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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,341
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:26am Aug 16, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I have pending sell order at upper whole, let's see if we get there. Maybe at or around FOMC minutes. Anyway it is maybe healthier to wait out what happens after FOMC tomorrow (if last pump up it is sweeter to sell then, if breakdown, we have more than enough time afterwards). If not, I Will sell on breakdown. ATM is too much bullish momentum still. {image}
Mly tech still point at 1.22x
my trade on the last iteration was S/O btw
Those who are chasing mofu are probably right this time. This could be like the china crash last year. EU went up burst through dozens level as a funding currency
  • #142,342
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:50am Aug 16, 2016 6:50am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Mly tech still point at 1.22x my trade on the last iteration was S/O btw Those who are chasing mofu are probably right this time. This could be like the china crash last year. EU went up burst through dozens level as a funding currency
It is known as "Bump And Run Fuckers"
I'm officiallly short now myself with few bullets left for final pump up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH1 BARF 16.8..png Size: 76 KB
PVSRA
  • #142,343
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:51am Aug 16, 2016 6:51am
who think's this is real I hope it is but I've been duped before

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3742872/Supersize-success-Teenage-trader-swapped-shifts-McDonald-s-unique-gold-Bentley-working-way-tea-boy-millionaire-businessman.html​


I believed this type of thing before now this guy's in jail for being a con men

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/news/626715/teen-makes-17-5m-on-stock-market-using-2k-lent-by-his-dad/
  • #142,344
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:25am Aug 16, 2016 7:25am
A much needed shake out in the Euro cleaning all soft hands in the process while in the UK inflation shooting fast as widely expected after the huge devaluation in Sterling (and it will get higher later in the year).

On the iterations all shorts stopped out (yes i know there are lot of question there ...we'll get there in a few) and only longs in iteration 17 left from all sets. US reports coming in a few and then we can start wrapping up.

Quoting sisse
++++TABLE CLOSED++++ ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ "THE FLIP" Iteration 17 ->

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++

"THE FLIP"

Iteration 17 (Update 1)

Elapsed time (4 days 8 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

goosebone

DexterMorgan

Ghandi

primejarvis

NorthTrader

Grinsakh


-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x [check] | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Fisher755

fxtrader18

Pharm0r

clayey

Earleone

CableFx1

Fadhl

manosk

Oshomac

mayafx

eborn

matkooo2575

Replicant

yofi

Vorex

TuTang

mrcreosote

glassblower

IMARICH1

ptoftangency

ExForX

Xemat

CommercialB

suntan


With Euro testing the 1.13xx handle how would you manage the position?:

+++Opening Question 17a (only for those for long)+++:


a. "I told you so...we are going to the moon" I will add on any dip to 1.124x to play the mid term ext to 1.18xx;
b. "Nothing to see or do here, same levels, same trades, same all" Sitting tight until targets.
c. "Not sure what is cooking in the background not really confident for tomorrow minutes" Clearing all before targets until further data.
d. " I call it bluff. A bull trap short term" I will play the reverso to short target with a stop sell lmt @1.124x

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,345
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:27am Aug 16, 2016 7:27am
On the iterations stopped out maybe, but not in practice...didn't the iteration hit a few tps?
  • #142,346
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:35am Aug 16, 2016 7:35am
This is moving on nothing but air. As Sisse mentioned earlier, this is an illiquid period plus a lot of stops were hit.
  • #142,347
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:39am Aug 16, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Pharm0r
On the iterations stopped out maybe, but not in practice...didn't the iteration hit a few tps?
No, not this last one..,

This one was particularly interesting. The table was heavily short when were in Neutral short term which I find particularly interesting to analyse in detail.

In any case, let the buyers in iteration 17a call and then we can chat about the flip and details ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,348
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:41am Aug 16, 2016 7:41am
Quoting sisse
A much needed shake out in the Euro cleaning all soft hands in the process while in the UK inflation shooting fast as widely expected after the huge devaluation in Sterling (and it will get higher later in the year). On the iterations all shorts stopped out (yes i know there are lot of question there ...we'll get there in a few) and only longs in iteration 17 left from all sets. US reports coming in a few and then we can start wrapping up. {quote} ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ "THE FLIP" Iteration 17 (Update 1) Elapsed time (4 days 8...
I will sitting tight until targets, b. "Nothing to see or do here, same levels, same trades, same all" Sitting tight until targets.
  • #142,349
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:42am Aug 16, 2016 7:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} No, not this last one.., This one was particularly interesting. The table was heavily short when were in Neutral short term which I find particularly interesting to analyse in detail. In any case, let the buyers in iteration 17a call and then we can chat about the flip and details ... sisse
oh- bummer.

