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XAUUSD Week 30 Jul 25 to 29:

Gold has been trading below 1332.75 for several days and also below its 10EMA.
best thing to do is wait till it trade above the 10EMA on day chart.

Well, I have been here trading with TMS 5-Method for almost 6 years. Here is my short story -

About TMS and me...

I have been trading the stock market since mid-80s. In 2007, I started trading the spot forex market after some years of study and research. I started with trading the Cowabunga system which uses the RSI, Stochastics, MACd and two moving averages. In 2011, I started to get active in FF in X-man thread which is also based on TMS 5-Method. The trading in the fast lane learning from LE1’s M15 thread, also based on TMS 5-Method. With TMS 5-Method, I dropped the Stochastics and the MACD. But stick on using the RSI with moving average applied to the RSI data creating what I known as the Fozzy-RSI and this is what the Traders Dynamic Index or TDI actually is.
After spending time forward testing and live trading with pivots levels, fibonacci levels, harmonics wave patterns, volatility bands, etc. I came back to the plain and simple 5-Method. Just one TDI or Fozzy-RSI, Average Price Bar APB or HeikenAshi HA, and the 5-EMA Typical Price, Shift+3. This is what I mean by Keep It Simple with the 5-Method as the core trading method. It has been almost 5 years and I have not move away from TMS 5-Method while I see some members either jump from system to system or created several new systems in the same short 5 years period.

The secret is in Post#647 and how we interpret that post on our charts. Price moves in swings, each swing create a new support and resistance level. We have to look at the price action and the swings levels and determine if that swing level will be a support and resistance. Every price level ‘50’ and ‘00’ can be also be a support and resistance. We also pay attention to the higher timeframe OHLC. For example, the previous Day OHLC, previous Week OHLC and previous Month OHLC. These OHLC are also natural support and resistance in the lower timeframes. We zoom out of our chart and see the bigger picture if there were past price swings around the same current levels which then will make the support and resistance of significance and require more attention.

Knowing to read price action will also help us identify if the market is in or near a consolidation area. We avoid trading when price is in consolidation and wait for breakout opportunity. In other situations, we avoid trading into consolidation area and know when to exit our trade with small profits or worst case we take some small losses.

The next most important thing to succeed in trading is the money management strategy and our risk appetite. Big E traded with huge risk of 15% to 30% based on an account deposit of S$10k. You have to decide if you can trade with the huge risk. I don’t trade with that kind of high risk. I am used to taking small risk trades with 1% to 2% maximum risk per currency pair I trade. I prefer to scale-in and scale-out of trades using Multiple Entries and Multiple Exits using a basket trade management. I monitor 16 currency pairs in my watchlist and would trade any 5 pairs at any one time. This way, I can spread out my overall risk of total 10% into 5 different traded pair. This way, I can have losing some trades but seldom losing basket of trades in a chosen trading cycle of 20 trading days. On an average I have about 65% win rate, approximately 3 wins and 2 losses for 5 traded pairs. There are times when I have 5 losing baskets but my drawdown is never more that 20%. I keep my cut loss level at 10% drawdown so that I can easier recover from that 10% drawdown.

To succeed, we must accept some drawdown in our trading system. What is more important is our ability to recover from the drawdown. Account drawdown caused loss in confidence, emotional stress, etc. and this is the biggest mental challenge most traders face. It is not easy to overcome this, but with more trading experience and better understanding of money management systems, we as traders need to work hard and focus more in the trading tasks. These will help traders become better traders when they know their trading tasks well and not let the trade results affect our performance.

TMS 5-Method is a trend following trading methodology. It shall remain and last because there is a trend in every timeframe we see on our charts.

Good trend trading folks,

Next week, I am looking at EURNZD and GBPNZD for possible 4H swing trades and possible turn the swing trades into position trades which can run into 2 ~ 3 weeks.

Anyone done your Big Picture Plan yet? Want to share and discuss them here.

No rush on Monday, sit back, let the market open and see what NY open in in few hours will be like, then wait till London open on Monday.
G20 meeting into its 2nd day today and doesn't sound like anything major will come out of it except all the talk about how Brexit will impact on the world economy.

Hi Emmanuel, did you found time to look at my trades?

Sir are you looking for possible sell trade opportunity in the direction of weekly 10ema?

I can see that GN is facing lots of resistance from weekly chart.

H4 still inside WRB for both these pairs.

