Fader Journal

Thought I would put all my thoughts on trading in a journal
As having everything written down - helps me clarify everything
Would appreciate it if no-one else posts here
And also my analysis is usually wrong- so please don't follow it

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Cable (12/7/2016)

GBP-

Sentiment -(strong) rebounded based on a number of things-

a) New PM (has given the market great confidence)
b) Carney unlikely to cut rates too much 25bp seems the most. There is no way he will cut to zero (based on Feb speech). Basically this one point gives strength
to Sterling- think he will re-iterate this on Thursday

UK Economy

Exports seem ok
John Lewis sales - dipped
PMI for construction down
PMI for services down
Commercial property funds frozen


USD

Sentiment

Weakness in the economy- from NFP data. Fed not going to raise rates- based on latest FOMC minutes. There are going to be some important company figures coming through that will give an idea on what is happening.

Fed member statements yesterday - have been dovish

Action

Ok - market has rallied up - 430 pips

Asian session-mixed/bullish

Usually this carries over into the London session - but there is an interest rate decision on Thursday

Cut in interest rates - brings uncertainty.

How can traders be long going into a rate cut- and after a 400 pip rally

Sold at 1.32686

Currently up 30 pips after 10 mins - so may be someone has seen sense.

Ok so let review the trade.

Sold at 1.32686 last night and bought at 3.16- got about 110 pips

However, what could I have done better

a) I should have seen that the Asian session was still bullish - so I should have put a limit order order in

b) there was a 00 some 30 pips away from my entry

c) Perhaps I should have left it for the Asian session tonight

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13/07/2016

Currently bouncing off 31.8% retracement- price has a habit of going through support on the 5th attempt-

Gone through

Cannot see any traders wanting to be long tonight- going into tomorrow
Carney is cutting rates in the morning- think that this move has more to go
Have gone short 1.36- so this could run to at least 1.31- this is close to a 50% retracement- but would not be surprised to see 100 pip drop tonight
So far up 20 pips

Review of previous trade/day

a) Forgot to put a TP in- dropped to 1.31 (circa 50%)- but moved SL to BE- so flat
b) Had an issue on FF - with the interest UK announcement being shown at 3pm- not sure about that
c) Faded the move down - despite constant interruptions from wife and kids

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US- employment figures seemed strong, retail Sales were good, industry figures good

This is the main driver today- coupled with an overbought state of Cable.

About time USD turned around.

On Tuesday next week CPI figures due. Carney is going to look at inflation in order to determine the size of the interest rate cut.
Although the figs on Tuesday won't show too much - think that - if they are lowish- then Carney could cut rates further

Market has been down a lot today, next stop 1.315- which is also close to a fib level- the 1.31 next

Everything lines up- strong US figs, Carney cutting rates next month

Think we are due for poor figures next week from UK- 1.28 who knows

If figures are poor on Tuesday - we could be seeing 1.29 during the week

Might get a bounce on Monday- so 1.33 if I can get it looks a fair price

Also for some reason the market keeps rallying recently during the Asian session. If that happens again then hopefully London traders will sell Cable on Monday morning

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18 Jul 2016


Review of where we are:

On Friday -market bounced off 1.315- (Fib level -rallied to another one- then failed to re-test low).- fairly bullish

Sunday- market opened up 20 pips and has just hit 38.2% retracement. Thought market might rally on Asian session today on Friday

Got easy 42 pips despite my best attempts at getting in and exiting badly. Should have really got another 30 on top.

Hoping that it will hit fib levels-1.33 is a 50% retracement level - is also a projected area and a round number.

Then lets see what London does - if it does not come off before London opens it will get dumped circa 80 pips on open

A couple of issues:

a) Monday - means traders might want to clear out stops
b) There is no real news at the moment

CPI figures on Tuesday - these will be watched in detail

OK - so where are we

Cable down circa 200 pips+

Mainly caused by negative news on UK and positive news in the US today
Plus we are starting to get some really good figures from the US as regards corporate earnings.
No real US economic figures tomorrow probably just more poor UK ones I think

Might recover over the Asian session
If poor figures on Weds morning Cable will get thumped
Morgan Stanley report tomorrow as well - strong figures expected
Think the pound is in for more of the same on Weds perhaps not such a large drop

Plus we are only 100 pips way from 1.3000- this figure attracts- lots of orders around here

21 July 2016

Thinking of how things are going to plan out for tomorrow

Philly Index was a bit low today- UK Retail Sales as expected rubbish

Very quiet at the moment - might pull back a bit - not sure what Asian session will do-seems to be mixed/bullish

Manufacturing and Services PMI tomorrow

Looking at BOE agents review- seems that at the moment things have not changed too much
However, certain projects have been placed on hold - however 1/3rd of companies have investment concerns over the next 12 months
There has been a reduction in deal making
However, Sterlings fall has made the costs of doing business from the UK much cheaper.
Some companies with EU arms will place more investment in those countries

