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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #3,021
  • Jul 25, 2016 10:56pm Jul 25, 2016 10:56pm
Wow, you do all this 30 seconds before , great stuff for not making any mistakes so far. I was having a profitable run, I was using an ea that automatically places a stop loss, so it saves me time. I would enter like 5 seconds before a news announcement. The combination of getting stopped out prior to the news and even getting it wrong was about 50% because I did lots of research prior. It worked because of the win to loss ratio which im sure youa re aware of.

There was however one problem, in fact it happenned twice for me. At 7am Australia, Sydney time when the news anouncements occured for the RBNZ rates etc, for some reason my stupid broker freezes at that time, because that's when the new trading day starts. So I enterred, it didn't process for like 10 seconds well after the market reacted, hence my stop loss couldnt be enterred. And I was wrong in terms of the market. I lost so much. That pissed me off so much, and my broker didn't find themselves responsible.

The broker was Pepperstone. They have freezes like that twice a day. I'm sharing this because, whilst the strategy may be sound and fit with probabilities, at the end of the day it might be your brokers slow processors that ruin your profit potential. I'm looking to be profitable in both price action and news trading so that I can move to more reliable and larger brokers such as Citi so that this problem doesn't occur.

Do you experience any freezes from your brokers?
HMSR
  • #3,022
  • Jul 26, 2016 3:12am Jul 26, 2016 3:12am
Quoting Hmsr
Wow, you do all this 30 seconds before , great stuff for not making any mistakes so far. I was having a profitable run, I was using an ea that automatically places a stop loss, so it saves me time. I would enter like 5 seconds before a news announcement. The combination of getting stopped out prior to the news and even getting it wrong was about 50% because I did lots of research prior. It worked because of the win to loss ratio which im sure youa re aware of. There was however one problem, in fact it happenned twice for me. At 7am Australia, Sydney...
Yep, I'm feeling ya. I use an EA to place all of my Stop Losses, Take Profits, Sell a portion of my positions and my Break Even. I have everything well planned out before any news trade so when it comes time I just hedge both ways and turn on my auto trade 5 secs before the news. That's what I like about news trading, it takes out any emotional trading mistakes. If you make a mistake it is either bad pre planning or your broker is screwing with you. I have also had the same problem trading NZD news events, FX open would do the same and just freeze during NZD rate decision. I was using Amazing EA for these trades so it didn't affect me as it just didn't trigger the orders. I always thought it was more of a problem with lack of liquidity in the markets at that time as only a few NZD banks are there to provide liquidity at that time. I have stopped trading any NZD news due to the way the markets move at around that time of day. I now use Oanda for my hedge trades but am yet to trade NZD rate decision with them.
'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #3,023
  • Jul 26, 2016 6:17am Jul 26, 2016 6:17am
Yup screw NZ rates, ugh.

Great to know there is someone out there that's been trading the news for longer then I have and better than me. It sets the platform.

One more thing, have your stop losses never activated? I'm speaking in terms of a lack of liquidity. You hear about people in times of those major financial melt downs that their stop-losses never activated and made huge losses.
HMSR
  • #3,024
  • Jul 26, 2016 7:17am Jul 26, 2016 7:17am
Quoting Hmsr
Yup screw NZ rates, ugh. Great to know there is someone out there that's been trading the news for longer then I have and better than me. It sets the platform. One more thing, have your stop losses never activated? I'm speaking in terms of a lack of liquidity. You hear about people in times of those major financial melt downs that their stop-losses never activated and made huge losses.
It definitely does happen, it can happen on large news releases as well as major financial changes. I have had it happen on interest rate decisions where it has gone straight past my stop loss. Mostly because my stop loss was set too tight so when the news hit the spreads were already past my stop loss so it didn't notice it. The last major unexpected financial change I know about was the Swiss Franc removing their peg to the Euro. I don't really think the CHF spreads have ever return back to what they were before this happened. I very much doubt any stop losses were honoured that day but either were take profits so the slippage worked both ways.
'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #3,025
  • Jul 26, 2016 2:16pm Jul 26, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting vvFish
Thursday 11:30 21/7/16 GB Retail Sales (GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release. 25% probability trades. Thursday 14:45 21/7/16 EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank (EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release. 5% probability trades. Thursday 17:30 21/7/16 US Natural Gas Reserves (US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after...
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,026
  • Jul 26, 2016 2:19pm Jul 26, 2016 2:19pm
AU Consumer Price Index
AU CPI
August 2, next week, the RBA will decide on interest rates. Markets assess the probability of its reduction to the level of 69%. The final trigger in this process will be the publication of the indicators used to assess inflationary pressure.
The previous value of the annual CPI was 1.3% at the Bank's target range of 2% -3%. The forecast expects a decline to 1.1% in the second quarter. Also planned reduction in the annual weighted index value from 1.7% to 1.5%.
Quarterly data for the indicators is expected to be 0.4%.
It is expected, in the event that the slightest deviation from the fact that the forecast for a fall - the market will react fairly and promptly. This scenario is optimistic.
All the charm of spoils data delivery delay, because the flow is not regulated in Australia (excluding interest).
By the publication of a sufficiently large data packet that can also enter in the direction of the inconsistency.

