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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #61
  • Sep 14, 2016 10:40am Sep 14, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Lock
{quote} In order to continue higher we need current value above or overlapping yesterday pit session value. Now current Pit POC is at the open price 3173. We need to stay around here (3200 zone or higher) for at least 4 periods in order to move this POC here and consequently in order to move the value higher. It's 17:24 +1 GMT. We have to stay around here or higher up to 19:30. If instead you see price moving and stay below 3191 zone (yesterday pit unch) watch out for your long positions. Please note that 3191 is the major POC of the last price...
Lock,

I tried the indicator, very interesting. Quick question, where does the font file go? I cannot seem to locate it in my MT4 data folder.
  • #62
  • Sep 14, 2016 10:41am Sep 14, 2016 10:41am
My SL set to 1.3191 wouldn't want to be greedy.

I stumbled upon this and thought it will be very useful for everyone/anyone concerning the name of this Thread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_profile
  • #63
  • Sep 14, 2016 10:47am Sep 14, 2016 10:47am
Quoting Lock
{quote} This is not an easy market at all. So don't worry about it. The difficulty of this market comes from the lack of partecipation of bigger timeframes. Being this market totally weak above and below it is very hard to find a clear edge in to it.
Not worried. I clearly understand the risk involved and I'm loving it... In fact, I feel lucky being part of this thread/forum.
  • #64
  • Edited 11:16am Sep 14, 2016 10:55am | Edited 11:16am
In the following chart you will see the current daily situation. The profiles here are the sum of all the session profiles. As you see today value is inside yesterday value. And price is around the major POC from the 15 of August. No way for current value to move above yesterday value. (in the daily profiles)

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The situation is different if you look at the session profiles. In this case the current value could overlap higher the yesterday pit session value, making eventually an "outside session value" But right now current pit value is overlapping to the low yesterday pit value, and price is still around the pole of attraction of 3191.

So the odds are not working in favour of this possibility.

Furthermore as you see, in order to move the value we need a migration of the current POC above yesterday POC. And in order to do so we should see price staying above current MAJOR POC at 3191. And this is not so easy considering its force. Anyway let's see.

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #65
  • Sep 14, 2016 11:23am Sep 14, 2016 11:23am
All this efforts are made in order to take out the weak balance high level at 3227 (Brexit low TAG by GB session and Tokyo session, just a pip below it.)
Above that we have the multi pass pit gap and all the weak move down from yesterday preUS and GB sessions. So if it reaches the top of the balance it could attempt something more. This more could generally work if the value will follow price. But if this is a trend day and the onetimeframing higher will be preserved, value could be less important.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #66
  • Edited 12:13pm Sep 14, 2016 11:40am | Edited 12:13pm
Again,it's all the same game. E period was inside bar of D period. F period attempted above, failed and then G period is now going down at the opposite side of this little balance.

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Note that we are again at the main POC. And the onetimeframing higher stopped because G period low took out F period low. Also if you look at the full us profile (preUS plus Pit US) you will see an other "p" shaped profile, meaning short covering.

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My opinion is that all this action has been made by weak participants and that if something is going to happen it will be after tomorrow big news. I'm off for today. Thank you very much indeed for your time and patience.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #67
  • Sep 14, 2016 12:29pm Sep 14, 2016 12:29pm
Quoting Lock
All this efforts are made in order to take out the weak balance high level at 3227 (Brexit low TAG by GB session and Tokyo session, just a pip below it.) Above that we have the multi pass pit gap and all the weak move down from yesterday preUS and GB sessions. So if it reaches the top of the balance it could attempt something more. This more could generally work if the value will follow price. But if this is a trend day and the onetimeframing higher will be preserved, value could be less important.
I'm sorry, I couldn't resist: eventually 3227 has been taken out.

Above it there is (as previously written) the multipass pit gap up to 3239. But I really don't know if it could have the strength to go even further, covering also some of the GB-preUS liquidation from yesterday.

Note that now the POC is right above the major POC at 3191, so it eventually migrated from downside. And consequently current pit value is now overlapping yesterday pit value.

Now I'm really off, have a nice continuation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #68
  • Edited 2:13pm Sep 14, 2016 12:36pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} I'm sorry, I couldn't resist: eventually 3227 has been taken out. Above it there is (as previously written) the multipass pit gap up to 3239. But I really don't know if it could have the strength to go even further, covering also some of the GB-preUS liquidation from yesterday. Note that now the POC is right above the major POC at 3191, so it eventually migrated from downside. And consequently current pit value is now overlapping yesterday pit value. Now I'm really off, have a nice continuation.
Yeah, unbelievable

But I think there will be coming back to the 3190 area

Best
D.P.

