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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,001
  • Jul 27, 2016 8:09am Jul 27, 2016 8:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am not sure if you are reading this right. First I don't think a hike is in play for today (odds are near zero to none) under most, if not all, scenarios. --> Markets have a very strong hand now over CBs. Macro fundamentals are diverging (and importantly) from financial markets. CBs are flooding the markets short term with liquidity so like always you ride the pig short term and ask the question later. As long as CBs are flooding the markets with liquidity and free money, markets will 'ignore' all negative news until the trend exhaust...
Sisse,

I understand that for today's session the expectation is next to zero for any rate hike. But exactly because of this divergence between fundamentals and financial markets and exactly because of the longer term consequences of FED not doing anything or not reigning over this divergence and because the FED needs to gain the upper hand again (I mean it is the CB that everyone is looking up to) it might surprise the market with a symbolic yet strategic rate hike that will trigger a correction in the very short term but align markets in the medium term as US elections come into play and they don't want impartial policy makers influencing the outcome.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #142,002
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:11am Jul 27, 2016 10:11am
...and that was pretty much it until the FED. Oil on the move as expected and US equities right on time back in choose your poison time for the FED.

Quoting manosk
{quote} with a symbolic yet strategic rate hike that will trigger a correction in the very short term but align markets in the medium term as US elections come into play and they don't want impartial policy makers influencing the outcome.
Well I wouldn't call it symbolic rather a massive surprise move and it will caught 99.99% of the markets with the wrong foot but I see what you are aiming to.

Indeed there is a 70 / 30 chance that the FED today will be very hawkish for September. That will keep markets on check with world CB pumping money while the FED plays the ebb and flow depending on how bad will be the upcoming numbers in the next few weeks especially from Europe.

For now we are entering in no man land with Europe going home till the news in a couple of hours.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,003
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:26am Jul 27, 2016 10:26am
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it until the FED. Oil on the move as expected and US equities right on time back in choose your poison time for the FED. {quote} Well I wouldn't call it symbolic rather a massive surprise move and it will caught 99.99% of the markets with the wrong foot but I see what you are aiming to. Indeed there is a 70 / 30 chance that the FED today will be very hawkish for September. That will keep markets on check with world CB pumping money while the FED plays the ebb and flow depending on how bad will be the upcoming numbers...
Agreed. By symbolic I meant it will not significantly change borrowing requirements but surely it will be a massive shocker. Anyway, I certainly agree that hike or not in this round, they will be hawkish for September to keep the market on check. Good point
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #142,004
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:59am Jul 27, 2016 10:59am
It has been a very quiet July on the iteration front since Euro got stuck in chop zone for most of the month but today is a good time to open the 15th iteration in the set.

We have moved from the very basic concepts [now seem to be very clear for those who initially asked a couple of month ago] and now is time to expand the horizons to start exploring some more complex market correlations.

+++++Opening table for the 5th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market short term+++++



--> Question 15: Central Banks are on a rampage worldwide with FED as only one left playing carrots and sticks from global jitters. How to play the FED flows in alternative markets for the summer?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R. It's titled: "All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is" and its aim to define some fundamental correlation between monetary policy (CB) and GOLD.

--> Choose your poison ASAP. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all. Updates will come in later...

2 options for this iteration. No time limit for longs or shorts:

++++Currently GOLD is trading 1326.xx++++

""All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is""


-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*


-> LMT SELL 1330.x -> TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | | TP3 => 1170.x | STP => 1360.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,005
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:11am Jul 27, 2016 11:11am
No interest, would rather sell higher and not interested in buying at all
  • #142,006
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:17am Jul 27, 2016 11:17am
-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*
.

Technical outlook for me:
4H Strong Buy
Daily Neutral
Weekly Strong Buy
Monthly Stong buy
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,007
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:17am Jul 27, 2016 11:17am
Quoting sisse
It has been a very quiet July on the iteration front since Euro got stuck in chop zone for most of the month but today is a good time to open the 15th iteration in the set. We have moved from the very basic concepts [now seem to be very clear for those who initially asked a couple of month ago] and now is time to expand the horizons to start exploring some more complex market correlations. +++++Opening table for the 5th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market short term+++++ --> Question 15: Central Banks are on a rampage...
Hi Sisse, Buy please.
  • #142,008
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:22am Jul 27, 2016 11:22am
Don't trade gold but if sisse let me in then sell please..
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,009
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:22am Jul 27, 2016 11:22am
Thaks Earlone and DexterMorgan..first to take the plunge, the hardest.

