The Really Useless Thread

Buy please.

My answers were c,b,b with this expectation im gonna trade short

find a broker that trades units instead of lots, loophole that fifo doesnt apply. oanda is one, tda is another....or use a shady broker over seas. Ive used traders way with success and good withdrawls, however i have trouble trusting more than $1000 to overseas unregulated...

Suggest a good broker dude ... I want to switch from the recent one 

Table CLOSED

+++++Iteration 20 +++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.120x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"

-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP 1.140x -> STP 1.120x with undershoot or

-> LMT BUY 1.118x ​-> TP 1.128xx -> STP 1.108x with inline

assssssssss

RoelsMajor

Fisher755

Vorex

chester123

Ghandi

hoom

eborn

&

-> LMT STP SELL 1.110x -> TP1 => 1.100x | STP > 1.120x with overshoot or

-> LMT SELL 1.122x -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.132x with inline

Pharm0r

suntan

ExForX

goosebone

clayjay

Earleone

nutts

CommercialB

NorthTrader

ptoftangency

Fadhl

DexterMorgan

PAStalker

primejarvis

mayafx

Grinsakh

IMARICH1

Thanks all and GL...

sisse

Sisse,

I called for a Sell.

Just asked if there were three options as an overshoot is a sell, an undershoot is a buy and inline is a sell.

i know we can only pick one side but was just asking that it appeared maybe there was another option.

My flip for a BUY is 1240 and Sell is 1130 when you asked FLIP question for MAP.

...and here we go for a rather interesting NFP today.

--> On the fundamental side,

1. Nothing interesting in the macro numbers front. All numbers and sector are more than on track in the US. Employment is, in or by purely detail technicalities, in full employment so only a massive fck up will trigger some concerns about the economy.
2. However, on the monetary policy side this can be a rather KEY report for hikes.
   1. A solid report/overshoot will trigger RMT on rates expectations of Sep hikes and even if it flops in Sep a hike by the end of the year will be a done deal.
   2. A flop will short-circuit Yellen expectations and we'll leave us one more time in the status quo since last March.

In a nutshell what is in play is not FED 'data dependant' but taking the artificial support of markets 'free money dependant'. Here expecting a +/- inline to keep the same slow expectations building until FED September confirm if its now or in December.

--> On the technical side,

A rather dull levels in play for today which points any reaction to an over/undershoot could be very sharp and sensitive in the news flow. Impact of news is primarily expected on bonds, currencies and Gold while Equiites will pretty much stay in 'good news is good news and bad news is also good news' except in a major flop.

1. US equities (S&P) as expected sitting at 217x for the news which is the rain maker for the extension to fresh ATH. An overshoot will trigger a zigzag after the knee jerk reaction but in all other cases the extension has priority if trigger.
2. GOLD 1300.xx is the rain maker for the RMT play, any other outcome will just leave us in wide chop zone until further data.
3. Finally in FX. Dollar is the king today and is in FULL CONTROL of the board. DX 95.5x is today's rain maker. RMT for a direct and very sharp play to 98.55 and beyond with strong intermediate stop 97.3x for the actual September meeting. To the other side 94.8x as steel reference support with Yellen bulls from last week getting wiped out.

--> For the actual flows (euro only),

We have a LIVE iteration running that has ALL needed to answer this.

This time I let the floor and each one make their own flows mapping before the news. I hope this mini journey has been helpful to some or make your own ideas stronger and better.

If you went for 1A,2C, 2C or 1A,2B,3C or what have you ..this is time to do it for real and start swinging properly and with confidence. IF you are trading live GL. If you are in demo, make it a memorable and useful experience tracking your own flow trade.

If Euro is neutral both mid and short term:
--> 1. What will happen in the mid and short term outlook in the euro/usd if NFP has a strong overshoot?
--> 2. What will happen in the mid and short term outlook in the euro/usd if NFP has a strong undershoot?
-->3. What will happen in the mid and short term outlook in the euro/usd if NFP is +/- inline?

