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  • #1,073,241
  • Edited 3:01am Aug 4, 2016 2:23am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting baherhosni
I feel that the wave v that we just came back from to A is a wave 1 in a bigger bullish wave. That means that the ABC after v should be forming wave 2 of that bigger wave!
I hope you don't mind me bothering you with my theories all the time.
I am currently analyzing the USD Index Weekly and I see us finishing a bearish wave 2!!!
For the EURUSD....you have to look to the bigger picture...the bigger wave...that wave -v- could be the end of the major wave -b-/-iii-. That wave -b- is also around 90% of wave -ii- ...that's already deep (so I think we saw here a high...or in this area).... but it could fit for a wave b. In my last expectations I think the wave -c-/-iii- will be around 1.0717 .....

Ofcourse anything can happen but if you are right with a long bullish view then the total structure I have since mid 2014 will collapse!

What you are saying about the US-index.... you are analyzing the weekly....but are the lower waves fitting in the bigger waves with correct ratios? You can't just count your bigger waves without looking into those waves! Every wave must fit into eachother (with correct/exceptable ratios)...it's totally fractal. You can see that in the spreadsheet
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,242
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:25am Aug 4, 2016 2:25am
If I really wanna trade today:
1. I would trade small (trying mainly bearish) until the BoE rate decision.
2. I would stop trading before the news (about 4 hours now)
3. If they won't drop the Official Bank Rate in UK and fail again to do that,
the pound will rise along with the euro for a while as they did last time (check June the 14th)
...and vice versa

So no major option before the BoE decision, ...my plan
Member
  • #1,073,243
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:44am Aug 4, 2016 2:44am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Early Hours View Bearish technical tendency, related with some bearish fundamentals - who rules the market those days (ADP, ISM, NFP). For the early hours, E/U right between the 50 and 61.8 Brexit Fibo, again ...sleeping for 12 hours; resistance: - 1.1190 as Weekly-mid and 50% Brexit_Fibo; - 1.1203 DR1; - 1.1233 the highest E/U rate after Brexit; support (zone): - 1.1117 DS1; - 1.1108 Weekly_Pivot and 61.8 Brexit_Fibo; - 1.1100 as a psychologic threshold; Fundies: 1. Very important news from BoE today, is possible that GBP and EUR to dance together...
Hi TudorIoan,

I noticed that often my PivotPoints are a little different then yours. Are you using an indicator for that or ....?

The problem I have is that an indicator is not working for me because my broker is not starting the bar at the start of the new session...

For now I have another broker as test which is starting the daily bar at start of session. But I have the feeling he is using some sligthly different quotes then the real quotes...

Have you an idea/tip/hint how to solve this issue? So that I have the real PivotPoints!

Thanks.
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,244
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:46am Aug 4, 2016 2:46am
And stay close if they actually decrease the rates ...you will probably make a lotta money selling pound and euro
Member
  • #1,073,245
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:53am Aug 4, 2016 2:53am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi TudorIoan, I noticed that often my PivotPoints are a little different then yours. Are you using an indicator for that or ....? The problem I have is that an indicator is not working for me because my broker is not starting the bar at the start of the new session... For now I have another broker as test which is starting the daily bar at start of session. But I have the feeling he is using some sligthly different quotes then the real quotes... Have you an idea/tip/hint how to solve this issue? So that I have the real PivotPoints! Thanks....
Ooooh, the Pivot_Point issue...
I had the same trouble with my broker. They used the correct classic formula but their entries were wrong
So I calculated PP manually for a long time
I e-mailed many times to them ...they argued the formula is perfect LOL
Finally, they admitted they were wrong, apologized, and revised the platform because of me LOL

So probably you shoud write to them about, specifying the wrong data entries (not the formula), and ask them to check it porperly
Member
  • #1,073,246
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:57am Aug 4, 2016 2:57am
DAILY: It seems it will try to touch middle of Bollinger which is at this point also somewhere in 50% pull-back area of the last jump.
4HR: Trying to touch 100MA (equivalent of daily middle Bollinger)

Both ways are possible after that:

up - start a wave C upwards
down - retesting previous two bottoms or postponing a decision for wave C until the area of lower Bollinger)

  • #1,073,247
  • Aug 4, 2016 2:58am Aug 4, 2016 2:58am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Ooooh, the Pivot_Point issue... I had the same trouble with my broker. They used the correct classic formula but their entries were wrong So I calculated PP manually for a long time I e-mailed many times to them ...they argued the formula is perfect LOL Finally, they admitted they were wrong, apologized, and revised the platform because of me LOL So probably you shoud write to them about, specifying the wrong data entries, and ask them to check it porperly
Indeed....at least wrong entries on my production platform...
and indeed I calculate them for myself now

Well in that case...My broker does not deliver a pivot point indicator at MetaTrader Platform. Then I believe I have to change or make a pivot calculator by myself with the correct entries.

