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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #5,601
  • Edited 12:42am Aug 31, 2016 12:11am | Edited 12:42am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Be a d8mn shame Squawk. That was good set up. {image}
Oh well at the end of the day it was left in on purpose regardless of the action taking place I was trying to gain a longer term position. Will see if it still holds second time around otherwise I will cut and stand aside until something takes place with IR.

But the most frustrating trade I have had for a long time but to position in on this is what I think is the right thing to do. I don't think there is any fundamental difference between the 2 countries except the OCR spread in what seems to be closing. The medium on this pair sits around 115. I believe we are at a shift here and when the September house ruling comes in for 40% deposit down and then I think we have seen peak NZ but may take a few months to play out with a painfully slow fundamental shift.

We have either had the 5 leg or not? I would like to think we have and are setting up 2 leg reverse at the moment. But maybe not.

Few IMF housing charts.

Interesting New Zealand at top of Price - income ratio recently.
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  • #5,602
  • Aug 31, 2016 12:47am Aug 31, 2016 12:47am
Quoting squawk
As much as the sprukers are starting to write up the Aussies and Kiwi dollar its hard to see a sustained move on commodities when you have global slowdown. Especially when the spread with USD is expected to close further. Industrials and AUD {image} {image}
Some follow through on Metal Index obviously hurting AUD at the moment.
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  • #5,603
  • Aug 31, 2016 12:54am Aug 31, 2016 12:54am
Quoting squawk
2 years had a nice move. May be some momentum to close the gap but has some to get through. {image}
2 year may tell the story after NFP. Closed the Gap where to from here. Short end lower?
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  • #5,604
  • Aug 31, 2016 1:10am Aug 31, 2016 1:10am
We wait

Every major has followed through from Yellen but the Kiwi.
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  • #5,605
  • Aug 31, 2016 2:00am Aug 31, 2016 2:00am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Be a d8mn shame Squawk. That was good set up. {image}
NU?
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  • #5,606
  • Aug 31, 2016 3:50am Aug 31, 2016 3:50am
Quoting squawk
{quote} NU? {image} {image}
I bow to your superior knowledge on NU as I don't follow it. I looked at it this way because of the fit of the 382.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,607
  • Aug 31, 2016 4:20am Aug 31, 2016 4:20am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} I bow to your superior knowledge on NU as I don't follow it. I looked at it this way because of the fit of the 382. {image}
Nice chart Ben,

Think its probably got more to do with the Fed and RBNZ actions over the next couple of months than a particular level. Both those patterns set an ABCD but I prefer around 74 - 75 level but I guess it will just be identifying the roll over and the fundamental trigger. if Fed goes in Sep and RBNZ decide to do their job and add another 25 then you would think that will give it a whole lot of momentum to the down.
  • #5,608
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:48am Aug 31, 2016 5:48am
Quoting squawk
{quote} NU? {image} {image}
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,609
  • Aug 31, 2016 6:22am Aug 31, 2016 6:22am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} GJ as posted UJ 127 ext, 50 move, 1618 pattern, big shark {image}
GJ
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,610
  • Aug 31, 2016 10:09am Aug 31, 2016 10:09am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} GJ {image}
Also 236

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,611
  • Aug 31, 2016 10:16am Aug 31, 2016 10:16am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Also 236 {image}
Woohoo! all on the pip.....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,612
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:27pm Aug 31, 2016 5:27pm
Quoting squawk
We wait Every major has followed through from Yellen but the Kiwi. {image}
Some bidding activity end of trade. See what happens through Asia and L Open
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  • #5,613
  • Aug 31, 2016 5:28pm Aug 31, 2016 5:28pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} {image}
Lots of confluence there Scott. NFP?
  • #5,614
  • Aug 31, 2016 6:42pm Aug 31, 2016 6:42pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Some bidding activity end of trade. See what happens through Asia and L Open {image} {image}
B@stards, don't mess with Squawk.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,615
  • Sep 1, 2016 6:42am Sep 1, 2016 6:42am
Some Gu, pretty sure variation of charts was posted before here.
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  • #5,616
  • Sep 1, 2016 7:16am Sep 1, 2016 7:16am
Same chart, different day....would be strange place to stop? Can draw slightly different but so far been working.

So, good NFP, is Sept? Aug historically the worst report in last six years, so makes sense, off the table and Dec again. What is terminal?
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  • #5,617
  • Sep 1, 2016 9:10am Sep 1, 2016 9:10am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Well.... Big sharkish in play? {image}
Shocking ISM miss.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,618
  • Sep 1, 2016 9:14am Sep 1, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Some Gu, pretty sure variation of charts was posted before here. {image}
Well that is some f'd up shiznit
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,619
  • Sep 1, 2016 4:02pm Sep 1, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} B@stards, don't mess with Squawk. {image}
Nice chart Scott. No follow through yet though.
  • #5,620
  • Sep 1, 2016 4:10pm Sep 1, 2016 4:10pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Well that is some f'd up shiznit {image}
And where to from here? mmmm
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