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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:38am Sep 14, 2016 1:16am | Edited 4:38am
Good mornng traders (+1GMT or similar),

I'm going to continue here what I was doing in the main GBPUSD thread in order to have more continuation in my analysis. It will be, in my intention, a sort of one way chat room. This does not mean other could not partecipate, obviously. It means that those who will join this, will do it with the purpose to comment, question and eventually improve what I'll write.

I'm not a "profile" trader, but I use market profile to organize market information and data. So this thread is dedicated to those who do or want to do the same as me.** It's for professionals. And it's for GBPUSD traders. So if you are going to write something here it will be about cable or in relation to cable.

Please do not start to ask me about market profile, what is it, how to use it, etc. This is not the purpose of this thread.

Furthermore, please do not write immediately something like "thank you, good idea, interesting, useless or whatever" in this first thread page. I will start as soon as possible with my analysis and then, please, do nothing up to that moment.

Best regards and good trading.


**You need a market profile tool with normal sessions and letters to follow this thread. I currently use this but you may find many other sources if you like.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2
  • Sep 14, 2016 1:19am Sep 14, 2016 1:19am
I love this.
  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2016 1:32am Sep 14, 2016 1:32am
PREOPENING MORNING REPORT

Yesterday was in my opinion a liquidation day. GB and preUS went down abruptly leaving a very poor structure behind them. Eventually Pit session open with a substantial gap downside and made a balance session right below it. The daily profile is a classical "b" shape one and this seems to confirm the assumption about the meaning of this move down. Obviously this does not mean it cannot continue further down side. It means that this move is "old" business, not "new" business. And consequently it means it is weak and could be retraced before or later. So, carry this information forward.

Now inventory are very short.

Some data here for the following hours.

  1. We got anomalies for GB session at 32775-3287, 32975-3303 and 3309-3314. Anomalies for preUS at 3217-3223, 3248-3251.
  2. Price is above 31637 (main daily bracket half back) tagged at the pip by Tokyo low. (Automatic buy right there)
  3. Main nearest POC is at 3137 and right below it we got a GB poor low at 31295 and a Tokyo poor low at 31275.
  4. For pit session a zone of interest should be the overlapping gap zone at 32155-3239.
  5. Also preUS left behind a 1 single pip gap at 3269. This is a very weak reference.

If GB will open around here it will do with a substantial gap lower. In this case price could skip the main weakness left above. But let's see what Tokyo is able to do in its last two periods.

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  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2016 1:33am Sep 14, 2016 1:33am
Quoting actionmoney
I love this.
Hi! You're welcome.
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  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2016 1:54am Sep 14, 2016 1:54am
Tokyo tagging now the brexit low at 3227. First preUS anomaly at 3217-3223 corrected. Yesterday pit session high tested once above 32155.

So Tokyo ranged inside two precise references, both of them are consequently weak levels. (3227 above and 31637 below)
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  • #6
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:04am Sep 14, 2016 2:04am
GB opened with a gap down (as easily predicted) and tags immediately the brexit low, just one pip above Tokyo high. This is weak clearly, but at the same time is below a gap. A gap is a form of excess, so if it will resist it will offer some form of resistance in order to go upwards and take out the anomalies, correcting the yesterday GB weak structure. So let's see how it is going to develop from here.

I generally do not give a lot of consideration to Tokyo session profile, but in this case I have to mention the extremely elongation of it, clearly a partial short covering of yesterday inventories. So this is old business not new business.
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  • #7
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:30am Sep 14, 2016 2:30am
If you are selling this you had to do it after the weak test of Tokyo high. And your structural SL should be right above it, somewhere in the GB gap down. Anyway the exact tag of a reference is a precise sign of weakness because those who act in this way are weak. For this reason you may commit in this sort of trade only if you are fast enough to entry and fast enough to esc if something goes wrong. I'm not the only one to know that this is ruled by weak hands.

