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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,941
  • Edited 12:41pm Jul 21, 2016 12:27pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Are you a carry trader? I dislike the idea of leaving a floating position open for too long (doesn't matter if in profit or loss). Okay the pos swaps are a nice psychological bonus but closing a position makes me sleep better at night.
I will not say that I am a carry trader, more swing trader. But I do take carry trades for exotics ( like usd/rub , usd/mxn, eur/try eur/zar etc. with low leverage ) Also I prefer to take trades in the direction with positive swaps for other instruments and can then hold position for long long time if it is with my medium/ Long term outlook. If big negative swap I try to come in during the move or just before and quick out. For majors like eurusd gbpusd I dont think so much about it since swap dont add up much in either direction. Off course nice when it adds up positive there too. With low leveraged carry trades I do not sleep bad at nigth and good is that since trades can be open from a month to a year or even possible longer
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,942
  • Jul 21, 2016 12:30pm Jul 21, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} In order for a trend to start, the first move MUST ALWAYS extend the current range distribution by a large margin to find a fresh distribution area (a new rage) in which can start oscillating up and down (always extending the range on the side of the new trend). ..... sisse
this is what I 110% agree to ..... baby steps getting a little bigger ....

needed some more intense stuff ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #141,943
  • Jul 21, 2016 1:21pm Jul 21, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting hoom
...so one can understand the core of the "how", "when" , "why" etc... in term of trading .
Well before we move into the core of the question, let me just use a cherry picked chart in order to have the main concepts in line before going further.

*** For those new lurkers around this is not a trading system, neither about indicators or anything. The bunch of indicators and drawings are just to explain 3 main concepts:

-> The distribution of a price range
-> The expansion of a normal distribution when a market is trending, neutral and changing direction.
-> The extension/compression of price in that distribution

I added a bunch of indicators for the sake of normalising the chart (on purpose i left the instrument hidden) and make it easier to understand in term of price oscillations and distribution channels as I think most if not all traders around will understand this view.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gyezmpl.png Size: 289 KB


Chart is very simple to understand but have all key concepts.

--> I handpicked an established uptrend to start with and make it easier to grasp the basic concepts.
--> Obviously in an uptrend, waves/legs/etc extend price from the last highs while the opposite side make shallower pullbacks making the ebb and flow of a move (a-> b->c->d etc etc)...nothing new there but
--> Pay attention on the std break of the channel as this is the point we are trying to discuss. Price always move beyond the current STD channel of the instrument BEFORE price breaking above highs while on the pullbacks it never really break below the channel (which is pretty obvious why in an uptrend).

 

  1. As you can clearly deduce from the after the fact chart, the ones who are trading in the correct direction (or with the trend if you wish) will pretty much take any oscillation / pullback (any indicator will do the same) without having to do much effort neither risk or suffering for drawdown.

  1. Even the worst osculation [case G] will give plenty of time to chicken out [for those trading indicators] and prolly a extra close look for those trading pure price but will have a minimum impact TA WISE only as the last swing low will only be barely breached but not broken ...

  1. More importantly for this discussion and as you can see the ones fading the waves up both the naive ones on the expansion of the distribution and the ones fading (or the so call 'smart ass scalpers' or whatever they call) the uptrend price extensions will get burn over and over with scatters wins until one of the extensions finally blow a few handles up and they will get wiped out ....

To wrap it up, the whole point of this chart is introducing the key concepts only. For those interested in exploring further on strictly TA sense:

-> What do you think is the normal distribution in a neutral range?
-> What do you think happens first when a trend is about to change?
-> Can you spot and put your trading system (despite TF and tools) your last trades you caught or got caught in a change of trend in the context of a normal distribution and price expansion/compression? What went wrong/right? ...

