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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #5,381
  • Aug 8, 2016 12:03am Aug 8, 2016 12:03am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Bid up against rate cut at the level (GOOD SIGN) see if we can hold through dairy auction. View - Can be a great signal of change. Need to see NZD (in red) pushing further and below {image} {image} {image}
AUD Strength against NZD has become pretty apparent now.
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  • #5,382
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:08am Aug 8, 2016 6:08am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Thinking over the weekend, what sinks the ship. If we have ZIRP pumping up the speculators for short term gains on Yield with carry, mostly! then what changes that? will it be a black swan? Mmmm. Any thoughts on this Scott? do we just reach a ceiling where no one has capacity to borrow any more? Something has to dry up the free money or willingness to lend, or spend. When it does finally turn, surely you would think it's going to be a hell of a turn. {image}
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,383
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:16am Aug 8, 2016 6:16am
Quoting squawk
NU Daily and hourly {image} {image}

​yes saw that might go for 3.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,384
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:21am Aug 8, 2016 6:21am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
Was just reading this Scott.
  • #5,385
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:23am Aug 8, 2016 6:23am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Was just reading this Scott.
figured you might but some pretty cool charts
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,386
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:25am Aug 8, 2016 6:25am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ​yes saw that might go for 3. {image} {image}
I've been trading the AN looking for 112. But if the spread narrows to zero between then then I'm thinking we could see break of the range and 115 - 120. I'm liking the GN. Kiwi can get moved around quite easy if moneys wants to get out positions prior to Thursday.
  • #5,387
  • Aug 8, 2016 6:36am Aug 8, 2016 6:36am
Quoting squawk
{quote} I've been trading the AN looking for 112. But if the spread narrows to zero between then then I'm thinking we could see break of the range and 115 - 120. I'm liking the GN. Kiwi can get moved around quite easy if moneys wants to get out positions prior to Thursday.
Last swing broken, expectation test....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,388
  • Aug 8, 2016 11:06am Aug 8, 2016 11:06am
Quoting squawk
Looking again at EM markets Normally I would use the Peso as the proxy for EM market but has been reacting unusual lately possibly due to the unkown Trump factor. So looking again at the EM market I am using the ZAR. The chart below is the ZAR and SPX (blue). To me its clear that the last run in SPX has been totally fulled by risky carry trade which I think is pretty evident from currency standpoint in EM currencies but also the NZD and the AUD. For the hell of it I will post utilites chart again. You can see the quick spike from the 1 deviation...
ZAR

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post9072858
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,389
  • Aug 8, 2016 11:40am Aug 8, 2016 11:40am
This might throw a spanner in the works
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  • #5,390
  • Aug 8, 2016 1:17pm Aug 8, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ZAR http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post9072858 {image}
Attached Image
  • #5,391
  • Aug 8, 2016 4:03pm Aug 8, 2016 4:03pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Last swing broken, expectation test.... {image}
Like it Scott. Could take sometime to move to but if it breaks the swing on more IR cuts then could get a run over the coming months.
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  • #5,392
  • Aug 8, 2016 4:06pm Aug 8, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
UJ and 10 year.

Yen very correlated to the 10 year at the moment so if we get a pump up in yields then we should get a move in UJ.
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  • #5,393
  • Aug 8, 2016 4:09pm Aug 8, 2016 4:09pm
Oil prices have become a one-way gamble for hedge funds as they increase bets on declining crude to a record, building a short position in West Texas Intermediate to 218,623 futures and options combined during the week ended Aug. 2. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold an informal meeting in Algiers next month, the group's president said this morning, after the commodity fell into a bear market last week. Oil is gaining today, however, with a barrel of WTI for September delivery trading at $42.37 as of 5:57 a.m. ET.

All betting on the seasonal slow down with refineries in September I bet.
  • #5,394
  • Aug 8, 2016 4:11pm Aug 8, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ​yes saw that might go for 3. {image} {image}
What I see as well.
  • #5,395
  • Aug 9, 2016 11:01am Aug 9, 2016 11:01am
GA
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,396
  • Aug 9, 2016 11:05am Aug 9, 2016 11:05am
little NU on deck....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,397
  • Aug 9, 2016 3:12pm Aug 9, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ZAR http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post9072858 {image}
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  • #5,398
  • Aug 10, 2016 1:47am Aug 10, 2016 1:47am
The Fraulein took a heavy mallet to her suitors again yesterday. There must some fearless little men hiding in her pockets, saying their prayers and good luck to them. Maybe they can get all the way to the big 786. For some reason the 1.618 was left untouched at the end of yesterday's epic romp. Do you go all the way to the castle gates just to sleep beside them and go back home the next day without smashing, or at least knocking? I don't think so.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,399
  • Aug 10, 2016 1:51am Aug 10, 2016 1:51am
Quoting Mr. Scott
little NU on deck.... {image}
GN. Cypher is completed and IR announcement in the morning (well my morning) whats does she in between?
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  • #5,400
  • Aug 10, 2016 2:08am Aug 10, 2016 2:08am
Quoting Lalu
The Fraulein took a heavy mallet to her suitors again yesterday. There must some fearless little men hiding in her pockets, saying their prayers and good luck to them. Maybe they can get all the way to the big 786. For some reason the 1.618 was left untouched at the end of yesterday's epic romp. Do you go all the way to the castle gates just to sleep beside them and go back home the next day without smashing, or at least knocking? I don't think so. {image} {image}
SPX/DAX
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