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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #3,461
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:47am Sep 15, 2016 7:47am
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  • #3,462
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:48am Sep 15, 2016 7:48am
Hi guys,

I read posts on this thread, and other linked posts to CC4 etc. but I can't really see how you trade the news. I tried it and lost every time. either my SL gets swiped, or TS triggered due to price jumping, or the spread goes through the roof and I can't make any profit.

Is there some algorithmic process you go through that you could share here? Or any directions?

I tried trading the news because I noticed when I trade with technical analysis it always get overriden by the fundamentals, so it doesn't really matter what I draw on the chart it still feels like guessing.

Thanks.
#noFomo
  • #3,463
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:12am Sep 15, 2016 8:12am
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  • #3,464
  • Sep 15, 2016 10:02am Sep 15, 2016 10:02am
Friday
15:30
16/9/16
US Core CPI
(US Core CPI), US, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,465
  • Sep 16, 2016 7:33am Sep 16, 2016 7:33am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,466
  • Sep 16, 2016 7:53am Sep 16, 2016 7:53am
Quoting vvFish
{image}
HMSR
  • #3,467
  • Sep 16, 2016 10:38am Sep 16, 2016 10:38am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,468
  • Sep 16, 2016 12:05pm Sep 16, 2016 12:05pm
Watch it grow.
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD -CORE1
USD/CHF USD/JPY USD/CAD -CORE2
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NICE WEEKEND TO ALL.
  • #3,469
  • Sep 16, 2016 1:40pm Sep 16, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting hrvoje
Hi guys, I read posts on this thread, and other linked posts to CC4 etc. but I can't really see how you trade the news. I tried it and lost every time. either my SL gets swiped, or TS triggered due to price jumping, or the spread goes through the roof and I can't make any profit. Is there some algorithmic process you go through that you could share here? Or any directions? I tried trading the news because I noticed when I trade with technical analysis it always get overriden by the fundamentals, so it doesn't really matter what I draw on the chart...
Hi - I cannot speak for the others on this forum but the best way when you are starting off is as follows:

If there is a large miss or estimatess got soundly beaten- I wait for a pull back and trade the direction of that trend.
Works before with major events like - CPI, GDP, NFP- things that CBs are looking at.
You only have to look at the CPI figures today from the US.
Cable was off 120 pips I think

good luck
  • #3,470
  • Sep 16, 2016 10:45pm Sep 16, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} In addition to the multiterminal for executing the trade, I open a regular MT4 station to watch the news trade on and to host the Management EA. I use this EA differently than most. It is meant to close part of you position at different increments of profit. I use it to place a stop at Entry price plus one pip. You can download the EA here: http://www.mediafire.com/?qboa1w0jzui First_Target: This is the first take profit target, in pips, that you specify. Target_Increment: Once the first profit target is reached, the next target will increment...
Ok. I've digested it. Just a couple of questions then I'm out to try this on my own!
1. When you're quoting pips, are you quoting for a 4 or 5 digit broker? ie. when you say 60, do you mean 0.0060 or 0.00060 add or subtract to get TP?
2. Do you place stop orders X number of pips out from current price or at a current time/price? Do you watch to see where price is moving a minute or 2 before the news release then go in that direction?
Thanks for your patience!
  • #3,471
  • Sep 16, 2016 11:37pm Sep 16, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
{quote} Ok. I've digested it. Just a couple of questions then I'm out to try this on my own! 1. When you're quoting pips, are you quoting for a 4 or 5 digit broker? ie. when you say 60, do you mean 0.0060 or 0.00060 add or subtract to get TP? 2. Do you place stop orders X number of pips out from current price or at a current time/price? Do you watch to see where price is moving a minute or 2 before the news release then go in that direction? Thanks for your patience!
My friend, I do not use this EA.
I use the adviser who trawls profit.
Entrance to the transaction market order of 1-3 seconds before the news.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,472
  • Sep 16, 2016 11:52pm Sep 16, 2016 11:52pm
US Federal Reserve Meeting
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement will be released on Wednesday September 21st at 14.00 EST.
As well as the statement, the FOMC will release its latest economic projections and the interest rate forecasts of individual FOMC members known as the ‘dot plot’. Chair Yellen will also hold a press conference at 14.30 EST.
Market expectations of an increase in interest rates moved higher following hawkish comments in late August from vice-chair Fischer and Yellen’s remarks that the case for higher interest rates had strengthened, but expectations have faded again with the chances of a move next week seen at less than 15% according to futures markets.
The FOMC is usually very reluctant to increase interest rates without the move being substantially priced in, although there is a greater element of uncertainty surrounding this meeting given mixed signals.
There will clearly be increased divisions within the committee with most of the regional Fed Presidents calling for a near-term increase in rates and 8 of the 12 banks called for a discount rate hike in August. The Fed Governors overall are more cautious with notably dovish rhetoric from Brainard and Tarullo.
The overall labour-market data is strong enough to justify an increase in rates and the main debate will be around inflation and the best approach to extend the economic expansion.
Dovish members would see the inflation and growth risks as biased to the downside and preach patience with little risk in waiting for further evidence.
The more hawkish members will warn that prolonging the period of ultra-low interest rates will lead to further imbalances, increasing the risk that the Fed will be forced to tighten much more aggressively in the medium term.
Forward guidance will inevitably be watched very closely and should tend to dampen market reaction. An unexpected decision to raise interest rates would tend to be balanced by dovish rhetoric with an insistence that interest rates would rise at a very slow pace.
If rates are left on hold, the hawkish members on the FOMC will certainly demand some tough rhetoric and strong hints over future hikes.
Whatever the outcome, there is a high risk of dissenting votes, especially if rates are left on hold.
The dot plots will be very important with a focus on the near-term projections and the medium-term projections, which were again downgraded at the June meeting.
The bond market reaction will be watched very closely given the risk of a long-term sell-off on fears the Fed is behind the curve if there is a relatively dovish statement.