GL if you are trading live.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,010
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:25am Jul 27, 2016 11:25am
LMT SELL 1330
  • #142,011
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:39am Jul 27, 2016 11:39am
Limit Buy please! it's not just for the summer (long term).
  • #142,012
  • Edited 12:07pm Jul 27, 2016 11:43am | Edited 12:07pm
Shy board ...come on jump in. Second Call.

IN

++++Currently GOLD is trading 1326.xx++++

Iteration 15

"All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is"


-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Earleone

DexterMorgan

Fadhl

ptoftangency

goosebone

manosk


-> LMT SELL 1330.x -> TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | | TP3 => 1170.x | STP => 1360.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Grinsakh

nutts

eborn

TuTang


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,013
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:50am Jul 27, 2016 11:50am
sell please
  • #142,014
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:53am Jul 27, 2016 11:53am
Quoting sisse
Shy board ...come on jump in. Second Call. IN ++++Currently GOLD is trading 1326.xx++++ Iteration 15 "All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is" -> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* Earleone DexterMorgan Fadhl -> LMT SELL 1330.x -> TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | | TP3 => 1170.x | STP => 1360.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* Grinsakh...

Sisse,

I'll take

-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*
  • #142,015
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:54am Jul 27, 2016 11:54am
I'll take SELL
  • #142,016
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:55am Jul 27, 2016 11:55am
Buy please
  • #142,017
  • Jul 27, 2016 11:59am Jul 27, 2016 11:59am
-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*


please
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #142,018
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:01pm Jul 27, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting sisse
Shy board ...come on jump in. Second Call. IN ++++Currently GOLD is trading 1326.xx++++ Iteration 15 "All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is" -> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* Earleone DexterMorgan Fadhl -> LMT SELL 1330.x -> TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | | TP3 => 1170.x | STP => 1360.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* Grinsakh...
I'd like to join in here gold with lmt sell 1330
Reason: we are entering risk on tonight
  • #142,019
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:05pm Jul 27, 2016 12:05pm
..and here we go for the FED. Simple expecations for todayw ith only one issue in play....

--> On the Fundamental side:

There is no excuses from a US macro perspective. All factors in the US economy are aligned for a hike. From inflation to employment, to equities flying high, to most if not all sectors with healthy numebers (bar banks a bit), US election still far enough to create a gap and we can go forever.

There is no single good reason for FED to delay but still it wont be clear.

Global jitters short term has vanished short term for the summer but a massive storm of epic proprtions is on the horizon in the Global Economy. As long as we don't get the first real numbers from the UK and Europe in general by early autumn, the clouds wont dissapear but rather get darker.

UK is heading to soft recession at least next year, the EZ to stagnation at best, Japan a walking dead, China keep landing and 3/4 of emerging economies already in recession ....

 

  1. What is in play for today. Simple. Either we ignore fudamentals for a couple of months via liquidity and CB free money or we take profits and start alignign for the correction.

--> On the technical side,

Equities in full control.

Inline, reltivly muted FED for keep the status quo 2160.xx -> 2185.xx for the BOJ/BOE combo to clear up for a potential extension even higher in August.

A very hawkish FED september with strong economic outlook to also keep the status quo and form chop zone (212x - 218x for the rest of the summer) to test the highs with the CBs worlwide flooding the markets.

--> For the actual flows (euro only),

Nothing to see or do.

We are still sitting in imminent break down for a while now so a hawkish FED unlocks the floor for a direct 5th attempt to complete the short and mid term targets already in play (check backpost for ref).

A inline or muted FED will leave us in same chop zone till the BOJ shake the currency board.

Only a major flop, will trigger clearing of short term only remaing positions for an attempt to squeze shorts with a break 1.108x but nothing tradable [poor r:r] for my taste especially with so many other great opps across the board.

GL all trading, planning to trade or simple tracking the FED.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,020
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:07pm Jul 27, 2016 12:07pm
Sell please
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