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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #141
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:42am Sep 16, 2016 2:42am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Also let me add a thing, the fact that GB went down immediately, without even a test or a TAG of the huge cluster higher is a clear sign of a liquidation. Stronger money will never leave behind a so weak reference without a test above it. This does not mean it cannot last. As always it means it is weak. Very weak. The only possible sign of something is changing with this, it's the possibility of a pit gap down late today. I mean, if this liquidation will last downside below yesterday pit low and price will not be able to come back up, creating...
I am almost sure the day is about to be the rotation day over the balance.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #142
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:42am Sep 16, 2016 2:42am
Yesterday GB unch tagged at the pip (31995). We are at the top of the last yesterday pit session anomalies and at round number 3200. All weak references here.
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  • #143
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:43am Sep 16, 2016 2:43am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I am almost sure the day is about to be the rotation day over the balance. Best D.P.
It is absolutely possible, olso considering the upcoming final news for this indecisive week. For now is clearly old business.
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  • #144
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:47am Sep 16, 2016 2:47am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is absolutely possible, olso considering the upcoming final news for this indecisive week. For now is clearly old business.
Yes, it is

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #145
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:48am Sep 16, 2016 2:48am
Quoting Lock
Yesterday pit anomalies are at 3216, 3207-3201, 31895-3200. First one already been removed while I was writing
all the yesterday pit anomalies corrected.

Quoting Lock
{quote} ... Also remember the pole of attraction at 3191 main POC from the 15 of August. There are news today and price could stay also here waiting for them.
main POC tag (at the pip*)

*an other sigh of weakness.
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  • #146
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:50am Sep 16, 2016 2:50am
eur/gbp target is 0.8786. so with euro falling below 1.12 we basically have sub 1.30's in cable
  • #147
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:51am Sep 16, 2016 2:51am
Quoting Lock
{quote} all the yesterday pit anomalies corrected. {quote} main POC tag (at the pip*) *an other sigh of weakness.
So do you expect we can fall down today?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #148
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:55am Sep 16, 2016 2:55am
Quoting actionmoney
{quote} Good morning, great analysis Lock. GB has finished testing @ 3207, planning to have a short sell with fast execution.
It's a licit short, putting your structural stop right inside the Tokyo range (at the bottom of it). I didn't do anything because I was very scared by the incredible cluster at the top of Tokyo. I think I've to start to accept the fact that this market is totally ruled by weak hands and what was impossible with the presence of stronger partecipants, is totally normal with their constant absence in the last 2 months and more.
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  • #149
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:06am Sep 16, 2016 3:06am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} So do you expect we can fall down today? Best D.P.
I've no idea whatsoever about that. I only underline that current action is weak money trading. Stronger money will never stop at yes unch, then POC, and so on.

Now let's see what C period will do. It is an important pperiod because it is generally a "tester" for the initial balance.
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  • #150
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:08am Sep 16, 2016 3:08am
Quoting giveachance
eur/gbp target is 0.8786. so with euro falling below 1.12 we basically have sub 1.30's in cable

A correlation is clearly possible here but, please, have a look at the USDX chart. There is a crazy situation there. With stops above and below "narrowing together". Everything is possible in such environment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #151
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:13am Sep 16, 2016 3:13am
Quoting Lock
{quote} A correlation is clearly possible here but, please, have a look at the USDX chart. There is a crazy situation there. With stops above and below "narrowing together". Everything is possible in such environment. {image}
there has been clear evidence of a correlation and with large expiries in euro expiring around 1.1230. euro fall will be limited and eur/gbp moves will be massive if gbp falls
  • #152
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:18am Sep 16, 2016 3:18am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} there has been clear evidence of a correlation and with large expiries in euro expiring around 1.1230. euro fall will be limited and eur/gbp moves will be massive if gbp falls
In my experience options are tricky sometimes. A lot of people think something is going to happen for sure because generally is normal in that way. Then price went against them putting the same people in a lot of troubles. The correlation is totally possible, as written, and I agree with you. But watch out because this is an extremely weak market, and I'm not the only one to know it.


BTW a possible fall of cable is one of the scenarios I planned at the start of this week. I hope to be lucky enough to find some edge, some ruling reason, in order to decide what to do. In the meantime, and if I will find nothing, my only plan will be "do nothing".
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  • #153
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:20am Sep 16, 2016 3:20am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I've no idea whatsoever about that. I only underline that current action is weak money trading. Stronger money will never stop at yes unch, then POC, and so on. Now let's see what C period will do. It is an important pperiod because it is generally a "tester" for the initial balance.
1/ Take note of the fact - the initial balance of the London is within the volume area of yesterday's NY session.
2/ Yes you are right the strong money sould not have stopped if they wanted to fall the pair.
3/ But the main I have seen is that the IB London is very wide - it is more than twice greater than the year average.
4/ The second is that the volumes used to protect the yesterday's NY low is lower than that has been used for accumulation, what means we are now seeing the test of the accumulation area (nearby yesterday's VPOC).

