95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

@squawk is right you know. First, no mechanical system will ever beat discretionary system. Second, yes, you need to know when to trade and when not to trade. Third, you need to trade with the trend. That's your 3rd edge

Couldn't agree more merquise with your points and with the discretionary trading for levels, price, price action but attached to that is a trading model or rules set to get you in and out. My experience is you really have to be centered around a trading model so you don't lose your bearing whiles in a trade or trading.

How would you trade this?
How will you avoid it?
How would you enter/exit?

One idea:
@ daily open place 1 long & 1 short
Both SL @ daily body range
Both TP @ daily body range + 1 daily wick range

Edge: 1x daily wick

Another idea:
2 reference points: 1 monthly or weekly
Only long above monthly or weekly open

@ daily open place long order with
SL @ daily body range
TP @ daily body range + 1 daily wick range

Well you want me to teach you how to trade here in this forum. I'm not sure my English is enough for that. But there is certain rules that I'm sure you read all over the place. 1. Never predict the market 2. Cut your losses fast and keep your winners run 3. Never change your strategy (if strategy is working). So what all that's means for you?! 1. You don't know were the market is going so there's no reason to believe that you can predict the market. In the forex no place for predicters. They always lose. If you want to predict, so go to casino. 2. Cut your losses fast and keep winners run that's mean you must to put border in your trades and TP must be a few times bigger then SL. On top of that you need to know how much money you want to put in the risk. Never put all your money in to the one trade. 3. If your strategy is working in 30% of the time so with right MM you can bee always in profit. So there is no way you need to change your strategy. 4. In the end I have to tell you there is no way to not be a ptofitble trader. You just need to stick to the plan. And my opinion, never trust indicators, they always lies. Good luck!!!

How about this way:



What do you think?

Thanks FxBreath.

Yeah sqawk is so right uh !! a 4th edge might be to trade only with a stop loss right ? and the 5th, only to cut your losers and let your winners run uh ? I bet there are many more edges needed to get that pot of gold.

no one knows my friend, or maybe in hindsight.

This method is not magic, it is only a way to look at the oldest edge in the book and that is the trend. The opening price principle was coined by a bankrupt Larry Pesavento a so called trading tutor. The same guy that took an idea from Gartley and corrupted it so badly it fails to work more often than not. Forget it being anything but a way to look at a trend. Simply ask the question is the market going up or down, then mark the open for the day on the chart.

In an uptrend, look to buy the open.
In a down trend look to sell the open

You can use yesterdays low as your stop buying or yesterday high when selling

Taking the idea further you can use it to look at the daily chart for market reversal, if todays close is lower than the open look at the great signals you get. Or look what happens when market close goes below the open. Now, instead of a statement like 95% of the time the market moves away from the open which gives you zero edge. Think how useful it is when you want to find intraday direction. First look at the daily chart, are we up or down. Then ask the question is their a daily reversal possible, this gives you the chance to get into the start of a swing almost at the turn. Maybe some one can make an indicator that will make an arrow and an alert when the first candle opens or closes below the open when the last X bars have been higher opens or lower opens.

http://screencast.com/t/J54AE9VQkyB

hey strbac, how do you choose the range of the 2 lines around the ref pt ?

To make it really clear, we need 2 bigher closesars in the same direction up or down it does not matter, up is 2 higher closes down is 2 lower closes. The qualifier bar is the one where the close is below or above the open.


http://screencast.com/t/cdooti6Lo

in other words :
2 green bars + one red bar = sell (vice versa for buy ).do you see an edge in that ?
what about sl and tp ?
Thanks.

That is the BUY ZONE strategy exactly.

It's of great interest to see how you guys are trying to get an obtain an edge by going in circles with the same questions, when trading prices just requires focus and the understanding of numbers going up and numbers going down-- and emphasizing just that. Not by forming something as vacuous as constantly entering an order on opening price to accept all the random bs etc. Are you guys f*cking serious?
Anyway, I'll make this as simple as can be and as short as possible.
But since you are all too blind to understand business and propositions, I'll give you a small introductory course--and fyi, was not planning on posting, so this will be the only post I do in this forum. I won't reply to messages or comments. If you're still lost, I can't do anything, sorry.

So for those who are looking quite flummoxed with CP's statement, this one is for you.

Again, I do recommend, you guys start doing a little bit of self understanding before even jumping in markets with the little information you will obtain, otherwise, not only is your money someone else's, but the struggle through life will always constantly be there, since from reading these responses, you all seem curious, but very hard headed with perspectives about how things should be done. Reality is a little different.
I won't exactly make this in regards to markets, so you can put your thinking caps on and try the best you could to imagine & apply it.

Say you have a manufacturer you're dealing with, and you're going to have to negotiate prices, so you phone them.
Here's the negotiation process:
There's an anchored price for a shoe, in this example, imagine 1 USD

You want a better bargain, right? Find points of leverage, angles and all the fun stuff.
What do you do--there's hardly any rigid rules, because you'll know a lot through experience.
Anyway here's how it goes:

"I'll take your shoe for 20% off", you haggle on the phone.
But the guy doesn't even budge or pause at that price, and he wants to sell at 130% immediately...
What do you do?
Are you a taker?

If you're answer is somewhere along the lines with "well, f*ck that guy." Walk out and leave and find other opportunities; then I don't know how you cannot have moderate success in markets.
If you're answer is what do I do... how convinced is the guy... economics, this variable... this or that... overthinking... or feeling under duress.
Please, for your own sake-- GTFO

If you know business you'll understand very well what to do.
What to look for.
And what to expect.
There's really no logic, just action. This is why it's not able to be back tested. You don't know what you get with the territory.
Just imagine that-- god giving man the free path to survive through hardships with you guys at the forefront of research by unlocking the codes through back testing for an edge or a pattern in order to obtain permanent success and psychological comfort.
Wtf do you guys think this is? Utopia. It's business. You compete at the highest levels, or well, get eaten.
I can have closed doors tomorrow.
But obviously, there's a comfort when it comes to knowing what to do.

It's really no different from picking out a trend--but of course, you'd have to know the levels for this business. Not your support or resistance or whatever gunk you're imagining.
If you don't, just sell shoes--there's really no shame in it, in fact you'll have backbone. Work is work, and trading is a dirty business anyway.
One of the best quotes I received in trading-- probably something I read, since I totally forgot the actual quote and can't find it online.

When you buy your painting... would you buy it again?

Here's a chart of the action I had with this pair. I've had a wonderful month, so nothing like giving out to the community.
Again, you won't trade like me, because it isn't a system where it's exactly mechanical, but I somehow caught a top, following the impediment to all the civilian accounts, and understood with great accuracy what I should be doing. How could I have known?
It's really just circumstance calls for action.

I do recommend getting some real world experience before trying this at home--otherwise it just leads down a path of destruction.
Focus on sharpening your tools beyond anything, even my word.

Good fortunes~

Great post

See, now you're getting there Also, USD JPY and other JPY pairs were an excellent trade on the 11th and 12th of this months. Now you have to ask yourself why was it that those two days presented excellent trading opportunities. Analyze that and you might find more pieces of a puzzle.

Just on those two days you could have made a killing and not trade till the end of a month.

1-this is possible only with tick chart
2-the cost for retail trader is far away from trading tick chart
3-if you trade tihs logic even with 1min chart you will be busted in couple of hours or earlier

discuss time machine,there is more edge

This is possible with every timeframe because it doesnt matter.
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