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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #3,041
  • Jul 29, 2016 2:53pm Jul 29, 2016 2:53pm
Monday
17:00
08/01/16
US ISM index of business optimism
(US ISM Manufacturing PMI), USA, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
20% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,042
  • Aug 1, 2016 1:47am Aug 1, 2016 1:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1.png Size: 85 KB
  • #3,043
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:03am Aug 1, 2016 7:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_6.png Size: 81 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,044
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:06am Aug 1, 2016 7:06am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,045
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:09am Aug 1, 2016 7:09am
Tuesday
7:30
08/02/16
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The market and the official forecasts suggest lower interest rates RBA from 1.75% to 1.5%. there are also opposed ideas, albeit in fairly small quantities Despite such a broad view.
This signal is sent without delay, since its publication formalized.
The Reserve Bank will indeed be something to ponder: on opposite sides of it will push data to reduce inflationary pressures and an overheated real estate market, which may be even more heated from the low lending rates.
20 out of 25 economists Bloomberg predict a decrease in interest rates.
Also, the pressure on the RBA may have a weak US second quarter GDP data released on Friday (in fact 1.2% vs. 2.5% forecast). Earlier, the RBA has repeatedly spoken about the attractiveness of the weakening of the national currency.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,046
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:09am Aug 1, 2016 7:09am
Quoting fibo38
{image}
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,047
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:14am Aug 1, 2016 7:14am
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big spread on execution.. but overall getting better..
"it's true .... Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."
  • #3,048
  • Aug 1, 2016 7:22am Aug 1, 2016 7:22am
Quoting keygen81
{image} big spread on execution.. but overall getting better.. "it's true .... Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_5.png Size: 27 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,049
  • Aug 1, 2016 9:36am Aug 1, 2016 9:36am
But what happened to DAX?

I can't find any news related.
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #3,050
  • Aug 1, 2016 10:27pm Aug 1, 2016 10:27pm
Wednesday
15:15
08/03/16
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:30
08/03/16
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,051
  • Aug 1, 2016 10:35pm Aug 1, 2016 10:35pm
Quoting PowerTrade
But what happened to DAX? I can't find any news related.
DAX is also a reaction to the joint venture and Siemens,SP500.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,052
  • Aug 1, 2016 11:48pm Aug 1, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} DAX is also a reaction to the joint venture and Siemens,SP500.
Thanks
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #3,053
  • Aug 2, 2016 6:33pm Aug 2, 2016 6:33pm
vvF, how long does it take you to typically recognize when a trade has gone bad? Seems like it could take a bit for direction to reveal itself and spread to calm down after major news. I have been using your approach but have been burned a few times. I am thinking I might need to have a faster trigger on bad trades. How long does it take you?
  • #3,054
  • Aug 2, 2016 8:32pm Aug 2, 2016 8:32pm
Quoting nonlinear
vvF, how long does it take you to typically recognize when a trade has gone bad? Seems like it could take a bit for direction to reveal itself and spread to calm down after major news. I have been using your approach but have been burned a few times. I am thinking I might need to have a faster trigger on bad trades. How long does it take you?
If you are not sure to entering a trade always advise to put a stop, which will prevent your account from huge losses.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,055
  • Aug 3, 2016 12:09am Aug 3, 2016 12:09am
Hii,
Could you explain RBA cut rate, may be BOE cut rate, why currency AUD EUR JPY stronger?
Yesterday RBA cut rate, AUD up??
  • #3,056
  • Aug 3, 2016 1:20am Aug 3, 2016 1:20am
[quote = vvFish; 9060918] {quote} {image} [/ quote]


Good !!!!!!. You can explain this operation ?
  • #3,057
  • Aug 3, 2016 5:17am Aug 3, 2016 5:17am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} If you are not sure to entering a trade always advise to put a stop, which will prevent your account from huge losses.
Spreads sometime peak 10-15+ pips which triggers SL. Do you set stops outside expected spread spikes?
  • #3,058
  • Aug 3, 2016 7:55am Aug 3, 2016 7:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_4.png Size: 34 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,059
  • Edited Aug 4, 2016 2:08am Aug 3, 2016 8:01am | Edited Aug 4, 2016 2:08am
Thursday
14:00
08/04/16
GB Official BA rate
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The Bank of England not only decides on interest rates and incentive programs, but also publish a quarterly inflation report. Planned dense flow of information prevents the need for additional security measures the behavior of traders.
Brexit happened referendum could provoke a decrease of economic growth. This statement is also supported by Governor of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. If earlier it was expected to see growth of 2.3% in 2016, is currently 1% per year is an optimistic scenario.

Business sentiment fell and crossed into pessimism zone according to PMI:
Manufacturing PMI 48.2
Services PMI 47.4
Construction PMI 45.9

Recall that the presence of these indicators below the level of "50", is regarded as pessimistic and suggests a reduction of business activity.

Mark Carney shortly after the June referendum promised that BA will consider the possibility of lowering the interest rate at the meeting in July, and it will produce a decrease in August. Official projections suggest a decrease in the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25%. It is also expected that the Bank will take a series of measures to stimulate and add 50-75mlrd to the monthly redemption for the APF program, while official forecasts do not imply an increase from the current level of 375mlrd.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

52 economists surveyed, 2 think the rate will remain at .50%, 47 think it will drop to .25%, 2 think it will drop to .10%, and 1 thinks it will drop to .00%.

Also BOE governor Carney will be giving its first detailed assessment of the economy since the Brexit vote. This will be very closely watched and could result in quite a bit of volatility, most likely in the down direction. It is expected he will announce slow growth and rising inflation (contradictory conditions), with the potential of a stimulus package.

We have some disagreement but not nearly like we did last month. If the rate stays at .50% there will be a huge spike up, bigger than last month. If it falls to .25% there will be a lot of thrashing around but not a big spike down, at least until Carney speaks. Of course if it drops to .10 or 0% there will be a huge spike down.

So we have possibilities of spikes up or down, but the odds are slim for either one.

Good Luk everybody.

Thursday
15:30
08/04/16
US weekly jobless report
(US Unemployment Claims), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
08/04/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,060
  • Aug 4, 2016 4:08am Aug 4, 2016 4:08am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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