whoever says, I am accumulating as well for now.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #154
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:21am Sep 16, 2016 3:21am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I've no idea whatsoever about that. I only underline that current action is weak money trading. Stronger money will never stop at yes unch, then POC, and so on. Now let's see what C period will do. It is an important pperiod because it is generally a "tester" for the initial balance.
I strongly believe we will fall down today on g/u.
  • #155
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:31am Sep 16, 2016 3:31am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} 1/ Take note of the fact - the initial balance of the London is within the volume area of yesterday's NY session. 2/ Yes you are right the strong money sould not have stopped if they wanted to fall the pair. 3/ But the main I have seen is that the IB London is very wide - it is more than twice greater than the year average. 4/ The second is that the volumes used to protect the yesterday's NY low is lower than that has been used for accumulation, what means we are now seeing the test of the accumulation area (nearby yesterday's VPOC). whoever...

Smart analysis. Generally a big initial balance is liquidation or short covering. Because a big move at the start of an auction is generaly a correction of old business (if we are not in the direction of the trend). A big initial balance as open drive could be obviously the first step of a big move, but in that case the references used will never be those used by weak hands. So if this was something more than liquidation of yesterday weak pit action higher, price will never stop at the POC.
Now C is inside bar of B, let's see if something is possible from here or if we will start to create a "b" shaped profile (meaning balance after liquidation)

Note that we have already a 4 letters poc for GB.

Best L.
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  • #156
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:39am Sep 16, 2016 3:39am
Quoting actionmoney
{quote} I strongly believe we will fall down today on g/u.
It is good to have a conviction and to be a decision maker. But if you want to survive, you need to have at least 3 plans prepared, because if something will go wrong in what you have opted for, you have to be prepared well before this could possibly happen. Otherwise at the moment of the action you will never have the possibility to create a different picture on the spot.
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  • #157
  • Edited 4:06am Sep 16, 2016 3:43am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Smart analysis. Generally a big initial balance is liquidation or short covering.
Correct, Lock.

Normally distributed day could be possible.

Quoting Lock
{quote}Because a big move at the start of an auction is generaly a correction of old business (if we are not in the direction of the trend).
Yes, that is the question...

Yesterday I saw that the last two days had higher highs and higher lows, if you saw 4H.

Quoting Lock
{quote}A big initial balance as open drive could be obviously the first step of a big move, but in that case the reference used will never be those used by weak hands.
Sure, but I have found (some years ago) if the Asian IB of the day is narrow (<8-10 pips), we might await for a strong move.

Quoting Lock
{quote} So if this was something more than liquidation of yesterday weak pit action higher, price will never stop at the POC. Now C is inside bar of B, let's see if something is possible from here or if we will start to create a "b" shaped profile (meaning balance after liquidation) Best L
Yes and Yes, awaiting to see.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #158
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:52am Sep 16, 2016 3:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is good to have a conviction and to be a decision maker. But if you want to survive, you need to have at least 3 plans prepared, because if something will go wrong in what you have opted for, you have to be prepared well before this could possibly happen. Otherwise at the moment of the action you will never have the possibility to create a different picture on the spot.
Thanks for the advice, I really appreciate it.
I already have long position opened to catch up some pips because of EUR date coming at 10:00 am GMT+1 and anything that happens at 10:15am will determine my short position that will awaits US data.

If anyone noticed; US data on economic calendar that have (-)minus always help the G/U go up and if it comes in (+) positive information it always bring the G/U down on chart... Today's US data is + compare to that of yesterday -, which will invariably drag the G/U down as much/little as it will be... Thats my understanding and I may probably be wrong.
  • #159
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:53am Sep 16, 2016 3:53am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Correct, Lock. Normally distributed day could be possible. {quote} Yes, that is the question... Yesterday I saw that the last two days had higher highs and higher lows, if you saw 4H. {quote} Sure, but I have found (some years ago) if the Asian IB of the day is narrow (<8-10 pips), we might wait a strong move. {quote} Yes and Yes, awaiting to see. Best D.P.
A narrow IB for Asia could mean that they were waiting for upcoming information from subsequent sessions, so they did not want to invest their money in something unclear at the moment. (and this is the reason why you noticed a big move after that sometimes: because eventually the information came and the big move happened in the following sessions, or sometime after in the same Asia session) For instance they do not understand if there is a good occasion for short covering or liquidation, or, if trend, a good occasion to anticipate the move in a particular direction. Today, anyhow, was China bank holiday, so a lack of liquidity could have leaded to such a little IB.
Best L.
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  • #160
  • Sep 16, 2016 3:57am Sep 16, 2016 3:57am
Quoting Lock
{quote} A narrow IB for Asia could mean that they are waiting for upcoming information from subsequent sessions, so they do not want to invest their money in something unclear at the moment. For instance they do not understand if there is a good occasion for short covering or liquidation, or, if trend, a good occasion to anticipate the move in a particular direction. Today, anyhow, was China bank holiday, so a lack of liquidity could have leaded to such a little IB.
Yes, about the first theses, and Yes, as to China, the absence of volume is the answer as well.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
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