Geppy vs. GJscalper - a duel to the death! | Page 128 | Forex Factory

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Geppy vs. GJscalper - a duel to the death!

  • #2,541
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:11am Aug 4, 2016 11:11am
there were really no fundamental or technical reasons to long usd/cad at those prices. If anything the pair will likely be stuck in range until September. At least you are humble about the incoming loss and wise enough to admit to over leveraging. This is simply my opinion, and I am not attempting to berate you or your speculations in any way!
  • #2,542
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:12am Aug 4, 2016 11:12am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Well aware of the daily picture and channel as I've posted about it for literally weeks now on my blog (every day). I'm just not willing to risk another 100 or so pips to put my SL safely below that channel support. I'd rather be taken out and evaluate whether I want to re-enter lower. And a support line only needs to points of contact to be valid, so not sure why you don't think it's an area of support on the 4-hour.
Tomorrow's news will almost certainly go to your stop loss. After that, maybe up in the following weeks depending if USDCAD can hold the 1.29 handle on the daily.
  • #2,543
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:15am Aug 4, 2016 11:15am
Quoting bdebaere
{quote} Tomorrow's news will almost certainly go to your stop loss. After that, maybe up in the following weeks depending if USDCAD can hold the 1.29 handle on the daily.
Well I guess that gives you something to do tomorrow then. Happy to be able to provide your entertainment.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,544
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:18am Aug 4, 2016 11:18am
Quoting F0reverForex
there were really no fundamental or technical reasons to long usd/cad at those prices. If anything the pair will likely be stuck in range until September. At least you are humble about the incoming loss and wise enough to admit to over leveraging. This is simply my opinion, and I am not attempting to berate you or your speculations in any way!
There are actually a ton of fundamental reasons. And I've gone through them all plenty of times on my blog and on these forums. Here's one just from yesterday: https://www.bespokepremium.com/think...than-expected/

I'm really glad everyone has an opinion though. It's pretty entertaining to see everyone critiquing my trades when they have nothing to show publicly themselves. I guess that's how most things in life are though.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,545
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:19am Aug 4, 2016 11:19am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} And a support line only needs to points of contact to be valid, so not sure why you don't think it's an area of support on the 4-hour.
because you can ever connect two points, so for me its not valid but anyway, its your trade, i wish you luck and maybe the round number will hold
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #2,546
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:23am Aug 4, 2016 11:23am
Quoting maximumguita
{quote} because you can ever connect two points, so for me its not valid but anyway, its your trade, i wish you luck and maybe the round number will hold
You can never connect two points? Well that's certainly a different way of thinking that I've ever encountered. In fact every trader I know starts trendlines by connecting two points. If you aren't, you're doing yourself a great disservice.

Also noticed you said in that previous post that my stop (1.2960) is right above the 50-day SMA. That's actually not true since the 50-day SMA is currently at 1.2973

Anyway, don't really see the point of continuing to discuss this trade. I think I've been pretty clear about it the whole way. We'll see what happens between now and tomorrow.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,547
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:27am Aug 4, 2016 11:27am
I'm posting this not to troll or rub salt in Geppy's wounds but as an example that maybe we can analyze and learn from.

This is how I personally see Usd/Cad. As you can see, Geppy starting buying in that teal colored circle -- right at the top of that move up from 1.29, right after the pair had just broken this triangle resistance. So, in my opinion, the timing of the trade was off to begin with. He should have waited to see if price retraced before entering. Remember too that he started building this trade one day before FOMC on an assumption he had that the statement would be hawkish, pushing the $ up, as well as other fundamental factors. But the FOMC statement disappointed and the price started dropping. Geppy then proceeded to scale in to the trade. A strategy that I am not a fan of. Currently the price is back at 1.30 again. On the 1 hr chart, it looks like we may get a triple bottom or we may see a break of that level as well as that rising trendline that forms the bottom of the ascending triangle. To me, the stop makes sense as I view 1.30 as being a bit of the line in the sand here.

So, in short, the timing of the trade was off and the money management was poor.

Just my two cents. Hopefully we can use this trade as an example and not just bash the guy. We've all put on some bad trades I'm sure and let our biases trump PA from time to time.
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  • #2,548
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:33am Aug 4, 2016 11:33am
[quote=Geppy;9067824]{quote} You can never connect two points? Well that's certainly a different way of thinking that I've ever encountered.

