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AUD/USD

  • #98,601
  • Aug 16, 2016 5:24am Aug 16, 2016 5:24am
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} It's really hard to see AUD/USD heading down in the very short term (this week at least)... The 4H really says it all. EDIT: Image. {image}
never heard of such thing as very short term before. then you say an entire week.
get a low leverage account and short the crap out this, it's going down big time sooner or later.
  • #98,602
  • Aug 16, 2016 5:42am Aug 16, 2016 5:42am
Bit of profit taking after the US data disappoints?
  • #98,603
  • Aug 16, 2016 5:50am Aug 16, 2016 5:50am
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,604
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:34am Aug 16, 2016 6:34am
Quoting hamidabdiyan
{quote} I think The USD news make this pair down or no?
Finally bearish coming!

i think this week close lower than last week if its happen one or to week go deeper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,605
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:45am Aug 16, 2016 6:45am
Needs to hold onto 0.766 if bullish is to be maintained.
  • #98,606
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:57am Aug 16, 2016 7:57am
Few things of note to share today:

1) 7750 has held as the top 3 times. However, no chance to test it properly since all 3 times were hit following some news/data (the reversal was driven by the news/data) - so whether it's the top, we don't know for sure yet. Also noted the absence of ready selling as it marched up to 7740.

2) The 100hma no longer looks a credible s/r line. The more important one is the 200hma

3) 7673 has now proven itself to be a key s/r line - multiple sizable bounces were made from this line over the past few days

4) the fundamental picture still remains unclear. While RBA Stevens has spoken in (apparent) disapproval of "foreign capital" flooding in, he hasn't hinted whether the RBA or Govt has any intention to act against it. At the same time, we're hearing the fed's Dudley suggest the fed "can" raise rates in sept.

So while the carry trade still is viable, doubts related to fundamentals on both sides remain. I therefore believe the AUD will remain in a range, capped by the Low 77cents and (until it gets broken and holds) the 200hma. Perhaps the fomc minutes will offer a new lead at last. I doubt Thursday's employment data will have a changeable impact.

Gone Long at 7676, target 7690
  • #98,607
  • Aug 16, 2016 4:47pm Aug 16, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting ell3
Few things of note to share today: 1) 7750 has held as the top 3 times. However, no chance to test it properly since all 3 times were hit following some news/data (the reversal was driven by the news/data) - so whether it's the top, we don't know for sure yet. Also noted the absence of ready selling as it marched up to 7740. 2) The 100hma no longer looks a credible s/r line. The more important one is the 200hma 3) 7673 has now proven itself to be a key s/r line - multiple sizable bounces were made from this line over the past few days 4) the fundamental...
I think the USD will be bullish now until the next fed meeting if no hike then will tank again.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,608
  • Aug 16, 2016 9:10pm Aug 16, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think the USD will be bullish now until the next fed meeting if no hike then will tank again.
the USD buying and selling pattern is a little hard to comprehend isn't it! but whichever way it is, AUD has been quite well underpinned. it has followed the uptrend channel in the mid range so far.
  • #98,609
  • Aug 16, 2016 11:38pm Aug 16, 2016 11:38pm
lower trend line and 200hma still holding firmly. bulls still have control.
bought @ 7673, unfortunately before it went further down below but held onto it. now targeting 7683 for a 10pip profit in case it fails under the 100hma.

demand for the AUD is still very visible.
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  • #98,610
  • Aug 17, 2016 12:23am Aug 17, 2016 12:23am
Aussie sell off tonight 100 pip drop. target sub .76
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,611
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:09am Aug 17, 2016 2:09am
Been waiting for a while. Finally making that move south.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,612
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:19am Aug 17, 2016 2:19am
been checking around to understand what brought about the sudden 40pip plunge. but no answers. it's unusual for the AUD to move that way. gotta admit im caught long now. just pulled the trigger @7660 a split second before it started plunging and refused to close cos i didn't believe it would fall so fast so suddenly on nothing.
anyone knows anything?
  • #98,613
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:21am Aug 17, 2016 2:21am
Quoting Gdhall59
Been waiting for a while. Finally making that move south. {image}
Looked like my chart

tp will be around .76000 I've already cut and made some nice profits with a series of mini lots It could now pull up to .76700 but see further falls to sub .76
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,614
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:23am Aug 17, 2016 2:23am
Quoting ell3
been checking around to understand what brought about the sudden 40pip plunge. but no answers. it's unusual for the AUD to move that way. gotta admit im caught long now. just pulled the trigger @7660 a split second before it started plunging and refused to close cos i didn't believe it would fall so fast so suddenly on nothing. anyone knows anything?
Its normal for the aud to have massive drops like that most commodity currencies do. I explained this a while back that the aud has sudden drops of 100pips thats why it will remain a sell on the highs currency not a buy on the dips.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,615
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:30am Aug 17, 2016 2:30am
Trend goes down to the point 0.75903.
Test this level and go up to the level of 0.78568.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,616
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:30am Aug 17, 2016 2:30am
Quoting PaulDaemon
Aussie sell off tonight 100 pip drop. target sub .76
nice, maybe another 100 tonight?
Attached Image
  • #98,617
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:51am Aug 17, 2016 2:51am
This looks like the cause of the AU drop. Iron ore 4HR and 30 minute charts. Note current price sitting on 4HR uptrend line
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,618
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:53am Aug 17, 2016 2:53am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Its normal for the aud to have massive drops like that most commodity currencies do. I explained this a while back that the aud has sudden drops of 100pips thats why it will remain a sell on the highs currency not a buy on the dips.
well, that's partially true. the market tends to jump off risk quicker than to buy into it. but for a matter of fact, buying the dips has been the more profitable trade for quite awhile. the occasional losses from the downswings have been much less.
Anyway this sell off was one of the sharpest in awhile without an immediate catalyst. i'd have wanted to quit the long trade at 7650 but it fell so fast i didn't even have a moment to look at it. i'll probably look for 7647ish to exit, if it does get there. then probably need to stay out and reevaluate this pair after the FOMC minutes later since it has now broken out of the month-long uptrend.
  • #98,619
  • Aug 17, 2016 3:02am Aug 17, 2016 3:02am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} nice, maybe another 100 tonight? {image}
200ema on 4h is around .7575 so It would be the likely place for it to fall.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #98,620
  • Aug 17, 2016 3:05am Aug 17, 2016 3:05am
Quoting ell3
{quote} well, that's partially true. the market tends to jump off risk quicker than to buy into it. but for a matter of fact, buying the dips has been the more profitable trade for quite awhile. the occasional losses from the downswings have been much less. Anyway this sell off was one of the sharpest in awhile without an immediate catalyst. i'd have wanted to quit the long trade at 7650 but it fell so fast i didn't even have a moment to look at it. i'll probably look for 7647ish to exit, if it does get there. then probably need to stay out and...
I am out for now also, waiting for fed minutes and also to see how the next COT is, atm its net long of around 30,000.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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