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  • #521
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:41am Aug 20, 2016 5:41am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} It is tradable both ways on M15, but there must be clear consolidation below or above important level and atm even M15 or M30 tell nothing- not enough clues. {image} Stayed completly flat the whole Friday, so my gues is Monday consolidation can give us more clues. It might happen in one session too, but this is less likely, probably MMs will want more liquidity so low on HTFs. The question is will they suck sellers and run up or will they suck buyers and continue one more leg down. This will all be visible until Tuesday, or maybe they might...
Absolutely best Analysis You there, In Tuesday BOJ Kuroda will speak bla bla bla, All Big Companies in Japan reject the Yen moving lower below 100, not good for business sustainability They said. Possible best scenario The Markets will move the prices lower for temporary to suck more sellers and stop hunting buyers, then Up to the north on fast lighning move. Possible worst scenario, The Markets will search the new low after 4 years to make the history for them self, and make the buyers on misery for a decade.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #522
  • Aug 20, 2016 4:26pm Aug 20, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting Mr.Dan
What happened to the guy who started all of this? I have been trading better than i expected. Just have to get rid of my red trades but don`t want to close them on red (I have time to wait).
Thanks for asking

I'm still at it. I have a plan to get back in the green, but not that worried about it since we have a whole year to assess results. I'm going back and forth on whether I should deposit all of the money I've designated to trade with, or only make periodic deposits as needed. So far, I've felt it better to not put it all in the account, so as to avoid the temptation to risk too much.

I'm also focused on some other things, that have limited my time and probably distracted me a bit. I've been working on a contract, as a software consultant for past several weeks, and have also started working on my futures trading again.

At any rate, it's good to see the transparency in this thread, and everyone working through the ups and downs. Look forward to see the first one to reach the 1 year goal...
  • #523
  • Edited 5:00pm Aug 20, 2016 4:37pm | Edited 5:00pm
btw...

I was bullish on UJ, but it no longer looks good to me for longs, when I stepped back and took a look at the overall big picture.

In chart attached, #1-3 shows bears protecting the downward channel trend line with 3 very clean touches.

#4 shows bears slamming through bottom of channel.

#5 is where I'd look for a buy opportunity. it's not only around the bottom of channel, but also a key level at 96.58, which you can clearly see on the weekly chart, also posted below...

Edit: not saying I'll look to buy at 96.58, but it is where I'll start "looking" for a buy. Price could easily fall to 94 or 93 area and still not hit bottom. I'll need to assess PA once price gets down there to determine how to approach it... also cleaned up charts to show analysis better...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image4.png Size: 19 KB
  • #524
  • Edited 5:45pm Aug 20, 2016 5:23pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting benaiah
btw... I was bullish on UJ, but it no longer looks good to me for longs, when I stepped back and took a look at the overall big picture. In chart attached, #1-3 shows bears protecting the downward channel trend line with 3 very clean touches. #4 shows bears slamming through bottom of channel. #5 is where I'd look for a buy opportunity. it's not only around the bottom of channel, but also a key level at 96.58, which you can clearly see on the weekly chart, also posted below... Edit: not saying I'll look to buy at 96.58, but it is where I'll start...
Depending how much You target in pips and how long You would stay in possible Bear move...
Depends on how long possible Bear move would ended. But if The Markets say, No We sell sell sell into the bottom from the Low H4 (Mid Area in Weekly)

Now see My charts Weekly - H4 - H1 and M15

Edit:
- Typo Previous Lower should be Previous Low
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15.png Size: 63 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #525
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:29pm Aug 20, 2016 5:29pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Depending how much You target in pips and how long You would stay in possible Bear move... Now see My charts Weekly - H4 - H1 and M15 Edit: - Typo Previous Lower should be Previous Low {image} {image} {image} {image}
yea, good point. It think opportunities in both directions. It's volatile enough. Funny thing, is my best trade on this pair over last few weeks was a short. But kept looking for the bullish reversal overall.

I think because of the volatility, not good to hold for too long. But once it hits rock bottom, I think will be a very nice buy for 1000+ pips.
  • #526
  • Edited 6:05pm Aug 20, 2016 5:44pm | Edited 6:05pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} yea, good point. It think opportunities in both directions. It's volatile enough. Funny thing, is my best trade on this pair over last few weeks was a short. But kept looking for the bullish reversal overall. I think because of the volatility, not good to hold for too long. But once it hits rock bottom, I think will be a very nice buy for 1000+ pips.
You are a good trader, but sometimes you hold the position too long. In HTF its okay go for 300 pips maybe, but the best thing I got in pips is only about 150 pips in one trade in HTF. The point is take your profit before its gone. Maybe Average Daily Range is a good preference for take profit. And the risk you have taken still too big, come on move on! Lets trade small risk. The year will be Long like Fisher said. No need to rush.

