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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,721
  • Edited 3:23pm Aug 26, 2016 2:52pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ...and that was pretty much it for week. No surprises in the Euro with a simple flow. We failed to clear 1.116x by a handful of ticks leaving the leg wide open for next week. {quote} On the iteration 19 front. Shorts taken first target from the price entry. First note: --> This is how you pre position and take cheap tickets for a swing trade before a report without expectations !!!. Price entry Sell -> LMT SELL 1.130x [check]-> TP1 => 1.120x [check] ....... | STP => 1.138x Outlook neutral mid term ... Outlook neutral short term ......
Â
No.4 ... It was a nice ride ... What I believe is that price entry is the only way to get good returnS (TA wose) pharmor & gator's mofu ... Are the entry which are used for short term profit with a max of 100 - 150 pips sometimes less also...but both the ideas pay a handsome profit ...Â
Rest on the indicator part ... Total useless .. If a trader has lot of fund with him and wants to lose this is the best way ... Mobile typing is really boring ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,722
  • Aug 26, 2016 3:22pm Aug 26, 2016 3:22pm
High and low of this month set on the close today in the Euro and with that we cover all across the board for the summer. Nothing to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all until NFP opens the autumn season...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,723
  • Aug 26, 2016 4:32pm Aug 26, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} No.4 ... It was a nice ride ... What I believe is that price entry is the only way to get good returnS (TA wose) pharmor & gator's mofu ... Are the entry which are used for short term profit with a max of 100 - 150 pips sometimes less also...but both the ideas pay a handsome profit ... Rest on the indicator part ... Total useless .. If a trader has lot of fund with him and wants to lose this is the best way ... Mobile typing is really boring ...
The iteration used the fib map for entry in a way that doesn't jibe even a little bit with mofu. Short entry not even triggered yet where if one was actually trading pharmors map using that method to get in short he would have entered some time ago and be looking pretty green right now managing the trade using the levels.
  • #142,724
  • Edited 5:39pm Aug 26, 2016 4:55pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting sisse
.. I hope this iteration is starting to show some light of where are we going with it ... sisse
Definitely. Pretty clearly understand #3 now and I'm starting to get #2 and how it relates (leads into) #1. This has been the iteration that turned on the brightest light for me so far. As far as #4 goes, dealing with fifo over here in the "land of the free" I could have set my entry better. But I got some good ideas for how to handle it next time. Kudos sisse. Best one so far. Good wknd everyone.
  • #142,725
  • Aug 26, 2016 11:41pm Aug 26, 2016 11:41pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} The iteration used the fib map for entry in a way that doesn't jibe even a little bit with mofu. Short entry not even triggered yet where if one was actually trading pharmors map using that method to get in short he would have entered some time ago and be looking pretty green right now managing the trade using the levels.
I entered as PA entry ... I was just saying which strategies are actually working to get profit ... Even indicator trading also give profit .... But indicators are useless in my case ... With indicators trading you are never going to pinpoint The turns of major mid or short term swings ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,726
  • Aug 27, 2016 10:57am Aug 27, 2016 10:57am
Quoting Sa7an
So what happened to Armageddon? I'm Short EG LOL But in the long run, Brexit will be a good thing for the UK, which means it will be a bad thing from the point of view of Brussels. http://www.safehaven.com/article/423...s-pack-of-lies
Looks like Armageddon is delayed - that should confuse the hell out of all those economist doom and gloomers lol.
Do economists ever actually make a good call - hope they never try forex trading.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...r-the-referen/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/691...ic-news-Brexit

Still in EG and adding

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  • #142,728
  • Aug 29, 2016 1:54am Aug 29, 2016 1:54am
Wrong thread, Sa7an.
  • #142,729
  • Aug 29, 2016 3:44am Aug 29, 2016 3:44am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thank you Sisse, that was very helpful. I didn't realise there were so many variations of carry trades. A decent page I've found that highlights a few examples
Bank holiday in London today, expecting a rather light few sessions until US numbers kick start the autumn season with NFP. Meanwhile, continuation by default in the FX board in light sessions until later this week.

Following up this topic. A very good and highly recommend article from Bloomberg for those interested in an intelligent conversation. "Currency Traders Cant Lose as Trusted Strategies Reap Big Gains" (link here).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,730
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:10am Aug 29, 2016 9:10am
Quoting sisse
Following up this topic. A very good and highly recommend article from Bloomberg for those interested in an intelligent conversation. "Currency Traders Cant Lose as Trusted Strategies Reap Big Gains" (link here). sisse
Thanks for the link. Yes, it's all about the search for yield these days. And there's not a lot of it around! The report also highlights another important point about trading and investing: you have to adapt to the current conditions because what worked last year might not work this year. That's what makes it so hard... and interesting
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,731
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:19am Aug 29, 2016 9:19am
While the Brexit vote initially knocked consumer sentiment, confidence has bounced back this month, Bloomberg’s Fergal O’Brien reports. A consumer sentiment index by YouGov and the CEBR rose the most in more than three years in August, rebounding from a three-year low in July.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...anks-eu-access

