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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #25,821
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:11am Sep 22, 2016 3:11am
Same for the YM/DOW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-16 (30 Min) 22-9-2016.jpg Size: 84 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,822
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:23am Sep 22, 2016 3:23am
Quoting dontknowwhy
Hi Dax, I do not see any gaps to be filled (below 10621, I'm using CFD prices). Only daily / weekly POC lines upwards. Does this mean there's more upside bias than downside bias?
If the markets are strrong like now they look for upper levels/zones like POC's
Weekly POC's are stronger then Daily POC's

On the Daily chart we have now single TPO blocks down from 617 to 570 due to this rally. Fast traded area's

Market Profile or TPO charts do not tell if the market is stong up or down.
You can see that on your regular charts with the right MA lines.
It simply tells which levels/zones are traded most at a certain time (day or week day or month)
So when the market is strongly up like now, traders are looking for the upper frequent traded zones such as the 700 on the Weekly chart.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,823
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:37am Sep 22, 2016 3:37am
Quoting dontknowwhy
Hi Dax, I do not see any gaps to be filled (below 10621, I'm using CFD prices). Only daily / weekly POC lines upwards. Does this mean there's more upside bias than downside bias?
Because of the fast up move, you see single TPO blocks down to 573 on Daily (left) and Weekly down to 530 (right) TPO charts.
Once found the top, price needs to get down to fill these Gaps or Pockets again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX Daily Weekly Spt 22.JPG Size: 162 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,824
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:56am Sep 22, 2016 3:56am
DOW struggled to get past R1 with DAX reaching R2 around the same time... maybe a drop back pre USA open with the bulls returning after EU lunch.
Que Sera
  • #25,825
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:23am Sep 22, 2016 4:23am
Strange, because according to my calculation we should have seen 475 at least today.
Hmmmmm.
  • #25,826
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:33am Sep 22, 2016 4:33am
Quoting attilafx
Strange, because according to my calculation we should have seen 475 at least today. Hmmmmm.
The day is not over and it is thursday lol
No serious where do you base your calculation on
Fibonacci levels ? They tend to get more agressive in a stong trend
More staircase like say for example first set up 61 next 50 next 76
Or markets go in extensions without a pullback at all when very agressive
  • #25,827
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:43am Sep 22, 2016 4:43am
Quoting wbemsms
{quote} The day is not over and it is thursday lol No serious where do you base your calculation on Fibonacci levels ? They tend to get more agressive in a stong trend More staircase like say for example first set up 61 next 50 next 76 Or markets go in extensions without a pullback at all when very agressive
No, I don't use fib levels or what so ever.
Just looking at the previous day.
  • #25,828
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:07am Sep 22, 2016 5:07am
Time to turn the ship around will not happen at once but looking for shorts back to 520 and then swing long
  • #25,829
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:43am Sep 22, 2016 5:43am
Quoting wbemsms
Time to turn the ship around will not happen at once but looking for shorts back to 520 and then swing long
Yep, but I think 530/540 Swing long. (Last week high)
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,830
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:09am Sep 22, 2016 6:09am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
This is the possible up target of the ES (S&P) @ 2165.00 Could even go further to 2174/75 which is the 2 weeks back Weekly POC. When it founds it top, the ES has to go down again to fill the Gap/Pocket @ 2150.00 zone. First it will meet Resistance @ 2155 TPO peak and last week High {image}
DOW/S&P/DAX reached their 2 Weeks old WEEKLY VWAP POC's.
Lets see if these levels make any sence. They are new to me.

The traditional WEEKLY POC's of each markets (which POC's I always use) are a little higher.

S&P normal WEEKLY POC @ 2175.00
DOW normal WEEKLY POC @ 18.405
DAX normal WEEKLY POC @ 10.700
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,831
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:11am Sep 22, 2016 6:11am
It looks like they want that 685 first or even higher should have hold on damn thursday
  • #25,832
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:13am Sep 22, 2016 6:13am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
...... Market Profile or TPO charts do not tell if the market is stong up or down. You can see that on your regular charts with the right MA lines. ...
Absolutely... Here is one example, of today price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-ema10.PNG Size: 97 KB


This is a 15m chart, pay attention to the ema10 and price have stayed above it all the time. You can use sma20 also (bolinger bands median line).
That is some conventional "wisdom", how to use certain ema or sma to determine the strenght of the move.

For US Markets, there are some other indicators as well, called "market internals" such as TICK, ADD and VOLD.
TICK = Nyse tick - ratio between all upticks/downticks
ADD = ratio between advancing and declining stocks
VOLD = ratio between up volume (volume in advancing stocks) vs down volume. Also known as "market breath", the slowest of them.
TICK is the fastest indicator. These internals i use to judge if it is a trend day or not.


Trend days and VOLD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VOLD-example.PNG Size: 59 KB


I am learning to use them, I am no expert...
(There is a show every day with 2 guys that use internals every day. Shadow Trader on tastytrade.)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #25,833
  • Edited 6:27am Sep 22, 2016 6:14am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting wbemsms
It looks like they want that 685 first or even higher should have hold on damn thursday
Great possibility.
We have to let this up move rolling out untill it loses steam.
The higher it goes, the deeper it can fall again.
Should be stupid to fight it

This rate hike is on the table in a few months again. Elections earlier.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,834
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:22am Sep 22, 2016 6:22am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} Great possibility
Taking a day off dutchy?
  • #25,835
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:30am Sep 22, 2016 6:30am
Quoting wbemsms
{quote} Taking a day off dutchy?
No I keep following it.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,836
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:32am Sep 22, 2016 6:32am
S&P wants to close the GAP of Sept 8 @ 2170.50 / GAP closed

DAX on its normal Weekly POC @ 700 (2 Weeks back Weekly POC)
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,837
  • Edited 6:58am Sep 22, 2016 6:43am | Edited 6:58am
DAX Scalp short @ 686
Maybe down to 655?

T1 +8 points

Tight SL.
Still strong but I expect a little pull back ahead of EUREX close.

Naked Daily POC Sept 8 above @ 730. Could see a push up there.

Many shorts placed/taken in this zone.
Market makers are gone kill them all I think. (depends how far away your SL is ofcourse)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDXM 12-16 (15 Min) 22-9-2016.jpg Size: 51 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #25,838
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:52am Sep 22, 2016 6:52am
Dax short 10,698 CFD, stop @ 10,710
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #25,839
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:54am Sep 22, 2016 6:54am
SPX cash index has a gap around 2181

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-cash-gap.PNG Size: 63 KB


that is around 2174 on /ES
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #25,840
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:58am Sep 22, 2016 6:58am
Quoting stylinex
Today is the famous Thursday reversal day. Maybe up first followed by a reversal..
Looks like no reversal today but that big pop sure did kick in that I had expected earlier on this week. A bit late to
kick in but it did finally kick in.
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