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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #281
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:32am Sep 21, 2016 9:32am
Great information, thanks Lock! I'm learning a lot from you.
  • #282
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:48am Sep 21, 2016 9:48am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Please note that "sometimes what a market didn't do is more important of what it actually did". (JD) If for some reasons price will break down from here without a test of the yesterday pit poor high (nor the correctiion of current A B period highs) this will be a wonderfull piece of information. A price coming down from such a weak level untested, after all the weaknesses above, could only be an extraordinary weak action. And for this reason an extraordinary opportunity in the case of retracement upwards...Carry this...
Good Lord...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #283
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:50am Sep 21, 2016 9:50am
Quoting itschub
Great information, thanks Lock! I'm learning a lot from you.
You're welcome.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #284
  • Sep 21, 2016 12:45pm Sep 21, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} ..... If for some reasons price will break down from here without a test of the yesterday pit poor high (nor the correction of current A B period highs) this will be a wonderfull piece of information. A price coming down from such a weak level untested, after all the weaknesses above, could only be an extraordinary weak action. And for this reason an extraordinary opportunity in the case of retracement upwards...Carry this information forward (if this eventually will happen ,...
As you see: both yesterday and today pit session poor highs have been eventually taken out after the too weak breakout downside.

Now, all these efforts to take out a so weak level are not a sign of great strength. So even a bigger opportunity could now unfold in the opposite direction, if this test will fail above 2989. In this case, as previously written, weak references downside are: 29465, 28875-2902, 28785 and finally 2865
If instead we will find acceptation above 2989, we could go forward to test 3019 (hb of the move down from the poor pit poor high of 9.19) and eventually the same top of this move down at 3091.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #285
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:33pm Sep 21, 2016 1:33pm
NOTE: acceptation or confirmation above a level mean at least 2 m30 periods closing above that level. So, in this case, even considering the magnitude of this shake out above,for now we do not have acceptation above 2989, because nor I period nor the following J period closed above it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #286
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:33pm Sep 21, 2016 2:33pm
Now we have acceptation above yesterday pit poor high, because we have 2 period closing above it. At the same time all this move up and down (shake out) seems to have removed from the market mainly a lot of weak sellers. In order to have continuation upwards we would like to see price confirming above 30185 and above 30465 (the high of the lower daily bracket)

Anyhow, I'm too tired now, so I'm off. Have a nice continuation!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #287
  • Edited 1:00am Sep 22, 2016 12:13am | Edited 1:00am
EARLY MORNING REPORT

First of all a warning about current situation: I didn't see in the last months nor I currently see any form of partecipation of bigger timeframes in this market. This makes the environment extremely risky, because there is nothing more complex and unpredictable of the behavior of weak hands money, the only partecipants in such a market.
What you have seen in the last days, in a "normal" condition (with the partecipation of more than one single actor), should be absolutely rare. Instead I noticed that this behavior became usual in the last months. So I think it is better to change the approach here in order to remain tuned with reality.

All the move up from the 15 of August, starting from a pit session poor low at 28655 (so from an uncompleted auction downside), was clearly short covering. At the same time, all what you have seen from the top of Tuesday 09.06 pit session poor high at 3444 (so from an uncompleted auction upside) was liquidation. This means that we haven't any serious completion nor below, nor above those two weak levels.

I wrote in numerous occasions that the presence of a gap could be a substitute for the lack of a good low or a good high: but here the poor lows and the poor highs are not the only signs of the lack of completion of these auctions. The profiles are too elongated, full of anomalies. Furthermore the references used to continue a move up or down are always weak, meaning that those who are carrying forward these actions are weak partecipants.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 363 KB


Now, in such a situation a reliable approach could be the attempt to evaluate the inventories (too long or too short) at a particular price level, because generally what a market can do in this uncertainty is to go too short in one direction and then correct its own inventories too short going in the opposite direction untill inventories become eventually too long. And from there start the process again in the opposite direction.