Last months PMI services - seemed to have a very gloomy outlook:

Key points were:

Growth over second quarter as a whole slowest since Q1 2013
 Expectations weakest since December 2012
 Slowest rise in employment since August 2013- (obviously this has now changed)

Personally - I think that things would have improved a bit -

The most recent PMI services were taken between 13-28 June - at the time everyone was in shock
It was issued on 5th July

Tomorrows PMI I reckon was for the period 1 July- 16 July

The estimate is 48.9 - now bearing last month returned 52.3- and this was meant to be bearish and as things have improved now we have got over the shock of the vote- I think we could be looking at a higher figure

A couple of things to note: employment figures have increased better than expectations, CPI has increased

So at the moment I am long

Friday is usually a quieter day - but think 1.326 is worth a test- if its bullish during the Asian session - they might pull it back a bit before or after London opens

Then if PMI services have turned around - it should rally a far bit.
Manufacturing PMI - I have taken as should definitely beat estimates- due to the low pound

Will then drift a bit - the hopefully US traders will oblige in the afternoon

Right thought I would do this again
Sometimes reading other people's systems and ideas gets you distracted
Well no more
I do really well out of trading the news and writing this blog helps me crystalise my thoughts and prepare a decent trade

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Aussie



Right I am have been looking into the Aussie
And thinking what Steven's statement is going to be
Sometimes I like to trade into or out of a statement
Did quite well this morning on the PMI UK services so lets see about the Aussie:

Data

Commodities - iron ore seemed to have risen, gold dropped last month - but has recovered
China growth - manufacturing says it has improved
Inflation - don't know yet- still low
Brexit - still concerns
Increasing AUD- mentioned in Stevens's statement
GDP- the 2nd qtr looks as though its going to be a lot less than the 1st
Housing does not seem to be an issue
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Other items
Unemployment seems to be getting better
Retail sales - not good at all

Ideas

Stevens cut rates last month, he won't cut them tomorrow
The point is will we get a dovish statement from Steven's - well to be honest the economy does not seem to be doing too bad
The only thing is that GDP seems to be a concern and inflation is still low.
So he could have a more dovish statement than that market expects
It must have upset him last month that as soon they cut rates the market rallied

So I would not be surprised to see a more dovish statement from the RBA

The thing is after Steven's speech - you usually get a big move
So I am going to be paying close attention to the statement

If the market expects nothing - and he delivers a dovish speech- this will be great - big drop on the Aussie
If the market expects nothing and he says that things are ok- 50 pips when London opens

Then I am off to the pub!
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Update

Right in anticipation of this trade I have set up - I have gone long going into it
Up about 10 pips- why I could not wait for a pullback who knows.
Have put a trailing stop on it
From what I gather this RBA statement will not talk about rate cuts and is expected to be monitoring the progress of the economy
Which lets face it is doing pretty well
Good enough for me
At 20 pips will move stop to BE
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ok got 40 pips

closed on pin bar

A case of buy rumour sell fact i think

Lessons to carry forward-
Sell into rallies
Use pivot points
Buy on pull backs
Should have held position into London

But up 150 pips this week - no losses with some decent stuff tomorrow
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Might be able to fade manu figs tomorrow and trade into CAD CB statement

Lets see - to be updated

Had to pick an IPAD today
Missed a peach of trade today
Could have been another 50 pips
oh well

Right the Loonie

August Figures

Manufacturing - ok
CPI - dropped to zero (low gas prices and discounted sales)- m/m
Retail Sales disapointed
GDP- beat estimates, mining, quarrying, oil and gas all on the up
Unemployment rate is seen as high- 6.9%
Employment Change - poor- biggest "drop" in full-time work in 5 years- this is a concern.
Although this has prompted people to talk about a drop in interest rates
However, there does seem to be a question mark over some the accuracy of some of the figures
Additionally, the US seem to be struggling at the moment - every print seems to be a bit bearish

Looking ahead - Russia and the Saudis have signed an agreement over oil prices

I think overall its not doing too bad- with unemployment and the US being dovish concerns

Will he cut rates. Don't think so.
The future doesn't look bad- GDP beat expectations, the fires are out, and oil is on its way back up
So leading into this statement I would expect the CAD to rise- and will continue out of it
Will need to see what the main analysts think
Should be a 80+ pip move tomorrow
Just need to select a currency to trade against

Last week missed a few things- including Draghi's speech which would have been worth 100 pips
Anyway - looking forward to next week looks promising

CPI figures on Tuesday -
will not be missing that

Thursday is going to be good
UK Retail sales- this will be a great trade
BOE reports
US Retail Sales

Friday
US- CPI

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Right looking at Tuesday

A couple of things concern me about whether we will beat estimates

a) Fuel dropped a bit in August
b) Retail Sales dropped last month
c) Commodity prices reigned in a bit

So we could be in for a miss.