P.S.

Lock, what does HB line means?

EDITED. Yeah, it has been "SHORT COVERING" FOR SURE. NOW IT IS TIME TO ADD LONGS AT CORRECTION.
Hunting High and Low
  • #69
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:53pm Sep 14, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} I'm sorry, I couldn't resist: eventually 3227 has been taken out. Above it there is (as previously written) the multipass pit gap up to 3239. But I really don't know if it could have the strength to go even further, covering also some of the GB-preUS liquidation from yesterday. ....
I was relaxing watching a film but this is really too much. I think this is one of the most exact and incredible TAG ever experienced. Let me say not at the pip, but at the "pipette".

Anyway let's see tomorrow how this situation will develop.

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yeah, unbelievable But I think there will be coming back to the 3190 area Best D.P. P.S. Lock, what does HB line means? EDITED. Yeah, it has been "SHORT COVERING" FOR SURE. NOW IT IS TIME TO ADD LONGS AT CORRECTION.
HB: half back, or better: half way back. It is simply the mid price of a range. In this case is the mid price of a session. Or of a bracket.

Best regards and have a good night everyone. L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #70
  • Edited 2:43am Sep 15, 2016 1:21am | Edited 2:43am
PREOPENING MORNING REPORT

Let's start with a top-down perspective.

Monthly

On tuesday 09.06 price failed the firs attempt above the top of the August balance (33715).
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Then price went down from there, made a test below half back (mid price of the major bracket 31637), failed once, and went up again.
Attached Image


So in the monthly perspective, 2 things could happen now:

  1. coming back up to test again August high 33715, or
  2. making an other attempt downside below the half back 31637

In any case 33715 and 31637 are the most important references for monthly action right now.

Weekly

Weekly was in a one timeframing higher action for the last 4 periods (trend upwards), but then this week stopped it once, taking out the low of the last period. The trend could continue higher anyway, because one single stop for one timeframing action, could be only liquidation of some weak partecipants just in order to continue higher with more strength.

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Daily

Price is inside the top bracket, it tested the half back and fails there once right yesterday.

  1. It can testing again having success and then come down inside the lower bracket.
  2. In the case of a success price could eventually continue lower testin for the first time the Bracket low, since Brexit.
  3. Or use this bounce to test the top of the higher bracket for the first time since Brexit.

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Sessions

Above:
In the last price activity downside, starting since the poor high of Tuesday pit session 09.06, we managed to make 7 poor highs in a row from different sessions. This make a possible retracement of all of them a concrete possibility. The only obstacles to this correction are the current GB gaps down from 09.08 and 09.13. If price will remove them, the odds are in favour for a continuation upside in order to remove all the weak partecipants coming down from Tuesday 09.06.
Also the Pit gap down could offer some resistance, but if we come above it with GB session then it will be a target in a possible retracement down made (after the correction of tuesday high) by a pit session.
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Below:
if we make an other attempt downside, below the major daily bracket half back (31637)
price could enter a zone of firecracker effect, meaning that the removal of the first stops downside could lead to the removal of the following downside stops and so on. This is possible because the possible weak references below are very close one each other. Note that the move up from the 15 of August left behind it something like 11 poor lows in a row. This is extraordinary.

Possible targets if it test down again succesfully.

  1. 31375 09.14 pit session poor low
  2. 31295 09.01 GB session poor low
  3. 31275 08.31 Tokyo session poor low
  4. 3072 08.30 Pit session poor low
  5. 30634 08.30 GB session poor low
  6. 3059 08.29 preUS session poor low
  7. 30335 08.22 Tokyo session poor low
  8. 3023 08.19 preUS+pit US composite poor low
  9. 29585 08.16 pit US poor low
  10. 28785 08.15 Tokyo session poor low
  11. and finally 28655 08.15 Pit session poor low

AUSDX

A final note is needed here. Because obviuosly we are not trading in a vacuum.
USD made 3 attempts in a row to stay above the balance (gray zone underligns it in the chart) This was an inside day of a previous day. Note that we are in a one timeframing environment for the last 5 periods, so it look like we are in a trend. But watch out, if it fails again we have good possibilities too retrace all of this move upside because the lows are very close one each other and this sistuation could lead to a fire cracker effect, where the first stop will trigger the second and the second the third one and so on.. If instead eventuallu the breackout will succeed then we have a lot of targets above and we could assist to a very sharp move upside.