Very very good post, thank you for sharing your experience and TMS history, I have really learnt a lot from this precious thread.

the support and resistance I see on weekly are only the previous weeks OHLC with plenty of room to the 10EMA above the current price action.

on the daily, the price rebounded from the 2013 low with a nice BUEB and the current price action is above its 10EMA. The TDI is around the 50-level.

on the H4, the TDI VB had narrowed in the past 2 weeks. the trade opportunity is when the TDI VB is expanding but you only know when there is price action which is the 'leading indicator'.

4H swing can be either way this week. check the 52-weeks average trading range. have a Plan A and a Plan B.

a WRB as you mention, you can trade inside the WRN High-Low or you be patient and wait for the breakout of the WRB. but most often the breakout happen so fast and you will miss the huge breakout candle, so we get in before the breakout.

Trade Well.

hi Rims,

yes, I did very briefly and I tried to look at your trades and your trading hours.
but your chart's zoom size and colours make it difficult for my eyes to see the details. so I look at your trade summary report.
I think your approach using the H4 and D1 as the direction is good when you trade M15 and H1.
Based on your trading hours, you need to pay attention to the overlap hours of the London session with the NY session when you have trades open during the London session. For H1 and M15 trades, I would normally closed them before NY open and when there is news/data release during the NY morning session. Reason is the Sl for H1 and M15 trades are usually quite small and will not survive the volatility when the market reacts to the news/data release.
The average duration for H1 and M15 trades taken during the London first half session should be 3 hours, but I see you have trade duration longer than that and smaller number of pips. This tell something about the entry and the exit trade management. If you check the H1 ATR, you should have an idea how many H1 candles to be when you trade would hit its planned TP with RR 1:1. Anything more than 3 H1 candle is indicative that the volatility is not going your way. The H1 Price Action Channel set to 5SSMA high-low is a good trading tool to help us see visually when the price is going and can be use to manage our trades.

this is the only comment I have and hope this will help.

regards,

Hi All

Emmanuel from my analysis i agree re EURNZD, GBPNZD, also NZDUSD room to move to downside till ~BRN 6900 or lower support of ~6700.

For visual purposes i have include two charts- USDCAD & EURJPY.
USDCAD- Monthly Resistance above- 1.316 then last week high ~1.318, Patience to buy H4 dips i.e. H4 pullback to BRN ~ 1.31 before bullish run continues. On H4 look for clumps of 3 around support & PA to confirm swing change

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURJPY- Daily- MC then IB formed inside. Watch PA & TDI. Above last weeks high = room upside to ~ 121 or PA room to re-test support of 114.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Feel free to comment and enjoy your week.

hi caah can you share your indicator that tells the day of the week?tia

Please find enclosed. Save in normal indicator folder>drag to chart. From inputs tab modify Text 1 to 5 - days of week to suit your style.

USDCAD - I am in buy mode.
EURJPY - no trade now. I have USDJPY and AUDJPY buy mode.

GBPUSD D1 chart, price in contraction, so there is opportunity for expansion into volatility. Wait for the right moment when price enters into buy/sell zone.

Hi Folks

I got a beginer Question. If i trade in H4 its better to look in D1 or W1 for the greater Trend?

Thx 4 Avice

nice entry EM

there are 6 H4 candles in one D1, so it may not be so easy to pick the D1 'trend'.

Thx EM

Nice Picture. I have understand.

TMS is the 5-Method, so we use the 5EMA, Typical Price, Shift+3.

5EMA is to show the direction Post#261.

therefore we look at the Weekly chart at the beginning of the trading week and also at the start of a new day to see the direction.



but how do we detect sideways market type early?

Hi Emmanuel,

I'd really appreciate if you can tell me how do you decide that trend is up or down on daily or weekly? Do you confirm it by looking at PA above or below 5 EMA for up or down trend respectively? Or you decide it by TDI cross on particular time frame?
Looking forward for your reply and guidance.

Thanks

Remember we are trading TMS 5-Method.
one of the 3 components we use is the 5EMA, Typical Price, Shift+3. This 5EMa is use to define the direction or "trend" on the chart timeframe we trade.
If we trade H4, we also look at what the higher timeframe direction / or "trend" is

Big E post#647 says:
Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term...

so I check the W1 and the D1.

You can place 3 charts with the same TMS template like what I show below.



Look at the vertical line on the W1 chart, that vertical line is the same where I have on the D1 and H4.
can you see comparing the 3 charts - what is trend following and what is counter trend on D1 and H4?

Use the W1 as the Primary (or Dominant) trend like this picture below.