The last time there was a miss- it bounced back straight away

But I would not be surprised to see the Cable drop before-hand

Now we have Brexit on our hands think we will see more volatility

Thought I would do a review of what is likely to happen over the next few days on Cable

First a review of fundamentals

US- wants to raise rates
UK - wants to cut rates

(So I look to sell Cable)

Review of recent data

US- poor data, except recent CPI figs
UK - strong data

(This information provides rallies in Cable)

News/Sentiment

UK - concerns over Brexit, BOE talking about cutting rates
(Bearish on Cable)

US- Yellen and Co (Fischer) more hawkish - still some concern about poor prints from some members
(Bearish to bullish on Cable)

Market expectations

December hike expectations has increased
But there are concerns about recent prints

Likely bias going into FOMC: bearish/mixed
Volatility - at 7pm - very high

Gut tells me Fed likely to be more dovish this time - based on recent poor prints
May set orders in at 1.2900
TP -1.310
SL-1.285

Probable trade straddle at 7pm- to get a spike
Will have squawk on

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Also her is a review of past week's action - and potential trade on Wednesday

Morning F . Thank you for your comments very nice of you I have been noted your posts you know what your doing I would say . Good look and look forward to reading your opinions. Regards . Billy

Hi Billy

Things are going ok
Thinking of just getting someone to trade for me as it takes up so much time

But enjoy the banter

All the best

Sean

This is the first time that I seen a clear fundamental and technical analysis


how you analyze fundamental news I mean way and news source(how you do it)


thanx mate

Hi juisen25

you are welcome

A lot of this is a game played by the powers that be
Think about it they sold a fortune on Thursday and Friday and sent it to 1.3000 where there are loads of buy orders

When the market is moving off for some reason - I try to ask myself why?
A few weeks ago there was some really positive news and Cable dived off 90 pips to the the previous days 4pm fix
Then stopped and reversed back up from
The thing is I don't know when they are going to do things like this
But they have to listen to news- so that's why I trade it

We could have a bigger rally on Monday- but the poor news on Friday did not help
At the moment there is a lot of bearish sentiment on the pound

On Wednesday I think it will be difficult for the Fed to be hawkish from these poor prints
But I will be reading analysts expectations on Wednesday to see what their view is- from Reuters and Bloomberg.
These are the ones that can drive the direction of the market with their views

All the best

Fader

Review of today

Did not do too bad on estimate.
The issue was on the news on Friday (Phillip Hammond)
But to be honest - that news came out at about 6 ish if I recall
And by then the damage was really done.
I should have discounted it- serves me right for reading things on FF
Got the candle shape right

Did not trade today
Perhaps on balance I should have.
The retracement was to 38% from yesterday as well
Could have been 80 pips- never mind

No news tomorrow - except building permits from US

Looking at tomorrow-

News seems to be filled with Brexit issues.
Having your country's PM pleading with US companies not to leave - does not fill one with confidence

http://www.bloomberg.com/europe

Hopefully the headline tomorrow will be on the Fed's view on Wednesday

One hand we have these Brexit issues - bearish on Cable
And there is talk however, of a more hawkish statement coming out, where the Fed may look more towards December as a hike
However, recent GDP figures recently have been very poor

If the news is going to be mixed Cable could range in the lead up to announcement on Wednesday

So its probably best to wait till Wednesday or later on Tuesday

The forecasts should be interesting

Good points
140 pips off the FOMC - should have got more actually
Got 15 pips fading the NZDJPY following their announcement

Bad points
Missed the fixes (50 pips)- won't happen again
Should have increased the leverage- as it was a cert on the fade
Live and learn

CAD- CPI next on Friday- hopefully 60 pips- this is a good one
Then a bit quiet next week- the week after is where it all kicks off


Looking at the FOMC statement- fundamentally

Would appear that the reason the Fed did not raise rates was because there is still some issues with employment and PCE/CPI have not reached their targets
Yellen did mention that there was a softening in business investment
Think traders will mainly be focusing on CPI and NFP figures going forward
However, it is still the Fed's intention to raise interest rates

Trading wise

Cable's move was very muted- it feels like US traders need to ask London's permission first

Think it could rally tomorrow- albeit not by much.
That move up was capped
Would like to see a pullback to perhaps to a 50% retracement/fib level which is near the 11am fix

Cable seems to be getting bullish now during the Asian session
No point in going long now as London will pullback any overnight rally above yesterdays high

To be honest that's why I prefer news trading - less rubbish and more pips

Roll on CAD CPI

Rallied overnight as thought should have traded it really
Anyway got 15 pips on the pullback
Might do a bit more research on that trade
Missed london rally as other stuff on and I missed Crude oil yesterday
So far 170 pips up so doing ok
Looking forward to Cad CPI