern that's common and was fairly confident we would see at least 1.31xx where I exited most of my position (even for a loss) Now I think that is the swing high. Then again anything can happen! {image}
I think, when it goes lower than 1.350ish its already confirmed the weakness. Thats the level of many prev rebound, no strong rejection means it likely to break lower. You re so detailed, i wont bother to drew something like that. I just notice you re selling. I like how you trade, only slightly dif than me. The area we re looking r exactly the same. I think we could learn something from you.
  • #1,322
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:18pm Sep 22, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting Koop
In my opinion, from the look of the daily and H4 chart, any future up move on NZDUSD does not look like it will be sustainable. The bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart and the slow upward grind (which may eventually form a clear LH) on the Daily just screams to me that NZDUSD is on the brink of a major downward reversal. All we need is a strong fundamental force or conviction in market sentiment...... lol In all honesty, i want NZD to drop..... But in the mean time, the safest best is to just play in between that H4 channel
Just curious why you want NZDUSD to drop?
  • #1,323
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:39pm Sep 22, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Just curious why you want NZDUSD to drop?
It might drop to .69 in short term. Before going to .85 long term. NZD and JPY has outperformed USD so far. But they are not invinsible. Especially JPY, they are very eager to devaluate. Long NZDJPY is good for medium term.
  • #1,324
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:38pm Sep 22, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting Passerby
{quote} I dont know why you close your audanz trade, but i think when the current levels reached it has a good chanche to open up for more. Its the previous bullish move base. {image} Most likely, price will enter that area. Even if its ends in rejection, i think you ll still have time to unload(prolly on better price).
Thanks for the tip. Just now looking at this pair again. I could have cleaned up my account if I'd stayed in, lol.

But I'm happy with how things are turning for me, just need to keep heading in right direction..

Just now looking at AUDNZD again, I think I'll wait for a pull-back, though. The volatility suggests we should see a 50-68% pull back eventually. I'll to buy around there, I think...
  • #1,325
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:01pm Sep 22, 2016 6:01pm
well im trying a new thing, to take just 1 pip, i use more lots, and try to catch 1 pip or less or more. Im trying to figure out how to reduce my risk.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #1,326
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:13pm Sep 22, 2016 6:13pm
Quoting Passerby
{quote} I think, when it goes lower than 1.350ish its already confirmed the weakness. Thats the level of many prev rebound, no strong rejection means it likely to break lower. You re so detailed, i wont bother to drew something like that. I just notice you re selling. I like how you trade, only slightly dif than me. The area we re looking r exactly the same. I think we could learn something from you.
Thanks but I am wrong a lot too, and usually I aim for 10- 20 pips not 100+. I'm really working on getting my drawdown much lower I have a bad habit of trading bigger positions then I should
  • #1,327
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:38pm Sep 22, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting Peruvian80
well im trying a new thing, to take just 1 pip, i use more lots, and try to catch 1 pip or less or more. Im trying to figure out how to reduce my risk.
imho, thats not such a good idea (though your broker will love you)...

i've also been through that kind of thought process on how to 'take money off the table faster and risk less,' but i think you'll end up doing a lot of work and spending a lot of time in front of your screen for little gain.

my feel is that trying to determine the price movement for the next 1-2 ticks is basically the skill set of choosing coin flips; versus determining the price movement for the next 10 x 4h candles would involve analysis that has more consistent variables.

i personally think you should focus on mid-range accuracy and timing improvement and lower your leverage to deal with your risk.

take on the mindset of a 'poker grinder' ...you may not enjoy the feeling at first of just profiting peanuts in the sense of $...but it grows quickly. i once had a run from $3k to $66k in a summer. when it first started my weekly profits were $6, $12, $17...but it eventually got to the point where the weekly profits were $1.1k, $1.6k ...that is of course before i gambled away most of it ;P
  • #1,328
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:45pm Sep 22, 2016 6:45pm
Quoting Peruvian80
well im trying a new thing, to take just 1 pip, i use more lots, and try to catch 1 pip or less or more. Im trying to figure out how to reduce my risk.
reduce risk usually is best if you decrease position size, not SL size. SL needs to be placed strategically according to where you think your trade will have enough room, and still have a chance for success as well as offer acceptable +R.

