The Really Useless Thread | Page 7103 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,041
  • Jul 27, 2016 2:59pm Jul 27, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Soft shorts stops taken for.the.more hawkish play.That was pretty.much it for the FED knee jerk reaction. A rather dull moves as expected with a nothing new FED.....BOJ for the movers and shakers in currencies.sisse
Agree. BOJ is stirring up quit a lot of volatility in the JPY crosses.
If it can happen and it is bad for you, then it will happen...
  • #142,042
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:26pm Jul 27, 2016 3:26pm
Why S&P is falling and not testing or breaking the highest?
  • #142,043
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:26pm Jul 27, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting sisse
It has been a very quiet July on the iteration front since Euro got stuck in chop zone for most of the month but today is a good time to open the 15th iteration in the set. We have moved from the very basic concepts [now seem to be very clear for those who initially asked a couple of month ago] and now is time to expand the horizons to start exploring some more complex market correlations. +++++Opening table for the 5th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market short term+++++ --> Question 15: Central Banks are on a rampage worldwide...
Gold is for sure stronger after the FED's. Only 1340.xxxx. I am not playing Gold. Only out of interest, I am looking at Commodity Jen pairs. Like NZDJPY and AUDJPY. My burning question is, if gold is strengthening, means dollar is falling. Must also mean a boost for pairs like NZD and AUD. With BOJ wanting to devalue the JEN with a potential stimulus package on friday. I would only assume that pairs like AUDJPY and NZDJPY will become very bullish. I am currently looking for a carry trade that will last me for at least the next 6 months. My pick is NZDJPY for now. I am still learning and this is a lot to tack into consideration. What is you're feelings about this. Just love the fundamentals about trading. I just love learning from you and other great mentors. Thanks a mil.
If it can happen and it is bad for you, then it will happen...
  • #142,044
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:52pm Jul 27, 2016 3:52pm
Quoting CableFx1
{quote} Gold is for sure stronger after the FED's. Only 1340.xxxx. I am not playing Gold. Only out of interest, I am looking at Commodity Jen pairs. Like NZDJPY and AUDJPY. My burning question is, if gold is strengthening, means dollar is falling. Must also mean a boost for pairs like NZD and AUD. With BOJ wanting to devalue the JEN with a potential stimulus package on friday. I would only assume that pairs like AUDJPY and NZDJPY will become very bullish. I am currently looking for a carry trade that will last me for at least the next 6 months....
Here you have attached an correlation table. Gold ( XAUUSD ) is negatively correlated to USD Index only - 61% during the last 300 daily bars. Not very strong correlation.

On same table not visible on attachment I can tell that USDJPY has positive correlation only +46 % to USD Index.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-27 (2).png Size: 133 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,045
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:59pm Jul 27, 2016 3:59pm
Thanks Earleone. Much appreciated.
If it can happen and it is bad for you, then it will happen...
  • #142,046
  • Jul 27, 2016 5:12pm Jul 27, 2016 5:12pm
A bit late but quick updates from today FED.

Quoting sisse
....Inline, relatively muted FED [check] for keep the status quo 2160.xx [check] -> 2185.xx [in play] for the BOJ/BOE combo ...

--> For the actual flows (euro only),

A inline or muted FED [check] will leave us in same chop zone [check] till the BOJ shake the currency board.
--> First, a very dull FOMC. Literally nothing new. Less risk short term, slight concern of global economy for the rest of the year. Everything else check on macro numbers for a hike this year. Simple ride in Equities that will be feed by strong FB earnings after the close and the BOJ upcoming bazooka, chop in Euro (Dollar) and currencies and...

--> ...Gold receiving a decent push from the uneventful FED and ready to receive the BOJ news. No winners so far but longs with a very good hand. BOJ/BOE combo (and potentially even SNB as per this week) with no FED hikes on sights for the rest of the month are all aligned. The only potential party pooper: risk that is also fading away short term....

For those trading live and not already decided (Pharm0r?) final choose your poison time and last tickets available to take or fade the BOJ.