Bloomberg are biased pro EU so I'm surprised even they seem to agree.
  • #142,732
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:47am Aug 29, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Sa7an
While the Brexit vote initially knocked consumer sentiment, confidence has bounced back this month, Bloombergs Fergal OBrien reports. A consumer sentiment index by YouGov and the CEBR rose the most in more than three years in August, rebounding from a three-year low in July. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...anks-eu-access Bloomberg are biased pro EU so I'm surprised...
just in case you have not realized yet.... no-one is discussing or even interested in your defence of your political case. You better find some other platform because you may have not realized but these are not political discussion in this thread.

P.S.: The ignorance with which you present yourself is very typical for the kind of persons having your political bias. Its also typical that these types of persons are very motivated to post more after our reactions. Ignor is the way to go next time
  • #142,733
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:48am Aug 29, 2016 9:48am
Quoting Sa7an
While the Brexit vote initially knocked consumer sentiment, confidence has bounced back this month, Bloombergs Fergal OBrien reports. A consumer sentiment index by YouGov and the CEBR rose the most in more than three years in August, rebounding from a three-year low in July. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...anks-eu-access Bloomberg are biased pro EU so I'm surprised...
Respectfully--enough campaigning friend. Safe to say everyone knows where you stand on it.
  • #142,734
  • Edited 10:09am Aug 29, 2016 9:59am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting sisse
Watchout for Euro 1.116x [check] before taking the real decision ...
...and that was pretty much it for week. No surprises in the Euro with a simple flow. We failed to clear 1.116x [check] by a handful of ticks leaving the leg wide open for next week.
Simple and soft news flow completed with the test 1.116x. Crunching time for bulls and we are ready for the real mover and shaker this week....

On the iteration front ...and that was pretty much it for bulls. Strike 3 and all out. A quick update and a few pointers.

Quoting sisse
A detailed update of iteration 19 to make things a bit clearer now that we have most of the triggers in play.... {quote} +++++-Iteration 19+++++ " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" Currently Euro trading @ 1.129x (update 2)

+++++-Iteration 19+++++

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

Currently Euro trading @ 1.115x

(update 3)


BUY

DexterMorgan, PAStalker ,yogi, Ghandi, hoom, mrcreosote, dhjeaavu69, NorthTrader


SELL

Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, RoelsMajor, goosebone, Pharm0r, eborn, suntan, CommercialB, clayey, chester123, RoelsMajor


-> Price Entry (trigger on rejection of his/low | stops on last high/low +dozen ticks)
Buy

-> LMT BUY 1.129x [check]-> TP1 => 1.139x ....... | STP => 1.123x [check]....Longs stopped out

-> Stoch Entry (trigger on crossover... | stops on last swing high/low +dozen ticks)

Buy
-> LMT BUY 1.127x [check]-> TP1 => 1.137x ....... | STP => 1.122x [check]....Longs stopped out

-> Fibs Entry (trigger on pullback 23.6% x longs and 50% for shorts... | stops on prev level...this is a bastardise version to make it tradable for this iteration from Pharm0rFib ...thx mate)

Buy
-> LMT BUY 1.122x [check]-> TP1 => 1.132x ....... | STP => 1.115x[check]....Longs stopped out


A few points to wrap up this update:

  1. When you are in wrong side of the direction, no matter what you use for entry andTA you are always going to be betting against the path of less resistance and therefore with the higher odds of losing money. Thats a fact !!!
  2. Managing risk is the name of the game. We all get it wrong sometimes in direction thats part of the cost of doing business. The aim to consistent trading is having a clear and hard defined exit strategy if you are wrong. Getting marry to a position is a recipe for disaster

    1. As you can clearly see in the 3 long entries you should have risked 60, 50, 70 ticks no MORE !!! in this particular case to position for a swing with in the best case scenario could yield +9:1....

  3. Outlook neutral => a thin week with an event with potential game changer circumstances but without expectations (Jackson was a scheduled speech outside of formal monetary meetings) you more than ever trade it to the inside !!!! ...that is the path of less resistance. If the game changer is triggered to the 'outside' of the range you will 90% of the time will be able to clear in a zigzag in the best case or for a scratch or minimum loss before markets swap to the other side ....

