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95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

  • #81
  • Jul 13, 2016 1:43pm Jul 13, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting merquise
{quote} See, now you're getting there Also, USD JPY and other JPY pairs were an excellent trade on the 11th and 12th of this months. Now you have to ask yourself why was it that those two days presented excellent trading opportunities. Analyze that and you might find more pieces of a puzzle. Just on those two days you could have made a killing and not trade till the end of a month.
yeah maybe i could, but did you ?
  • #82
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:16pm Jul 13, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} yeah maybe i could, but did you ?
I did ok
  • #83
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:04pm Jul 13, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting Anusragger
{quote}This is possible with every timeframe because it doesnt matter. ​
ı bet it wont you bet it will
feel free to release results and make me shame

you are missing a very simple rulae/nature of market

this can only be traded with tick chart...! think
  • #84
  • Jul 17, 2016 5:33pm Jul 17, 2016 5:33pm
What a great thread!!

I've been thinking about how to apply the ideas and concepts raised in this thread. I think it's obvious that we can make use of probability from a given current candle.

Some of the q's I have are?
While trading a 1 hour chart and a new candle opens;
- After 5 Minutes if the candle is green(up) what is the probability that the price will continue to increase and finish higher than the current price (i.e. 5 minutes into the current 1 hour candle)?
- Again if trading a 1 hour chart, what is the % probability that the low of the chart occurs within the first 10 minutes if the candle finishes green (up)?


Obviously the % probability would be obtained from historical 1 hour charts.

I love the concept of trading the direction based upon the current candle. One question I have is trying to determine the direction of the current candle. Use the first tick of that hour? Wait 1 minute, 2 minutes 5 minutes etc?

Having read stats like a candle can be broken up into 25% up wick, 50% candle body and 25% low wick etc (although I don't know how often this occurs as a %.

When I have time I may try to do some back testing and work out Answers to my own questions, however lets see what your thoughts are??

Cheers Mate.
  • #85
  • Jul 17, 2016 5:41pm Jul 17, 2016 5:41pm
Quoting timster
What a great thread!! I've been thinking about how to apply the ideas and concepts raised in this thread. I think it's obvious that we can make use of probability from a given current candle. Some of the q's I have are? While trading a 1 hour chart and a new candle opens; - After 5 Minutes if the candle is green(up) what is the probability that the price will continue to increase and finish higher than the current price (i.e. 5 minutes into the current 1 hour candle)? - Again if trading a 1 hour chart, what is the % probability that the low of the...
The only certainty in the market is: price goes up and down.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #86
  • Jul 17, 2016 5:43pm Jul 17, 2016 5:43pm
of course, however surely we can make use of probability based upon historical data? It's not a certainty, but a probability (which could turn into your edge)?
  • #87
  • Jul 17, 2016 6:14pm Jul 17, 2016 6:14pm
Quoting timster
of course, however surely we can make use of probability based upon historical data? It's not a certainty, but a probability (which could turn into your edge)?
Yes.
It is done.
My methods are based on statistics.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #88
  • Jul 17, 2016 6:31pm Jul 17, 2016 6:31pm
TooSlow - would you like to share some of you methods which you base upon probabilities?
  • #89
  • Edited 7:29pm Jul 17, 2016 6:35pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting timster
TooSlow - would you like to share some of you methods which you base upon probabilities?
I do on my threads.
Please understand there is a difference between statistics and probabilities.

statistics
1: a branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data
2: a collection of quantitative data

probability

  1. : the chance that something will happen
  2. : something that has a chance of happening
  3. : a measure of how often a particular event will happen if something (such as tossing a coin) is done repeatedly

Statistics = the past.
Probability = the future.

My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #90
  • Jul 17, 2016 6:49pm Jul 17, 2016 6:49pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} I do on my threads.
Great I'll check out your threads.
  • #91
  • Jul 21, 2016 5:10am Jul 21, 2016 5:10am
The title of this thread is pretty deep, really. I'd say the answer is a helluva lot closer to 100%. I mean, how often do you find a perfect doji on a daily chart? Beggars belief!!!
  • #92
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:16am Jul 21, 2016 9:16am
Quoting Carllos
I think TRO (The Rumpled One) built a strategy around this long time ago. From what i remember he just used statistics to get an edge.
yep and he is not rich ...check him out on youtube .
  • #93
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:39am Jul 21, 2016 9:39am
Thank you for this post.
Opening trades is easy, closing is harder to me.

It all comes down to trade management.

I used to trade pivots like this. Buy/sell if price crosses pivot point.

Knowing when to stop will also increase the odds of successful trades.
  • #94
  • Jul 23, 2016 8:01am Jul 23, 2016 8:01am
These 2 methods are based on the theory that the price will move away from any given reference point.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FIRSTSTRIKE-1.pdf   504 KB | 3,178 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Vegas 1 Hour Tunnel Method.pdf   47 KB | 1,497 downloads


The first one has a static reference point - the weekly open.
The second is with a dynamic reference point - ema tunnel.

I would appreciate relevant opinions on both methods.

What do you guys think?
  • #95
  • Jul 23, 2016 8:05am Jul 23, 2016 8:05am
Why not built EA with this system with TP 1 pips only?
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
  • #96
  • Jul 23, 2016 9:13am Jul 23, 2016 9:13am
Many of you may not accept the fact, the result of any entry weather random or based on any edge is independent of any indicator. It is all left to the market to decide.The trader only active participation after entry is how and when to exit the trade....................

So you don't need any addition to the entry based on the sole price,What you need is just an exit plan.Formulate one and you are done.
atheer1
  • #97
  • Jul 26, 2016 9:15am Jul 26, 2016 9:15am
Quoting strbac
"95% of the time Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price. Within this truth lies the pot of gold." This statement has changed the way I look at the markets and charts forever. When I first read this it was the greatest enlightenment I ever had about trading. Most people do not see the enormous edge in this statement. How can we apply this to actual trading? The above statement is equivalent to: Price will always move away from any given reference point. Price will...

HEy sir!
Can you upload here template and indicators ? It looks cool!
  • #98
  • Sep 14, 2016 10:23am Sep 14, 2016 10:23am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} I've done alot of experiments (backtested EA's) with such systems, and I can tell you straight away - In the long run, the expectancy per trade for this strategy will fluctuate between -1 and 0 ! The strategy does indeed provide very small edge, but it cannot overcome the cost ot trading (spreads+commisions+slippage). In theory, if the cost of trading was 0, this system will generate consistent profits. But, under real market conditions, this system will lose in the long run (just like all other "systems" from this type)!
did you tried testing First-Pullback strategies?
example1: fastMA cross slowMA above, wait for pullback and when price is below fastMA - open Buy
example2: price touch Donchian low - wait for pullback to middle Donchian and here open Sell
...
  • #99
  • Jan 31, 2018 11:57pm Jan 31, 2018 11:57pm
@CrucialPoint just 2 days back i saw ur post.and spend time on charts.
95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price
thanks for this its working amazingly great
IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
  • #100
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:32am Feb 1, 2018 2:32am
i added some filter
less signals but quality exit at open of signal candal as tgt currently buy signal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
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