Bank of Japan Policy Decision
The Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday September 21st. There is no fixed time, but is likely to be around 22.30 EST Tuesday.
As well as the regular policy decision, the Bank of Japan will also announce the outcome of its detailed policy review that was announced at the previous meeting. This review was effectively ordered by the government due to continued frustration over the inability to raise inflation levels.
Given the policy review, there is even more uncertainty than usual surrounding the outcome and potential for policy changes. There looks to be a majority support for action, but certainly a lack of consensus on the best way forward.
There is the possibility that the programme of bond purchases will be expanded, although there are already substantial concerns over the amount of securities held by the central bank.
There is also the potential for a further cut in interest rates, although this would also be very controversial given criticism of January’s move to introduce negative rates.
Any changes to the inflation target will also be an important focus with the two-year target period liable to be dropped.
There will inevitably be important divisions within the central bank policy committee with Governor Kuroda likely to face dissenting votes whatever the outcome.
There has also been a move by the bank to steepen the yield curve in order to alleviate pressures within the financial sector and support the banks. Further commentary on the yield curve will also be very important for sentiment and global bonds.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Meeting
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday September 22nd (17.00 EST Wednesday).
The RBNZ cut interest rates to 2.0% at the previous policy meeting.
The commentary on financial stability will be important within the statement given that the bank remains uneasy surrounding the housing sector, especially in Auckland. If macro-prudential policies prove ineffective in curbing excessive borrowing, there will be substantial barriers to further easing.
Commentary on the economy will be important, especially as there has been a strong recent recovery in dairy prices. The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction will be released on Wednesday around 10.00 EST, after strong gains at the previous three auctions.
The exchange rate has also weakened from 15-month highs against the dollar, which will provide some net relief to the RBNZ.
There is the potential for the bank to be more optimistic surrounding the outlook, but probably maintain an easing bias given continued fears that the inflation rate is too low.

Eurozone Flash PMI
The latest Eurozone flash PMI data will be released on Friday September 23rd at 04.00 EST.
The individual data for France and Germany will be released at 03.00 EST and 03.30 EST respectively.
The August Eurozone PMI data was generally disappointing with a small retreat in the manufacturing index and only a marginal advance in the services sector.
The French manufacturing sector remained in contraction and there was a sharp decline in the German services-sector data to the lowest level since early 2015.
Given the very supportive monetary policy, there will be further fears over disappointing data amid fears that structural weakness and political stresses are continuing to undermine activity.
Any further deterioration in the Eurozone data this month would increase fears surrounding the Eurozone outlook. There would be additional pressure for a further policy easing by the ECB and greater demands for more aggressive fiscal policy action

Canada Consumer Prices
The latest Canadian CPI inflation data will be released on Friday September 23rd at 08.30 EST.
In the latest Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, the bank stated that ‘on balance, the risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July’.
The latest inflation data will, therefore, be watched closely to assess whether the downside risks are evident in the latest data. There will be data on headline and core consumer prices with the Bank of Canada core inflation reading significant.
Notably weak data will be needed to push the bank towards an easing of monetary policy.
The latest retail sales data will also be released at the same time.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,473
  • Sep 17, 2016 12:16pm Sep 17, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} My friend, I do not use this EA. I use the adviser who trawls profit. Entrance to the transaction market order of 1-3 seconds before the news.
Thanks for sharing your opinion. May i know which EA do you use and which broker allow this news trading ? thanks
  • #3,474
  • Sep 17, 2016 9:02pm Sep 17, 2016 9:02pm
Quoting ronald_fsm
{quote} Thanks for sharing your opinion. May i know which EA do you use and which broker allow this news trading ? thanks
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http://www.forexfactory.com/brokers.php
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,475
  • Edited 11:27am Sep 18, 2016 11:12am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} {image} {image} http://www.forexfactory.com/brokers.php
thanks for your informations. i see a lot of broker on the link you give. which broker do you use or you recommend for this strategy?
Do you straddle the news or 1 OP only ? thanks a lot for your sharing
  • #3,476
  • Sep 18, 2016 12:11pm Sep 18, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting ronald_fsm
{quote} thanks for your informations. i see a lot of broker on the link you give. which broker do you use or you recommend for this strategy? Do you straddle the news or 1 OP only ? thanks a lot for your sharing
All the answers to your questions are in this topic.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,477
  • Sep 18, 2016 12:13pm Sep 18, 2016 12:13pm
Wednesday
21:00
21/9/16
US interest rate CRITICAL
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
9% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,478
  • Sep 18, 2016 12:19pm Sep 18, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting vvFish
... USDJPY Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute ....
...and direction is?
  • #3,479
  • Sep 18, 2016 1:42pm Sep 18, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} ...and direction is?
price chart.....
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,480
  • Sep 18, 2016 5:29pm Sep 18, 2016 5:29pm
Vvfish Can you post a link to the post that has the rules for the way you guys trade the news?? Thanks!
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
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