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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,961
  • Sep 6, 2016 12:16pm Sep 6, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Good idea . The troll has been on my ignore list for a while. Don't know what he is posting . But a thread where Sisse are in control should be a good solution. {image}
Agree.
PVSRA
  • #142,962
  • Edited 1:02pm Sep 6, 2016 12:35pm | Edited 1:02pm
Whatever! - LOL

Just trying to help guys - And all my recent posts are both relevent and trading related.

AND this IS a public thread and Ken the TS is/was a mate.
  • #142,963
  • Sep 6, 2016 12:58pm Sep 6, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} What do we expect from ECB ? What are "the real" expectations for Sept FOMC ? EURUSD almost unlocked +1.17xx rally during summer , what happened ? Yellen was hawkish , didn't she lose credibility with such loose policy ! so why now the market started to believe her ? US data pattern is suspicious sometimes, a full package of green numbers in a row turns red in no time thus usd get caught in chop over and over What was with the NFP on friday , FED member said it is ok with 125k-150k suddenly market is inline with that . The knee jerk reaction...
wouldn't that mean that EURGBP is Stong Sell and a better option to trade

Thought you said my posts were irrelevent - apparently not so much
  • #142,964
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:09pm Sep 6, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} You keep posting irrelevant content in this thread , you have been suspended once , you can get banned forever . I am fed up using the cleanup feature . Even Twee advised me to put you on ignore but I can't ignore the fact that you're spamming the thread with nonsense . As a last resort ,

a shout for Sisse to open his own thread and have full control over spammers and trolls .


Good idea.
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #142,965
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:31pm Sep 6, 2016 1:31pm
Would love to see 1.1281x level for bears to take control .... lets c how stuff goes ....my many trade's got s/o ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,966
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:27pm Sep 6, 2016 2:27pm
Yeah I suggested this in the past to Sisse but he didn't seem interested in opening a new thread. Indeed would be a lot easier for him to manage spam/trolls. Just like what Gator did with his own thread. Every guy he "ignores" isn't allowed to post in the thread anymore. Easy solution and keeps everybody focused.
  • #142,967
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:31pm Sep 6, 2016 2:31pm
A close under .124X would be BEARISH?

In my opinion, the ISM # in manufacturing was a slight miss. Analysts were looking for 52 to 56 and target # was 54. 51 still shows growth and a slight miss. I know sisse said it was a big flop. Is it more of a big flop due to manufacturing being something to watch more so after RMT is out of the picture? I think everyone is looking at this meaning a contraction and def no rate hike for Sept.

Looking forward to seeing how to interpret this news with ebb and flow for the ECB on Thurs.
  • #142,968
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:35pm Sep 6, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting sisse
.... To the other side 94.8x [check] as steel reference support with Yellen bulls from last week getting wiped out.
...and that was pretty much it with Dollar holding for now 94.8x. Equities as expected trading all to the long side (good and bad news = good news) while a very good shake intraday across the FX board with Dollar completing the NFP flow to 94.8x .

UJ back to last break out and here is trailing time as there is no point riskwise on holding remaining positions for much longer. GU sitting to the tick 1.343x for a quick potential sweep while Euro cleaning soft hands but stuck in the middle of the middle for the middle in the never ending range. The textbook of chop in neutral but its a ticking bomb as the mid term range is unsustainable for much longer.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,969
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:38pm Sep 6, 2016 2:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and that was pretty much it with Dollar holding for now 94.8x. Equities as expected trading all to the long side (good and bad news = good news) while a very good shake intraday across the FX board with Dollar completing the NFP flow to 94.8x . UJ back to last break out and here is trailing time as there is no point riskwise on holding remaining positions for much longer. GU sitting to the tick 1.343x for a quick potential sweep while Euro cleaning soft hands but stuck in the middle of the middle for the middle in the never ending range....
Imho this is bullish Daily close EU and Gator may as well get this 1.17 sometime in September. He is waiting for months now.
PVSRA
  • #142,970
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:09pm Sep 6, 2016 4:09pm
Curious to know if the next incarnation of the exercises started in this thread by a discussion between imarich1 and sisse (what feels like a while ago) will be the answer for those of us asking about a new one moderated by sisse.
  • #142,971
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:15pm Sep 6, 2016 4:15pm
...and we rolled, euro bulls barely held but held the hand at the end. FED September hikes odds plummeted one more time after the poor round of US numbers last month.

It's becoming repetitive and for the third (fourth?) time in the last year, every time FED is all ready to pull the trigger a new round of bad numbers (last time was that massive NFP flop [worst in few years] and the last one was the flop in GDP,etc etc) hit the wires making the FED chicken out and expectations to keep kicking the can.

