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  • #1,201
  • Sep 19, 2016 9:57am Sep 19, 2016 9:57am
What do you guys think will happen to GBPJPY ?
Live stream trading: youtube . com/user/th3b0y/live
  • #1,202
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:08am Sep 19, 2016 10:08am
Quoting nullx8
{quote}longer exposal means simply longer waiting to place the next trade (unless you move stop to BE, which is in most cases not such a good idea *unless you riding a large trend)) just some politican saying something stupid .. and your stop is blown plus a few pips slipage.
Longer waiting time doesn't means bad idea even though we are riding shorter trend. There's a lot of misconception among we traders that goes something like somehow a politician could easily blow through our stops easily when we hold our trade longer. If a trader is holding for the long term and having a few hundred pips of stop loss, it's hard for price (especially in the currency market) to blow through your stops that easy and even if it does blow through our stop with slippage, the few pips of slippage would be very small to cause any scar on our account while if our stop loss is just 5pips, 5pips of slippage could mean doubling our loss. Besides, traders that hold for the longer term will usually have a lot of time to look through important events like the BREXIT, SNB, etc. and mange their position accordingly. Just my 2cents though

Quoting nullx8
{quote}as for the pips its the same thing ... 10 pips are much more easy reached as 100. i risk 2% on each trade. no matter how far SL goes .. its just a matter of position size. on 50 pip stoploss i may can buy only 1 lot, but on a 5 pip stoploss i can buy 10 lots having the same financial risk. the cost (if i loose) will be slightly the same (ignoring comissions and spread) but iam out after 10 pips and can move on scanning for another oppurtunity, instead of waiting all day for the 100 to come and make the same money anyway. sure the 1 lot trade...
This is another misconception that I truly feels bad about among traders as I used to followed it. 2% or 1% rule that most traders talked about shouldn't applied in all trading strategy. The time frame and trading frequency our strategy offers should be one of the component we take into account when we are considering how much we should risk on each trade. Scalpers risking 2% on every trade is quite dangerous and will have huge swing in their account if they managed not to blow out their accounts, the scalpers that I know mostly have less than 0.5% or even goes below 0.2% for each trade. Their equity curve is much smoother and they still have nice gains. However if the 2% rule works for you in scalping, and it produce consistent profits, then you should stick to it.
  • #1,203
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:09am Sep 19, 2016 10:09am
Quoting th3b0y
What do you guys think will happen to GBPJPY ?
IMO all GBP pairs (except GBPCAD) may drop soon, just a matter of time.
  • #1,204
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:09am Sep 19, 2016 10:09am
Quoting th3b0y
What do you guys think will happen to GBPJPY ?
Looks pointed towards 129 atm, but I'm not trading it, as it kind of looks in the middle of nowhere right now and not a clear entry...
  • #1,205
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:12am Sep 19, 2016 10:12am
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} Longer waiting time doesn't means bad idea even though we are riding shorter trend. There's a lot of misconception among we traders that goes something like somehow a politician could easily blow through our stops easily when we hold our trade longer. If a trader is holding for the long term and having a few hundred pips of stop loss, it's hard for price (especially in the currency market) to blow through your stops that easy and even if it does blow through our stop with slippage, the few pips of slippage would be very small to cause any...
Some excellent insight here
  • #1,206
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:14am Sep 19, 2016 10:14am
Really tired of trading CAD because of its correlation with OIL.... makes it very uncertain and "disobedient" to technical analysis...

NZDCAD has been at a major ceiling weekly level for weeks refusing to drop, each time i get in and it looks like its on its way down, something happens with oil or NZD gets stubborn and i get stopped out.....
Abandoned the pair, but it's calling out to me again
  • #1,207
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:14am Sep 19, 2016 10:14am
Not that anyone really cares but I moved the balance I had in a FxTrade (Oanda) account to an MT4 (Oanda) account. I will leave the original trade explorer up so no history is lost. I needed to move it to MT4 to allow a new EA I created to run on the account. I created a new TE for the new MT4 account.

Hope everyone has a great week.

