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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #5,361
  • Aug 6, 2016 9:00pm Aug 6, 2016 9:00pm
Some more thoughts on the Yen. 10 year and USD/EUR/GOLD ratio rising, Yen remains low.

Yen has been very correlated to the 10 year.
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  • #5,362
  • Aug 6, 2016 9:26pm Aug 6, 2016 9:26pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} ​So usually I just talk to myself here and it is cool unless Mark or Ben stop by.... But blow em away NFP and ? So, September? Data dependent you know...Maybe but already tight into weak economy as evidenced above so how many more? Deflation seems more of a threat imo. But we have too many riding the pig and free money...oh what a tangled web we weave.... Ha, new theme for weekend I guess. No it is not MacBeth that one, it is Sir Walter Scott but mistakenly attributed to MacBeth. hey like to have a motif... O, what a tangled web we...
Nice theme for the markets today Scott... for sure. Deception and free money. You know its insane when money is piling into over price assets for 3% or even less yield. Defensive utilities at 3 deviation with 3% return! isn't that insanity? It will all leave an awful mess for the ones un-hedged.

'Augustus Gloop! Augustus Gloop!
The great big greedy nincompoop!
How long could we allow this beast
To gorge and guzzle, feed and feast
On everything he wanted to?
Great Scott! It simply wouldn't do!
However long this pig might live,
We're positive he'd never give
Even the smallest bit of fun
Or happiness to anyone.
Dont use words or time car
  • #5,363
  • Aug 6, 2016 10:25pm Aug 6, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Nice chart. Interesting to hear more of your thoughts.


http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/conten.../1329.abstract
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,364
  • Aug 6, 2016 10:26pm Aug 6, 2016 10:26pm
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Looking for some harmony on my charts a point of unison . Chill have a god day people.
  • #5,365
  • Aug 6, 2016 10:36pm Aug 6, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting rythmrig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfPzUZ_25yw Looking for some harmony on my charts a point of unison . Chill have a god day people.
​
they clearly don't come here for the charts

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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,366
  • Aug 6, 2016 10:53pm Aug 6, 2016 10:53pm
I was on track then i become lost. A change of course perhaps whilst a distraction from the multiple frequencies.
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  • #5,367
  • Aug 7, 2016 6:23am Aug 7, 2016 6:23am
Quoting squawk
{quote} You've been busy Scott. {image}
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,368
  • Aug 7, 2016 10:39am Aug 7, 2016 10:39am
Quoting squawk
{quote} You've been busy Scott. {image}
Busy 24 hours at Crayon Corner. Well I reopened my Ucad charts which disappeared mysteriously a few months ago. These are the levels that stand out to me.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,369
  • Aug 7, 2016 11:24am Aug 7, 2016 11:24am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Busy 24 hours at Crayon Corner. Well I reopened my Ucad charts which disappeared mysteriously a few months ago. These are the levels that stand out to me. {image}
Just for fun as that upper level seemed familiar....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,370
  • Aug 7, 2016 11:55am Aug 7, 2016 11:55am
USDCAD Daily

Convergence point of 200 day sma and ?top of a rising wedge. Still need some convincing of full reversal. Oil might help.
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Cheers
  • #5,371
  • Aug 7, 2016 12:23pm Aug 7, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Just for fun as that upper level seemed familiar.... {image}
More fun

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #5,372
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:13pm Aug 7, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Busy 24 hours at Crayon Corner. Well I reopened my Ucad charts which disappeared mysteriously a few months ago. These are the levels that stand out to me. {image}
Yes, same.
  • #5,373
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:15pm Aug 7, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Just for fun as that upper level seemed familiar.... {image}
Wouldn't surprise me. How does the dollar react this time to a market crash as apposed to last time?? safe haven?
  • #5,374
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:22pm Aug 7, 2016 2:22pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/conten.../1329.abstract
So this is where you spend your weekends?? thanks Scott will take a look and have a read..
  • #5,375
  • Aug 7, 2016 2:25pm Aug 7, 2016 2:25pm
AC could be some range trading for a while.
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  • #5,376
  • Edited 3:44pm Aug 7, 2016 3:11pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Have my own ideas about causes and solutions but I think it explains a lot. This did appear in NY Times article in July. {image}
Thinking over the weekend, what sinks the ship. If we have ZIRP pumping up the speculators for short term gains on Yield with carry, mostly! then what changes that? will it be a black swan? Mmmm. Any thoughts on this Scott? do we just reach a ceiling where no one has capacity to borrow any more? Something has to dry up the free money or willingness to lend, or spend. When it does finally turn, surely you would think it's going to be a hell of a turn.
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  • #5,377
  • Edited 10:35pm Aug 7, 2016 4:09pm | Edited 10:35pm
Looking again at EM markets

Normally I would use the Peso as the proxy for EM market but has been reacting unusual lately possibly due to the unkown Trump factor. So looking again at the EM market I am using the ZAR. The chart below is the ZAR and SPX (blue). To me its clear that the last run in SPX has been totally fulled by risky carry trade which I think is pretty evident from currency standpoint in EM currencies but also the NZD and the AUD.

For the hell of it I will post utilites chart again. You can see the quick spike from the 1 deviation to the 3 deviation at the same time as the EM market run.

The Peso which is below shoes this spike initially, which was posted and discussed in Feb and March.

So looking to EM market currencies. Maybe this is worth looking to for a signal to the SPX as it seemed to have lead the last drop and shows us the reverse of flows carry trade Interest rate speculations. 10 years hard as it acts differently in deflationary market. Maybe the best opportunity here is in the EM currencies or NZD and Aussie.

Just some thoughts....
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  • #5,378
  • Aug 7, 2016 8:49pm Aug 7, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting squawk
Looking again at EM markets Normally I would use the Peso as the proxy for EM market but has been reacting unusual lately possibly due to the unkown Trump factor. So looking again at the EM market I am using the ZAR. The chart below is the ZAR and SPX (blue). To me its clear that the last run in SPX has been totally fulled by risky carry trade which I think is pretty evident from currency standpoint in EM currencies but also the NZD and the AUD. For the hell of it I will post utilites chart again. You can see the quick spike from the 1 deviation...
Thanks for charts, interesting, ZAR see similar....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #5,379
  • Aug 7, 2016 11:27pm Aug 7, 2016 11:27pm
Completely agree with their forecast as the spread is just to wide and needed to narrow. I am deeply short NZD already so I'm a bit biased. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 50 point move this week, think the markets have a %17 change priced in.

BNZ adjust interest rate forecast to 1.5 (.75 points) by end of year by RBNZ.

If the market starts pricing this in we are going to get some moves on the Kiwi. That will put the spread at zero against the AUD.
  • #5,380
  • Aug 7, 2016 11:46pm Aug 7, 2016 11:46pm
NU Daily and hourly
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