I wrote EVER not never (sorry im not a native speaker so i ment Everytime or always)! But im with you i also will not continuing discussing this trade
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #2,549
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:38am Aug 4, 2016 11:38am
Quoting Bushi-pips
I'm posting this not to troll or rub salt in Geppy's wounds but as an example that maybe we can analyze and learn from. This is how I personally see Usd/Cad. As you can see, Geppy starting buying in that teal colored circle -- right at the top of that move up from 1.29, right after the pair had just broken this triangle resistance. So, in my opinion, the timing of the trade was off to begin with. He should have waited to see if price retraced before entering. Remember too that he started building this trade one day before FOMC on an assumption he...
Wow, wouldn't it be great if everyone could make intelligent post, explaining why they see it the way they do, instead of bashing everyone who doesn't see it their way. One thing, I can say about Geppy is this, I have been trading since 2010, and lurked on here quite often and he was here back then, always providing good analysis and I'm sure he is a profitable trader overall. I do think this "duel" affected him for the worse in some ways, but overall I would say he is definitely in the top tier of traders on this site.

As far as the CAD, I made about 30% on it today, but I used EURCAD short as my vehicle. Flat on it now.
  • #2,550
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:38am Aug 4, 2016 11:38am
Quoting Bushi-pips
I'm posting this not to troll or rub salt in Geppy's wounds but as an example that maybe we can analyze and learn from. This is how I personally see Usd/Cad. As you can see, Geppy starting buying in that teal colored circle -- right at the top of that move up from 1.29, right after the pair had just broken this triangle resistance. So, in my opinion, the timing of the trade was off to begin with. He should have waited to see if price retraced before entering. Remember too that he started building this trade one day before FOMC on an assumption he...
*sigh*

I truly don't mind the post-mortem. But please, if you're going to do these... please, Please do your homework.

My first purchase in USD/CAD was on the 25th, two days before the FOMC announcement. This can be confirmed on my blog and via myfxbook. That purchase was done at 1.3140, not in the high 1.31's or 1.32 you pointed out.

I did start adding more as the pair moved higher after the initial retracement. But the trade was not put on due to FOMC. It was based on technicals... a breakout of the daily range.

The problems began because a) I added to the position too soon and b) the pair retraced a lot more than I'd expected. I should have cut the trade but I think I was excited to finally see this pair breaking out and got overly aggressive.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,551
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:41am Aug 4, 2016 11:41am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Wow, wouldn't it be great if everyone could make intelligent post, explaining why they see it the way they do, instead of bashing everyone who doesn't see it their way. One thing, I can say about Geppy is this, I have been trading since 2010, and lurked on here quite often and he was here back then, always providing good analysis and I'm sure he is a profitable trader overall. I do think this "duel" affected him for the worse in some ways, but overall I would say he is definitely in the top tier of traders on this site. As far as the CAD,...
Thanks, pipmaster. I do enjoy providing analysis and helping. It just gets insanely tiresome when people seem to want to attack your every move. I've tried being open and helpful like this in the past, but it always ends poorly because it seems there are always more people around that want to see you fail than those that want to learn and become successful.

Already feels like that's happening here.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,552
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:48am Aug 4, 2016 11:48am
[quote=pipmaster77;9067838]{quote} Wow, wouldn't it be great if everyone could make intelligent post, explaining why they see it the way they do, instead of bashing everyone who doesn't see it their way.

yes would be great
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #2,553
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:51am Aug 4, 2016 11:51am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} *sigh* I truly don't mind the post-mortem. But please, if you're going to do these... please, Please do your homework. My first purchase in USD/CAD was on the 25th, two days before the FOMC announcement. This can be confirmed on my blog and via myfxbook. That purchase was done at 1.3140, not in the high 1.31's or 1.32 you pointed out. I did start adding more as the pair moved higher after the initial retracement. But the trade was not put on due to FOMC....
Did the competitive duel format somewhat influenced your decision making process? I thought that might be the reason for the overly aggressive inclination and not cut the trade.
  • #2,554
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:54am Aug 4, 2016 11:54am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Did the competitive duel format somewhat influenced your decision making process? I thought that might be the reason for the overly aggressive inclination.
I don't want to blame it on that, because I feel like that's a bit sheepish, but I do think it was a big factor. You can see the beginning of my equity curve is pretty ugly too. I wanted to come out of the gates strong and just drop the hammer (so to speak).

But that never ends well, most of us probably know that.

And if you look at my trades recently, things have been pretty different as I've found a much better balance this week. So I'm looking forward to getting rid of this USD/CAD trade whichever way it goes, and moving forward trading as I usually do.

