Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

Be looking around 100 for possible long. See what BOJ brings

Looking to add to long position soon. Pattern and extension pretty clear on this one.

NC Similar but have some short positions in already at the 60.

Gold

With the headline inflation at 17 year low but quarter CPI as expected the Market has now dropped to 50/50 on RBA rate cut next week. Market expectations for DEC rate hike from FED have dropped by 3% to 47% (slightly more dovish). I think if we see a cut then spreads between Australian and US 10 year will be very tight leading to substantial exiting of capital. If we remain then I think we will get a serious move against NZD as their expectation is to cut.

Current yields on the Australian 10 year is 1.97

Current yield on the US 10 year is 1.57

Michael Blythe, CBA
There was really only one question to answer from today’s CPI numbers: Is inflation low enough to justify market pricing and economist’s expectations for an August rate cut? The answer is a qualified yes. Inflation is low whichever way you cut the numbers. Headline inflation is running at the slowest pace since mid 1999. Underlying inflation is running at a record low. Inflation in the first half of 2016 ran at 1.25% (annualised) or well below the RBA’s 2-3% target band.

While the RBA will probably cut in August, taking the cash rate to a new record low of 1.5%, we suspect that they will do so through gritted teeth. It is arguable that the domestic economy is in need of any additional stimulus at this point. here is a respectable line of argument that further rate cuts may not help. And that cuts may just add fuel to the housing market.

Looking ahead, today’s near consensus CPI outcome was in line with RBA forecasts published in May. So the starting point for the projections published in the August Statement on Monetary Policy (due 5 August) is unchanged. We expect the forecasts to show inflation running below the RBA’s 2-3% target band out to mid 2018 and remaining near the bottom of the band thereafter.

We continue to expect a further RBA rate cut in November, at which point the cash rate would sit at 1.25%.


http://www.businessinsider.com.au/he...-report-2016-7

Only because its there.

B@stards, still riding the free money.....One more up? Then going down, down, down.....​

Once VIX starts rocking, SPX starts dropping.

Batter up.

Getting some offers.

​

Love the music....

​some GU this came up but I only post here for my own sanity

What you don't like the GU thread??

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKCN10816L

'Helicopter money' might weaken currencies more than QE as sky's the limit

Where did you dig that one up from?

Thanks for the link Scott.

Ha ha great one!

Hey squawk some tough moves to crack in microland all over the shop. I'm stepping away now until the Japanese stuff is out of the way.

gl

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/...for-us-economy

here is another one, favorite of my grandfather



REM is so cliché you know, both apparently made a comeback in the video game series FallOut. Since I don't play, I have no idea how I knew that. My brain is a scary place.