Thanks!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,248
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:09am Aug 4, 2016 3:09am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Indeed....at least wrong entries on my production platform... and indeed I calculate them for myself now Well in that case...My broker does not deliver a pivot point indicator at MetaTrader Platform. Then I believe I have to change or make a pivot calculator by myself with the correct entries. Thanks!!
To ease calculations:
Here's my Pivot_Point Excel Shit.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly shits already filled with EUR/USD historical data.
You just have to entry OHLC data and the levels pops up
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls pivot_data_2.xls   246 KB | 414 downloads
Member
  • #1,073,249
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:10am Aug 4, 2016 3:10am
Ask TudorIoan for his Formula,
  • #1,073,250
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:20am Aug 4, 2016 3:20am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} To ease calculations: Here's my Pivot_Point Excel Shit. Daily, Weekly and Monthly shits already filled with EUR/USD historical data. You just have to entry OHLC data and the levels pops up {file}
Thanks!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,251
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:29am Aug 4, 2016 3:29am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks!!
Glad to help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zhart.png Size: 65 KB
Member
  • #1,073,252
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:45am Aug 4, 2016 3:45am
Quoting TudorIoan
And stay close if they actually decrease the rates ...you will probably make a lotta money selling pound and euro
14th of jun was thisThank you also for the file
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2016-08-04-13-05-44.jpg Size: 751 KB
  • #1,073,253
  • Edited 4:11am Aug 4, 2016 3:50am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} To ease calculations: Here's my Pivot_Point Excel Shit. Daily, Weekly and Monthly shits already filled with EUR/USD historical data. You just have to entry OHLC data and the levels pops up {file}
Thnx for the downloads, guys!
Well, I think it is heltpful also because that historical data is colected carefully, manually, every day by me.
...sites data, brokers data may not be as accurate!

So if you want to backtest PP strategies it can be useful, I guess.
Good luck to you all, whatever your startegy is!
Member
  • #1,073,254
  • Edited 4:10am Aug 4, 2016 3:54am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting Soroushno
{quote} 14th of jun was thisThank you also for the file {image}
Wooooooow, so sorry! Happens ...too hasty sometimes!
I typed it wrong, it's about July the 14th ...not Jun 14th
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zhart.png Size: 14 KB
Member
  • #1,073,255
  • Aug 4, 2016 4:23am Aug 4, 2016 4:23am
I see bearish channel here on daily and seems moving down, shorts opened.
SL 1.128, TP 1.0980 and below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-04 1100 [EURUSD,Daily] short-opened.png Size: 55 KB
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #1,073,256
  • Aug 4, 2016 4:23am Aug 4, 2016 4:23am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Wooooooow, so sorry! Happens ...too hasty sometimes! I typed it wrong, it's about July the 14th ...not Jun 14th {image}
It was Nice day wish happen again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2016-08-04-13-50-06.jpg Size: 797 KB
  • #1,073,257
  • Aug 4, 2016 4:30am Aug 4, 2016 4:30am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Early Hours View Bearish technical tendency, related with some bearish fundamentals - who rules the market those days (ADP, ISM, NFP). For the early hours, E/U right between the 50 and 61.8 Brexit Fibo, again ...sleeping for 12 hours; resistance: - 1.1190 as Weekly-mid and 50% Brexit_Fibo; - 1.1203 DR1; - 1.1233 the highest E/U rate after Brexit; support (zone): - 1.1117 DS1; - 1.1108 Weekly_Pivot and 61.8 Brexit_Fibo; - 1.1100 as a psychologic threshold; Fundies: 1. Very important news from BoE today, is possible that GBP and EUR to dance together...
Nice summary! tks, today it is better not entrying orders due to significant events such as BOE rate cut.
  • #1,073,258
  • Aug 4, 2016 5:10am Aug 4, 2016 5:10am
What happens to EUR/USD in case of rate drop at BoE. And what happens when rates stay the same?
  • #1,073,259
  • Edited 5:51am Aug 4, 2016 5:26am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting vnkingfx
{quote} Nice summary! tks, today it is better not entrying orders due to significant events such as BOE rate cut.
Well, that's what I think. But if they cut rates E/U, G/U might dive deep for a short while ...and I'll regret I have not entered
Quoting taciho
What happens to EUR/USD in case of rate drop at BoE. And what happens when rates stay the same?
If they cut is very possible to happen just the opposite as Soroushno trader post the 14th July chart above
Quoting voty
I see bearish channel here on daily and seems moving down, shorts opened. SL 1.128, TP 1.0980 and below. {image}
Reasonable technical assesment/choice.
Edit: if you insist to sell before the news (!) set your SL high, away from the volatile waves in 10 minutes now!
Otherwise your SL will be swept, even if E/U will go down later.
Member
  • #1,073,260
  • Aug 4, 2016 5:53am Aug 4, 2016 5:53am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} For the EURUSD....you have to look to the bigger picture...the bigger wave...that wave -v- could be the end of the major wave -b-/-iii-. That wave -b- is also around 90% of wave -ii- ...that's already deep (so I think we saw here a high...or in this area).... but it could fit for a wave b. In my last expectations I think the wave -c-/-iii- will be around 1.0717 ..... Ofcourse anything can happen but if you are right with a long bullish view then the total structure I have since mid 2014 will collapse! What you are saying about the US-index.......
Yes my friend, I did consider the retrace down to as 1071. I am actually hinting about the waves beyond this one. Of course I am not solid in HEW as you know just trying my theories with someone who is! Do you have a count for the weekly wave?
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
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