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1 year profitable trading goal

  • #1,221
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:44am Sep 19, 2016 11:44am
Quoting Salvo
Benaiah! What a great forum! I took a couple years off because I was so frustrated after so many years of studying and not being profitable. This spring I came back and after a couple months I found something that worked for me. I'm tracking my progress and rewarding myself with deposits into my trading account as I go. I'll fire up my Trade Explorer and get it in my signature. Thanks!!
Okay, great! Let me know when you're ready...
  • #1,222
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:47am Sep 19, 2016 11:47am
Quoting benaiah
But also, risk is relative to one's confidence, which is built on success rate and length of time trading.
exactly .. but that is also a reason why i personally do not have a clean track record .. i keep saying "risk 2% per trade" .. but that is not really true.

i try to have never more then 2% exposed to the market ..
which mainnly means .. if i move the stoploss to Breakeven .. i can risk another 2% if the trade is still open.

but in most cases i decide about the risk based on the setup itself.
as example if the structure is like in the textbook (thats why i like the Asia session) .. sure .. All-in

but in EU and US session .. its more like 0.75-1% at a time and if another great setup comes along on another chart .. i still have the left over 1-1.25% to go.

i consider myself a newbie on online trading with less than 2 years experience ..
i keep remembering my trading past back in Germany .. where i had to call up the broker to place a trade ... 1 day slippage = totally normal .. haha
today everyone is bitching about 2 pips .. but yes i understand that this is somethings reflects bad on a short term trade as well ..
plus the cost of the trade itself .. but then 50% from somethings is better as 100% of nothing .. and its not like i have build somethings physical and have to sell it cheaper.

but thats maybe just me excusing myself about not having enough knowledge yet about technical analytics
  • #1,223
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:48am Sep 19, 2016 11:48am
Quoting Salvo
Benaiah! What a great forum! I took a couple years off because I was so frustrated after so many years of studying and not being profitable. This spring I came back and after a couple months I found something that worked for me. I'm tracking my progress and rewarding myself with deposits into my trading account as I go. I'll fire up my Trade Explorer and get it in my signature. Thanks!!

I see you have your TE ready to go. Added you to the list. Welcome!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 1 Year Profit Ability.pdf   59 KB | 408 downloads
  • #1,224
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:52am Sep 19, 2016 11:52am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} cutting you off there .. because thats something i have really a genuine interest in .. would you care to elaborate a litte bit more about this? yes this is all based on the trading style my personal thinking (was/is) simply if i risk 2% on a 50 pip move is just faster in the pit that risking 2% on a 500 pip move. so for the sake of the argument, lets just assume the RR is 1:1 in both scenarios, would your argument then still be valid ? as for anything else i totally agree .. specially about scalping which is of course overkill with 2% as...
IMHO, faster doesn't always means more profitable. In theory, if we have the same positive expectancy in two strategies, the one which played out more often will generates more profits but my experience is that theory is hardly practical. I found that a strategy that trades longer term, they typically generates higher R:R like long term trend following, 5R, 10R could be normal while scalping strategy tends to have less than 1R (but their high win rate compensates their low R:R). When losing streaks come, the losses will accumulate much faster as well and the psychology part will be hard to cope with which in turns affects our trading performance.

Whether we are just starting to have some consistent profits or those old traders that have 30 years of trading experience under their belt, we are likely going to make mistakes from time to time, and that's what cause performance gap. If a day trader risking 2%, when shit hits the fan, that could cause some emotional decisions during the heat which is likely to cause mistakes and widen the performance gap. I guess I goes a little too far... There's more than just R:R, win rate, risk % that affects our trading, but starting out with these few parameters is a good start.
  • #1,225
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:53am Sep 19, 2016 11:53am
Dears
i want to be a part of this challange if you allow.
i will be the winner
regards
gh
  • #1,226
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:59am Sep 19, 2016 11:59am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} would be interested in further response from Alhpa8. But also, risk is relative to one's confidence, which is built on success rate and length of time trading. If someone trades for 6 months to year an NEVER loses more than 5 trades in a row (with good win rate and +R, i.e. successful trading), they can comfortably risk 5% and be confident their worse draw-down will be -25% (approximate, but actual draw-down would be in the stats). I someone only trades for a a few weeks or months, I mean who knows what their worst losing streak might be?...
If our strategy is based on technical, we can start of with proper backtesting, that will give us some base but nothing beats real experience..
  • #1,227
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:12pm Sep 19, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} If our strategy is based on technical, we can start of with proper backtesting, that will give us some base but nothing beats real experience..
yea, since real experience with real account money truly tests the emotional affect on our trading decisions...
  • #1,228
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:16pm Sep 19, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting Alpha8
If a day trader risking 2%, when shit hits the fan, that could cause some emotional decisions during the heat which is likely to cause mistakes and widen the performance gap.
it DOES !! .. (talking from first-hand experience)
I did cut 2 years ago a 6k account in half as a result of emotional decision making.

