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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #5,441
  • Edited 7:00pm Aug 13, 2016 4:28pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I am shocked, shocked....return to structure and 50 fib. Like the premise, but I would not write off Trump just yet although it seems the press is wont to do this week. It is particularly early in the American election cycle, most are caught up in summer vacation and the Bachelorette or whatever nonsense....Also I expect major polling bias due to negative connotation of voting Trump. https://youtu.be/nM_A4Skusro?t=2 {image}
Great Scene Scott.

Not writing of Trump just think that the peso is a good reflection of what the market might be thinking. If he does keep declining then I can see the Peso having a run of strength. Its fallen well short of most other EM currencies last few months.
  • #5,442
  • Aug 13, 2016 4:40pm Aug 13, 2016 4:40pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Great Scene Scott. Noting writing of Trump just think that the peso is a good reflection of what the market might be thinking. If he does keep declining then I can see the Peso having a run of strength. Its fallen well short of most other EM currencies last few months.
understood, just for fun......
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  • #5,443
  • Edited 7:01pm Aug 13, 2016 4:47pm | Edited 7:01pm
Iron Spec bubble.

Having been completing some research over the last week on Ore pricing and most leads to spec bubble.

A V run up on Coal and Ore market seems unlikely to be sustained and most indicate a spec bubble. Inventories are said to be up 30% with demand running well short of this figure. Expected demand to slow based on Chinese Auth doing similar to what NZD did to slow housing but not as extreme. Raise the down payment levels for housing and also enforcing that the down payment can not be from borrowed money.

Hard to figure a time for these sort of imbalances to play out but it will surely effect the AUD and NZD. Think its a good space to watch over the next couple of months.

Couple of good articles

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/it...be-next-2016-8

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-steam-already

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/wh...he-line-2016-5
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  • #5,444
  • Aug 13, 2016 4:53pm Aug 13, 2016 4:53pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} understood, just for fun...... {image}
Now thats a short I would like to be on.
  • #5,445
  • Edited 6:50pm Aug 13, 2016 6:36pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting squawk
Iron Spec bubble. Having been completing some research over the last week on Ore pricing and most leads to spec bubble. A V run up on Coal and Ore market seems unlikely to be sustained and most indicate a spec bubble. Inventories are said to be up 30% with demand running well short of this figure. Expected demand to slow based on Chinese Auth doing similar to what NZD did to slow housing but not as extreme. Raise the down payment levels for housing and also enforce that the down payment can not be from borrowed money. Hard to figure a time for these...
:nerd:

​
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,446
  • Aug 13, 2016 7:06pm Aug 13, 2016 7:06pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} :nerd: ​ https://youtu.be/gZEdDMQZaCU
:nerd::nerd:
  • #5,447
  • Aug 14, 2016 4:23pm Aug 14, 2016 4:23pm
Mmmm the start of SDR switch??

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pre...ocialShare_EXT

SDR bonds now issued in China by the World Bank. Second platform other than the IMF. Think we will see a lot more of this over the coming year or so.
  • #5,448
  • Aug 14, 2016 4:33pm Aug 14, 2016 4:33pm
Only in the present market does this seem normal.......
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  • #5,449
  • Aug 14, 2016 7:23pm Aug 14, 2016 7:23pm
Quoting squawk
Only in the present market does this seem normal....... {image}
well at least we should appreciate the times we live in....someday they are going to write books about it... :nerd:

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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,450
  • Aug 14, 2016 11:14pm Aug 14, 2016 11:14pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} well at least we should appreciate the times we live in....someday they are going to write books about it... :nerd: https://youtu.be/Y1SIexPh3ic
Your not wrong there Scott.
  • #5,451
  • Aug 14, 2016 11:14pm Aug 14, 2016 11:14pm
For G, zoomed version, good luck. Not sure if he even stops by here anymore....
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  • #5,452
  • Aug 15, 2016 2:57am Aug 15, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} 886 was valid, should be good for a go.... {image}
Quoting squawk
{quote} EG running the 5 leg. The last push that often destroys. {image}
Good Morning,
A restful wknd here with mummy away daddydaycare has been in full swing - ice cream, Olympics, lego, ice cream, Olympics, lego and so on...and no work. Anyway just having a scan. EG cut straight through that large sell zone which for me and eg is not unusual. I like the look of the new level. Second time lucky the norm.

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  • #5,453
  • Aug 15, 2016 3:07am Aug 15, 2016 3:07am
I gave up on the hourly crab on ol' Daxy. If my suffering has taught me anything it's look big, look 786.

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  • #5,454
  • Aug 15, 2016 5:17am Aug 15, 2016 5:17am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} {quote} Good Morning, A restful wknd here with mummy away daddydaycare has been in full swing - ice cream, Olympics, lego, ice cream, Olympics, lego and so on...and no work. Anyway just having a scan. EG cut straight through that large sell zone which for me and eg is not unusual. I like the look of the new level. Second time lucky the norm. {image} {image}
Hi Ben,

Sounds like good times. Like that level to and will be watching. Have a great day.
  • #5,455
  • Aug 16, 2016 3:27am Aug 16, 2016 3:27am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} {quote} Good Morning, A restful wknd here with mummy away daddydaycare has been in full swing - ice cream, Olympics, lego, ice cream, Olympics, lego and so on...and no work. Anyway just having a scan. EG cut straight through that large sell zone which for me and eg is not unusual. I like the look of the new level. Second time lucky the norm. {image} {image}
EG
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  • #5,456
  • Aug 16, 2016 3:49am Aug 16, 2016 3:49am
Quoting squawk
{quote} EG {image}
m1

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,457
  • Aug 16, 2016 3:51am Aug 16, 2016 3:51am
Quoting Mr. Scott
did she want the bat all along? Think it was mentioned here. Tough one to catch crab dt, ab cd nice confluence {image}
EU Lets see
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  • #5,458
  • Aug 16, 2016 3:52am Aug 16, 2016 3:52am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} m1 {image}
Morning Ben, was watching. Decent volume closed out on that inflation data. EU also in a good area to help.
  • #5,459
  • Aug 16, 2016 4:02am Aug 16, 2016 4:02am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} m1 {image}
Nice 4 hr close, see if it has some follow through.
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  • #5,460
  • Aug 16, 2016 4:09am Aug 16, 2016 4:09am
Quoting squawk
{quote} EU Lets see {image} {image}
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
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