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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,661
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:00am Aug 24, 2016 4:00am
Quoting scottymoll
{quote} Hey Sisse, can you explain the "roll" play in more detail. I've seen you reference daily/weekly/monthly rolls many times in the past, but still don't understand what you're talking about. I searched your old posts for a more detailed explanation, but couldn't find anything to help understand it better. Thanks!!
and also I will be thankful if Sisse or other friends explain more about the word "CAPITULATION"
  • #142,662
  • Edited 4:24am Aug 24, 2016 4:02am | Edited 4:24am
I am Out. Closed manually all triple play from the trigger today with the small gain. I guess for this time, I have no patient to wait gain 100, 200, or 300 pips due to AU and GU current Bulls condition changing in small time frame. Maybe next time. Good Luck all. I am not very good enough to trade on High Time Frame. It is about style.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,663
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:43am Aug 24, 2016 4:43am
Quoting Arshamv
{quote} and also I will be thankful if Sisse or other friends explain more about the word "CAPITULATION"
"CAPITULATION" describes the situation where after a long run up bears give up and close there shorts or after a long run-down bulls give up and close there longs.
It is mostly seen like a last spike in the previous direction and actually a thing I always watch closely for entries.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #142,664
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:03am Aug 24, 2016 5:03am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} "CAPITULATION" describes the situation where after a long run up bears give up and close there shorts or after a long run-down bulls give up and close there longs. It is mostly seen like a last spike in the previous direction and actually a thing I always watch closely for entries.
Thanks a lot, a his last night comment referes to give up the seller or buyers of Euro and Sterling?
  • #142,665
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:26am Aug 24, 2016 5:26am
Quoting RoelsMajor
I am Out. Closed manually all triple play from the trigger today with the small gain. I guess for this time, I have no patient to wait gain 100, 200, or 300 pips due to AU and GU current Bulls condition changing in small time frame. Maybe next time. Good Luck all. I am not very good enough to trade on High Time Frame. It is about style.
Put away your 15 min charts RoelsMajor . Look Daily weekly and Monthly and as lowest tf maybee 4H. Not scalping here.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,666
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:30am Aug 24, 2016 5:30am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Put away your 15 min charts RoelsMajor . Look Daily weekly and Monthly and as lowest tf maybee 4H. Not scalping here.
He will get used to it. It is very hard to be both, intraday and HTF trader.
Besides, he did not read what we are doing.
Shame on you, Roels.
PVSRA
  • #142,667
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:56am Aug 24, 2016 5:56am
Quoting RoelsMajor
I am Out. Closed manually all triple play from the trigger today with the small gain. I guess for this time, I have no patient to wait gain 100, 200, or 300 pips due to AU and GU current Bulls condition changing in small time frame. Maybe next time. Good Luck all. I am not very good enough to trade on High Time Frame. It is about style.
Stick around. These exercises are pretty priceless if you are looking to learn about swing trading and FA. Keep doing them and reading comments from the guys/girls here on the thread. You don't have to trade them live to learn. What do you have to lose? My 2 cents.
  • #142,668
  • Aug 24, 2016 6:07am Aug 24, 2016 6:07am
Thank you for the comments sisse, haven't had a chance to read deeply into it- moving offices this week with limited internet access and my evenings have been spent with (more) schooling. Going for MBA.

I did see you said neutral doesn't mean up or down....and that alone already made your point clear to me- will catch up asap....perhaps I can get IT down to my office today and catch up on some emails/reading

Not sure where we are, but I'm still holding what I had previously- here's my snap shot. Had to hold off on pulling the trigger at the tip top 1/2 mark as planned, because if this shoots up I don't want to be over leveraged....just raised my lot value last week to match my risk and profits...so I'm at a funky spot to be adding leverage- anyways, whatever. gotta run

Many times there is a bounce at that "final TP", but technically- for a mofu trader this set up doesn't get any better (although I'm watching this last few bars look like a flag)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily.png Size: 28 KB
  • #142,669
  • Edited 6:32am Aug 24, 2016 6:11am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Stick around. These exercises are pretty priceless if you are looking to learn about swing trading and FA. Keep doing them and reading comments from the guys/girls here on the thread. You don't have to trade them live to learn. What do you have to lose? My 2 cents.
RoelsMajor will stick around here and read and understand what we are learning. Qte sure about that. We are many here at the thread coming from/ also doing PVSRA trading ( RoelsMajor is also one ) We understand more when we learn more about also the fundamental aspects of trading from here and some of the reasons why market move as it does and wtf moments . And as you say the knowledge we get here is priceless.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,670
  • Edited 7:23am Aug 24, 2016 7:12am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting scottymoll
{quote} Hey Sisse, can you explain the "roll" play in more detail. I've seen you reference daily/weekly/monthly rolls many times in the past, but still don't understand what you're talking about. I searched your old posts for a more detailed explanation, but couldn't find anything to help understand it better. Thanks!!
Sure. Given there is no official close in FX. 'Roll' used as per reference in spot FX for the daily close at NY.