About today:

Tokyo (in Bank Holiday) is now at 30465, that as anyone knows, is the top of the lower daily bracket. Rejection from here means the possibility to come down again in the direction of the low of this daily bracket (at 2795). Acceptation above this level means the possibility to continue higher in the direction of the low of the upper daily bracket at 31185 in order to test it and evaluate if there it could be a further possibility in the direction of the top (35326) of this higher daily bracket or not.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 59 KB


Yesterday pit session left behind itself 4 anomalies(2978-2982, 29915-2999, 3013-3015). It did not solve the cluster at 29465 (09.20 Pit session poor low tagged by 09.21 Tokyo low), nor it completed the auction downside, as written, leaving the ugly poor low of the 15 of August at 28655 totally untested.

Now, all the game today could be played around a possible GB gap higher from yesterday high at 30055. If at GB open we will have a gap upside we could have 2 possible scenarios:

  1. a complete fast retracement of the gap, giving price the possibility to come well inside yesterday GB range (2965-30055) in the direction of its low at 2965, preparing the conditions for a further correction of the 09.20 pit session poor low at 29465 and eventually down to the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and the 15 of August pit session poor low at 28655. For this scenario note that current Sydney low at 30275 and current Tokyo low at 30315 are both poor.
  2. a conservation of the gap, giving price an other substitute for the lack of a good low downside and eventually giving price the opportunity to a further correction of the weak liquidation downside from the Tuesday 09.06 pit session poor high at 3444. In this second scenario the nearest weak references above are: the 09.19 pit session poor high at 30905, the GB gap down from 09.16 (3075-3159) and the 09.15 GB poor high ("clustered" by other poor highs by Tokyo 09.16 and pit session 09.15) at 3248.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 135 KB

Have a nice trading. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #288
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:53am Sep 22, 2016 12:53am
Quoting Lock
EARLY MORNING REPORT First of all a warning about current situation: I didn't see in the last months nor I currently see any form of partecipation of bigger timeframes in this market. This makes the environment extremely risky, because there is nothing more complex and unpredictable of the behavior of weak hands money, the only partecipants in such a market. What you have seen in the last days, in a "normal" condition (with the partecipation of more than one single actor), should be absolutely rare. Instead I noticed that this behavior became usual...
Thanks for the insight Lock
Striving for consistency
  • #289
  • Edited 2:40am Sep 22, 2016 2:27am | Edited 2:40am
Quoting Lock
EARLY MORNING REPORT First of all a warning about current situation: I didn't see in the last months nor I currently see any form of partecipation of bigger timeframes in this market. This makes the environment extremely risky, because there is nothing more complex and unpredictable of the behavior of weak hands money, the only partecipants in such a market. What you have seen in the last days, in a "normal" condition (with the partecipation of more than one single actor), should be absolutely rare. Instead I noticed that this behavior became usual...
Thanks, Lock, for outstanding stuff.

On the upper picture you have composite profile (at the right side). There are dotted lines on it (yellow) that represent higher volume.
Are they (these lines) automatically plotted? if so, where is the composite profile to be picked up?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #290
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:12am Sep 22, 2016 3:12am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Thanks for the insight Lock
You're welcome.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Thanks, Lock, for outstanding stuff. On the upper picture you have composite profile (at the right side). There are dotted lines on it (yellow) that represent higher volume. Are they (these lines) automatically plotted? if so, where is the composite profile to be picked up? Best D.P.
Thanks.

About the composite I'll post asap. I made some mods to it in order to eliminate the auto update function: with a huge amount of data like 10 years of m30 periods it slowed the cpu. Now you have to update it manually.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #291
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:16am Sep 22, 2016 3:16am
Note the sequence Sydney/Tokyo/current GB poor lows: this market is awesome!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #292
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:32am Sep 22, 2016 3:32am
Anyhow I think the USDX is the leading reason for this incredible situation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 35 KB


I attached here the very original indicator for the composite profile with the "dotted lines" at the peaks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 +TPO-Range.ex4   45 KB | 366 downloads
File Type: mq4 +TPO-Range.mq4   20 KB | 437 downloads
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #293
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:02am Sep 22, 2016 4:02am
Quoting Lock
Anyhow I think the USDX is the leading reason for this incredible situation. {image} I attached here the very original indicator for the composite profile with the "dotted lines" at the peaks. {file} {file}
Thanks, Lock.

Best
D.P.