GB Advance GDP growth
GB Prelim GFC
Brexit will not be reflected in this indicator, since its effect will follow later: we will present preliminary data GDP growth of the second quarter. So, as the reality of change is expected to influence a negative effect on the economy, expected additional stimulus measures by the Bank of England, it is difficult to estimate the true value of this indicator. They may be valuable for us if will be really bad, that would mean - "It was so bad, and in fact expected worse," we consider this scenario as "optimistic". Accordingly, there is a minimum trigger for sale. Extra caution can not hurt.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,027
  • Jul 27, 2016 3:38am Jul 27, 2016 3:38am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,028
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:39am Jul 27, 2016 9:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,029
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:43am Jul 27, 2016 9:43am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

US interest rate
US Federal Funds Rate

Forecasts of interest rate is not (present only a couple of reviews about its increase, which is not serious in this situation). The market's reaction may be followed in the text protocols. Protocols will be adjusted, as in the past it was a need for further evaluation of the labor market after weak data for May, and now we have got strong data for June.
The tone of some representatives of the Fed in recent weeks seems like a range from neutral to hawkish. Markets still lay 50% chance of a rate increase in December 2016. Recall that the "Fed has passed" a difficult path since the beginning of the year: the expectations of a 4-step rate increase in 2016 up to the expectations of only one rate hike this year.
Fedrez stands between the global anomalies in the form of inflation and Brexit on one side and the positive dynamics of the US economy, on the other hand.
As a result, if you see quotes reaction at a constant rate - open protocols.
Publication of the decision will take place without a press conference Janet Yellen. The next meeting with the FOMC press conference is scheduled for September.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,030
  • Jul 27, 2016 10:08am Jul 27, 2016 10:08am
Quoting vvFish
{image}
  • #3,031
  • Jul 27, 2016 1:32pm Jul 27, 2016 1:32pm
Thursday
17:30
28/7/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,032
  • Jul 28, 2016 1:14am Jul 28, 2016 1:14am
Many trader only wait for a news to open a trade. I like news trading because I can get important information through trading news. News trading is not easy trading but if trader know how to trade in news time then they have huge chance to earn money very quickly.
  • #3,033
  • Edited Jul 29, 2016 3:12am Jul 28, 2016 3:05pm | Edited Jul 29, 2016 3:12am
Friday
15:30
29/7/16
1 new comments
US Preliminary GDP HOT!
(US Advance GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The first issue of the preliminary view of the economy figures for the second quarter of 2016 carries additional risks of volume indicators, submitted for publication, this time GDP is not alone:
US GDP Annualized (Q / Q) 2.5%
US Employment Cost Index SA (Q / Q) 0.6%
US GDP Price Index (Q / Q) 1.9%
US PCE Core (Q / Q) 1.7%
US Personal Consumption (Q / Q) 4.4%
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,034
  • Jul 29, 2016 7:38am Jul 29, 2016 7:38am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_41.png Size: 38 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,035
  • Jul 29, 2016 7:43am Jul 29, 2016 7:43am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,036
  • Jul 29, 2016 7:45am Jul 29, 2016 7:45am
its really ... Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

Thx vvFish.. need more practice

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-29072016.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #3,037
  • Jul 29, 2016 7:56am Jul 29, 2016 7:56am
Quoting keygen81
its really ... Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal... Thx vvFish.. need more practice {image}
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,038
  • Jul 29, 2016 9:33am Jul 29, 2016 9:33am
Quoting vvFish
{image}
. Good Wekend
  • #3,039
  • Jul 29, 2016 10:37am Jul 29, 2016 10:37am
[цитата = fibo38; 9057299] {цитата} . Хороший Wekend [/ цитата]
Thank you
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,040
  • Jul 29, 2016 4:46pm Jul 29, 2016 4:46pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

TOP 7 July events and the Bank of England next week.

I do not remember such a hot summer, so for a long time (the past, the right was similar, but ...) and it continues! We consider the top events of July 7, try to understand what we can expect in August, and it seems a lot: the publication of Non-Farm fresh and rate decision the RBA next week. The Bank of England! The Bank of England meets on August 4, Thursday!

The last week of the seventh month.

With the RBA's not so clear after the publication ofinflation.

The inflation rate remains the same for weighted indicators: 1.7% vs. 1.5% forecast for the annual values. Standard CPI at 1.0% vs. forecasted 1.1% and the previous 1.3% to an annual value. Good or bad before the meeting of the RBA?

In terms of trade news - well, as a transparent calculation of "lower inflation, higher probability of a rate cut" made blurred. Of Citi, for example, has revised its forecasts change the RBA rate from August to November.