For the the levels. All in the iteration too

-> LMT STP BUY 1.130x -> TP 1.140x -> STP 1.120x with undershoot or

-> LMT BUY 1.118x ​-> TP 1.128xx -> STP 1.108x with inline

&

-> LMT STP SELL 1.110x -> TP1 => 1.100x | STP > 1.120x with overshoot or

-> LMT SELL 1.122x -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.132x with inline

GL all ...and lets see how it goes...

sisse

Miss on the headline and a soft report in wages....a bummer for currencies but opens equites to more free ride...

sisse

another short circuit for yellen bulls ...

-> Only update from NFP:

Reconfirming short and mid term outlook in Euro in neutral.

sisse

Out -20 in live. Didn't fancy holding out for the full iteration SL. Good luck longs!

Does the revision help at all since Non-Farm missed by some? I know one of the FED's voting members was saying if Non-Farm is 150k that this is sufficient still as good labor data considering the last two months.

sisse, never quite sure.... u mean euro or E/U?

on mid term:

cuz since jackson hole = we have USD mid term solid buy.

if we have euro neutral mid term =) solid buy (USD) + neutral (EUR) = solid sell on E/U?

or

we have E/U neutral mid term because of =) solid buy (USD) + buy (EUR)?

the cummulative revision is -1 so it does not really matter. they even have 100K as a comfort zone as far as I know. however, Its clear that the more =) the less uncertainty about the hike.

winner winner chicken dinner

Yes! I can stop hopping around now as I am officially done kicking my own ass on that one. Thanks for the perspective btw

All depends on your money situation and your location.

I can only tell you that I use TDAmeritrade (thinkorswim) which is expensive, and Traders Way for a current small account that I've been running the iterations on. Oanda is considered the big player on the USA side, but their quotes are often wrong- and for me that's an issue- however; they do trade in units on their web-based platform which bypasses fifo. I was using Interactive Brokers- but they raised their minimum account balance from $10 thousand to $10 million for forex...and at no point would I ever risk 10 million on forex even if I was a multi-millionaire. $250k is the max I would like to eventually risk on FX....after that there is so much more to invest in (real estate, angel investing, equities, etc)

In reality FIFO shouldnt even really be an issue if you're trading like most do in this thread.....for me...doesnt quite cut the mustard, but if forced to I could adjust to trade fifo

Thanks chester123!

It appears you and I took opposite sides this time. And, I was wrong on mine unless .124X holds this move and the data is interpreted diff. I know the DOLLAR is below .955X and EU below .124x. I am not understanding this at the moment. Unless, this month will be considered a chop zone for awhile.

You understand economics better than me so I don't understand what you mean about the cumulative revision is -.1 correlation

My main thought is JOBS are continuing to be added despite the Global slowdown so there has to be data that's skewed or not correct. 151K is a good number. Last Sept it was 171 and had about a 30K revision from the prior month. It appears we are on track with good data hit or miss a few months in between.

And that was pretty much it for the micro knee jerk reaction. Eyes on NY with Dollar sitting @.95.5x.

@chester123 ...sorry meant Eur/usd ... for future reference why should i change Euro as single currency when the report is nothing to do with it ? ....btw today's close Euro will take control of the pair...

On the iteration front. Both longs and short triggered. Surprise? not really in neutral isn't it ?

+++++Iteration 20 +++++

Euro currently trading @ 1.120x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"

update 1 (0 hours 0 days)

-> LMT BUY 1.118x ​[check] -> TP 1.128xx -> STP 1.108x with inline

assssssssss

RoelsMajor

Fisher755

Vorex

chester123

Ghandi

hoom

eborn

&

-> LMT SELL 1.122x [check] -> TP1 => 1.112x | STP > 1.132x with inline

Pharm0r

suntan

ExForX

goosebone

clayjay

Earleone

nutts

CommercialB

NorthTrader

ptoftangency

Fadhl

DexterMorgan

PAStalker

primejarvis

mayafx

Grinsakh

IMARICH1

aha. ok. nothing complex. you asked if the revision´s help. and the revisions in NFP are just -1 thousand. so in my view its irrelevant.

actually, im not trading this live - im playing the itineration on demo. For some reason I did not feel comfortable with this. Better learn first cuz it seems quite complex game this time.

Im just having some micro positions in equities after the NFP because my charts say there is some small room for final extension in very very short term - on DAX, FTSE and SP500 as well. after that Im gonna be looking for shorts on short and mid term.