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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,901
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:07am Sep 2, 2016 8:07am
Quoting sisse
And that was pretty much it for the micro knee jerk reaction. Eyes on NY with Dollar sitting @.95.5x. @chester123 ...sorry meant Eur/usd ... for future reference why should i change Euro as single currency when the report is nothing to do with it ? ....btw today's close Euro will take control of the pair... On the iteration front. Both longs and short triggered. Surprise? not really in neutral isn't it ? {quote} +++++Iteration 20 +++++ Euro currently trading @ 1.120x "Survival of the fittest |...
yes, yes, of course. would make no sense to change euro itself. just wanted to make sure there is no to me unkown impact on euro to be absolutely clear. thank you!
  • #142,902
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:10am Sep 2, 2016 8:10am
Thanks chester123!

Hoom I appreciated your response to my comment in a back post. I see you and chester123 took the opposite side so I am a little concerned here as you guys do well!

sisse,

What would have been an undershoot number for you? We missed by 30K. It appears you see -30K as still inline. Did the steady unemployment data come along side this as well? Trying to understand how you took this info on the miss as inline.

Thanks
  • #142,903
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:11am Sep 2, 2016 8:11am
Anyways- that does it for the week, no point in trading today.

Have a good weekend!
  • #142,904
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:12am Sep 2, 2016 8:12am
Bonds starting to break correlation before the open after the report. Watch-out the close today as this can be a strong signal of what about to come for the fall. On the rest of the board, markets ignoring the report on the opening range will pretty much kill the week with Europe going home ....

Nothing see until then so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,905
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:13am Sep 2, 2016 8:13am
As tricky as price action at the moment , the only level as reference for the roll play is 1.118x , closes above would make a simpler ride for euro bulls and set direction short term , same map as it has been pointed out in the last pages of this thread . What would really surprise me at this point is any high TF closes under it .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #142,906
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:21am Sep 2, 2016 8:21am
Quoting sisse
Bonds starting to break correlation before the open after the report. Watch-out the close today as this can be a strong signal of what about to come for the fall. On the rest of the board, markets ignoring the report on the opening range will pretty much kill the week with Europe going home .... Nothing see until then so same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
is it because bonds are the only ones taking the FED seriously?
  • #142,907
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:25am Sep 2, 2016 8:25am
Quoting chester123
{quote} is it because bonds are the only ones taking the FED seriously?
Well not really 'taking the FED' seriously but they are actually seeing the huge storm in the horizon if things in the monetary policy front doesn't dramatically change soon. Free money is handicapping and distorting the macro flows and the economy.

We have mentioned a few times already Japan (in this exactly front) will be the next big thing in financial crisis from next year onwards...

My 2 cents, never ever ignore bonds signals before macro moves ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,908
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:33am Sep 2, 2016 8:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well not really 'taking the FED' seriously but they are actually seeing the huge storm in the horizon if things in the monetary policy front doesn't dramatically change soon. Free money is handicapping and distorting the macro flows and the economy. We have mentioned a few times already Japan (in this exactly front) will be the next big thing in financial crisis from next year onwards... My 2 cents, never ever ignore bonds signals before macro moves ... sisse
but on this account -

1. FED may be the only one moving in the right direction (we have discussed the limits for FED - monetary divergence and its implications!) - but if FED moves anyway =) does it offsets the problem for autumn and onwards? or is the problem more general? Is it about monetary policy globally?

2. do you personally believe that something will change in the monetary front prior to the bang? If they remove monetary stimuluses = economy is gonna go down (most likely- it seems markets dont even remember the world without QE and low interest rates)) X if not = the distortions in bonds and the bang. The only way is the political (fiscal) front but that seems to be blocked until some huge crises shakes it. Just look at europe and the german attitude to austerity, lack of investment etc.
  • #142,909
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:46am Sep 2, 2016 8:46am
Quoting chester123
1. FED may be the only one moving in the right direction (we have discussed the limits for FED - monetary divergence and its implications!) - but if FED moves anyway =) does it offsets the problem for autumn and onwards? or is the problem more general? Is it about monetary policy globally?
Its a global problem right now. US is the only one that can and should have hike long ago. The other rich countries are in a royal fck up as BOE, BOJ, ECB, etc cant do much in the current circumstances given the macro outlook for the next quarters...

Quoting chester123
personally believe that something will change in the monetary front prior to the bang?
I would have hope so but the FED already overstayed...

If they remove monetary stimuluses = economy is gonna go down

Well in Japan is just comatose even with all massive bazookas. ECB was trying to find a bottom with negative rates and a massive bazooka and Brexit pretty much killed any options for any changes in monetary policy until mid 2017, while the BOE launched the biggest bazooka since Lehman/2008 to offset the upcoming flows and it wont take the pedal off in the next years so until the winds are clearer from the EU (and if we print bad numbers [not so far] in the next few weeks BOE will launch anther round on November.....