You're all still winners in my book
  • #142,350
  • Edited 8:07am Aug 16, 2016 7:43am | Edited 8:07am
Gotta be honest. C for me. If I'm close on my short/midterm flips I should hold the long given the push above. But until I'm confident about how Ive plotted the flips it seems prudent to bail on the trade to manage risk. Not market risk but more "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing." risk.
  • #142,351
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:45am Aug 16, 2016 7:45am
Quoting sisse
A much needed shake out in the Euro cleaning all soft hands in the process while in the UK inflation shooting fast as widely expected after the huge devaluation in Sterling (and it will get higher later in the year). On the iterations all shorts stopped out (yes i know there are lot of question there ...we'll get there in a few) and only longs in iteration 17 left from all sets. US reports coming in a few and then we can start wrapping up. {quote} ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ "THE FLIP" Iteration 17 (Update 1) Elapsed time (4 days 8...
Yes i will manage my trades .... 1st T/p wont be hit so i will close the position ..

Quoting primejarvis
1. Limit buy with tp1 and then flip limit sell with tp3
Quoting primejarvis
Last time i had a bad feeling ... the same is right now ... 1.13xx is attracting me a lot but wont be a easy ride as it is showing ... if 1.126x is touched it will be a rain maker for early bears .... as brexit was out of the scene for eu zone ... i dont think any/none of the big players where thinking of brexit to be happening in real .... very small trades on going on both direction (live) with tight s/l and t/p... but the map is not good as it seams to be ...
my target is 1.135 which if considered by sisse rest will close the buy limit .... and start shorting .... from 1.135xx ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,352
  • Aug 16, 2016 7:57am Aug 16, 2016 7:57am
I'll stay in, so (b) for me please.
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,353
  • Aug 16, 2016 8:02am Aug 16, 2016 8:02am
i will go with (D)
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,354
  • Aug 16, 2016 10:09am Aug 16, 2016 10:09am
Quoting Likerty
Just bellow 1330 mark is where Gold bulls will show their hand...
Looks like Gold wants a HH in to 1380's first before trying for another bearish correction..
69
  • #142,355
  • Aug 16, 2016 10:29am Aug 16, 2016 10:29am
Quoting sisse
{quote} No, not this last one.., This one was particularly interesting. The table was heavily short when were in Neutral short term which I find particularly interesting to analyse in detail. In any case, let the buyers in iteration 17a call and then we can chat about the flip and details ... sisse
Yes, I even said in my call for SHORT that in Neutral you sell from the extremes to target and .128X would be a better place to SHORT. I, however, decided that there was more going for the DOLLAR and thought OUTLOOK Short term was SELL. Must have missed it somewhere and stayed with a SHORT. I really believe the GU would have weighted it down along with BOE. It seems to be holding afloat ALOT longer than I expected.

If I was in this LONG, I would close and I would now be SELLING in NEUTRAL Outlook and looking for the MINUTES to provide a RALLY to the Short side that I have been waiting for since March when everything seemed to change from a FA point.
  • #142,356
  • Aug 16, 2016 11:39am Aug 16, 2016 11:39am
Europe home in a nice a wide session in the Euro and to lesser extend in Sterling after the inflation reports. Equities enjoying the last day of summer and commodities on the backseat with OIL going flying high to test the highs of the 46.xx handle but sadly without me in the last leg.

Plenty of action in the TA side for this week and nothing new on the FA side until the Minutes. Bonds are beyond ridiculous, trying to pinpoint when exactly they will short-circuit is a pointless exercise but guarantee they will sooner rather than later and thats the train I want to be in ...until then...

--------------------------------------------------------------


==> There are plenty of questions regarding the Flip iteration and now that market has spoken we can dig in details. This can get a bit 'technical' and dull but lets start with the comments:

Quoting CommercialB
My guess for Flip would be 1.1180/1.1190 area
Quoting hoom
1.118x and 1.098x are the only lvls in play for reference right now on higher TFs [the current range without clear breakout on any side ie neutral], ...
--> Yes absolutely. My exact area was around 1.116x but I can see why you choose 1.118/9x instead. In general is the same area but you are choosing the Resistance in play instead of the rejection and failure. At the end it wouldn't have made any difference (and it wont in any case except for a dozen +/- ticks)

