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  • #142,161
  • Edited 3:50pm Aug 2, 2016 3:27pm | Edited 3:50pm
This is great thanks. Playing around with it now. A question I have (for anyone) is when determining the risk reaction to nfp do we only look at it in terms of its influence on rates (likelihood of hike/no hike) or is it important at all to separately consider it's value as a general indicator of economic climate in the us? Is it important to a trader making a map for gold or equities (purely from risk perspective) not to only focus on the rates but the bigger picture in which interest rates are a (albeit large) part? And is this a question that really just depends on the time frame one is considering/trading?(Forgive me if too rudimentary for this thread).
  • #142,162
  • Aug 2, 2016 4:22pm Aug 2, 2016 4:22pm
Slightly bearish close in the Euro with FED flop bulls still holding for now....

Quoting goosebone
...risk reaction to nap do we only look at it in terms of its influence on rates (likelihood of hike/no hike) or is it important at all to separately consider i...
Depends what is in play from the macro front.

Most of the time NFP is mainly important as primary indicator for the health in the economy and employment trend no because of rates. However, as you well know we are in FED rates cycle since last November which is a very unique and particular rates normalisation case (there is no previous historical case for 8 years with nearly 0 rates).

Until March this year all was on track for hikes so we were tracking NFP as a benchmark for hikes or not hikes in the next meeting. US GDP flopped and we had a major historical flop out of the mean in NFP then Brexit triggered global jitters short-circuiting the process.

From a strictly macro perspective, the current NFP should have nothing in play (we are hovering full employment and employment trend is very solid) and hikes should have been done June or latest July and now theoretically September. The slight problem now is that 3/4 of the global markets are on recession or on the brink of major downturns (UK/Europe/Japan) and a flop in NFP will send shockwaves that the US will be unable to hold it.

The upcoming NFP is important from both sides if we have a major overshoot (hikes sept) or major undershoot (risk and global slowdown) which is a very particular case.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,163
  • Aug 2, 2016 4:28pm Aug 2, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting sisse
Slightly bearish close in the Euro with FED flop bulls still holding for now....
Thank you. I see it clearer now.
  • #142,164
  • Aug 2, 2016 5:20pm Aug 2, 2016 5:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} In Gold check chart above as its very visual and easy to understand. No hikes FED June/July (main monetary policy side) with BOE/ECB/RBA/BOJ and you name it with even deeper stimulus and rate cuts. No brainer Brexit on the risk side. All ducks aligned ... sisse
Thanks.
(Your explanation to goosebone was much clearer).
  • #142,165
  • Aug 3, 2016 2:51am Aug 3, 2016 2:51am
Sisse, Can I join you question?
My answer is a and c.
For BOE a. There is no clear report show that brexit show more negative result for uk market(since BOE already done once as your post). So its doing nothing.
For NFP c. US may have a good number but since may be market already align with it and wait for next FED round.

Thank you.
  • #142,166
  • Aug 3, 2016 3:44am Aug 3, 2016 3:44am
...and that was it for the European opening. UK confirming slow down in all PMIs on the first round after the vote but more importantly HSBC with awful reports becoming the 3er large bank in the UK since Brexit (and this one is global as its a benchmark for HK, Brazil and UK) triggering major warning alerts.

All eyes on European Equities until the european close for tomorrow BOE with OIL flirting to scape the range if we print bad numbers this week. On the FX board, Sterling one more time in the driver seat this week with a key BOE in play. 1.322x only level to track as it's the rain maker for the break on BOE or retrace on flop.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,167
  • Aug 3, 2016 4:14am Aug 3, 2016 4:14am
Quoting Xemat
Sisse, Can I join you question? My answer is a and c. For BOE a. There is no clear report show that brexit show more negative result for uk market(since BOE already done once as your post). So its doing nothing. For NFP c. US may have a good number but since may be market already align with it and wait for next FED round. Thank you.
Sure you can.

Ok first the odds of BOE doing nothing tomorrow are very very very very very low to none. Market expectations are heavily aligned to some action.

So for the sake of your answers, lets assume you want to trade those expectations (BOE doing nothing with a super positive outlook for the UK economy for the rest of the year and good NFP for hikes September) against the general market expectations. Fine, nothing wrong so what you are implying is:

-> BOE nothing and even 'hawkish' on positive economic outlook meaning GOLD down via monetary policy and risk + -> Hikes September via a good NFP meaning GOLD down via monetary policy

So you want a double whammy in play and you obviously want to go aggressive short in GOLD. Just plot your mid and short term map (mid term also because your play is major game changer for next month), define your flip, find your cheap tickets areas or entries and ride it to your targets.

Its nothing wrong on wanting to play only your specific bias on expectations as long as you don't get emotional and only trade if IT ACTUALLY happens as you will be betting against market consensus.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,168
  • Aug 3, 2016 4:24am Aug 3, 2016 4:24am
Morning,

C and C please, Sir.
  • #142,169
  • Aug 3, 2016 5:40am Aug 3, 2016 5:40am
Hi sisse,
If c and c occurred, would you be considering changing the short-term outlook to neutral in gold until further data & the next FOMC minutes?

Quoting sisse
And here ws go. Last channce for Euro to decouple from the carry trade.
How did you gauge if the euro decouples from the carry trade? Was it down to a TA level breached or held, based on your current outlook. Finding this concept difficult to understand & putting a trade plan in place for eur/usd.

Regards, pas.
  • #142,170
  • Aug 3, 2016 7:29am Aug 3, 2016 7:29am
Inline marginally better ADP ...nothing new, nothing to see till NY.

Quoting PAStalker
....How did you gauge if the euro decouples from the carry trade?
When Equities break correlation with risk and start moving in direct relation with Euro.