Now we see the vast majority of forecasts for the meeting of August 2: -0.25% rate (from 1.75% to 1.5%). The change in inflation expectations will gradually interfere with the formation of homogeneous forecasts that lead to their inconsistency and increased likelihood of volatility at the time of meetings of the Bank.

Another representative of the Bank of England gives up before the meeting on Thursday.

Martin Weale, who last week questioned in relation to the additional easing of monetary policy of the Bank of England changed their vision after the publication of pessimistic PMI manufacturing and service sectors of the indicators this week. Now it is for the reduction of "a flock of pigeons" enriched his person.
Fortunately BA verdict on interest rates as early as this Thursday - enough for courtship some markets

Bank of Japan: cliff-Virtue, want to confuse.

Interesting and epic market behavior on the USDJPY on Wednesday morning (July 27).
The message of the speech, Abe, the markets are planning to receive information about additional incentives for the Japanese economy.
Attached Image

Abe into the present stimulus package next week (on the part of the Government of Japan).
Attached Image

As a result, the Bank of Japan (headed by Kuroda), as always, all lit, and the measures taken, and by publication time: minor mitigation measures taken by market estimates. The interest rate unchanged. Market expectations are not justified.
Attached Image

FOMC waits.

FOMC expected to leave interest rates at 0.5% for the upper range. And, if we wrote before the publication of that important protocols than decision (as they should happen reassessment of labor market indicators), that is what happened: the labor market, the Committee assessed the dynamics and positive. Remain traditional comments on inflation to the targeted level of missing Fedreza. The economic outlook marked by optimism. The Fed will continue to monitor the global variables.

Friday's data on GDP growth for the second quarter appears to have removed expectations of growth rates further, as the fact was significantly below forecast expectations: 1.2% instead of 2.5%.

TOP 7 July events.

7. kidok Bank of Japan

The last two weeks of the month, Japan pledged to lose "money from a helicopter", but in fact, this has not happened. The interest rate and QE program unchanged. The regulator used only minor stimulation methods that disappointed markets.
By the way, about Brexit - such an act, another allusion to the ex post facto global event, it may not be all that bad, maybe just all want to skip ahead of the British Queen (thick hint of priority actions of the Bank of England, which has not yet taken place).

6. Reduced UK credit ratings

S & P and Fitch lowered the country's rating from "AAA" to "AA". Moody's just revised its outlook from "stable" to "negative." (We included this event in the rating on purpose, though in fact, it happened at the end of June, but the impact is more in July, it was a transition week).

5. unscheduled ANOVA published by Markit PMI indicators

Markit volunteered to help the markets as a conductor, as a way after Brexit was quite vague and uncertain, and especially business sentiment.
IHS Markit went to meet quite an extraordinary step: key data indicators PMI: Manufacturing, Construction and Service were published early unscheduled. The data used to generate the index on the basis of 70% completeness of survey respondents.

4. The Bank of England held the first meeting after Brexit

Gathered for the first time after Brexit, the Bank confirmed earlier statements made by the public Mark Carney: lowering the interest rate to be in August. Interest rate expectations despite the confusion, in July, has been preserved.

3. New Pr emer UK minister appointed

Theresa May appointed the new Prime Minister of Great Britain on July 13th. Previously it was assumed that the new head of the country we will see in September, but apparently under the pressure of the situation decided to issue much faster.
This factor can not but rejoice, because it hints at a continuation of the dynamics of what is happening fast.

2. Non-Farm payr olls rehabilitated

If in June at the market was shocked by the May data Non-Farm Employment Change (38K vs. forecasted growth of 159K), the latest data NFP has already proved to be manna from heaven: 287K against expectations of 175K. This fact came twice in the Fed releases minutes and returned to the waiting forward to increase the Fed's interest rates this year.
By the way, Non-Farm the new issue will be held next week.

1. Reza rvny Bank of New Zealand publishes economic forecasts unscheduled report.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its economic prospects unscheduled update, published in July, comes to the conclusion that it is likely further easing of monetary policy is needed. The markets believe that in early August the Bank's interest rate will be reduced from 2.25% to 2.00%.

Trends for August.


August will be marked by a number of important statements by the central bank:

- The Bank of England should cut the interest rate;

- Reduction is also expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia;

- RB New Zealand in the same company after the publication of the economic report.
a fresh report on the US labor market (Non-Farm Employment Change) will be published.

New Zealand will also present its report on employment on a quarterly basis. Also on the basis of quarterly reports will be presented statistics on retail sales NZ.

In addition to the monetary decisions of the Bank of England, will also present quarterly inflation report.

The key trends inlet month are:

- Probably the policy easing by the RBA

- Possibly easing by the Bank of England

- Probably the policy easing by the RBNZ

- Expectations of the Fed raising interest rates and flexible enough to be changed at the slightest opportunities
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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