Now we got a poor low made bay A B lows. An other clear sign of weakness.
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  • #8
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:38am Sep 14, 2016 2:38am
Quoting Lock
If you are selling this you had to do it after the weak test of Tokyo high. And your structural SL should be right above it, somewhere in the GB gap down. Anyway the exact tag of a reference is a precise sign of weakness because those who act in this way are weak. For this reason you may commit in this sort of trade only if you are fast enough to entry and fast enough to esc if something goes wrong. I'm not the only one to know that this is ruled by weak hands. Now we got a poor low made bay A B lows. An other clear sign of weakness.
Is the GB current low a sign of weakness for the next session that will come @ 09:30 AM GMT+1 ?
  • #9
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:47am Sep 14, 2016 2:47am
Quoting actionmoney
{quote} Is the GB current low a sign of weakness for the next session that will come @ 09:30 AM GMT+1 ?
GB session already started at 9:00 +1GMT. It was a sort of weakness because if the sellers were stronger they will never stop at A period low in a situation like this. Now we retraced most of the Tokyo session partial correction of yesterday inventories. This GB action has been a liquidation of the overnight activity.* And we are now exactly at the yesterday pit POC. remember that right now both 3227 (Brexit low/ current GB session high) and 31637-8 (main daily bracket half back/Tokyo low) are weak as they are both exact references. So up to now all this market is ruled by weak hands.

*One of the most difficult situation is when a sharp move liquidate or cover a previus market activity. Traders could read strenght and conviction where instead there was only old business acting: and short covering and liquidation are old business.

This does not mean a liquidation or a short covering could not eventually morph in something different and more serius.
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  • #10
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:11am Sep 14, 2016 3:11am
For the upcoming action (considering also the 2 big news), let me say that we could have (at least) 3 possible scenarios:

  1. Remaining in balance testing above and/or below the weak references 3227 (Brexit low/ current GB session high) and 31637-8 (main daily bracket half back/Tokyo low). Failing in both directions.
  2. Attempt above, retracing current gap down in order to correct the weak references above it up to the 33595 zone initially and then to the 3444 weak zone.
  3. Go down, and accelerate in order to take out the GB/Tokyo poor lows at the 3127 zone and eventually lead the price down to extraordinary weak 3058 zone.

Note that we are in balance right now, so balance rules are: testing above and fail (in this case the natural target is the opposite side of the balance) or testing above and accelerate. The same for the downside. Testing below and fail, or testing above and accelerate. The top and the bottom of the balance are clearly the weak references 3227 (Brexit low/ current GB session high) and 31637-8 (main daily bracket half back/Tokyo low). But also note that C period is inside bar of B period. If it will remain like this up to the news you can make the same consideration for this narrow balance (if you are fast enough to do so)

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  • #11
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:40am Sep 14, 2016 3:40am
Quoting Lock
For the upcoming action (considering also the 2 big news), let me say that we could have (at least) 3 possible scenarios: Remaining in balance testing above and/or below the weak references 3227 (Brexit low/ current GB session high) and 31637-8 (main daily bracket half back/Tokyo low). Failing in both directions. Attempt above, retracing current gap down in order to correct the weak references above it up to the 33595 zone initially and then to the 3444 weak zone. Go down, and accelerate in order to take out the GB/Tokyo poor lows at the 3127 zone...
Lock, that is great you have your own thread, and that is great you still have enthusiasm for publishing your thoughts here.
I understand your motivation to have experience in identifying market behaviour as much as possible.
But if you are saying about periods A, B, C, atc., I think, there would be great to see a picture (a piece of it at least) of the TPO chart.
That matter is that just a few of persons, who is reading your posts, have understanding of what you are saying.
Even I, understanding your thoughts, would like to see the fragments of the TPO chart for better vision of market.

That would be very appreciated.

Best
D.P.

