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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #301
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:11am Sep 22, 2016 9:11am
Up and down 31185 (higher daily bracket low). B period low at half back.
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  • #302
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:13am Sep 22, 2016 9:13am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ... Note that references above** where if something will go wrong price could eventually come back down, are: 31185 (higher daily bracket low) and 31637 (major daily bracket half back). ....
Quoting Lock
Up and down 31185 (higher daily bracket low). B period low at half back.
and in fact it took it out immdiately.

For now it looks like we had automatic sell at 31185. (as easily predicted) Now we are between 2 gaps: the old one from 09.15 (31203-31795) and the new one from today. The old one act as resistence the new one as support. Sometimes this situation leads to a stall. Note that the test above 31185 tagged exactly the base of the old gap, meaning the high of the 09.15 pit session. So it is weak. The problem here is that we have also huge weaknesses downside, so monitor carefully the situation.
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  • #303
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:27am Sep 22, 2016 9:27am
Second test at 31185. 3 minutes to go for the third US pit period. C generally is a tester period and is very important in order to establish the direction (if any) of the entire session.
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  • #304
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:27am Sep 22, 2016 9:27am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} and in fact it took it out immdiately. For now it looks like we had automatic sell at 31185. (as easily predicted) Now we are between 2 gaps: the old one from 09.15 (31203-31795) and the new one from today. The old one act as resistence the new one as support. Sometimes this situation leads to a stall. Note that the test above 31185 tagged exactly the base of the old gap, meaning the high of the 09.15 pit session. So it is weak. The problem here is that we have also huge weaknesses downside, so monitor carefully the situation.
hourly we have the hidden gap of 3134-3164, what is the answer to the question.
But, yes, we have much weakness below. All the day we have low volume.
So we might await for reverse back down,

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #305
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:38am Sep 22, 2016 9:38am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} hourly we have the hidden gap of 3134-3164, what is the answer to the question. But, yes, we have much weakness below. All the day we have low volume. So we might await for reverse back down, Best D.P.
The pit gap down overlaps the hourly hidden gap. So it is even more interesting for price action. If the gap downside will remain untouched we have good odds for continuation upwards even considering the incredible weaknesses below. The problem here is the speach at 19:10 +1GMT. It could create initial stall here before and unpredictable exogenous events leter.
Obviously considering the situation and the narrow range for current pit I will go with any breakout from balance (above or below) from now on.
Best L.
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  • #306
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:53am Sep 22, 2016 9:53am
C inside B. Watch out for a breakout (and false breakout) in any direction.
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  • #307
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:20am Sep 22, 2016 10:20am
So, D period tested below open again (1 pip) then went back to half back. Totally weak hands environment for now. Very risky, unfortunately**. Anyway the gap higher is still substantially intact.

**all the price action from tonight Sydney low could be erased in a matter of milliseconds if only some major timeframe will step in. At the same time, a major timeframe could also see the opportunity to accept price from here and go upwards to remove the infinite weakness above. From this come the riskiness of the current situation.
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  • #308
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:01am Sep 22, 2016 11:01am
This breakout downside started from a back to back high with previous pit session (09.16) high. Then it continued downside from D period high at half back. Also E period is the last one for London (meaning that generally it is an occasion to close positions for daily timeframes)
And we are before this speach. (Personally I do not think the speach for itself could change structurally the situation but it could be an opportunity to act for some smart fox, considering the weakness of this environment)

Most of all price spent 5 periods around open price and this is a clear evidence of a total lack of conviction in any direction.

Finally, as previously written, I decided to go with any breakout from balance, so I'm in this one. But my stops are structurally inside the balance around the middle of it and I'm risking a childish portion of what I generally put in my positions because sincerly I'm very far from being secure about this price action. In any case if the current gap upside will be still in place before the speach I could opt to step aside closing everything, specially if I will continue to see no acceleration at all downside.
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  • #309
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:36am Sep 22, 2016 11:36am
Please note that the upcoming speach will be a presentation titled "Arthur Burns memorial lecture," in Berlin.

So whatever this market is going to do, in all probability it will have nothing to do with Mr Burns
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  • #310
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:02pm Sep 22, 2016 12:02pm
G is inside bar of F.
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  • #311
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:28pm Sep 22, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting Lock
G is inside bar of F.
From G inside bar of F, H attempted a breakout upwards. Note the H high exactly at open price. This market is till ruled by weak hands. If you're buying this, the structural SL are just inside G period. And your possible initial targets are clearly at the top of the pit session where there is the TAG of a previous pit session high, plus the low of the upper daily bracket.