++++Currently GOLD is trading 1338.xx++++

Iteration 15

"All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is"

Update 1 (Elapsed time 0 day 4 hours)

-> LMT BUY 1330.x -> TP1 => 1360.x | TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Earleone

DexterMorgan

Fadhl

ptoftangency

goosebone

manosk

PAStalker

rattyo


-> LMT SELL 1330.x -> TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | | TP3 => 1170.x | STP => 1360.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Grinsakh

nutts

eborn

TuTang

glassblower

Replicant

suntan

Ghandi

hoom

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,047
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:17am Jul 28, 2016 2:17am
london also wants e/u to be higher .... breached an very important level ... waiting for sisse to elaborate ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,048
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:31am Jul 28, 2016 2:31am
Quoting primejarvis
london also wants e/u to be higher .... breached an very important level ... waiting for sisse to elaborate ....
Still no higher high on 4H. My yellow MA is MA 200 EMA and Simple, red MA 100 and blue MA 50. So I will say we are in the top of the channel on 4H. If we get close above the high from the middle of July and above MA 200 it will look a little bit scary to me technical. For now I see this as a good opportunity to add positions when / if it goes out the door again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 40 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,049
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:43am Jul 28, 2016 2:43am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Still no higher high on 4H. My yellow MA is MA 200 EMA and Simple, red MA 100 and blue MA 50. So I will say we are in the top of the channel on 4H. If we get close above the high from the middle of July and above MA 200 it will look a little bit scary to me technical. For now I see this as a good opportunity to add positions when / if it goes out the door again. {image}
i do agree to the channels but right now atleast the e/u pair has being in the short-circuit scenario .... bulls are trying to get the highs before the bazooka of boj as sisse explained earlier a mega correction in process ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,050
  • Jul 28, 2016 2:56am Jul 28, 2016 2:56am
Strong opening range in currencies. Another major round of large moves cooking in the background with the BOJ a main catalyst. More importantly the first and large retail UK bank to start struggling via Brexit announcing thousand of jobs cuts and hundred of branches closing.

Lloyds (LLOY), which ironically was a tax payer 'owned' bank from the 2008 fiasco until just recently, showing some cracks in the banking industry which is the contagion agent for the real economy and spread in Europe.

 

  1. First and more important, after 3 weeks of very bad structural and negative flows under the table in the UK economy, the BOE pretty much has no option but press the nuclear button for the rest of the year so for structural and key fundamental reason:


--> Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from sell to Aggressive Sell

 

  1. On the Euro and for those holding short term swing positions is crunching time after soft stops were taken yesterday with the FED (1.104x) and the short term highs are unprotected after some slightly better numbers across the EZ. It's the usual do or kill (1.114x)until the BOJ (as collateral) as there is no point on holding remaining short term positions for much longer.

  1. On the rest of the board, FB and earnings will carry equities and nothing new on commodities. Here actively looking for positions in the YEN to complete the ZigZag move, aggressively looking for a large second mid term position in Sterling, and on the rest not much to do but patiently wait to see how it pans out so same levels, same trades, same all....


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,051
  • Jul 28, 2016 3:06am Jul 28, 2016 3:06am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i do agree to the channels but right now atleast the e/u pair has being in the short-circuit scenario .... bulls are trying to get the highs before the bazooka of boj as sisse explained earlier a mega correction in process ....
Also USD Index is currently at strong support level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXH4.png Size: 43 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #142,052
  • Jul 28, 2016 3:07am Jul 28, 2016 3:07am
i dont know why but the strength of the bars are showing me a scary move in the euro .... 1.12xx is attracting me a lot ....

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.... just for laughs
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,053
  • Jul 28, 2016 3:12am Jul 28, 2016 3:12am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Also USD Index is currently at strong support level. {image}
from my point of view i just wanted to say all that be very careful while coming in front of a full swing ignited rocket or a falling knife ....

rest time will tell ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,054
  • Jul 28, 2016 3:47am Jul 28, 2016 3:47am
...and that was it for the European session...nothing to see till NY but today more importantly Tokyo.

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} from my point of view i just wanted to say all that be very careful while coming in front of a full swing ignited rocket or a falling knife .... rest time will tell ....
We are trading chop not rocket no falling knife in the Euro.