Why not just decrease your position size, and only take trades that SL is not too big? So, before you take a trade, determine the SL size that makes sense. Then see if you can adjust position size so the risk is acceptable.

For example, if you want to take a trade, and it makes sense to make SL = 30 pips, you would only enter that trade, if you can trade a position size where a 30 pip loss would not be too big of a loss...

btw: my assumption was you would tighten up SL with bigger position size, since otherwise it's not decreasing risk, even if you only try to break even on the trade
  • #1,329
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:14pm Sep 22, 2016 7:14pm
Attached Image
  • #1,330
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:32pm Sep 22, 2016 7:32pm
I like your thread idea, seems to be encouraging others which is nice to see.
Thought I'd chime in about stops for a moment.
Something I do when I am placing a stop on a trade with a larger profit target; in my case 50+ pips, is to have a signal stop.
What I mean Is I only close the trade if I see a strong or specific signal going in the opposite direction of my trade.
Obviously that signal will vary depending on each traders strategy but this method keeps me in trades longer avoiding some of the whipsaw we see in times of less liquidity.
  • #1,331
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:05pm Sep 22, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I like your thread idea, seems to be encouraging others which is nice to see. Thought I'd chime in about stops for a moment. Something I do when I am placing a stop on a trade with a larger profit target; in my case 50+ pips, is to have a signal stop. What I mean Is I only close the trade if I see a strong or specific signal going in the opposite direction of my trade. Obviously that signal will vary depending on each traders strategy but this method keeps me in trades longer avoiding some of the whipsaw we see in times of less liquidity.
I see you have a live TE, did you want to be added to the list of participants?
  • #1,332
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:41pm Sep 22, 2016 8:41pm
Thats right, itthere are many ways how your sl is being touched. We should analize that too.




Quoting Sonofsin5
I like your thread idea, seems to be encouraging others which is nice to see. Thought I'd chime in about stops for a moment. Something I do when I am placing a stop on a trade with a larger profit target; in my case 50+ pips, is to have a signal stop. What I mean Is I only close the trade if I see a strong or specific signal going in the opposite direction of my trade. Obviously that signal will vary depending on each traders strategy but this method keeps me in trades longer avoiding some of the whipsaw we see in times of less liquidity.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #1,333
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:00pm Sep 22, 2016 9:00pm
NZDUSD broken the channel downwards on the H4 chart as expected
still within a range, so it might just be nothing
  • #1,334
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:56pm Sep 22, 2016 10:56pm
Quoting teton
{quote} Thanks but I am wrong a lot too, and usually I aim for 10- 20 pips not 100+. I'm really working on getting my drawdown much lower I have a bad habit of trading bigger positions then I should
Go to higher tf, you ll be forced to load smaller size simply because you need longer sl. And by going to higher tf, you ll have more time to react when things going against you. Even if you only aim for 10-20 pips, you need sufficient sl to avoid spike. The other thing you could do is to open second account and transfer some of your winning to the second account which will be your reserve(it will pile up over time), and withdraw it when it getting bigger than initial deposit. Only use it as a buffet after all position closed in your main account, act if you already make withdrawal. It works for me, it might work for you too.
  • #1,335
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:09pm Sep 22, 2016 11:09pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Thanks for the tip. Just now looking at this pair again. I could have cleaned up my account if I'd stayed in, lol. But I'm happy with how things are turning for me, just need to keep heading in right direction.. Just now looking at AUDNZD again, I think I'll wait for a pull-back, though. The volatility suggests we should see a 50-68% pull back eventually. I'll to buy around there, I think...
Do not revenge trade, audnzd already close to its target. It might not worth that much anymore to goes long, risk for correction getting higher around current level. Just forget it, there ll be many more opportunity in other pairs.

