Thought I would put all my thoughts on trading in a journal
As having everything written down - helps me clarify everything
Would appreciate it if no-one else posts here
And also my analysis is usually wrong- so please don't follow it
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Cable (12/7/2016)
GBP-
Sentiment -(strong) rebounded based on a number of things-
a) New PM (has given the market great confidence)
b) Carney unlikely to cut rates too much 25bp seems the most. There is no way he will cut to zero (based on Feb speech). Basically this one point gives strength
to Sterling- think he will re-iterate this on Thursday
UK Economy
Exports seem ok
John Lewis sales - dipped
PMI for construction down
PMI for services down
Commercial property funds frozen
USD
Sentiment
Weakness in the economy- from NFP data. Fed not going to raise rates- based on latest FOMC minutes. There are going to be some important company figures coming through that will give an idea on what is happening.
Fed member statements yesterday - have been dovish
Action
Ok - market has rallied up - 430 pips
Asian session-mixed/bullish
Usually this carries over into the London session - but there is an interest rate decision on Thursday
Cut in interest rates - brings uncertainty.
How can traders be long going into a rate cut- and after a 400 pip rally
Sold at 1.32686
Currently up 30 pips after 10 mins - so may be someone has seen sense.
As having everything written down - helps me clarify everything
Would appreciate it if no-one else posts here
And also my analysis is usually wrong- so please don't follow it
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Cable (12/7/2016)
GBP-
Sentiment -(strong) rebounded based on a number of things-
a) New PM (has given the market great confidence)
b) Carney unlikely to cut rates too much 25bp seems the most. There is no way he will cut to zero (based on Feb speech). Basically this one point gives strength
to Sterling- think he will re-iterate this on Thursday
UK Economy
Exports seem ok
John Lewis sales - dipped
PMI for construction down
PMI for services down
Commercial property funds frozen
USD
Sentiment
Weakness in the economy- from NFP data. Fed not going to raise rates- based on latest FOMC minutes. There are going to be some important company figures coming through that will give an idea on what is happening.
Fed member statements yesterday - have been dovish
Action
Ok - market has rallied up - 430 pips
Asian session-mixed/bullish
Usually this carries over into the London session - but there is an interest rate decision on Thursday
Cut in interest rates - brings uncertainty.
How can traders be long going into a rate cut- and after a 400 pip rally
Sold at 1.32686
Currently up 30 pips after 10 mins - so may be someone has seen sense.