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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #181
  • Sep 16, 2016 8:17am Sep 16, 2016 8:17am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ...Then we have the upper daily bracket low at 31185 that could offer some more support.
Price went through the upper bracket low without any apparent reaction. Now we are below it just above the fire cracker effect. Note a lot of single pips for both B and C periods. But if we close here with preUS, pit session will have a huge gap down.

This are the remaining possible weak references below (in case of continuation downside):

  1. 3072 08.30 Pit session poor low
  2. 30634 08.30 GB session poor low
  3. 3059 08.29 preUS session poor low
  4. 30335 08.22 Tokyo session poor low
  5. 3023 08.19 preUS+pit US composite poor low
  6. 29585 08.16 pit US poor low
  7. 28785 08.15 Tokyo session poor low
  8. and finally 28655 08.15 Pit session poor low

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #182
  • Sep 16, 2016 8:47am Sep 16, 2016 8:47am
So, we got a very big gap downside. We are below the low of the upper daily bracket and right above a substantial number of weak references to correct. If the last news will not be destructive, we could continue lower from here. At the same time all this move down is weak because it disregards completely the weakness above it.

 

  1. So if period B (news) will not be able to stay above 31187, 31376 and especially 31637, it could be a licit short. If you are already in a short your structural SL is inside the gap down, above one of these references (it dipends upon your risk).

If instead the B period (or the current one) will retrace abruptly this gap down, the upper scenario will step in again.

  1. If you will buy in that situation your stops should be below wednsday low or below the bracket low (again, it dipends upon your attitude to risk) If instead you already bought this at the bottom of preUS, working against the gap down, in this case you will not want to see price below 3083 level, because in that case price could easily accelerate downside in the firecracker effect.

There is also a possibility regarding the fact that this is Friday and that the current move down is already very big (and weak). This could eventually lead to a balance.

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  • #183
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:11am Sep 16, 2016 9:11am
Please do not forget (as I did) that 30465 is the top of the lower daily bracket. It could offer support if reached. As you see A period of current pit session bounced at 31187 that is, as written, the low of the upper daily bracket.
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  • #184
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:14am Sep 16, 2016 9:14am
one thing I am thinking of - the volume of the news 4h candle is twice lover than that we had on Sept. 13

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #185
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:30am Sep 16, 2016 9:30am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
one thing I am thinking of - the volume of the news 4h candle is twice lover than that we had on Sept. 13 Best D.P.
I note that current m30 is pretty good as volume.
So maybe stronger timeframes let do the job to go down below the bracket low to the weaker hands and then they could step in now with less risk. Or, at the opposite, they let the weaker hands to go down here, in order to put them in trouble and then retrace all of their action to the downside.

If you consider the full US profile we are in a onetimeframing lower environment. If instead you split it in to the 2 normal preUS and Pit sessions you will see that current B and C periods are up and down the preUS low. And also that pit session has a very narrow range. BTW I have only one short position at 3172 and I didn't add anything to it, right for this contraddictory information. Best L.
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  • #186
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:40am Sep 16, 2016 9:40am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I note that current m30 is pretty good as volume. So maybe stronger timeframes let do the job to go down below the bracket low to the weaker hands and then they could step in now with less risk. Or, at the opposite, they let the weaker hands to go down here, in order to put them in trouble and then retrace all of their action to the downside. If you consider the full US profile we are in a onetimeframing lower environment. If instead you split it in to the 2 normal preUS and Pit sessions you will see that current B and C periods are up and...


D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #187
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:44am Sep 16, 2016 9:44am
Current 3092 is an old m30 cluster from 08.31 so it is now particularly weak with current tag of it by period C low
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  • #188
  • Sep 16, 2016 9:51am Sep 16, 2016 9:51am
Anyhow, it's Friday and it's enough for me. As said it can or not continue lower down to the weak references listed at my post #181. I closed my position because I'm too tired to follow it. Have a nice continuation and a great holiday!
Kind regards and see you soon.
Best L:
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #189
  • Sep 16, 2016 10:16am Sep 16, 2016 10:16am
Hey Lock! It finally came down..afraid to add more shorts .. it reminds of "dont try to catch a falling knife". Thanks man for the input
Be the change that you want to change
  • #190
  • Sep 16, 2016 8:03pm Sep 16, 2016 8:03pm
GOD BLESS LOCK.
  • #191
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:26am Sep 19, 2016 12:26am
Quoting actionmoney
GOD BLESS LOCK.
well, thank you very much indeed!
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  • #192
  • Sep 19, 2016 12:28am Sep 19, 2016 12:28am
Quoting mubinirl
Hey Lock! It finally came down..afraid to add more shorts .. it reminds of "dont try to catch a falling knife". Thanks man for the input
Thank you for your support!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #193
  • Edited 1:14am Sep 19, 2016 12:31am | Edited 1:14am
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Monthly

As previously written, September failed the attempted breakout above and then the natural possible target was and still is the opposite side of the balance, meaning the low of August.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Weekly

There is no more one time framing higher:last week retraced 3 week lows in a row.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily

Nor the high nor the low of the major daily bracket have been tested yet. We are now at the top of the lower daily bracket and if we will have confirmation below it we will have a good opportunity to take out the weak August low and possibly make a test of the major bracket low (if we find something below August. If instead price will not find acceptation below the lower bracket high, we could come back into the upper bracket trying to go and test the major high.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sessions

The sharp fast liquidation of Friday removed a lot of weak references downside. Anyway some very weak refs below remained untouched and the Friday pit session closed with a poor low now tagged by an other poor low from tonight Sydney. There are good odds that this auction is not over yet. At the same time the magnitude of this move needs some form of correction. I think infact that the inventories could only be too short after it. Tokyo seems in a fase of correction of those inventories, and it is currently testing the top of the lower daily bracket. If the upcoming GB session will fail above it we have a good possibility to come down and correct, at least the Friday pit session low and, eventually, go even further downside in order to take out the August very weak low.

