Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread | Page 272 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Crayon Trend Lines 14 replies

Scott's Journal 25 replies

Attachments: Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread
Exit Attachments

Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #5,421
  • Aug 11, 2016 3:32am Aug 11, 2016 3:32am
Quoting marcb
{quote} Hi, what is your target for SPX and DAX?
Possible Dax targets here

Quoting Lalu
The Fraulein took a heavy mallet to her suitors again yesterday. There must some fearless little men hiding in her pockets, saying their prayers and good luck to them. Maybe they can get all the way to the big 786. For some reason the 1.618 was left untouched at the end of yesterday's epic romp. Do you go all the way to the castle gates just to sleep beside them and go back home the next day without smashing, or at least knocking? I don't think so. {image} {image}
spx here

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ​Also interested in fib expansion of that large move.... {image}
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,422
  • Aug 11, 2016 3:37am Aug 11, 2016 3:37am
Always a good indication of a spike filling. Volume before and after the spike in orange. Low volume on the spike taking stops in an i liquid market. Taking some profits from the spike when it fills the top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-11_1840.png Size: 73 KB
  • #5,423
  • Aug 11, 2016 5:33am Aug 11, 2016 5:33am
Quoting squawk
{quote} CB,s def losing. You would have done better this year trading against policy. RBA and RBNZ cut and currency picks up. I still have strong positions in NC and AN and still believe the AN spread narrowing to zero over the coming months will see us to 112 or above which will help it against the others. Still believe this has to be priced into the cross rate. Both NZD and AUD look like they are finishing ABCD on the long chart,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post9070632

At bat, ab cd and/or 1618 gets dt or so.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,424
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:35am Aug 12, 2016 12:35am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post9070632 At bat, ab cd and/or 1618 gets dt or so.
  • #5,425
  • Edited 3:25pm Aug 12, 2016 12:38am | Edited 3:25pm
Couple of other EMs I am watching that have yet to find any traction against US dollar.

Ind Rupee and Turk Lira

Short Lira from top of range. Some good news yesterday with new partnership with Russia. You cant get much worse than a coup and not establish a new leg higher. Rupee 69 important level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IND12.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IND12_2.png Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: TURK12.png Size: 72 KB
  • #5,426
  • Edited 1:02am Aug 12, 2016 12:52am | Edited 1:02am
NC - Looks like we have hopefully seen the top again with a flush out spike. Close below base of spike technically.

Fundamentally the markets have to price another 50 basis point and possible a 25 point on the USD pior to year end. You would think that would give it enough technical and fundamental reasoning for a nice move lower.

Nothing would surprise me with the Kiwi though but will be adding to shorts on the rallies.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-12_1602.png Size: 22 KB
  • #5,427
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:54am Aug 12, 2016 4:54am
Quoting squawk
NC - Looks like we have hopefully seen the top again with a flush out spike. Close below base of spike technically. Fundamentally the markets have to price another 50 basis point and possible a 25 point on the USD pior to year end. You would think that would give it enough technical and fundamental reasoning for a nice move lower. Nothing would surprise me with the Kiwi though but will be adding to shorts on the rallies. {image} {image}
Hey Squawk,

Looks like nice setup exotics there, nicely done NC. Pretty sure posted before when we spoke NC. This is very nice and common. We have ab cd confluence with shark, spike makes valid flush on news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADDaily812.jpg Size: 272 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,428
  • Edited 4:06pm Aug 12, 2016 3:44pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey Squawk, Looks like nice setup exotics there, nicely done NC. Pretty sure posted before when we spoke NC. This is very nice and common. We have ab cd confluence with shark, spike makes valid flush on news. {image}
Thanks Scott. Nice confirmation some strength seemed to also come into the CAD with OPEC comments. Hopefully it can get some continuing momentum but then its the Kiwi and prob needs a retrace confirmation, who knows.

MXN took nice mover lower. Think will call this pair the trump gauge. The less likely it looks like Trump will get in the more would expect move for follow-through to the down.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-me...-idUSKCN10M214
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.png Size: 40 KB
  • #5,429
  • Aug 12, 2016 3:51pm Aug 12, 2016 3:51pm
Quoting squawk
Always a good indication of a spike filling. Volume before and after the spike in orange. Low volume on the spike taking stops in an i liquid market. Taking some profits from the spike when it fills the top. {image}
For me this area needs to hold for next week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-13_0649.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-11_1837.png Size: 76 KB
  • #5,430
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:01pm Aug 12, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting Lalu
Morning squawk, gl with your trades today. eg has entered the zone too. {image}
EG running the 5 leg. The last push that often destroys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.png Size: 59 KB
  • #5,431
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:12pm Aug 12, 2016 4:12pm
Weekend ponders