...if for some reason it will fail upwards, coming back inside G period, the initial target is at the opposite side of the little balance made by G period.
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  • #312
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:41pm Sep 22, 2016 12:41pm
"I"period tagged half back: again weak hands here, automatic sell...Very weak.
If we are not going to see some acceleration here, it could also finish as a common balance session.
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  • #313
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:49pm Sep 22, 2016 12:49pm
Current POC is 6 letter wide right now. It will be difficult to see elongation of this profile and very difficult to see a migration of this POC from its current location. And price is still up and down open: 7 periods tagged it or spent time over it.
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  • #314
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:56pm Sep 22, 2016 12:56pm
Well, I think I'm going to call it a day. Have a nice continuation.

PS: if the breakout will fail (as it looks like) it will be with a retracement starting from current HB + round 3100. So it should be a weak move downside, but eventually down to the bottom of the current gap higher.
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  • #315
  • Sep 23, 2016 12:17am Sep 23, 2016 12:17am
Quoting Lock
Well, I think I'm going to call it a day. Have a nice continuation. PS: if the breakout will fail (as it looks like) it will be with a retracement starting from current HB + round 3100. So it should be a weak move downside, but eventually down to the bottom of the current gap higher.
Well I woke up and we are 3 pips below "the current gap higher". Fine. Let's prepare a fast report for today.
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  • #316
  • Edited 12:59am Sep 23, 2016 12:33am | Edited 12:59am
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday GB opened with a gap higher from the day before after a Tokyo+Sydney very weak action upside (made during Tokyo bank holiday).
GB session, preUS and Pit session continue higher in order to test the low of the higher daily bracket at 31185, as supposed in the yesterday early morning report.

Quoting Lock
EARLY MORNING REPORT ...About today: Tokyo (in Bank Holiday) is now at 30465, that as anyone knows, is the top of the lower daily bracket. ... Acceptation above this level means the possibility to continue higher in the direction of the low of the upper daily bracket at 31185 in order to test it and evaluate if there it could be a further possibility in the direction of the top (35326) of this higher daily bracket or not.
The test failed, just for one pip (that is a weak test as written), and from that level price start to liquidate all the action upside from night. Eventually tagging the Tokyo poor low from yesterday.
Current Tokyo low is consequently extraordinary weak right now.

If GB will open around here we could have a further gap downside, meaning the possibility for an island reversal for the yesterday GB session. In this case price could continue lower down to the pit poor low from 09.20 at 2946 (29458) and eventually after pit open, down again to the double pass pit gap downside and the pit session poor low from the 15 of August at 28655.

In any case, even in the absence of a GB gap down, if price will open around here, perhaps inside yesterday GB session, we have good odds to come down again and correct the yesterday Tokyo and Sydney poor lows at least. This could maybe happen after some correction of current Tokyo session liquidation. Or at the opposite it could correct the Sydney/Tokyo poor lows and then retrace upside in the direction of a further test at 31185.

As written the test at 31185 was weak. So if for some reason the 2 scenarios just edited will not unfold (rare eventuality but anyhow possible) we have the possibility to make an other immediate test upside at that level without any correction below. But If this further scenario will occur without a substantial correction of yesterday Sydney and Tokyo session poor lows, the weakness left below will be a pretty sure traget next days.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #317
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:18am Sep 23, 2016 1:18am
An important note about current price location: we are exactly at the main POC of this zone (3039). To evade this zone volume is needed. So if we will not have enough volume in any particular direction we have to imagine a possible balance up and down this level. If instead we have enough volume (meaning conviction towards up or down) we have to expect a directional consistent price action from here.
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  • #318
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:34am Sep 23, 2016 1:34am
Yesterday Tokyo poor low corrected by current Tokyo action. Sydney poor low still in place. But watch out! The weakest part of the yesterday overnight action was after Tokyo open (meaning all the session when Tokyo banks were closed) Sydney acted as always at its open. So Sydney poor low is very weak, obviously, but not as weak as it was the yesterday Tokyo poor low.

Note also that the current minor daily bracket (09.20 low to 09.22 high) half back is at 3033, right above yesterday Sydney low. You have just seen automatic buy at this level.

So for continuation downside we need to see GB session confirming below it. If not, meaning if the yesterday GB gap higher will continue to support price, we could have a retrace upside.
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  • #319
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:44am Sep 23, 2016 1:44am
subscribe for this thread.....

thanks mr. Lock....
  • #320
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:49am Sep 23, 2016 1:49am
Quoting lolik79
subscribe for this thread..... thanks mr. Lock....
You're welcome Lolik.
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