Watch out for all of those interest rate announcements this week. Not just U.S.
  • #1,208
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:23am Sep 19, 2016 10:23am
Quoting benaiah
Updated the list, and we now have a 1 year profitable trader. https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0hFdZ...Profit_Ability Congrats again to Alpha8, being all quiet and modest all this time, we did not know he had already achieved the goal we are striving for in this thread, lol... Btw, Alpha8, your draw-downs do not look bad. And from what I understand from professional traders, it is to be expected to have some bad days, weeks, and even months. I can't imagine why anyone would not call your track record a success....
Thanks benaiah, I would say I'm in the red about half the time not sure if you mean my balance is always below my equity curve instead of the other way round? It does looks better now because the drawdown is over (and it will come again and it will looks bad again when the time comes). If we take away the last 4 months of gains, the equity curve does looks bad (having losses after losses after losses for 3 straight months though the losses isn't too big), I myself doesn't feels good about it and it's hard to go through that period even though I encounter longer period of drawdown in the past. That's the interesting part of trading to me, it's always a process, keep on learning everyday and humble even if we are able to make good gains out of the market.
  • #1,209
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:30am Sep 19, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} Thanks benaiah, I would say I'm in the red about half the time not sure if you mean my balance is always below my equity curve instead of the other way round? It does looks better now because the drawdown is over (and it will come again and it will looks bad again when the time comes). If we take away the last 4 months of gains, the equity curve does looks bad (having losses after losses after losses for 3 straight months though the losses isn't too big), I myself doesn't feels good about it and it's hard to go through that period even though...
hmm... Well, this is what I look at:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016.png Size: 63 KB
  • #1,210
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:32am Sep 19, 2016 10:32am
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} Thanks benaiah, I would say I'm in the red about half the time not sure if you mean my balance is always below my equity curve instead of the other way round? It does looks better now because the drawdown is over (and it will come again and it will looks bad again when the time comes). If we take away the last 4 months of gains, the equity curve does looks bad (having losses after losses after losses for 3 straight months though the losses isn't too big), I myself doesn't feels good about it and it's hard to go through that period even though...
So, you are ahead from May 2015. It appears you are up around 50%. I don't think that is a bad result...

oh, wait, lol

actual gain is around 77%, how is that not good??
  • #1,211
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:52am Sep 19, 2016 10:52am
ive tried before htf and i had good trades,very good ones, thats when i had 30% profit, but i had to wait a lot fpr a good trade, maybe days, or weeks, 1 o 2 trades in a month, and i really wanted more action so i came down in timeframes.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #1,212
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:58am Sep 19, 2016 10:58am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} So, you are ahead from May 2015. It appears you are up around 50%. I don't think that is a bad result... oh, wait, lol actual gain is around 77%, how is that not good??
It does looks good now but during the 3 months drawdown (actually longer if we consider the start from the peak of Feb), it's really hard to go through and listen to some critiques that's not helpful. Most of us want to make money every month including myself (we have to admit it!) even though I've shifted my goal towards quarterly and yearly.

BTW, I'm long on silver, the little brother of gold since last Monday. Hoping for the best, I don't really like how price behaves two weeks ago...
  • #1,213
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:02am Sep 19, 2016 11:02am
Quoting Koop
Really tired of trading CAD because of its correlation with OIL.... makes it very uncertain and "disobedient" to technical analysis... NZDCAD has been at a major ceiling weekly level for weeks refusing to drop, each time i get in and it looks like its on its way down, something happens with oil or NZD gets stubborn and i get stopped out..... Abandoned the pair, but it's calling out to me again
I feel you, I felt tired just watching USD/CAD, it just keep chop around without any clear direction. Lets see if we can get any breakout soon!
  • #1,214
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:02am Sep 19, 2016 11:02am
Quoting th3b0y
What do you guys think will happen to GBPJPY ?
always up and down, never ending.
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #1,215
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:03am Sep 19, 2016 11:03am
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} It does looks good now but during the 3 months drawdown (actually longer if we consider the start from the peak of Feb), it's really hard to go through and listen to some critiques that's not helpful. Most of us want to make money every month including myself (we have to admit it!) even though I've shifted my goal towards quarterly and yearly. BTW, I'm long on silver, the little brother of gold since last Monday. Hoping for the best, I don't really like how price behaves two weeks ago...
yea, don't listen to the short-term memory traders, lol