i introduced then another variable to my day trading, which is a "per-term-stop-loss"
where for me as a day-trader the term is simply the trading day. I write on a whiteboard my target and stop loss in the account currency as my last action of the day
so in the morning .. these numbers have much less emotional relevance than they had the day before.

if I hit the stop loss value .. I'm done for today. update the numbers for tomorrow and shut down the trade computer.
that strategy working pretty good since then.

the target is something I do ignore ... it's just an ego booster ... but I try to ignore it as much as possible as it leads to trading the P/L instead of the setups, and that leads to making stupid decisions or seeing things that are not really there. a devils-circle

my target is 5% sounds really great as a goal .. (i usually reach it as well) ... that gives me the confidence benaiah did mention.
as its just 2.5 "all in trades" .. but well, in reality, my overall performance is by about 6% a year instead ... still doing too many stupid things.
  • #1,229
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:28pm Sep 19, 2016 12:28pm
I'm trading GBPJPY (selling) and AUDUSD (buying) at the moment. Let's see how it plays out.. =)

I trade a bit risky, but I accept the consequences... You guys can follow my live stream on https://www.youtube.com/user/th3b0y/live
Live stream trading: youtube . com/user/th3b0y/live
  • #1,230
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:39pm Sep 19, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I see you have your TE ready to go. Added you to the list. Welcome! {image}
Thank you! I look forward to sharing the journey with you guys. I don't have close friends that are serious about trading, (they play) so I am glad to meet up with some like minds that are serious about building a track record!
  • #1,231
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:48pm Sep 19, 2016 12:48pm
Welcome, who joined us. So how is everyone waiting this very interesting Wednesday? I am actually taking half day job day off to trade. I am bretty sure that i do some kind mistake like last time. But time will tell.

EU: i am looking to 1.09 region to long it on longer TF. Same with Gold but from 1250 (1170).
  • #1,232
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:06pm Sep 19, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting ghussain
Dears i want to be a part of this challange if you allow. i will be the winner regards gh
You are welcome to join. Please make sure you've read the rules in post #1.

I've also updated the list of participants in Post #1...
  • #1,233
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:12pm Sep 19, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting Mr.Dan
Welcome, who joined us. So how is everyone waiting this very interesting Wednesday? I am actually taking half day job day off to trade. I am bretty sure that i do some kind mistake like last time. But time will tell. EU: i am looking to 1.09 region to long it on longer TF. Same with Gold but from 1250 (1170).
Your broker is a scammer. They didnt close my short $10 below my tp on gold, and often close my trade before even sl touch. Lost around $7k there. Initially they seems good, when you in profit for some times spread start widen and they starts playing with your sl/tp. They didnt even respond to my email.
  • #1,234
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:14pm Sep 19, 2016 1:14pm
Quoting ghussain
Dears i want to be a part of this challange if you allow. i will be the winner regards gh
Sorry, misspelled your user name, it's corrected now...
  • #1,235
  • Sep 19, 2016 3:30pm Sep 19, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting Passerby
{quote} Your broker is a scammer. They didnt close my short $10 below my tp on gold, and often close my trade before even sl touch. Lost around $7k there. Initially they seems good, when you in profit for some times spread start widen and they starts playing with your sl/tp. They didnt even respond to my email.
Interesting, to me it seems good. Been with them since 2008 and AdmiralMarkets HQ is 10 km away. Spreads were bad but they keep lowering it all the time. Just lowered CFD spreads 20%. Will see what future brings us.
  • #1,236
  • Sep 19, 2016 5:26pm Sep 19, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting Mr.Dan
Welcome, who joined us. So how is everyone waiting this very interesting Wednesday? I am actually taking half day job day off to trade. I am bretty sure that i do some kind mistake like last time. But time will tell. EU: i am looking to 1.09 region to long it on longer TF. Same with Gold but from 1250 (1170).
I spent some time on a brokerage desk as well as a mid-tier bank's trading floor back in 2006-2008. Wednesday's setup looks like a ripe time for traders (and/or robots) to 'play' with the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see some whips and stop hunts as liquidity dries up and try and use the opportunity to get a better entry.