Edit:
- In case U need risk model calculator. Taken from this forum.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Risk model calculator.xls   33 KB | 358 downloads
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #527
  • Aug 20, 2016 6:26pm Aug 20, 2016 6:26pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} You are a good trader, but sometimes you hold the position too long. In HTF its okay go for 300 pips maybe, but the best thing I got in pips is only about 150 pips in one trade in HTF. The point is take your profit before its gone. Maybe Average Daily Range is a good preference for take profit. And the risk you have taken still too big, come on move on! Lets trade small risk. The year will be Long like Fisher said. No need to rush. Edit: - In case U need risk model calculator. Taken from this forum. {file}
okay, thanks for the input
  • #528
  • Aug 20, 2016 6:38pm Aug 20, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} You are a good trader, but sometimes you hold the position too long. In HTF its okay go for 300 pips maybe, but the best thing I got in pips is only about 150 pips in one trade in HTF. The point is take your profit before its gone. Maybe Average Daily Range is a good preference for take profit. And the risk you have taken still too big, come on move on! Lets trade small risk. The year will be Long like Fisher said. No need to rush. Edit: - In case U need risk model calculator. Taken from this forum. {file}
Will download and check if my risk is in right %. Thank you.
  • #529
  • Aug 21, 2016 6:14pm Aug 21, 2016 6:14pm
Morning Guys. UJ Freaky Playing at the Start! Opened about 60 pips higher!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15-August 22 2016.png Size: 61 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #530
  • Aug 21, 2016 9:23pm Aug 21, 2016 9:23pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Morning Guys. UJ Freaky Playing at the Start! Opened about 60 pips higher! {image}
Nice entry there UJ on retrace down, bro. I overslept,
At least I did not wake up in the DD again.
PVSRA
  • #531
  • Aug 21, 2016 9:33pm Aug 21, 2016 9:33pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Nice entry there UJ on retrace down, bro. I overslept, At least I did not wake up in the DD again.
Well, little bit sceptical about UJ. I made two trades based on HTF H4, UJ and GU, but will trying to keep the stoploss below 2% each trade with "crazy target". At least both trades following the Trends. I am a little busy this morning at the clinics. See U Sister at London Open. Keep tracking and Happy hunting Pips.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #532
  • Edited 10:21pm Aug 21, 2016 10:05pm | Edited 10:21pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, little bit sceptical about UJ. I made two trades based on HTF H4, UJ and GU, but will trying to keep the stoploss below 2% each trade with "crazy target". At least both trades following the Trends. I am a little busy this morning at the clinics. See U Sister at London Open. Keep tracking and Happy hunting Pips.
Yes, agree. Wanted to suggest that you bank 20 pips (less than you usually do, becouse it is not even Monday LS yet and could be a sucker and things change as soon as LO starts... ) Or at least put SL BE+ when you get to 20 pips green (If really bullish and fly up even another retrace down should be HL and so SL at BE not be hit)
PVSRA
  • #533
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:17pm Aug 21, 2016 10:17pm
Very cool goal here, I've found it helps me to always have stops and always honor those stops, stick to your strategy, and don't risk too much of your account.
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #534
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:33pm Aug 21, 2016 10:33pm
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  • #535
  • Aug 21, 2016 11:51pm Aug 21, 2016 11:51pm
Hello guys, have a great week, remember, as far that we can have more %, its good, risk a small percentage, like you have 1 million dollar. You just need to demonstrate yourself that you can be profitable, if you do, you can put big money on it.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #536
  • Aug 22, 2016 1:36am Aug 22, 2016 1:36am
Quoting Peruvian80
Hello guys, have a great week, remember, as far that we can have more %, its good, risk a small percentage, like you have 1 million dollar. You just need to demonstrate yourself that you can be profitable, if you do, you can put big money on it.
PVSRA
  • #537
  • Edited 3:27am Aug 22, 2016 3:13am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Well, little bit sceptical about UJ. I made two trades based on HTF H4, UJ and GU, but will trying to keep the stoploss below 2% each trade with "crazy target". At least both trades following the Trends. I am a little busy this morning at the clinics. See U Sister at London Open. Keep tracking and Happy hunting Pips.
Check this out:
NCad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiH4.png Size: 69 KB

Nice HTF uptrend, retrace down and upside continuation. After nice long consolidation below half, with special edition SH below whole included. Smells like loading longs to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiH1.png Size: 67 KB

Might retrace back down M15 for cheap entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiM30.png Size: 61 KB


Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Check this out: NCad {image} Nice HTF uptrend, retrace down and upside continuation. After nice long consolidation below half, with special edition SH below whole included. Smells like loading longs to me. {image} Might retrace back down M15 for cheap entry. {image}
NCad
turned out nice.
Left one EP running with SL at +BE (the smallest in size).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiM15.png Size: 71 KB
PVSRA
  • #538
  • Aug 22, 2016 9:12am Aug 22, 2016 9:12am
Hello, i just changed my user name, they accept me to do that and keep everything. Good for forexfactory.
Im a Crocodile, Im a Sniper. Patience is everything.
  • #539
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:22am Aug 22, 2016 10:22am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Check this out: NCad {image} Nice HTF uptrend, retrace down and upside continuation. After nice long consolidation below half, with special edition SH below whole included. Smells like loading longs to me. {image} Might retrace back down M15 for cheap entry. {image} {quote} NCad turned out nice. Left one EP running with SL at +BE (the smallest in size). {image}
NCad:
Closed last EP after that high activity above RDH.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiM15 Long closed 22.8..png Size: 74 KB
PVSRA
  • #540
  • Aug 22, 2016 12:24pm Aug 22, 2016 12:24pm
We might be close to good retrace down EU:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH1.png Size: 59 KB
PVSRA
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