P.S. the market is awaiting for a driver.
Hunting High and Low
  • #294
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:08am Sep 22, 2016 4:08am
Note D period inside C period. Current E is inside D. Full balance: possible breakout from here. note also that price is up and down the GB last 3 sessions bracket high at 3075 (09.19 GB session high). If confirmation below it the target is at the opposite side of the bracket. If rejected below 3075 we could see continuation up to the top (3159) of the GB gap down from 09.16
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #295
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:27am Sep 22, 2016 4:27am
Note that right now GB session is building a possible gap higher for upcoming preUS. In order to avoid it price should come back below yesterday pit high at 30465 before preUS open. In the case of a gap higher from yesterday pit session high, again, all the weaknesses below could eventually be skipped.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #296
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:32am Sep 22, 2016 5:32am
Quoting Lock
Note D period inside C period. Current E is inside D. Full balance: possible breakout from here. note also that price is up and down the GB last 3 sessions bracket high at 3075 (09.19 GB session high). If confirmation below it the target is at the opposite side of the bracket. If rejected below 3075 we could see continuation up to the top (3159) of the GB gap down from 09.16
So the breakout happened ratracing all the initial balance removing the A B periods poor low. Also note that we got 2 periods closed below 3075 (GB bracket high) so we have confirmation below this level. If there is continuation below Tokyo and Sydney poor lows, you know where the possible targets are.
Now G low is tagging 30465 (the high of the lower daily bracket and also the high of yesterday pit session). Remember that Tokyo was in bank holiday, so those who carry the price higher were weaker then normal (and we have a poor Sydney low and poor Tokyo low as written)

Anyway I cannot forget that the gap higher from yesterday GB high is still in place (and it is big) and we are above yesterday pit high. So GB is still building a gap for preUS, right now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #297
  • Edited 8:26am Sep 22, 2016 7:42am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ....Anyway I cannot forget that the gap higher from yesterday GB high is still in place (and it is big) and we are above yesterday pit high. So GB is still building a gap for preUS, right now.
PreUS opened well above yesterday Pit session high with a substantial gap. If this gap will be confirmed by the upcoming pit session and if the gap will not be retraced quickly, we have some odds to skip again the weaknesses below. I know it looks crazy but it is what we have seen in the last weeks.

Note that references above** where if something will go wrong price could eventually come back down, are: 31185 (higher daily bracket low) and 31637 (major daily bracket half back).
If it will get confirmation above them I can only see a massacre upside.
If instead it will not find acceptation above one or more of them the direction is clearly at the opposite side of the lower daily bracket, where all the weaknesses below are.

** a failed test above 30906 could also lead to a reversal but it looks too near considering the possible volatility for today.

I also see a lot downside in the US dollar index. But the correlation sometime could be delayed (or, more rarely, not present).

15:24 +1 GMT C inside bar of B inside bar of A period, extremely narrow range. A breakout is possible from here.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #298
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:30am Sep 22, 2016 8:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} .... 15:24 +1 GMT C inside bar of B inside bar of A period, extremely narrow range. A breakout is possible from here.
here's the breakout. Now testing above 30906. Pit session open with a gap higher.
For now it's an "open drive".
Let's see the possible reaction at 31185 (higher daily bracket low) and 31637 (major daily bracket half back)...if reached by price obviously.
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  • #299
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:38am Sep 22, 2016 8:38am
Inventories from overnight are 100% long considering the yesterday pit unchange price at 3029: All the overnight activity took place above that level. Also Tokyo was in bank holiday.
So all this action above 3029 is particularly weak (note also the 3 poor low in a row made by Sydney, Tokyo and GB sessions).
The only thing that can underline a change in strength is the upside gap from yesterday pit session high (30465) . If it will resist this action could continue higher.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #300
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:52am Sep 22, 2016 8:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} here's the breakout. Now testing above 30906. Pit session open with a gap higher. For now it's an "open drive". Let's see the possible reaction at 31185 (higher daily bracket low) and 31637 (major daily bracket half back)...if reached by price obviously.
Period A for now was not able to reach 31185 (higher daily bracket low). Watch out! This was one of the levels where if something has to go wrong, it will go wrong. We have to stay above it as soon as possible for continuation upwards. Remember also that the only real support for this action is the gap from 30465 to 30925.
Ubi maior minor cessat
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