We'll make an update later on a step by step with a chart next to it to each stage in this iteration as I think will trigger lots of "damn it i get it now moments" ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,735
  • Aug 29, 2016 12:10pm Aug 29, 2016 12:10pm
hi guys,

what i believe is that no action to see before Nfp + Monthly closing .... we are in scalping(mode) time .... but will be very curious to see when it breaks out ....if before NFP ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,736
  • Aug 29, 2016 2:35pm Aug 29, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} +++++-Iteration 19+++++ " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" Currently Euro trading @ 1.115x (update 3)....
As usual after completing a flow leg especially today that we are set for a soft 'roll play' today before NFP. Only for those short:

+++++ Opening Iteration 19A +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.117x

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"


SELL

Fisher755, primejarvis, nuts, ptoftangency, Earlobe, Fadhl, RoelsMajor, goosebone, Pharm0r, eborn, suntan, CommercialB, clayey, chester123, RoelsMajor


Sell (Price Entry)
-> LMT SELL 1.130x [check]-> TP1 => 1.120x [check] -> TP2 =>1.110x....... | STP => 1.138x

Sell (Stoch Entry)
-> LMT SELL 1.128x [check]-> TP1 => 1.118x [check] -> TP2 =>1.108x....... | STP => 1.136x

Question 19A: We cleared the summer with a very vocal Yellen. How would you manage the remaining position?

a. "I am not sure until NFP. Better be safe than sorry" I will trail 1.13xx
b. "Nay. The party its just getting starter" I stay put for final targets
c. "Hikes hikes hikes up we go...Europe Europe Europe down we go" I am more bearish than ever finally we are set for parity 'adding' shorts 1.123x if hit -> to play double T2 & T3 shorts targets.
d. "Knee jerk reaction from Jackson completed. Cary trade will prevail till hikes are confirmed if ever !!!" I will play the 'reverso' @ 1.117x switching remaining positions to long targets.

If you don't answer its assume you stay put ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,737
  • Aug 29, 2016 2:49pm Aug 29, 2016 2:49pm
Its A & D for me.

1st choice A as want to see the NFP, before deciding next move.

Would like a small long with defined risk at this level as can't see a September hike but maybe too risky ahead of NFP.

Suntan
  • #142,738
  • Aug 29, 2016 3:18pm Aug 29, 2016 3:18pm
B please
  • #142,739
  • Aug 29, 2016 3:32pm Aug 29, 2016 3:32pm
trailing closely personally. holding until nfp, will decide then

inline or overshoot in nfp will be glorious for us holding shorts
  • #142,740
  • Edited 4:03pm Aug 29, 2016 3:36pm | Edited 4:03pm
August 17 2016@1:49pm TABLE CLOSED@1:51
Quoting IMARICH1
Sell. In neutral you sell from extreme to target. .128x was the top of range as I said in previous posts. I think with the outlook neutral in short term but mid neutral and long term outlook sell that this trade has limited risk and good reward. If minutes are Hawkish; then, a short should occur and we are in a good position in neutral to sell.
I know sisse didn't alow me in this iteration though I posted prior to TABLE being closed (1 min so its my fault); but, honestly, I wasn't able to participate due to moving, issues mentally with my decision to close my positions and trying to get focused. However, I did CALL for a SELL.

How would I manage the position. Well I am going to cause some pain here for me as I will ask questions I should know by now or others may have questions about this too.

1. "Soft Roll Play for today before NFP" Does this mean from what you described last week about ebb and flow that since we tested .1160 for the ebb would the flow be to .123X/.1240. If so, would .124X be a FLIP area still or does it change once it has been taken in either direction?

2. For those that knew I closed my over leveraged ADD-ONS to EU SHORT to save it from the possibility of losing the entire account if we had a run towards .143X/.17XX (extreme case), I did not lose my capital. I only lost 2/3 of my profit. I looked at Risk Management to close to preserve my capital and still have seed money to grow the account if I ever get this stuff right. Due to me not doing well with understanding LEGS especially Short or Mid Term despite I had MID and LONG Term Outlook direction right in EU positions at one time, I did not play the SHORT TERM LEG nor the change in the MID TERM LEG correctly. I was married to the trades as sisse stated about not doing that if you get it wrong!

At this point, if I am understanding correctly, I would trail my SHORT and wait on NFP. Adding to this position on this MOVER and SHAKER seems more risky. We are not guaranteed 2 hikes! We should get 1 but 2 will be an "EXPECTATION" AFTER NFP! This is what I would trade and not the fact. I would add to my short after NFP and may get a better or cheaper seat if Market is caught on the wrong side.

sisse has pointed out that its not RATES so much that would devalue EU's currency; rather, their own economy will. The more data showing this will be the driver to the EU/USD parity scenerio. Hikes only add to it. I know the MACRO Direction but I would rather be more aligned with SHORT and MID TERM LEG OUTLOOK to SHORT before trying to really SELL this. Right now, I would have cheaper seats already purchased for this move and can now protect it by trailing it. We expect NFP to be good but its possible it could be bad and catch us on the wrong side but our RISK Management would be spot on for this type of move if NFP numbers are bad. If good, we can add to our position based on market and ebb and flow.

Therefore, if I was playing, my answer would be:
a. "I am not sure until NFP. Better be safe than sorry" I will trail 1.13xx
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