"Roll in play" it just my own coined term to highlight there is a Trade opp on the close (D.W/M/Q).

--> In practical terms a 'roll' play usually shows up at the end of pullbacks/begging of continuation moves and is made in the very calm waters (the opposite of a news trade) where most of unaware traders can't even smell it.

--> It doesn't necessarily mean that action is taking place at the exact closing range but rather the opposite: That in the next few sessions whatever was happening until then wont be happening in the same way. A simple [this is random and just for the sake of the concept] example to make it understandable will be, if Europe was buying the dips but NY was capping the rallies after extending the highs (a textbook of a basic natural ebb and flow), a roll play would mean that if the roll play end up been valid, the next few session Europe wont be buying anymore the dip and therefore the ebb and flow will change ...etc etc

--> Its by definition the cleaner entry you may get if you get it right because you are positioning in very clam waters and without anybody including softer retail on it. A good roll play will usually have very little (if any in relative terms) drawdown but it wont ever by itself make a major game changer in direction. Thats why it appears and is most useful in end of pullbacks/retraces or the beginning of new or fresh break out continuation legs with the trend and seldom and almost never in major trend change tops and bottoms...

I hope it helps as reference...
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} .... I'll probably look stupid asking this but wtf! So, if EUR is being exchanged for USD so players can invest in the US stock market, then why isn't EUR/USD falling because of this? And same for the carry trades: borrowing EUR in order to exchange it for a higher yielding currency, such as NZD, should cause EUR to weaken - not strengthen - shouldn't it? ...
Well is neither stupid nor a simple question.

-> Lets not go in to complex technicals details but in simple words things don't work in reality in such a linear way of borrowing here and automatically buying stocks there.

-> We bastardise the concept to make it useful for conversation but in practice the process is more complex and takes a bit of understanding of financial transactions, swaps, forwards and futures just to name some of the basic instrument in which the carry or funding process works out. Prolly an 'easier' to understand case why the low interest currency could and does go up when disparities are large, is buying spot the low interest one for example and target with a forward the other side so basically profiting on settlement until you unwound the actual investment you are positioning for but during the process the funding currency will appreciate, etc

-> The point is that the process is rather complex in practice and there a variety of strategies and targets you can aim for, especially when disparities get very wide with negative rates and QE on top. However, whatever are the short term implications of the process the end result will always be the same: depreciating the funding currency especially when equities turn against the tide...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,671
  • Aug 24, 2016 7:58am Aug 24, 2016 7:58am
Quoting sisse
The point is that the process is rather complex in practice and there a variety of strategies and targets you can aim for, especially when disparities get very wide with negative rates and QE on top.
Thank you Sisse, that was very helpful. I didn't realise there were so many variations of carry trades. A decent page I've found that highlights a few examples is here. Here's an extract for those who are interested:

An alternative strategy used by investors is to take a long forward position in the high-interest currency using deliverable forex swaps. This strategy involves the purchase of the low-interest currency on the spot market and the purchase of the target currency with a forward transaction. At settlement, the investor receives the target currency and delivers the low-interest funding currency, using the proceeds of the transaction to repurchase the funding currency on the spot market. This strategy is considered to offer the advantage that positions can be quickly unwound if needed.

Cheers,
NT
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,672
  • Aug 24, 2016 9:12am Aug 24, 2016 9:12am
what happen for Sterling? Gold and Euro are moving down but Cable is dancing!!!
  • #142,673
  • Aug 24, 2016 1:00pm Aug 24, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} He will get used to it. It is very hard to be both, intraday and HTF trader. Besides, he did not read what we are doing. Shame on you, Roels.
It is so hard Sister to read 7134 page behind, so I did read so many lesson by Sisse comments and pics post at least from the start of this year.

Back to Euro, from the entry point 1.1305, so far Euro has move 50 pips lower and starting a retrace back to 1.1275 after London Close.