"Knowledge of the truth before the next man..lay..behind every correct decision in history" Ian Fleming

Dont short the truth, short the lie.....
  • #5,432
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:43pm Aug 12, 2016 4:43pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} For me this area needs to hold for next week. {image} {image}
Can she hold hl, or gartley?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDDaily812.jpg Size: 310 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,433
  • Aug 12, 2016 4:48pm Aug 12, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} EG running the 5 leg. The last push that often destroys. {image}
886 was valid, should be good for a go....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly812.jpg Size: 317 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,434
  • Aug 12, 2016 5:16pm Aug 12, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ​think you may have already posted, little confluence.... https://youtu.be/IStlBOX9F4o {image}
Finally made it....more sound and fury but perhaps more than nothing...There is really large shark from before but I don't have that data with me from long ago.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4812.jpg Size: 326 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily812.jpg Size: 305 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,435
  • Aug 13, 2016 12:34am Aug 13, 2016 12:34am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Can she hold hl, or gartley? {image}
Mmm I think if it keeps running down to the Gartley, through the congestion area between 400 and 500 from last month then she will probably run to parity. I dont think it needs to go there but whether it does or not is another matter. I would prefer not to start covering this position since I have been in since the 10th last month.

  • #5,436
  • Aug 13, 2016 12:35am Aug 13, 2016 12:35am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} 886 was valid, should be good for a go.... {image}
  • #5,437
  • Aug 13, 2016 12:36am Aug 13, 2016 12:36am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Finally made it....more sound and fury but perhaps more than nothing...There is really large shark from before but I don't have that data with me from long ago. {image} {image}
Nice trade Scott
  • #5,438
  • Aug 13, 2016 8:06am Aug 13, 2016 8:06am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Mmm I think if it keeps running down to the Gartley, through the congestion area between 400 and 500 from last month then she will probably run to parity. I dont think it needs to go there but whether it does or not is another matter. I would prefer not to start covering this position since I have been in since the 10th last month.
Yes gl, think monthly says wants hh. 786 is usually best/last chance. Weekly looks better.....Was good trade and entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDWeekly813.jpg Size: 298 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,439
  • Aug 13, 2016 8:21am Aug 13, 2016 8:21am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Thanks Scott. Nice confirmation some strength seemed to also come into the CAD with OPEC comments. Hopefully it can get some continuing momentum but then its the Kiwi and prob needs a retrace confirmation, who knows. MXN took nice mover lower. Think will call this pair the trump gauge. The less likely it looks like Trump will get in the more would expect move for follow-through to the down. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-me...-idUSKCN10M214 {image} {image}
I am shocked, shocked....return to structure and 50 fib. Like the premise, but I would not write off Trump just yet although it seems the press is wont to do this week.

It is particularly early in the American election cycle, most are caught up in summer vacation and the Bachelorette or whatever nonsense....Also I expect major polling bias due to negative connotation of voting Trump.

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.jpg Size: 36 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,440
  • Aug 13, 2016 4:26pm Aug 13, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Yes gl, think monthly says wants hh. 786 is usually best/last chance. Weekly looks better.....Was good trade and entry. {image}
Shorter its hard to know Scott. I agree the last monthly stands out but to be quite honest I don't really pay much notice to theses when trading the Kiwi. Have to see how this month plays out. Its has to break and hold 750 to be convincing turn. Over the next 3 months I am looking for another 2 cuts and think the only reflection of this over that time against the AUD is weakening.

My thinking is regardless of the attractive OCR that stands out like bulls head at the moment the markets are going to have to start pricing in the closing of that towards December significantly. If the markets price in Fed December regardless of if it happens or not then the assumption would be a closing basis of 75 on the USD and closing to zero on the AUD.

When the longer end narrows then the chart tells the story the last time the spread between Australia and New Zealand 10 year was close to zero we were between 1.30 and 1.25.

I think the RBA is much less likely to add any more rate cuts from now on.

RBNZ stated that the biggest issue is the currency valuation. The economy is not the problem at the moment as it stands, But I believe only because of the housing market and once that slows the economy will turn over as well. As they stated in their comments they need a lower currency, especially if they going to meet their projections on inflation trade-ables, thats not going to happen unless the import prices get sorted through currency. So they are going to have to deal with that or otherwise keep importing the deflation. Inflation reading has only been good for NZ through non-tradeables housing sector and with that now forecast to drop of considerably that is going to be a big problem. NZ is small fickle market and changes can reflect quickly.

Anyway thoughts from a rambler.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-14_0644.png Size: 74 KB
Attached Images
3 traders viewing now