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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,921
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:27am Jul 21, 2016 10:27am
There is a tiny possibility that in case eurusd keep failing on building a hard bearish wall and stop rallying towards certain lvls , as we approach FOMC and without change ie dovish outlook even though US data keeps ticking up : a short squeeze towards 1.12xx and beyond is not out of equation !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,922
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:27am Jul 21, 2016 10:27am
Need to collect more sellers
  • #141,923
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:30am Jul 21, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Pharm0r
Need to collect more sellers
May I say that you "mofuers" are getting biased by "norms" ...I am not judging of course .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,924
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:31am Jul 21, 2016 10:31am
Quoting IMARICH1
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "Is nothing to see here until FED July" I feel like a child waiting for Christmas Day in regards to this this EU. 6 months was a long wait for me! Lol MID TERM LEG is on its WAY due to EU Outlook and Brexit taking a toll on it as well.
But still... as Sisse would say, don't try to catch a whale with a small boat.
  • #141,925
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:31am Jul 21, 2016 10:31am
Quoting hoom
{quote} May I say that you "mofuers" are getting biased by "norms" ...I am not judging of course .
? you'll have to explain in more detail- I'm not in a trade, just looks to me like the selling is exhausted. I need a rally to short more
  • #141,926
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:34am Jul 21, 2016 10:34am
Perhaps Fed will oblige me with a rally next week, otherwise nothing for me to do here, I already cleared shorts
  • #141,927
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:34am Jul 21, 2016 10:34am
Totally agree with you ExForX!
  • #141,928
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:35am Jul 21, 2016 10:35am
Quoting sisse

===============OPENING Iteration 14b ==============

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.099x++++

"Knee jerk reaction or a trend change"

ONLY FOR SHORTS


After ECB, How would you manage the position?
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "Is nothing to see here until FED July"
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #141,929
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:38am Jul 21, 2016 10:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} ? you'll have to explain in more detail- I'm not in a trade, just looks to me like the selling is exhausted. I need a rally to short more
I mean you for exemple , and as Sisse pointed out last month if I am not mistaken , were a perma bull in this thread , as myself am a lurker in swamp thread , I see what lvls you are looking for... gator, you etc... for instance gator got s/o many times going long on euro following "norms" so according to your actual sentiment , wouldnt be for your norms that you are waiting for a certain level on the upside , that same lvl could or could not be visited in the short/mid term .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,930
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:41am Jul 21, 2016 10:41am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I mean you for exemple , and as Sisse pointed out last month if I am not mistaken , were a perma bull in this thread , as myself am a lurker in swamp thread , I see what lvls you are looking for... gator, you etc... for instance gator got s/o many times going long on euro following "norms" so according to your actual sentiment , wouldnt be for your norms that you are waiting for a certain level on the upside , that same lvl could or could not be visited in the short/mid term .
as for the exhausted sellers , I do not looks for exhaustion on extremes anymore as market proved me wrong many times by pushing further and further ...so let's say r:r wise , one is to avoid holding or placing a short at these lvls !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,931
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:44am Jul 21, 2016 10:44am
We are in the more expensive seats levels now as well.......
  • #141,932
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:52am Jul 21, 2016 10:52am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I mean you for exemple , and as Sisse pointed out last month if I am not mistaken , were a perma bull in this thread , as myself am a lurker in swamp thread , I see what lvls you are looking for... gator, you etc... for instance gator got s/o many times going long on euro following "norms" so according to your actual sentiment , wouldnt be for your norms that you are waiting for a certain level on the upside , that same lvl could or could not be visited in the short/mid term .
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} It does qualify the poor NFP last month as an outlier though, so that along with the brexit slams the door shut on 1.247x and probably anything above 1.17xx imo
Quoting Pharm0r
As already said, if brexit then consider my bullishness on EU to be completely dead, and it is Again, congrats to those that voted to leave, you've made your bed- get ready to lie in it!
I was quite clear on my thoughts if brexit happened...

norms are just a method, no better than any others- subject to being wrong as much as any others
  • #141,933
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:53am Jul 21, 2016 10:53am
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "Is nothing to see here until FED July"