P.D. I do not use TPOs as such
Hunting High and Low
  • #12
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:44am Sep 14, 2016 3:44am
Now price is attempting a breakout from C period inside bar of B period. We could go to the test the top of the balance at the brexit low. Note anyway that current period D high tagged exactly the open price. Not a great sign of strenght. And now we have two weak references at the top of this balance (brexit high TAG and open TAG)
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  • #13
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:47am Sep 14, 2016 3:47am
Quoting Lock
For the upcoming action (considering also the 2 big news), let me say that we could have (at least) 3 possible scenarios: Remaining in balance testing above and/or below the weak references 3227 (Brexit low/ current GB session high) and 31637-8 (main daily bracket half back/Tokyo low). Failing in both directions. Attempt above, retracing current gap down in order to correct the weak references above it up to the 33595 zone initially and then to the 3444 weak zone. Go down, and accelerate in order to take out the GB/Tokyo poor lows at the 3127...
so basically................................ it can go either up or down?

any pictures?
  • #14
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:53am Sep 14, 2016 3:53am
Quoting Don96
{quote} so basically................................ it can go either up or down? any pictures?
here is one picture....
Attached Image
  • #15
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:56am Sep 14, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Don96
{quote} so basically................................ it can go either up or down? any pictures?
Absolutely it can go up or down from here. As written we have to wait at least the test above or below this balance in order to better evaluate the odds. For now I can see that this action is weak because of the weak references it is using(up and down). If you are buying from C period balance you are now in a risky position because price went up and down breakeven multiple time (meaning lack of conviction upwards. At the same time if you are selling the possible failure above C period high you are leaving behind two very weak references so you are acting alongside a weak action.
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  • #16
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:56am Sep 14, 2016 3:56am
Quoting kostas1
{quote} here is one picture.... {image}
  • #17
  • Sep 14, 2016 3:57am Sep 14, 2016 3:57am
Quoting kostas1
{quote} here is one picture.... {image}
Please, anyone, don't fill this thread with funny things. It's a place for professionals.
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  • #18
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:01am Sep 14, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Absolutely it can go up or down from here. As written we have to wait at least the test above or below this balance in order to better evaluate the odds. For now I can see that this action is weak because of the weak references it is using(up and down). If you are buying from C period balance you are now in a risky position because price went up and down breakeven multiple time (meaning lack of conviction upwards. At the same time if you are selling the possible failure above C period high you are leaving behind two very weak references...
well i don't day trade... but i don't understand your strategy, you always seem to have 'its going up or down' option...

im only poking because there hasnt been another trader that speaks about trading the way you do
  • #19
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:04am Sep 14, 2016 4:04am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Lock, that is great you have your own thread, and that is great you still have enthusiasm for publishing your thoughts here. I understand your motivation to have experience in identifying market behaviour as much as possible. But if you are saying about periods A, B, C, atc., I think, there would be great to see a picture (a piece of it at least) of the TPO chart. That matter is that just a few of persons, who is reading your posts, have understanding of what you are saying. Even I, understanding your thoughts, would like to see the fragments...
Hi Dr. Phoenix, thanks for your kind words here.
In order to speed up my work here, anyone is interested should use a market profile tool providing the normal sessions profile and letters. I really have no time to prepare charts during the day. I'll surely do next days as early morning reports. In the meantime if you like can use this in order to visualize the same I do.

You're welcome, Best L.
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  • #20
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:08am Sep 14, 2016 4:08am
Quoting Don96
{quote} well i don't day trade... but i don't understand your strategy, you always seem to have 'its going up or down' option... im only poking because there hasnt been another trader that speaks about trading the way you do
You are correct. I always have at least 3 plans in any environment. Then I try to find a ruling reason among them. If I'll not find it, I step away. If I'm committed in one trade, because I think to know what is going one, and something goes wrong in it, with the other possible scenarios I'm well prepared to react. That's the reason of my approach. (That by the way is the approach of my mentor Jim Dalton)
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