About nzdusd, i think we could agree that its in raising channel. Problem is price tend to linger more in the upper area, this smell like distribution to me, you could try looking at many prev data on any pairs. When price stick too much near upper line it tends to break down and when it stay too much just above bottom line of the channel it tends to break higher.

Another thing is when its linger more in the upper area like nzdusd, the resistance will be stronger than support. Since the denser it get on certain area, the stronger when it act as s/r. Its denser above on nzdusd, and weak support(fractured support all over the place).
  • #1,336
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:12am Sep 23, 2016 1:12am
Quoting Salvo
Hey, I was wondering if you guys have any money management tips other than just risk. As my account grows or I add to it, I have a hard time increasing trade sizes the right amount. In addition to getting use to bigger swings. Anyways not keeping the right amount of capital in use affects the overall return. Ideas, or how you guys handles it? THX!
Look at our PnL in percentage terms rather than the dollar amount might help. If you trade with consistent risk on every trade like 1%, then the swings created by your strategy will be the same as you trade on a smaller amount. However if your accounts started to grow to six or seven figures, then you might want to consider lowering your risk further.
  • #1,337
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:56am Sep 23, 2016 7:56am
Quoting teton
{quote} Nice to see someone has the same view! I'm going to hold off till the NYO and see what it looks like but I'm ultimately expecting it to draw back into 1.3000 to 1.2950 candle. It would be a great way to finish the week {image}
Hey Teton! USDCAD didn't want us in that trade. Went right to target! Bummer
USDMXN looks somewhat the same. What do you think? I'd like to see your analysis.
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  • #1,338
  • Sep 23, 2016 10:02am Sep 23, 2016 10:02am
Quoting Peruvian80
well im trying a new thing, to take just 1 pip, i use more lots, and try to catch 1 pip or less or more. Im trying to figure out how to reduce my risk.

This is pretty much what I do except I target about 2 -5 pips. The downside it is a lot more screen time like pursuit_21 said but its working ok so far for me.
  • #1,339
  • Sep 23, 2016 6:09pm Sep 23, 2016 6:09pm
Quoting Salvo
{quote} Hey Teton! USDCAD didn't want us in that trade. Went right to target! Bummer USDMXN looks somewhat the same. What do you think? I'd like to see your analysis. {image}
Yes quite a retracement from the 1.3000 level but until it can break last weeks highs I will still expect it to head to 1.2950 IMO but always good to take profit from your trade so very well done and congrats . I think this is the retracement leg right now. With the 2 separate spikes up it has left a good opportunity to be short. Its a shame my original target was missed by 3 pips till the second run up but I think I'm still in a good position. I have to look over more data this weekend.

Unfortunately I got caught with my pants down on my G/U trade with to big of trade size for my account but will see what happens the beginning of the week so lesson learned! It would be a hard hit but I'm willing to close it all for a loss.

Ive never traded the USD/MXN pair or even looked at it so I cant give any opinion at all.

I can post a few charts of the U/C a bit later but I think Ill enjoy some wine and catch up on some chart time
  • #1,340
  • Sep 23, 2016 6:37pm Sep 23, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting teton
{quote} Yes quite a retracement from the 1.3000 level but until it can break last weeks highs I will still expect it to head to 1.2950 IMO but always good to take profit from your trade so very well done and congrats . I think this is the retracement leg right now. With the 2 separate spikes up it has left a good opportunity to be short. Its a shame my original target was missed by 3 pips till the second run up but I think I'm still in a good position. I have to look over more data this weekend. Unfortunately I got caught with my pants...
Just to be clear , when I said my position missed by 3 pips this is what I'm talking about

The U/C price spike at 6:30 MST . Waited for the price fractal to form then a second leg up and I have no idea how far or high it going so I look for resistance levels or if price is fading ect, but usually I get it wrong anyway.

There is a very very good chance that there will be a retracement to the fractal then a reaction to the highs and eventually the initial price spike up will fill. So I'm looking to see price draw back into the second leg up and I think right now that's 40-50 pips
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