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  • #1,073,001
  • Jul 30, 2016 9:33am Jul 30, 2016 9:33am
I think short
Point of departure is unknown yet.
I am looking forward to about 1.1117.
We'll see next week, when boarding
or not
I hope i am right.
  • #1,073,002
  • Jul 30, 2016 9:38am Jul 30, 2016 9:38am
And here my current market-view:

Yesterday my HEW-count was broken. Well I did my best and I believe I have a new valid count.
For now I see 1,1264 as next-high.... possibly the current double can change into a tripple... we have to look how price behave around that point I think.
(See also my blog.)
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,003
  • Jul 30, 2016 1:34pm Jul 30, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting HappyMe
And here my current market-view: Yesterday my HEW-count was broken. Well I did my best and I believe I have a new valid count. For now I see 1,1264 as next-high.... possibly the current double can change into a tripple... we have to look how price behave around that point I think. (See also my blog.) {image}
So better to not risk and Trade lightly
  • #1,073,004
  • Jul 30, 2016 2:43pm Jul 30, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting Soroushno
{quote} So better to not risk and Trade lightly
All trading is risk by the way

Also, the retrace can be at least 30, 40, 70 even as far as 100 pips depending on who you ask!!
Somce traders will not trade the retrace and look for a long entry low and some will short trade the retrace as in the case of aggressive trading. Others may even say the up move is over, we are waiting for the confirmation signal to take a bearish wave.

So just practice the MM and the RM and trade the probables.. If you are new to FX or coming back from a trading vacation, better get a handle on the market using a Demo for some time first.

END OF TEXT....

I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,005
  • Jul 30, 2016 2:45pm Jul 30, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting HappyMe
And here my current market-view: Yesterday my HEW-count was broken. Well I did my best and I believe I have a new valid count. For now I see 1,1264 as next-high.... possibly the current double can change into a tripple... we have to look how price behave around that point I think. (See also my blog.) {image}

So.. (b) is between 1100 and 1080 in your view?
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,006
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 30, 2016 4:16pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} So.. (b) is between 1100 and 1080 in your view?
You are right...that isn't clear in the picture.... I just copied the screenshot from my blog to here. but I think we can look between 1,1145 to 1,1080.... I personally prefer the 1,1100. But actually you must read it with the following text:

"We are now in the last abc of the double...and I think we just saw the wave a. So I expect a move down in the wave b and afterwards a final(?) upmove

I expect the wave b around DP (1,1145) or mid-band of PChannel, the round number 1,1100 (is also around the sma200 in the 4H, would be a nice place. I watch bullish candles around the Pivots there.... and the lowest I can see 1,1080 (ema21 in the 4H-chart).
Then a last(?) move up towards 1,1245-64. this area is also Pivot Resistance halfway and around the ema365 (in the daily).
Then we have to look if this is the high or that this double is changing in a triple..... time will learn I think...."


btw: if the resistance is broken at 1,1295....that is absolute no problem for this count.... the only thing what will change is that we are not in the green wave a/ii now..... but already in the green wave b/ii. For now it is of no concern...we just must follow this retracement and looks how far it will come. It only would be a problem if we come above 1,1427. That would need a total overhaul of this count.... I can't imagine that we come that high at this point.... well never say never in the market

btw....this HEW-thing is only an indicator! an extra hint of direction and eventually stallingpoint. Please thread it also like that!

Hope this makes it clearer....?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,007
  • Jul 30, 2016 4:21pm Jul 30, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting HappyMe
And here my current market-view: Yesterday my HEW-count was broken. Well I did my best and I believe I have a new valid count. For now I see 1,1264 as next-high.... possibly the current double can change into a tripple... we have to look how price behave around that point I think. (See also my blog.) {image}

So, what do you think in terms of HEW count?

What am I saying? I know you have to count the moves as they happen! I was just trying to realize your HEW count by my own current view on Daily!
I better start studying HEW counting

Cheers
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I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,008
  • Jul 30, 2016 5:20pm Jul 30, 2016 5:20pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} You are right...that isn't clear in the picture.... I just copied the screenshot from my blog to here. but I think we can look between 1,1145 to 1,1080.... I personally prefer the 1,1100. But actually you must read it with the following text: "We are now in the last abc of the double...and I think we just saw the wave a. So I expect a move down in the wave b and afterwards a final(?) upmove I expect the wave b around DP (1,1145) or mid-band of PChannel, the round number 1,1100 (is also around the sma200 in the 4H, would be a nice place....

Great work my friend..

I understand that it is an indicator, but in trading you know that the more information to build your case, the better!

I will follow your counting since it is a very interesting indicator and helps very much if you know where your levels are!

Cheers
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,009
  • Edited 6:09pm Jul 30, 2016 5:36pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting baherhosni
{quote} So, what do you think in terms of HEW count? What am I saying? I know you have to count the moves as they happen! I was just trying to realize your HEW count by my own current view on Daily! I better start studying HEW counting Cheers {image}
Mhhh it's a little difficult to answer because that would mean I'm 100% correct with the count I have now...and yes I hope it is

I also have a little concern because the last green double looks a little to impulsive...or?! the a and b that's fine....but afterwards it's impulsive...but I can't make a wave c out of this move for now.....the wave x is normally retracing a little deeper towards the span of wave a and b... So I need to overview this again....
also we are now in a wave b....and wave b's can be long or short. They act like absorbers in times of uncertenties that's also why price is ranging.....like now..... ( eg flat / expanded flat / triangle or even a combination of it....in the current count you see how it can combine those and can make it very complicated). But in the end the major count is the way to go.....