My suggestion would be to only trade the news release if you have a conviction on direction and a healthy profit buffer that you're willing to risk -- if not, its plenty profitable to trade the 'post-mortem' of a news release...which is a majority of what my experiment on cable is about.

Either way...best of trading to you all (in the spirit of sharing, my 'whip range' for wednesday is 1.2950 - 1.3150)
  • #1,237
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:09am Sep 20, 2016 4:09am
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} I spent some time on a brokerage desk as well as a mid-tier bank's trading floor back in 2006-2008. Wednesday's setup looks like a ripe time for traders (and/or robots) to 'play' with the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see some whips and stop hunts as liquidity dries up and try and use the opportunity to get a better entry. My suggestion would be to only trade the news release if you have a conviction on direction and a healthy profit buffer that you're willing to risk -- if not, its plenty profitable to trade the 'post-mortem' of a...

Pursuit, I'v always wondered, and this goes out to Ben too...

Why exactly do you guys prefer loading up multiple positions probably with the same small lot sizes instead of summing up all the positions into One with a larger lot size? and do you do it when the price is going against you and you see it as an opportunity to add at better prices or you only do it when it "seems" price is going in your favour?
  • #1,238
  • Edited 5:25am Sep 20, 2016 5:11am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting Koop
{quote} Pursuit, I'v always wondered, and this goes out to Ben too... Why exactly do you guys prefer loading up multiple positions probably with the same small lot sizes instead of summing up all the positions into One with a larger lot size? and do you do it when the price is going against you and you see it as an opportunity to add at better prices or you only do it when it "seems" price is going in your favour?
Because sometimes you could be wrong, but you tend to got better prices when enter early. After you saw confirmation, you put another position(in most case buy higher or sell lower). Even my algo do that, its kinda averaging risk. I think almost everyone do that.

And for me, when my scenario didnt work. I would exit at better price minimizing damage. This is what I do this week managing the position taken by my algo, i dont always do this just because im around and sure about what im doing. An example is, i expect price accelerate from this point. If its not, i ll look an exit at best price i could find. For me its better to be safe than sorry, and I dont like to hold too long into losing position i just not comfortable with it. Sometimes when its got too dangerous, i ll exit at any price and close my terminal. Most of my time when i doing manual trade is waiting for an entry, often i missed it after waiting for so long. That why im not into manual trading too much.
  • #1,239
  • Sep 20, 2016 5:50am Sep 20, 2016 5:50am
Quoting Koop
{quote} Pursuit, I'v always wondered, and this goes out to Ben too... Why exactly do you guys prefer loading up multiple positions probably with the same small lot sizes instead of summing up all the positions into One with a larger lot size? and do you do it when the price is going against you and you see it as an opportunity to add at better prices or you only do it when it "seems" price is going in your favour?

personally...i'm just not that good at trading. i've never done well at picking bottoms and tops or choosing exact points for reversals.

so to compensate i have a certain amount of leverage i plan to use per correlated position and a certain area in which i think the market will find supply or demand. when it reaches that area i will then try to slowly test the waters and see if i'm right and if price action seems like it is confirming my view or not.

i admire people who can pick the change of trends or trade on the wicks and tails, i'm just not one of them.
  • #1,240
  • Sep 20, 2016 6:03am Sep 20, 2016 6:03am
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} Either way...best of trading to you all (in the spirit of sharing, my 'whip range' for wednesday is 1.2950 - 1.3150)
Re Cable: If we enter 1.2950 and reject, my view will shift to a consolidation before fomc statement...possibly equilibrium area since brexit is the 1.3170 - 1.3114 range; for some it may be monthly and weekly pivots.
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