Hoping we can all continue good discussions and I welcome those with TE especially to participate in that. I'm not GJscammer, I'm not going to troll you for having an ugly TE or taking bad trades. I'm much more interested in helping folks "find their way".
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,555
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:56am Aug 4, 2016 11:56am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Thanks, pipmaster. I do enjoy providing analysis and helping. It just gets insanely tiresome when people seem to want to attack your every move. I've tried being open and helpful like this in the past, but it always ends poorly because it seems there are always more people around that want to see you fail than those that want to learn and become successful. Already feels like that's happening here.

Yes, I agree. I actually didn't start turning a profit until 2 years into trading and at the end of 2013 my entire trading career took off. It was actually due to a member here who openly shared his system in detail, provided all the indicators and template. People like this are very few and far between. I still use it to this day and am gradually moving to more time trading and less time at the regular career. Since my broker stopped offering cTrader and I had to resort back to MT4, it motivated me to put up a TE in an effort to show and help folks, with a special emphasis on the much greater profit potential without US regulations hindering your performance. In my opinion, a bad trader will always lose his account, the US regs just slow the process. However, a good trader suffers because it also slows the profits.
  • #2,556
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:58am Aug 4, 2016 11:58am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Yes, I agree. I actually didn't start turning a profit until 2 years into trading and at the end of 2013 my entire trading career took off. It was actually due to a member here who openly shared his system in detail, provided all the indicators and template. People like this are very few and far between. I still use it to this day and am gradually moving to more time trading and less time at the regular career. Since my broker stopped offering cTrader and I had to resort back to MT4, it motivated me to put up a TE in an effort to show and...
If I had to guess at who/what that system is, I'd have to say Auslanco?

Fond memories of that thread.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,557
  • Aug 4, 2016 12:00pm Aug 4, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} *sigh* I truly don't mind the post-mortem. But please, if you're going to do these... please, Please do your homework. My first purchase in USD/CAD was on the 25th, two days before the FOMC announcement. This can be confirmed on my blog and via myfxbook. That purchase was done at 1.3140, not in the high 1.31's or 1.32 you pointed out. I did start adding more as the pair moved higher after the initial retracement. But the trade was not put on due to FOMC. It was based on...
My apologies, your first trade was Sunday evening. Still, what difference does it make if you placed the trade 1, 2 or 3 days ahead of heavy event risk like FOMC? My point is that you had an initial bias towards that statement that turned out to be wrong. And yes, you did add more as price moved up a bit, but you also continued to add as price moved away from you. I don't believe that my initial assessment is wrong.

Again, not bashing. Just looking at this trade as a learning experience.
  • #2,558
  • Aug 4, 2016 12:02pm Aug 4, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} If I had to guess at who/what that system is, I'd have to say Auslanco? Fond memories of that thread.
Actually, it is forexalien. The thread is kind of dead now as well.
  • #2,559
  • Aug 4, 2016 12:03pm Aug 4, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting Bushi-pips
{quote} My apologies, your first trade was Sunday evening. Still, what difference does it make if you placed the trade 1, 2 or 3 days ahead of heavy event risk like FOMC? My point is that you had an initial bias towards that statement that turned out to be wrong. And yes, you did add more as price moved up a bit, but you also continued to add as price moved away from you. I don't believe that my initial assessment is wrong. Again, not bashing. Just looking at this trade as a learning experience.
Right... I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I did not put the trade on as a result of speculation as to what the FOMC would bring. Instead, I was hoping that the fundamentals (in this case FOMC) would offer a tailwind to the technicals that I was seeing. That's usually the case, and it's why I'm generally not too afraid of holding positions through the news.

Anyway, hoping we can drop it now and carry on.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,560
  • Aug 4, 2016 12:08pm Aug 4, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Yes, I agree. I actually didn't start turning a profit until 2 years into trading and at the end of 2013 my entire trading career took off. It was actually due to a member here who openly shared his system in detail, provided all the indicators and template. People like this are very few and far between. I still use it to this day and am gradually moving to more time trading and less time at the regular career. Since my broker stopped offering cTrader and I had to resort back to MT4, it motivated me to put up a TE in an effort to show and...
Most can't differentiate risk and leverage. High leverage availability does not equal risk. Man I miss the days of 400:1 here in the US. Made a killing with it from 2007 to late 2008 during the "financial crisis". Ahhh, the good old days.
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