So I don't think we can look so much forward at this time (because we are in a complicated wave b now)....we must be cautious at all times and act if the market is doing something else then we eventually expecting. (But yes I estimated all the possible major levels...and yes they can change....but I also have to say that the bigger the waves the more accurate the levels are).

I have to work this out further somewhere in this weekend...but when I have I let you now. Firstly I want to get a better feeling about the last moves of last Friday.

By the way: It is indeed really interesting, fascinating and astonishing how it can be correct for just a few pips.....IF we could/can identified the wave i and ii correct! Well this last thing can be a problem and is often time-intensive.....and can by frustrating

Cheers!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,010
  • Jul 30, 2016 6:32pm Jul 30, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Mhhh it's a little difficult to answer because that would mean I'm 100% correct with the count I have now...and yes I hope it is I also have a little concern because the last green double looks a little to impulsive...or?! the a and b that's fine....but afterwards it's impulsive...but I can't make a wave c out of this move for now.....the wave x is normally retracing a little deeper towards the span of wave a and b... So I need to overview this again.... also we are now in a wave b....and wave b's can be long or short. They act like absorbers...

About the moves I drew, they were not meant to be direct straight moves at all! It would be amazingly impulsive it were direct as you stated
I also find your other statement very true.. I shouldn't bother myself so much with the future. But I sometimes get carried away lol ..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,011
  • Jul 31, 2016 2:30am Jul 31, 2016 2:30am
Quoting Soroushno
{quote} It wasn't a gap at that time . If it happen when market is close it can cause a gap .This is for last week munich attack . Shooting start at 5:30 . Small effect : {image}
I think a gap could be an error from the platform, can you give me a screenshot from your cell phone of that chart? Please but without Moving Average
  • #1,073,012
  • Jul 31, 2016 3:39am Jul 31, 2016 3:39am
Quoting Allchart
{quote} I think a gap could be an error from the platform, can you give me a screenshot from your cell phone of that chart? Please but without Moving Average
Sure. Also you can find 13/11/2015 . 13-16 November in your platform
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  • #1,073,013
  • Jul 31, 2016 4:10am Jul 31, 2016 4:10am
I think will be difficult know how terrorist affect the market because i don't know exactly how market moves, basically
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  • #1,073,014
  • Jul 31, 2016 5:42am Jul 31, 2016 5:42am
My pre-week analysis indicates a stepping aside on EURUSD until later in the week. The order flow context is rather choppy/unidirectional for the swing trading style/strategy I employ. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,073,015
  • Jul 31, 2016 7:43am Jul 31, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Allchart
I think will be difficult know how terrorist affect the market because i don't know exactly how market moves, basically {image} {image}
Well one way to be sure is wait for next attack which I hope never happen
  • #1,073,016
  • Jul 31, 2016 8:17am Jul 31, 2016 8:17am
Quoting Soroushno
{quote} Well one way to be sure is wait for next attack which I hope never happen

You seem obsessed with those 2 weekends on which we had some very bad news unfortunately.. Many other weekends were safe and happy.. I know you are referring specifically to the Friday of the Turkish events, but that was a very special event..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,017
  • Jul 31, 2016 8:18am Jul 31, 2016 8:18am
Quoting HappyMe
And here my current market-view: Yesterday my HEW-count was broken. Well I did my best and I believe I have a new valid count. For now I see 1,1264 as next-high.... possibly the current double can change into a tripple... we have to look how price behave around that point I think. (See also my blog.) {image}
I looked again to my count..... there was something that I didn't trust my chart.
and yes it looks there was something wrong..... look below for my current count. and I still can't make a 5-wave impulsive move out of it....this would stretch the wave iii to much for now I think!

I think we just finished a double.... the question now is is it a double or can we add another zigzag to make it a triple...!? I don't now.....
At every way we need to fallback to +/- DP (1,1104). for either a wave x or a start of the new wave -c-/-iii-

If I look to the 4H-chart I can see support at the sma200 that could be a bounce...if we fall below it is more likely that we fall back towards the sma89 (1,1050)

If we come above 1,1165 then I would eye on 1,1216 and then to 1,1260 for resistance
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,073,018
  • Jul 31, 2016 9:08am Jul 31, 2016 9:08am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I looked again to my count..... there was something that I didn't trust my chart. and yes it looks there was something wrong..... look below for my current count. and I still can't make a 5-wave impulsive move out of it....this would stretch the wave iii to much for now I think! I think we just finished a double.... the question now is is it a double or can we add another zigzag to make it a triple...!? I don't now..... At every way we need to fallback to +/- DP (1,1104). for either a wave x or a start of the new wave -c-/-iii- If I look...

Very interesting..
I still need a trading break soon!!! "Loose some to win more" --Baher A.
  • #1,073,019
  • Jul 31, 2016 1:55pm Jul 31, 2016 1:55pm
Sorry to interrupt here but ...

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  • #1,073,020
  • Jul 31, 2016 1:59pm Jul 31, 2016 1:59pm
Quoting attilafx
Sorry to interrupt here but ... {image}
That was while FOMC it was coming down then some one sed something and change the trend i think
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