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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #61,241
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:09am Aug 22, 2016 10:09am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} You look at it. 99.99999% of trading is done when money center banks trade (Monday Asia open till Friday U.S. close).
Whats your point?
Trade in the now
  • #61,242
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:15am Aug 22, 2016 10:15am
Quoting alldirex
{quote} Whats your point?
My point is that what happens when the overwhelming majority trades ... is what matters.

Every so often I see someone posts that on XE oh boy oh boy there is a gap over the weekend. And then ... the market opens to start the week right where it closes on Friday. No gap. XE for the most part is meaningless.

This is what my chart shows - the gap and initial attempt at filling it and now a long decline to attempt yet again to complete filling the gap. Take it for what its worth or not:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ gap.png Size: 52 KB
  • #61,243
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:18am Aug 22, 2016 10:18am
Never mind dint see your chart at first... I am just saying that gap or no gap does not matter. It's just price going up and down. Some times gap signals very strong push other times its just low volume market activity on the weekend.
Trade in the now
  • #61,244
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:27am Aug 22, 2016 10:27am
Quoting alldirex
{quote} What makes you think that ''if'' BOJ acts it will go up right away. Why not spike it down 500-1000 pips and then rally it 5000 pips.
a spike down of 1000 pips on BOJ intervention ? not very likely

a spike up of 400/500 pips on BOJ intervention ? much more likely
  • #61,245
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:35am Aug 22, 2016 10:35am
Do you think intervention will happen in one day? Maybe.. maybe not. Sometimes its a month long thing, sometimes just a day. Take a look at below link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/globa...-idUSL8N15Q4BY

And then look at charts to see what happened and when (down to 5 min if you like). Look at march 18th, 2011 for example.

I agree that when they will sell yen and usd/jpy will go up (duh...) but it does not mean that it will happen right away or that it will be a htf trend reversal.
Trade in the now
  • #61,246
  • Aug 22, 2016 10:51am Aug 22, 2016 10:51am
Quoting alldirex
Do you think intervention will happen in one day? Maybe.. maybe not. Sometimes its a month long thing, sometimes just a day. Take a look at below link: http://www.reuters.com/article/globa...-idUSL8N15Q4BY And then look at charts to see what happened and when (down to 5 min if you like). Look at march 18th, 2011 for example. I agree that when they will sell yen and usd/jpy will go up (duh...) but it does not mean that it will happen right away or that it will be a htf trend reversal.
good article - sure agree with you if you put it that way, nobody knows exactly how the market will react, it's just a matter of probabilities
others have rightly pointed out that maybe Kuroda will only talk the usdjpy up tomorrow and maybe we'll see no intervention at all

but the risk of a real intervention is there and if they do it's very likely that the usdjpy will spike up and afterwards resume its downtrend

but it all depends on how massive the new QE could become
  • #61,247
  • Aug 22, 2016 11:49am Aug 22, 2016 11:49am
Kuroda is one in a long line of BOJ governors who try to steer the Yen. Try all they want but in the end the markets have the final word.
  • #61,248
  • Aug 22, 2016 1:47pm Aug 22, 2016 1:47pm
The BoJ has never been able to steer the Yen unilaterally, the path is naturally higher for the yen without fed tightening so unless Yellen surprises the market with hawkish talk (fat hopes), the dollar is going to continue to lose ground vs the yen.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #61,249
  • Aug 22, 2016 2:37pm Aug 22, 2016 2:37pm
is it going up ... is it going down ,, back where it started on my broker feed,, I think it will go up from here because of the black space to the right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.png Size: 24 KB
  • #61,250
  • Aug 22, 2016 2:48pm Aug 22, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting Spec_And
The BoJ has never been able to steer the Yen unilaterally, the path is naturally higher for the yen without fed tightening so unless Yellen surprises the market with hawkish talk (fat hopes), the dollar is going to continue to lose ground vs the yen.
+ 1
  • #61,251
  • Aug 22, 2016 2:51pm Aug 22, 2016 2:51pm
HFT algos surely first clean sl before moving usd/jpy higher after Kuroda speech.
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #61,252
  • Aug 22, 2016 3:14pm Aug 22, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting TsunamiPL
HFT algos surely first clean sl before moving usd/jpy higher after Kuroda speech.
Lol fake sl ruins the algos.Everybody knows there is an artificial floor price. The big boys see it as too high risk - management would flush them down the toilet if they lost out with a high risk trade going against BoJ. Attempts below 100 have rebounded , not continued down.. Why ?
  • #61,253
  • Aug 22, 2016 3:35pm Aug 22, 2016 3:35pm
Who will have the last laugh
Attached Image
  • #61,254
  • Aug 22, 2016 3:46pm Aug 22, 2016 3:46pm
  • #61,255
  • Aug 22, 2016 4:04pm Aug 22, 2016 4:04pm
Yes exactly. Who will have the last laugh? I sure don't know.

But I do know central bankers can only hold back price movement for so long.
  • #61,256
  • Aug 22, 2016 4:24pm Aug 22, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} Lol fake sl ruins the algos.Everybody knows there is an artificial floor price. The big boys see it as too high risk - management would flush them down the toilet if they lost out with a high risk trade going against BoJ. Attempts below 100 have rebounded , not continued down.. Why ?
100 is not a floor. Last BOJ intervention was on 21.10.2011 at the price 75,60...
100 is not so bad for Japan.
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #61,257
  • Aug 22, 2016 5:32pm Aug 22, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting TsunamiPL
{quote} 100 is not a floor. Last BOJ intervention was on 21.10.2011 at the price 75,60... 100 is not so bad for Japan.
https://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-p...interventions/
thanks for correcting me sir. There is no floor price . 100 is a resistance level and psychological barrier.
  • #61,258
  • Aug 22, 2016 8:17pm Aug 22, 2016 8:17pm
Quoting Squiggles
is it going up ... is it going down ,, back where it started on my broker feed,, I think it will go up from here because of the black space to the right{image}
Yeah. I agree. And it will be a massive one. Next upside will be more than 125 in long term run.
  • #61,259
  • Aug 22, 2016 8:18pm Aug 22, 2016 8:18pm
100 is an enormous psychological big round number and support line. If price breaks below there and stays expect a larger move downwards.
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  • #61,260
  • Aug 22, 2016 8:19pm Aug 22, 2016 8:19pm
UJ got one more leg down. I am on scalp short while holding my long entry. Pretty good profit by now as entry was done at 100.80.
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