In simple words, if US remove stimulus NOTHING will happen but finally the economy will be able to grow at good pace. However, the bastards will have to drop some money from financial markets (stop riding the pig on free money) in the short term to benefit the whole economy ... In Europe and the rest without policy thy are on the verge of major move down so there is no alternative but take the lesser problem (at least for now) which is screw monetary policy to save the day and deal with the consequences later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,910
  • Sep 2, 2016 8:54am Sep 2, 2016 8:54am
Good discussion between you both as I like to understand more on FA side.

sisse,

What would have been an undershoot number for you? We missed by 30K. It appears you see -30K as still inline. Did the steady unemployment data come along side this as well? Trying to understand how you took this info on the miss as inline.
  • #142,911
  • Sep 2, 2016 9:13am Sep 2, 2016 9:13am
market is ignoring everything as said by sisse "good news is good news and bad news is also good news until fed"

but one thing is for sure today we opened another flood gate in currency ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,912
  • Sep 2, 2016 11:29am Sep 2, 2016 11:29am
Another remarkably useful week on the really useless thread. Thanks as always sisse for your efforts and patience. Good weekend all! (Good holiday weekend for those in the US)
  • #142,913
  • Sep 2, 2016 1:07pm Sep 2, 2016 1:07pm
Quoting sisse
. Nothing interesting in the macro numbers front [check] . All numbers and sector are more than on track in the US. Employment is, in or by purely detail technicalities, in full employment so only a massive fck up will trigger some concerns about the economy.
Quote
Here expecting a +/- inline to keep the same slow expectations building [check] until FED September confirm if its now or in December.

Quote
US equities (S&P) as expected sitting at 217x[check]for the news which is the rain maker for the extension to fresh ATH... in all other cases the extension has priority if trigger[in play]

Quote
GOLD 1300.xx is the rain maker for the RMT play, any other outcome will just leave us in wide chop zone [super check] until further data.

Quote
Finally in FX. Dollar is the king today and is in FULL CONTROL of the board. DX 95.5x [check] is today's rain maker. ... To the other side 94.8x as steel reference support with Yellen bulls from last week getting wiped out.

--> A simple flow after NFP. All markets behaving as expected with the US going for a long weekend. The only highlight and of mega importance is BONDS short-circuiting and breaking correlation. That is a massive signal of where real money is sitting for the next few weeks....

--> Irrelevant closes in the making across the board for today with Euro bulls struggling for the first time to hold the hand since March...

Quoting IMARICH1
Good discussion between you both as I like to understand more on FA side. sisse, What would have been an undershoot number for you?
We missed by 30K. It appears you see -30K as still inline. Did the steady unemployment data come along side this as well? Trying to understand how you took this info on the miss as inline.
--> Well it was a miss not an undershoot. What was the range 168-> 180? ...sure we missed and is a softer report than expectations. Not a game changer by a mile or two (a undershoot something like < 100k) . It's still above the FED line on employment and more importantly put it in context of the trend in NFP.

--> A couple of things, don't forget we are or nearly into full employment. Job creation wont increase as fast as when we were at 11% unemployment. Its just the way it is. What the numbers are starting to point out is that we are starting to see signals that we have reach the limit in employment and soon the focus should move to growth and wages as inflation and loses monetary policy wont be effective for much longer to push the economy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,915
  • Sep 2, 2016 2:29pm Sep 2, 2016 2:29pm
This is the last warning.

Piss off. You haven't contribute one inch to this thread except trolling around.

You are bickering and talking only politics. Every time you post your low IQ crap comments from piss poor sources at the end of pages of quality posts and proper trading talk just to leave you turd at the end to benefit from the traffic of honest traders that want to talk markets.

Either you fck off somewhere else or we let the floor is all yours, lets see how do you keep this thread interesting and alive with your BS.

All paid trolls like you with a political agenda that only stir the pot in online forums are what kills online communities.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,916
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:10am Sep 3, 2016 1:10am
Quoting sisse
This is the last warning. Piss off. You haven't contribute one inch to this thread except trolling around. You are bickering and talking only politics. Every time you post your low IQ crap comments from piss poor sources at the end of pages of quality posts and proper trading talk just to leave you turd at the end to benefit from the traffic of honest traders that want to talk markets. Either you fck off somewhere else or we let the floor is all yours, lets see how do you keep this thread interesting and alive with your BS. All paid trolls like...
Better about politcs then your: if A up, if B down or up and down...
  • #142,917
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:01am Sep 3, 2016 11:01am
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Better about politcs then your: if A up, if B down or up and down...
I lol'd
Better wat? U surely dont understand a single word he said =)
  • #142,918
  • Sep 3, 2016 10:46pm Sep 3, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Better about politcs then your: if A up, if B down or up and down...
So Yes, what better? I am so sure You Never give thanks enough to someone or (Sisse) that giving so much wisdom already for this community. I told U high impact members status sometimes does not Lie. It is really high impact knowledges.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,919
  • Sep 4, 2016 1:18am Sep 4, 2016 1:18am
Quoting sisse
Well not really 'taking the FED' seriously but they are actually seeing the huge storm in the horizon if things in the monetary policy front doesn't dramatically change soon. Free money is handicapping and distorting the macro flows and the economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/profession...timulus-peril/

“In the near term nothing is going to happen,”

credit anticipates, equity confirms......if you live long enough....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,920
  • Sep 4, 2016 4:26pm Sep 4, 2016 4:26pm
Alright! Back in the driver's seat for another week of fun.
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