I hope it helps to trigger some ideas to some ...I'll try to keep discussing this when we wrap up the iterations and with live examples ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,944
  • Jul 21, 2016 1:23pm Jul 21, 2016 1:23pm
c. topping up for TP2 x2

FTSE looks really heavy and exhausted, it seems at the top of its short term range at 67xx. However, sitting on my hands here as I think it can still grind the highs until FED on wenesday
  • #141,945
  • Jul 21, 2016 2:11pm Jul 21, 2016 2:11pm
The short term trend change wipes out soft hands almost every time
  • #141,946
  • Jul 21, 2016 7:55pm Jul 21, 2016 7:55pm
I am trying to contribute to the thread, this is my what I am looking at: EU M5
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #141,947
  • Jul 21, 2016 7:58pm Jul 21, 2016 7:58pm
@hoom,

would like to see this play out to short GBP, if you're familiar with norm- then you'll see it's already been achieved by the bulls (to the pip- lends credibility to the validity). Us mofu'ers would be looking for the circled target at the top- which also aligns with several other indies as you can see.

Not in a trade, as I believe buying is obviously against the fundamental direction, however; a pull back after target is normal for us and expected- therefor I have my preferred entry.

Yes 600 pips away, but at an average of 2-4 trades a month, I have no issues waiting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #141,948
  • Jul 21, 2016 8:17pm Jul 21, 2016 8:17pm
This is my GU 5M, I also trade AU and UJ.

I Trade extremes against the "trend" (whatever that means) to be with the trend (traders taking profits and hopefully the side liners to join in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #141,949
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:24pm Jul 21, 2016 9:24pm
Quote
What do you think is the normal distribution in a neutral range?

I think it is in a neutral range , std deviation for upper and lower band is compressed


Quote
What do you think happens first when a trend is about to change?

The difference from actual value to average value would change , prices deviate far away from the actual central tendency of normal distribution

Quote
Can you spot and put your trading system (despite TF and tools) your last trades you caught or got caught in a change of trend in the context of a normal distribution and price expansion/compression? What went wrong/right?

Of course with such concept one is to translate whatever trading system to fit in the concept while tracking the average value of a random instrument having such distribution... what went wrong is the shift in FA or outside triggers changing the standard deviation of the underlying range and current median volatility unexpectedly e.g flop in data outcome or speculators betting against CB's [loss of credibility for exemple] etc...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,950
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:49pm Jul 21, 2016 9:49pm
Quoting Pharm0r
@hoom, would like to see this play out to short GBP, if you're familiar with norm- then you'll see it's already been achieved by the bulls (to the pip- lends credibility to the validity). Us mofu'ers would be looking for the circled target at the top- which also aligns with several other indies as you can see. Not in a trade, as I believe buying is obviously against the fundamental direction, however; a pull back after target is normal for us and expected- therefor I have my preferred entry. Yes 600 pips away, but at an average of 2-4 trades...
sure the attraction is obvious even though outlook is on the downside FA wise ...waiting for the lvl could be the best option for one who measures his MM and minimize drawdown or what could be called "tight sl trade" compared to the AMR/AWR in your case .

Quoting hoom
{quote} added 1.318x edit: 1.324x ,1.335x, 1.346x where I look if we can get more. I don't like current pa , carney better not be bulshitting us!
As for me I took it from the highs before BoE which didn't meet expectations on a rate cut last week but it played smoothly on retraces since then but was a risky play if I wasn't core short from above ...now looking to USD side for reference til FOMC meeting limiting my TA lvls to the underlying range in play which is huge by the way so I would rather take my orders in between a smaller range of S/R and avoid fading extremes which would bring us to the same concept we're discussing with Sisse
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,951
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:56pm Jul 21, 2016 11:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Even the worst osculation [case G] will give plenty of time to chicken out [for those trading indicators] and prolly a extra close look for those trading pure price but will have a minimum impact TA WISE only as the last swing low will only be barely breached but not broken ... More importantly for this discussion and as you can see the ones fading the waves up both the naive ones on the expansion of the distribution and the ones fading (or the so call 'smart ass scalpers' or whatever they call) the uptrend price extensions will get burn...
You have just answered one of the numerous questions bothering me as I seek making an headway in trading.
I have had a couple of consecutive wins, and all in a snap of a finger, I find myself drooling in loss, cos I've been caught "buying the tops and selling the lows", thinking I'm still in the direction of the trend.
Another account blown... funded the acct with *17 and in 2 weeks I made *90, and on wednesday, got blown off