Getting positive swaps every night Not much but it is nice . Can be ranging to christmas for me and swaps will add up .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #141,934
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:54am Jul 21, 2016 10:54am
I would prefer: Neutral as an option because I see a sideways until FOMC, which could be translated as option (a.) I am not sure. "ECB was not clear I better clear all"
  • #141,935
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:59am Jul 21, 2016 10:59am
I understand what you maybe illustrating though, mofu'ers or rather anyone can often be blinded by their bias towards technical trading- I realize that which is why I'm part of this thread.....you'll notice where I post more. Here or Swamp?
  • #141,936
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:00am Jul 21, 2016 11:00am
Quoting Pharm0r
I understand what you maybe illustrating though, mofu'ers or rather anyone can often be blinded by their bias towards technical trading- I realize that which is why I'm part of this thread.....you'll notice where I post more. Here or Swamp?
all clear
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,937
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:01am Jul 21, 2016 11:01am
Quoting hoom
{quote} all clear
and of course criticism is always welcome, glad we're on the same page
  • #141,938
  • Edited 11:48am Jul 21, 2016 11:31am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting hoom
{quote} as for the exhausted sellers , I do not looks for exhaustion on extremes anymore as market proved me wrong many times by pushing further and further ...so let's say r:r wise , one is to avoid holding or placing a short at these lvls !
Quoting Pharm0r
I understand what you maybe illustrating though, mofu'ers or rather anyone can often be blinded by their bias towards technical trading- I realize that which is why I'm part of this thread.....you'll notice where I post more. Here or Swamp?
Well you both are raising some of the questions i have received before and wanted to discuss in these 3 open iterations.

--> First on the TA part.

I personally always keep a big distance cheerleading, trashing, criticising and even analyzing too much particular TA tools (except for obvious stupid aberration and myths you see around the boards). As Pharm0r put it, they are some traders that may get blinded by TA and miss the forest by the trees.

I always say for non algorithmic trading (and we'll do a iteration on this topic to show it live) is not what tools but how and when do you use them. Give me the most backward, lagging and old indicator and I can proof you it will work almost flawlessly every single time if you are right in direction before hand. While you can give me the most sophisticate MIT PHD quant TA tool and you will blow the account in no time if you don't know when to use it .

Point is, is not about mofu or anything is about why some traders using the same tools can use it effectively and why some can't despite how many hours they put studying a method...

--> On the more interesting part (e.g exhaustion on extremes, etc). With these 3 iterations I wanted to introduce a more advanced concept in the discussion as many people have asked which is the concept of statistical distribution and what it that means in theory to define when a market is trending, chopping around or about to change direction (hence the title "Knee jerk reaction or a trend change").

@hoom the point you are discussing with Pharm0r and describing here "... market proved me wrong many times by pushing further and further..." reflect exactly the statistical trigger that happens when a trend starts:

 

  1. A trend ALWAYS starts for the first time when price move beyond the normal distribution and standard deviation of the underlying range and current median volatility.

I know at first glance its sounds way too complicate to understand and the terms 'too much' to digest but they are simpler to understand in practice. The moment you understand markets in terms of expectations and value while flows in term of statistical distributions the tools (TA) you use to pull the trigger become 'irrelevant' for trading.

We'll dig a deeper in this concept but in very simple and trying to put it in very broad trading words:

  1. In order for a trend to start, the first move/leg/wave of a trend MUST ALWAYS extend the current range distribution (a good way to visualise this is any oscillator staying in deep overbought/oversold) by a large margin to find a fresh distribution area (a new range) in which the underlying can start oscillating up and down again (always extending the range on the side of the new trend).

A couple of charts and live example we'll make this very simple to understand. I personally believe this is a great way to understand and trade markets outside of the usual BS you find around and it will fully complement with the concepts we have been talking about: Direction, outlooks and maps .....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,939
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:35am Jul 21, 2016 11:35am
Quoting Earleone
b. Nay I stay put for final targets. "Is nothing to see here until FED July" Getting positive swaps every night Not much but it is nice . Can be ranging to christmas for me and swaps will add up .
Are you a carry trader? I dislike the idea of leaving a floating position open for too long (doesn't matter if in profit or loss). Okay the pos swaps are a nice psychological bonus but closing a position makes me sleep better at night.
  • #141,940
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:54am Jul 21, 2016 11:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} Well you both are raising some of the questions i have received before and wanted to discuss in these 3 open iterations. --> First on the TA part. I personally always keep a big distance cheerleading, trashing, criticising and even analyzing too much particular TA tools (except for obvious stupid aberration and myths you see around the boards). As Pharm0r put it, they are some traders that may get blinded by TA and miss the forest by the trees. I always say for non algorithmic trading (and we'll do a iteration on this topic to show...
Too much mathematics in one sentence ...je je je no worries for someone ,me, who studied intensive analysis and algebra during a Preparatory Institute for Engineering.

what seems to be the problem for most of us is percieving these variables in real time and understand how it works [theory is too complex for reference] to determine the start/shift in trend and not be the lagger who jump in after the meat move goes away...

as you said and I made some comments about this last month ...one has to be able to find direction else TA [tools] would be irrelevant . Judging by my experience , I trade what I see , my mind memorize the pattern so I might pull the trigger earlier next time assuming I fully understand the FA part .

I hope that we dig deeper in this concept and you do a wrap up [a big one] with a review for the live iterations play ...it is too much to ask for I know , so one can understand the core of the "how", "when" , "why" etc... in term of trading .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
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