You are in the right place, since this thread is about making trading work for the longer term. Anyone can have a great month or 3. Anyone can have a bad month or 3. But few can have a good year. Look forward to your continued success...
  • #1,216
  • Edited 11:22am Sep 19, 2016 11:07am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting Alpha8
{quote} Longer waiting time doesn't means bad idea even though we are riding shorter trend. There's a lot of misconception among we traders that goes something like somehow a politician could easily blow through our stops easily when we hold our trade longer. If a trader is holding for the long term and having a few hundred pips of stop loss, it's hard for price (especially in the currency market) to blow through your stops ...
cutting you off there .. and sorry if i poke into this thread with this, thats something i have really a genuine interest in ..
would you care to elaborate a litte bit more about this?

yes this is all based on the trading style

my personal thinking (was/is) simply
if i risk 2% on a 50 pip move is just faster in the pit that risking 2% on a 500 pip move.
i do not risk "2% per trade" .. i put 2% total in the market at a given time .. so my argument to myself was simply .. the faster i get out, the faster i can risk it again"
so for the sake of the argument, lets just assume the RR is 1:1 in both scenarios, would your argument then still be valid ?

as for anything else i totally agree .. specially about scalping which is of course overkill with 2% as the noise is too great.
well i do it anyway, with a tiny account and only in the Asia or off-session ... can hardly be called "Scalping"
it feels more like giving a razor to a Turtle
  • #1,217
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:08am Sep 19, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Peruvian80
ive tried before htf and i had good trades,very good ones, thats when i had 30% profit, but i had to wait a lot fpr a good trade, maybe days, or weeks, 1 o 2 trades in a month, and i really wanted more action so i came down in timeframes.
I've been in that spot too, going down in time frame could be one of the good choices we have. Alternatively, you can try adding more pairs, expand to other asset classes or even develop another strategy that has low correlation with the one you currently have, that's the real diversification the big guns do but developing another strategy is the last thing we should try though, it's hard enough to master one strategy, only add onto it when we have successful with the one we have in our toolbox.
  • #1,218
  • Edited 11:27am Sep 19, 2016 11:13am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} cutting you off there .. because thats something i have really a genuine interest in .. would you care to elaborate a litte bit more about this? yes this is all based on the trading style my personal thinking (was/is) simply if i risk 2% on a 50 pip move is just faster in the pit that risking 2% on a 500 pip move. so for the sake of the argument, lets just assume the RR is 1:1 in both scenarios, would your argument then still be valid ? as for anything else i totally agree .. specially about scalping which is of course overkill with 2% as...
would be interested in further response from Alhpa8. But also, risk is relative to one's confidence, which is built on success rate and length of time trading.

If someone trades for 6 months to year an NEVER loses more than 5 trades in a row (with good win rate and +R, i.e. successful trading), they can comfortably risk 5% and be confident their worse draw-down will be -25% (approximate, but actual draw-down would be in the stats).

I someone only trades for a a few weeks or months, I mean who knows what their worst losing streak might be? They haven't experienced enough market variation to build confidence in what their track record is...

Best case is for someone to have years of experience, but minimally 6 months, but 1 year is better, since it is trading through all 4 quarters... Then they can look at their worst draw-down, and worst losing streak and decide what their comfort level is regarding risk per trade, per day, week, month, etc.

Just my 2 cents...
  • #1,219
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:33am Sep 19, 2016 11:33am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I joined this thread and opened Live account TE on FF ONLY to support you in this challenge helping you prove that PVSRA has an edge needed for consistent profitability even if mistakes are made regarding discipline and patience. I am the proof of this, because I made few big mistakes of overloading on this small account past 47 days. All recovered very fast and without any problems and without a danger to this small account. I personally would never give my bigger live account data to FF or MyFxBook or any such app. In the end, green pips...
Comeback here sist, don't take this personal. He only maintain status quo, you know in another thread someone try to hijack. But i know you not, so comeback here and we have fun...
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
  • #1,220
  • Sep 19, 2016 11:43am Sep 19, 2016 11:43am
Benaiah! What a great forum! I took a couple years off because I was so frustrated after so many years of studying and not being profitable. This spring I came back and after a couple months I found something that worked for me. I'm tracking my progress and rewarding myself with deposits into my trading account as I go.
I'll fire up my Trade Explorer and get it in my signature.

Thanks!!
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