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #71
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:07am Sep 15, 2016 2:07am
Quoting Lock
PREOPENING MORNING REPORT Let's start with a top-down perspective. Monthly On tuesday 09.06 price failed the firs attempt above the top of the August balance (33715). {image} Then price went down from there, made a test below half back (mid price of the major bracket 31637), failed once, and went up again. {image} So in the monthly perspective, 2 things could happen now: coming back up to test again August high 33715, or making an other attempt downside below the half back 31637 In any case 33715 and 31637 are the most important references for monthly...
I wish I could be able to contribute.... Will the cable still do more testing towards 1.31** ?
It has already started moving towards the north and the GBP red news is coming.
  • #72
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:58am Sep 15, 2016 2:58am
Quoting actionmoney
{quote} I wish I could be able to contribute.... Will the cable still do more testing towards 1.31** ? It has already started moving towards the north and the GBP red news is coming.
If I may suggest: don't be too anxious to trade. Let this market shake out. In anycase, read again the report: try to define at least three possible scenarios and prepare your self psychologically to those eventualities. All of them. Then do nothing. Observe the market and evaluate if what is going on is in the direction of one of your plans. If so, make your position and then monitor for continuation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #73
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:03am Sep 15, 2016 3:03am
On micro scale, note that current GB session opened inside yesterday rang (at the top of it) Tested above, found nothing and went back to the yesterday GB POC at 3204. As always when you are in a balance, there is an attempt above it and it fails the target is at the opposite side of that balance. This is a very normal trade for minor timeframes. Note also that we are not so far from the major POC at 3191.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #74
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:06am Sep 15, 2016 3:06am
Also note that 32014 (current B C periods poor low) is also yesterday London close price. So it is very weak At the same time a bounce here means that the partecipants of this market are currently totally weak in both directions, because a bigger timeframe selling, will never let price stops exactly at this weak level.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #75
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:10am Sep 15, 2016 3:10am
Quoting Lock
Also note that 32014 (current B C periods poor low) is also yesterday London close price. So it is very weak At the same time a bounce here means that the partecipants of this market are currently totally weak in both directions, because a bigger timeframe selling, will never let price stops exactly at this weak level.
And infact C period went up exactly at half back that is also the open price of this session 31165 (very very weak environment: watch out)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #76
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:13am Sep 15, 2016 3:13am
Try if you like, to study the behaviour of your competitors in this market. Sellers from above yesterday GB session are pretty weak. Sellers from current hb/open are even weaker. Buyers from poor low B C periods/ yesterday close are even weaker then those who sell from hb/open. Do you see this picture?
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #77
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:20am Sep 15, 2016 3:20am
As you see the poor B C low/yesterday close has been already tested. Did you see the reaction below it? Well, it was automatic buy at round 3200. An other weak action.
Please note that today Sydney/Tokyo and GB sessions are removing the anomalies of yesterday short covering pit action. We are now at the top of the third one (if you see the yesterday pit profile) the last one is at yesterday pit open (3173) This does not mean that we have to correct them. It is only a thing to put in your continuous odds calculation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #78
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:28am Sep 15, 2016 3:28am
A fast micro recap.

B period went down from yesterday open at 3225
C period went down from half back/open price of current session 32165
the same C period tested below the initial balance B period low and went up from a round number 3200.

These are all weak references used by weak hands money traders. You may trade them if you are fast enough but you should know at least who is ruling the market, who are your current competitors and consequently what kind of risk you are investing in a trade alongside those actions.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #79
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:36am Sep 15, 2016 3:36am
...as you see, those who were selling from those weak positions have been punished. Now 3225 and 32165 sellers are no more in the game.
Note that the GB gap down from 09.13 has been removed with this fast retracement.
And, as written yesterday, the correction of a gap is generally a good opportunity for weak timeframes. (sell above it if it was a gap down or buy below it if it was a gap higher) You have seen exactly the same reaction when yesterday pit session went down and eventually removed the old gap up. Just below it, weak timeframes automatically bought.

In the yesterday case, anyhow, we were also testing the major daily bracket half back. So in that case it is possible that other and bigger timeframes added their positions to those of the weaker timeframes.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #80
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:54am Sep 15, 2016 3:54am
Two consideration about tonight Sydney/Tokyo action.
Sydney partecipants pile on the weak late pit action upwards and eventually started the correction of it continued by the Tokyo partecipants. Now all this was a clear liquidation of the weak late action from yesterday pit session, as written, (information 1) and a the same time this happened when China banks were in holiday.(information 2) This does not mean we are going to take them out right now or today or.. It means that this action was particularly weak, both for the reasons beneath it (liquidation of old weak business) and for the weakness of its partecipants (traders acting with a lower liquidity in Asia at that moment)
Take this information forward if you like.

PS: and now we add to this the weak GB high exactly at the top of the old gap down from 09.13 (top of D period tagging the bottom of 09.13 GB session)

I'm off for some time. See you later.
Ubi maior minor cessat
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