Quoting bullionman
......(flipped over) the 116x level 16 times going back to jan 2016 (the most crosses within that 6 month period). In the absence of any other definition of a 'flip' I used this as my flip locator. I'm probably wrong (and have misunderstood Sisse), but without a stricter definition of a 'flip' this is how I chose the 1160 level. {image}
--> Good very good the level but:

  1. I am not sure you are looking at the right picture to get there 1.116x is only a short term flip from the 5th/8th August so the 1000 times we have traded were irrelevant for the short term swing in play.
  2. A flip is not area or static level that is meant to be traded by the tick. Its meant (sometimes not but in general) to be whipsaw up and down. The whole point is that if you are trading in the right direction you want to squeeze those trapped hands in the flip that are betting to the other side ...as you can clearly see when we crash the highs ...

Quoting NorthTrader
As far as I'm concerned, the short-term flip seems to be around the 1.108x level at the moment. This coincides nicely with the weekly open too. The reasons I bought at 1.1180 rather than sold are
Quoting Xemat
For me, flip is 1.1103
Quoting ptoftangency
Flip for me is 1.11149/5 .
--> Not really a flip. 1.108x was/is a soft support in the context of this iteration.

Quoting IMARICH1
My Flip on Monthly was .128x and on Weekly .118x
--> Out of scope and out of range the Timeframes. We are trading a short term swing, why would you look at monthly or weekly for the flip. Not sure how you arrived at both levels but it sound not from the map we suppose to be trading.

==> A chart update is always a simple way to trigger answer and more questions so here is the chart update for reference:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: theflip.png Size: 146 KB


Key points and hints:

-> Avoid 'chart' fitting your expectations. What I mean you need to plot your own map before it plays out (thats the key point on the iterations and maps).
-> Neither outlooks (FA) or ranges (TA) change often but when they do YOU must review your charts to adjust them to the latest developments. This is a DYNAMIC game that change on expectations and volatility !!!!
-> In neutral you AVOID fading !!! the flip and or the middle in general. You trade to the inside not to the outside !!!
-> Cheap tickets is an expression to visualise risk and reward, the closer you get to the extremes the cheaper the tickets !!!! It doesn't mean just trade the ultimate test to the extreme. !!! ...or avoid fading the middle in neutral for example means in general: trade to the inside side and the closer you take longs at the top of the range the more expensive and more risky the trade (and vice-versa), etc etc

Now on the TA side

-> When a Resistance or Support stop being valid?
-> How can you recognise soft S/R areas and strong?

...we'll continue later but feel free to jump in with questions and comments ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,357
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:22pm Aug 16, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
Europe home in a nice a wide session in the Euro and to lesser extend in Sterling after the inflation reports. Equities enjoying the last day of summer and commodities on the backseat with OIL going flying high to test the highs of the 46.xx handle but sadly without me in the last leg. Plenty of action in the TA side for this week and nothing new on the FA side until the Minutes. Bonds are beyond ridiculous, trying to pinpoint when exactly they will short-circuit is a pointless exercise but guarantee they will sooner rather than later and thats...
Imo, I would open the Mly and weekly chart to find strong S/R level, where price reverse most.

For soft S/R I use daily and and H4/1

Those are techwise.

I also mark fundies S\R level where central bank intervene or Central bank policies that causes reversal those are usually strong one. Risk event is usually softer ones.
  • #142,358
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:39pm Aug 16, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting sisse
1.116x is only a short term flip from the 5th/8th August so the 1000 times we have traded were irrelevant for the short term swing in play... ...The whole point is that if you are trading in the right direction you want to squeeze those trapped hands in the flip that are betting to the other side ...as you can clearly see when we crash the highs
Ahh, that makes more sense. Looking at weekly price action 6 months ago to analyse a short term flip range over a 7 day period is far too macroscopic. I'll try following my same procedure but use a daily chart to identify short/mind term 'flip zones'.

Thanks Sisse.
  • #142,359
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:45pm Aug 16, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Ahh, that makes more sense. Looking at weekly price action 6 months ago to analyse a short term flip is indeed irrelevant. I'll try following my same procedure but use a daily chart to identify short/mind term 'flip zones'. Thanks Sisse.
So if it makes more sense, assume we are in outlook buy. Where (for you or anybody else) is the flip in this chart?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 18.46.59.png Size: 130 KB

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,360
  • Aug 16, 2016 12:52pm Aug 16, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} So if it makes more sense, assume we are in outlook buy. Where (for you or anybody else) is the flip in this chart? {image} sisse
In buy outlook -> trade from inside out..so the bottom support in the chart is the flip
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