Note that GB will probably open with a very big gap downside: if this gap happen and if it will preserved, the odds are for a continuation downside or at least a balance.**

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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**Note that of all the weak references below we still have to correct the weakest among them. This does not mean we are going to finish the work right now, this only means that the work downside is not over yet:

  1. 31375 09.14 pit session poor low
  2. 31295 09.01 GB session poor low
  3. 31275 08.31 Tokyo session poor low
  4. 3072 08.30 Pit session poor low
  5. 30634 08.30 GB session poor low
  6. 3059 08.29 preUS session poor low
  7. 30335 08.22 Tokyo session poor low
  8. 3023 08.19 preUS+pit US composite poor low
  9. 29585 08.16 pit US poor low
  10. 28785 08.15 Tokyo session poor low
  11. and finally 28655 08.15 Pit session poor low

Let me add here a final note: all this move down was liquidation, not new money selling. New money will never leave behind such weak references as those this move left behind itself, nor a serius sell will act with such a sharp fast move like this: it was too much, too fast. Stronger timeframes do not act in such a way.

Weak refs above are:

 

  1. All the minus development left behind by the Friday 09.16 liquidation (GB + preUS + pitUS)
  2. 3248 GB 09.15 poor high tagged by Tokyo 09.16 poor high (extraordinary weak!)
  3. 3245 Pit session 09.15 poor high
  4. 33385 Tokyo 09.13 poor high
  5. 33406 Sydney 09.12 poor high(made in the 12 of September after pit 09.12 close)
  6. 33468 Pit 09.12 poor high
  7. 33595 preUS 09.08 poor high
  8. 3421 GB 09.07 poor high
  9. 34228 Tokyo 09.07 poor high
  10. 3431 very prominent pit POC 09.06
  11. and finally 34445 Tuesday 09.06 pit poor high (the top of this current move downside)

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #194
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:14am Sep 19, 2016 1:14am
Quoting Lock
EARLY MORNING REPORT Monthly As previously written, September failed the attempted breakout above and then the natural possible target was and still is the opposite side of the balance, meaning the low of August. {image} Weekly There is no more one time framing higher:last week retraced 3 week lows in a row. {image} Daily Nor the high nor the low of the major daily bracket have been tested yet. We are now at the top of the lower daily bracket and if we will have confirmation below it we will have a good opportunity to take out the weak August low...
Good morning Lock, thanks for the analysis.
  • #195
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:17am Sep 19, 2016 1:17am
nice dump on Friday in past 4 hrs. Now u understand lock why I said on Friday sub 1.30's. I got caught as well on Friday. thinking that 150 pips was already overdone after US data and bought. bastards hit my stoploss at 1.2996. Its not done yet. 1.26 is what I see
  • #196
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:32am Sep 19, 2016 1:32am
Quoting giveachance
nice dump on Friday in past 4 hrs. Now u understand lock why I said on Friday sub 1.30's. I got caught as well on Friday. thinking that 150 pips was already overdone after US data and bought. bastards hit my stoploss at 1.2996. Its not done yet. 1.26 is what I see
Hello giveachance,
I had understood your idea for Friday and as written I've nothing against it. It was one of the possibilities and in my opinion it is always better to have at least 3 plans for the upcoming price action. Sometimes the preffered one will work and everything it's fine (like in this case) sometimes it will not and in this cases, in my opinion, it is always better to have prepared well in advance an alternative. Because if something goes wrong at the moment it will happen you will not have the energy and the time to build something different and eventually act along this other possibility. Sorry for the stops. During friday, in a move of this maginitude, even if I was the first one to underline its weakness, it is always a good idea to not fade the trend, specially if you have a onetimeframing lower in act. (But.. I did this many many time in my life, so It's better for me to keep silence shut up!)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #197
  • Sep 19, 2016 1:37am Sep 19, 2016 1:37am
Quoting actionmoney
{quote} Good morning Lock, thanks for the analysis.
Thanks Actionmoney! Have a nice day.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #198
  • Edited 2:17am Sep 19, 2016 2:06am | Edited 2:17am
GB opens downside with a substantial gap down. GB is now testing the current Tokyo high at 3056 while Friday London close is at 30877 and the daily lower bracket high is at 30465 so we have to remain and confirm below all of them in order to have continuation downside.

If there is no continuation downside, Pit anomalies are at 3071-30745, 30807-30853, 3105-3107.

09:15 +1GMT Price up and down open: initial lack of conviction in any direction. For now the test above Tokyo high failed as at the same time the test below the daily lower brcket high failed too. But the downside huge gap is currently untouched.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #199
  • Sep 19, 2016 2:46am Sep 19, 2016 2:46am
GB for now looks in a short covering mode. The test below the lower daily bracket high failed and we are currently confirming above Tokyo high. Price removed the first friday pit anomaly 3071-30745 (at the pip). B period low is at Tokyo session high 3056, so it is weak: carry this information forward.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #200
  • Sep 19, 2016 3:01am Sep 19, 2016 3:01am
Quoting Lock
GB for now looks in a short covering mode. The test below the lower daily bracket high failed and we are currently confirming above Tokyo high. Price removed the first friday pit anomaly 3071-30745 (at the pip). B period low is at Tokyo session high 3056, so it is weak: carry this information forward.
C period low tagged again the Tokyo high. Now it is even weaker. Carry this inf. for.
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