You maybe getting to close to the market. Watch-out you don't miss the forest for the trees. My 2 cents.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,055
  • Jul 28, 2016 4:12am Jul 28, 2016 4:12am
I can see we are trading a chopzone ... What is your expectations on the boj ... ? What might be the outcome for euro
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,056
  • Jul 28, 2016 6:19am Jul 28, 2016 6:19am
Quoting primejarvis
I can see we are trading a chopzone ... What is your expectations on the boj ... ? What might be the outcome for euro
Boj should provide strong ease at least 20 trl additional QE, BOJ has been somewhat silence in the past 7 months and now its time for them to raise their voice. A BOJ miss could bring summer risk back on the table
  • #142,057
  • Jul 28, 2016 6:46am Jul 28, 2016 6:46am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Boj should provide strong ease at least 20 try additional QE,.... A BOJ miss could bring summer risk back on the table
--> There are bigger things in play than the already more powerful QE expected.

Japan could cross a MAJOR NO TRESPASS line in modern economics and monetary policy. Helicopter money and monetising all, is a line that hasn't been crossed in a very long time (19th century) in major develop economies (a few failed, banana republics and poor countries have done in the last 30 years. Zimbabwe being the latest remarkable disaster) because the results has been CATASTROPHIC !!! in every single case in the history of Economics.

--> If they cross that line is not only a sign of desperation and formal capitulation but will have immense consequences in Japan mid and long term outlook and will spread across the region (and hopefully not a domino effect with other European countries ...hello UK? trying to emulate it in the near term).

--> I personally think this is one of the most important monetary policy decisions in play since the introduction of the first QE in the US back in the financial crisis and in historical and economic terms will make me extremely worry about Japan for the years to come.

I have mentioned a couple of times already. Japan is flirting to be the next big bad thing in the Global economy next year and the idea of helicopter money is opening that door even wider ....

All eyes on the BOJ today as we have a GAME CHANGER in play but some collateral damage is already done in expectations despite today's extend of the announcement.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,058
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:26am Jul 28, 2016 8:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote}y. ====== Iteration 14 ====== ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.098x++++ (Elapsed Time 12 hours 14 days) "Knee jerk reaction or a
People asking a lot how to manage the short term position after the FED so opening final question on this iteration that has been and will be a textbook case for proper trading and it will leave huge lessons to be learnt for those who bother to follow and understand:

===============OPENING Iteration 14c ==============

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++

"Knee jerk reaction or a trend change"

ONLY FOR SHORTS

-> LMT SELL 1.108x [check] -> TP1 => 1.098x [check] | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*


suntan [1st target hit and reverse]

vorex (double TP1) [1st target hit and reverse]

------------- ----------------

PAStalker

pmmebids

Earleone

CommercialB

goosebone

chester123

Decima

Replicant

ptoftangency

IMARICH1

hoom

eborn

gazpacho

primejarvis

fxtrader18

realfan

Grinsakh

workingforex



After the FED and before the BOJ we are back to square one , How would you manage the remaining position?

a. I am not sure. "FED is not going to hike this year I better clear all for a scratch on the reaming positions"
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "FED will hike sooner or later"
c. I am more bearish than ever "Europe is going to hell sell euro, sterling and any European FX" I am 'adding shorts 1.108x -> for double TP2 and double TP3
d. "Euro is going to hold via the carry trade" I changed my mind and I am playing the 'reverso' switching remaining positions to long target 1.118x and 1.128x.

If you don't reply is assume you stay put...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,059
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:31am Jul 28, 2016 8:31am
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "FED will hike sooner or later"

Thank you
  • #142,060
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:40am Jul 28, 2016 8:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} People asking a lot how to manage the short term position after the FED so opening final question on this iteration that has been and will be an textbook case for proper trading and it will leave huge lessons to be learnt for those who bother to follow and understand: ===============OPENING Iteration 14c ============== ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++ "Knee jerk reaction or a trend change" ONLY FOR SHORTS -> LMT SELL 1.108x [check] -> TP1 => 1.098x [check] | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP => 1.118x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* suntan...
I stay put as far as general direction hasn't changed . sure FED lost credibility in the eyes of many speculators...some crowded USD longs were cleared just after the FOMC ...still buying USD against euro and sterling especially seems to be the safest bet at least as far as my plan is concerned , I might get s/o on this trade ...knee jerk extension isn't clear . BoJ later tonight would make things clearer ...

edit : there is US Advance GDP q/q tomorrow that could put a hard stop to this path of most resistance ongoing in EURUSD . forecast is better could be the why FED were bit hawkish !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
8 traders viewing now