The most important key I got all my life in this currencies thing:
- If the Central Banks (FED, BIS, BOJ, BOE) or whatever Banks in the World decided to print more money and lend it via small banks, too much money in circulation, so the currencies will become more more cheap than before. This is what happening now in the Era after Nixon Shock when the currencies become "floating rates".
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,674
  • Edited 1:26pm Aug 24, 2016 1:07pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} It is so hard Sister to read 7134 page behind, so I did read so many lesson by Sisse comments and pics post at least from the start of this year. Back to Euro, from the entry point 1.1305, so far Euro has move 50 pips lower and starting a retrace back to 1.1275 after London Close. The most important key I got all my life in this currencies thing: - If the Central Banks (FED, BIS, BOJ, BOE) or whatever Banks in the World decided to print more money and lend it via small banks, too much money in circulation, so the currencies will become more...
Yes, but this is not important short term for our map, neither for EU H&S in play, You are overcomplicating, imo. Is why we have a map and trade according to it. When in sync with PVSRA and additional pattern clue, even better. Nothing is 100%, this is why we put SL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH1 r.png Size: 61 KB

Never mind, there will be other setups.
EDIT:
So maybe a new "key" or two to learn would not hurt. None of us. We will not learn in one day and not in one week, but we have all the time in the world and should not stop learning.
Thanks to sisse that is willing to teach sheaps a trick or too, we might get better.
PVSRA
  • #142,675
  • Aug 24, 2016 1:44pm Aug 24, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} RoelsMajor will stick around here and read and understand what we are learning. Qte sure about that. We are many here at the thread coming from/ also doing PVSRA trading ( RoelsMajor is also one ) We understand more when we learn more about also the fundamental aspects of trading from here and some of the reasons why market move as it does and wtf moments . And as you say the knowledge we get here is priceless.
Well, thank U Earleone for so much "faith" in Me. I guess the "economics fundamental" is the very hard lesson to learn, because its all about "human psychological" aspects. In the last 5000 years, We are never near to get it cracked.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #142,676
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:11pm Aug 24, 2016 4:11pm
A decent day across the board but nothing out of the ordinary. We are finally closing summer trading days.

Not much to see until tomorrow european opening which will kick start the week and settle the path for the potential FED slip of mouth move.

On the iteration 19, potential stochastic long trigger in play for the Asian opening session for those trading overnight...will update on the european open tomorrow .

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,677
  • Aug 25, 2016 3:45am Aug 25, 2016 3:45am
Slight softer German expectations but nothing out of range so far with european session pretty much over for chop till NY.

On the iteration front as expected Asia triggered the stochastic long entry so GL all longs this time...

Quoting sisse
. +++++-Iteration 19+++++ " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

+++++-Iteration 19+++++

" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

Currently Euro trading @ 1.129x


BUY [check stochastic entry @ 1.127x]

DexterMorgan

PAStalker

yofi

Ghandi

hoom

mrcreosote

dhjeaavu69

NorthTrader


SELL [check price entry @ 1.130x]

Fisher755

primejarvis

nutts

ptoftangency

Earleone

Fadhl

RoelsMajor

goosebone

Pharm0r

eborn

suntan

CommercialB

clayjay

chester123

RoelsMajor

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,678
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:41am Aug 25, 2016 8:41am
Hi Everyone: I want to share with you a summary of Sisse Outlook Updates that I tracked back and you may use as a reference document and you can update going forward. I think it will be very useful at least for me. You can validate the assessment by tracking back via the mentioned dates. Please if there is any mistake, let everyone knows! Thanks Sisse for your support!
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx OUTLOOK_UPDATES.DOCX   24 KB | 497 downloads
  • #142,679
  • Edited 9:18am Aug 25, 2016 8:52am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting Fadhl
Hi Everyone: I want to share with you a summary of Sisse Outlook Updates that I tracked back and you may use as a reference document and you can update going forward. I think it will be very useful at least for me. You can validate the assessment by tracking back via the mentioned dates. Please if there is any mistake, let everyone knows! Thanks Sisse for your support! {file}
hi fadhl, thank for sharing. good job - ill use it for reference too

P.S.: Im working on something similar - im trying to figure out some excel system/document, which would contain all relevant macro data, monetary info, other relevant FA info, outlooks for one side and their combination for currencies all in some logical simple order. Will share when finished. Hopefully in a few weeks.
  • #142,680
  • Aug 25, 2016 9:06am Aug 25, 2016 9:06am
Quoting Fadhl
Hi Everyone: I
Thanks Fadhl..have been setting up something similar in excel like chester..trying to find time to update from the start of the year..
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