Quote
Was it down to a TA level breached or held, based on your current outlook. Finding this concept difficult to understand & putting a trade plan in place for eur/usd. Regards, pas.

No.

3 things.

-> First we are here:

Quoting sisse
..and here we go for the FED....
Only a major flop, will trigger clearing of short term only remaing positions for an attempt to squeze shorts with a break 1.108x [check ->we are in this play] but nothing tradable [poor r:r] for my taste especially with so many other great opps across the board.
FED triggered the squeeze and we closed iteration 14 (stopped out on the remaining...check back post for more info)....

-> Second here is the same sketch of change outlook to shorts we have been trading live a few times already in the last couple of months in different instruments. The map concept is the same over and over either for outlook buy or sell.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: outlooksell.png Size: 328 KB


Once the squeeze was completely (right on time for BOE and NFP especially) we opened iteration 16 here:

Quoting sisse
...

===Table Closed===

Iteration 16

++++Currently EURO is trading 1.121x++++

(Elapsed Time 2 days 12 hours)

"arghh revenge, calm or I am done with it"


--> And third, As you can see, the entry point on iteration 16 was chosen on purpose as it's a very tricky point TAwise as its the break back or trap level for this week ....by now the concept of outlooks and maps should be fairly obvious but as few people (specially new comers in this discussion) seem to be a bit confuse. Here is the iteration chart update for reference.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.png Size: 169 KB


You can clearly see why we have choose your poison time in the Euro FAwise and also the fairly simple option TA wise. Don't want to jump on to equities correlation now as we have way too much info at the table with GOLD and Euro already but you can fire your S&P (ES) chart, draw your map, and draw the options for the rest of the summer ...then you may be able to answer yourself the question about how can you gauge if the euro decouples...

I hope it helps

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,171
  • Aug 3, 2016 8:41am Aug 3, 2016 8:41am
In terms of expectations, c & c seem the most appropriate ones. However, the Pound is anyway in downtrend without any rate cut (i.e., bad data over the places in particular from financial and real estate bodies) and we have an interim government, I opt to the idea of status quo (I.e., no change from BOE).
Is it a reasonable plan? any thought?
  • #142,172
  • Aug 3, 2016 9:15am Aug 3, 2016 9:15am
inline/slightly miss in US numbers, nothing new and opening range completed. Eyes on OIL taking back 40.3x after Europe goes home for the BOE/NFP play as it will also unlock the CAD play for those tracking the next leg. Then will have all markets cleared for the next short term swings.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,173
  • Aug 3, 2016 1:10pm Aug 3, 2016 1:10pm
Is this not the way the big cats trade? Please comment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Calendar 2017 with trading days.png Size: 856 KB
  • #142,174
  • Aug 3, 2016 3:57pm Aug 3, 2016 3:57pm
No surprises across the board for the close. As widely expected since yesterday Euro was bearish and back to 1.116x for the roll, S&P back to square one on the last break, and OIL triggering40.3x. More importantly in a no brainer flow so far and right on time for the BOE GOLD in choose your poison time:

Quoting sisse
...shorts out. a++++Currently GOLD is trading 1359.xx++++ Iteration 15 "All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is" Update 2 (Elapsed time 4 day 4 hours) -> LMT BUY


===============OPENING Iteration 15a ==============

++++Currently GOLD is trading 1359.xx++++

"All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is"

ONLY FOR LONGS

-> LMT BUY 1330.x [check] -> TP1 => 1360.x [check] | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

aEarleone

DexterMorgan

Fadhl

ptoftangency

goosebone

manosk

PAStalker

rattyo


KEY BOE on the headlines coming, NFP on the background right after. Opening iteration 15a for those long. How would you manage the remaining position?

a. I am not sure. "BOE is not going to cut rates I better clear all for reaming positions"
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "BOE will cut with dovish outlook and NFP will be +/-inline"
c. I am more bullish than ever "BOE is going for a bazooka in all fronts and NFP is going to be inline or better" I am 'adding longs 1360 -> for double TP2 and double TP3
d. "BOE is going to flop" I will play the 'reverso' so I will switch remaining positions to shorts targets in GOLD ticks 1350x. after the BOE.


If you don't reply is assume you stay put...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,175
  • Aug 3, 2016 4:13pm Aug 3, 2016 4:13pm
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "BOE will cut with dovish outlook and NFP will be +/-inline"
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,176
  • Aug 3, 2016 5:06pm Aug 3, 2016 5:06pm
B for me
  • #142,177
  • Aug 3, 2016 7:16pm Aug 3, 2016 7:16pm
[quote=sisse;9064398]{quote} Sure you can. Ok first the ...

Thank you for your advice Sisse.
  • #142,178
  • Aug 3, 2016 8:08pm Aug 3, 2016 8:08pm
d. "BOE is going to flop" I will play the 'reverso' so I will switch remaining positions to shorts targets in GOLD ticks 1350x. after the BOE.
  • #142,179
  • Aug 3, 2016 9:06pm Aug 3, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting sisse
sisse
Appreciate the reply.

Quoting sisse
No surprises
Seems the obvious choice from the last 2 days discussions.

b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "BOE will cut with dovish outlook and NFP will be +/-inline"

Just wonder if an inline NFP would stop the push up from the poor GDP as inline BOE expectation mostly priced in already or is the natural ebb & flow up after.
  • #142,180
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:40am Aug 4, 2016 3:40am
The UK will now join the ranks of QE, and cuts. In this new economy, lots of questions.

Noticed BOE forecasting (nominal) forward curve gilts higher, and while implied is still negative, it is slightly higher. (Aug figures).

A few notes:
-Forwards appear to have discounted the 25bps
-BOE may reinstate APF

Big item is has the RPm been priced into the pound/euro already?
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