Your insights are welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #141,953
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:14am Jul 22, 2016 3:14am
Quoting wharley
{quote} You have just answered one of the numerous questions bothering me as I seek making an headway in trading. I have had a couple of consecutive wins, and all in a snap of a finger, I find myself drooling in loss, cos I've been caught "buying the tops and selling the lows", thinking I'm still in the direction of the trend. Another account blown... funded the acct with *17 and in 2 weeks I made *90, and on wednesday, got blown off Your insights are welcome. {image}

Although the post is not directed to me and before somebody else take the lead to answer the "buying the tops and selling the lows" part....
First of all, whatever amount of money you are trading, you should really pay more attention to the 2 very basic concepts below :

> Adequate leverage : You are overleveraging. Way too much. Otherwise your account would not go from 17 to 90 in 2 weeks. This will not work in the long term. No discussion here.
> Cutting losses : Your losses exceed by far your gains. Being in the trend does not mean you let your losses run. Unforecasted events or technical necessities can result in a change in trend. So letting run losses will not work in the long term either.

Hope this simple answer will help.
  • #141,954
  • Jul 22, 2016 4:27am Jul 22, 2016 4:27am
...and that was it for the European session. EZ numbers held the initial reaction on Brexit while UK numbers short-circuited as it was widely expected but nothing out of the expected initial impact range so far.

What is getting clear by the minute and will be confirmed in the upcoming numbers from Europe that EG is heading to parity in a bumpy and choppy ride up. Asia closing week with YEN and to lesser extend Sterling as only movers left in the FX board till FED July...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,957
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:55am Jul 22, 2016 6:55am
@Sisse,
You might like this from David Davis

If, on the other hand EU plays hard ball, and like Trump treats trade as warfare, then inevitably it will be faced with its worst nightmare: Britain becoming a souped-up version of low tax, free trade Singapore, sucking in European investment and talent, right on its own doorstep.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...to-boom-again/
  • #141,958
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:08am Jul 22, 2016 7:08am
Eyes on NY. Sterling GU for the 3er consecutive week triggering imminent break down alerts after this morning numbers.

NY playing ball on the opening range only needs a very soft push to unlock air and sharp moves in the FX boards ....for now not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,959
  • Jul 22, 2016 8:04am Jul 22, 2016 8:04am
ufff ...and now Euro loosing foot before the opening and triggering imminent break down alerts too. Looks rather scary again. Sterling, Euro, Yen and Dollar all aligned !!! [as we had on the Brexit knee jerk reaction move] to the same side.

NY will decide but this look unavoidable now sooner rather than later [later meaning July FED max as there is nothing else in play] and basically hanging on air. We have nearly 3 weeks compression across the FX board, with major FA in play and CB in the middle ...don't ask for more details but a nuclear combo in the oven....

Only the US holding global moves ...lets see...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,960
  • Jul 22, 2016 8:08am Jul 22, 2016 8:08am
Quoting sisse
ufff ...and now Euro loosing foot before the opening and triggering imminent break down alerts too. Looks rather scary again. Sterling, Euro, Yen and Dollar all aligned !!! [as we had on the Brexit knee jerk reaction move] to the same side. NY will decide but this look unavoidable now and rather hanging on air. We have nearly 3 weeks compression across the FX board, with major FA in play and CB in the middle ...don't ask for more details but a nuclear combo in the oven.... Only the US holding global moves ...lets see... sisse
let it be ...I am done waiting for some TPs
Get Rich or Die Tryin
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