The FED is getting stuck in the loop and as expected the longer it overstays the harder it will become. Even a soft wind from Europe with elections around the corner will leave the FED holding a major fck up in the monetary policy front for next year ....

Whatever the case, Euro in the driver seat until ECB that has been particularly quiet since Brexit letting the numbers and politicians talk first before taking further action. Equities snd commodities back on track while on the FX board euro to decide if we chop for a few more weeks....

Actively managing Sterling and Yen while on the rest of the board same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Imho this is bullish Daily close EU and Gator may as well get this 1.17 sometime in September. He is waiting for months now.
What would be the flip if you swap to outlook long ? ... ..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,972
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:40pm Sep 6, 2016 4:40pm
Looks very OB to me, now flag.....on the 60m.

I would not be surprised if this ends like a fail final flag (probably by hitting 3481 first and then reverse but not necessary)........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 30 KB
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #142,973
  • Sep 6, 2016 5:20pm Sep 6, 2016 5:20pm
Quoting sisse
What would be the flip if you swap to outlook long ? ... .. sisse
Hey Fisher I like 1340 what do you got for that?
  • #142,974
  • Sep 6, 2016 5:54pm Sep 6, 2016 5:54pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Imho this is bullish Daily close EU and Gator may as well get this 1.17 sometime in September. He is waiting for months now.
He's been waiting for 0.8xxx for longer
  • #142,975
  • Edited 9:52pm Sep 6, 2016 6:10pm | Edited 9:52pm
I suspect this is what sisse was hinting @ with bonds warning a few pages ago...surprised noone commented

Notice what happened with the correlation end of 2015 @ first hike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #142,976
  • Edited 9:26pm Sep 6, 2016 9:14pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting Pharm0r
This is what sisse was hinting @ with bonds warning a few pages ago...surprised noone commented
Probably because not many of us understood exactly what he was implying

For extra perspective, here's a chart comparing IVV (S&P 500 ETF - blue line) and BND (Total US Bond Market ETF - black line) over the last year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IVV_BND.JPG Size: 154 KB


Both markets seem to be well-correlated at the moment, as they have been for most of the year. And it's interesting that the 10-year T-note prices (on your chart) have been dropping since the start of August, but the BND prices (on my chart) have been fairly static. Can we derive anything from this, I wonder?

If Sisse has a spare few minutes I'd really appreciate him going a bit deeper in to what he saw last week in the bond markets that spooked him, and what the implications might be for short or mid-term trading. I'm probably not the only one here who would benefit from this. Thanks.
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,977
  • Sep 6, 2016 9:50pm Sep 6, 2016 9:50pm
Hmmm perhaps I should not have assumed 10y. That is where I found the break of correlation that I believe sisse was referring to.

Also- everything I've ever read or researched for bond/stock correlation has always pointed me to the 10yr t notes...chalk that up for whatever it means.

But yes- I'd like to delve more into that specifically, which I'm sure sisse will consider either too advanced for these iterations or perhaps just not in the same scope of trading we are currently discussing in the thread. To me, it seems advanced.
  • #142,978
  • Sep 6, 2016 9:52pm Sep 6, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Hey Fisher I like 1340 what do you got for that?
I'm not sure, but I see the flip at 1.1280 in "Buy Short-term Outlook" and 1.1370 in "Buy Mid-Term Outlook".
  • #142,979
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:23pm Sep 6, 2016 11:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Hmmm perhaps I should not have assumed 10y.
No, you're absolutely right. 10-year is the most important one to track, as far as I know, and I'm sure the break in correlation you posted is the one he was talking about. This could indicate a reversal in US equities, or a correction at least, is just around the corner. In the recent past bond prices have tended to fall just before equities (but not always!), as can be seen on both our charts. But the fact that the Total Bond prices aren't falling yet, coupled with the recent weak US economic data which presumably means less chance of a September hike, might suggest that the S&P still has some room to the upside.

Yeah, this could be a bit too advanced here, and possibly irrelevant to the EUR.USD iterations. But Sisse likes a challenge and did a good job answering that "carry trade" question I asked a few pages ago

Edit: and here's another thing... if real money is pulling out of the 10-year bond market - as it looks like they have been since the start of August - then what are they buying instead? Not the S&P, because that's hardly moved!
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,980
  • Sep 7, 2016 1:02am Sep 7, 2016 1:02am
What would be the flip if you swap to outlook long ? ... .. sisse

Don't get me wrong, I am not touching mid term Outlook, but short term our TP area for longs might be interesting to observe today. ( not for entering long HTF- only for managing the trade, 1.18 was very precise HTF entry point )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily Long Flip.png Size: 63 KB
PVSRA
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