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Trading Made Simple

  • #70,221
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:03am Jul 19, 2016 2:03am
EURGBP Week 29 Jul 19 H4 setup in consolidation market with narrowing range

not to trade such setups until there is clear breakout into a trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Week 29 Jul 19 H4 setup.png Size: 49 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #70,222
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:17am Jul 19, 2016 2:17am
USDCAD Week 29 H4

weekly is sideways,
another difficult situation o trade when the price action is near BRN 1.3000 with big and small candles.
it can go either way once there are sufficient orders to fill.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 29 PA near BRN.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #70,223
  • Edited 4:37am Jul 19, 2016 4:11am | Edited 4:37am
sorry, i little confusing here,this is good entry or not ?

and why my C/J not going up ?
(sorry for my bad english)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH4.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4.png Size: 37 KB
2% target/Month !
  • #70,224
  • Jul 19, 2016 5:24am Jul 19, 2016 5:24am
what do people think about cutting losses early?

I notice some traders in TMS will cut losses early rather than let their hard SL get hit
I remember phx saying something like he generally wont let price move more than 25 pips against him despite having a hard stop of 50 pips,

lately i have been trying to cut my losses early and have realised i am infact doing worst.

lets say a person has a stop of 50 pips and a tp of 50 pips and if he wins a trade [price reaches tp] he wins 100, and if he looses a trade [price hits stop loss] then he looses 100

lets say he cuts off 10 trades early when he is down 25 pips instead of letting it reach the 50 pip SL. he saves 50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50,50 ...which is 500

sounds good right?


but what if 5 of those 10 trades he cuts off early don't end up reaching the hard SLof 50 and went onto be winners

that means for each trade like that he took a loss of 50 when he could of gained 100 ...so in real terms his account balance is actually down 150 for each trade he cut early that went on to be a winner

so if 5 of the 10 trades he cut early went onto be winners he would essentially looses 150 x 5... which is 750
and if 5 of the 10 trades he cut early did end up hitting the hard SL he saves 250

he saves 250
he looses 750

overall he looses 500


lets say now, 7 out of the 10 trades he cuts at 25 pip SL would have turned out to be loosers,
that means 3 trades would have won,

so 150 x 3 = 450 in lost profits

as he saves 50 per trade he cut early that would have hit his SL it is 50 x 7 = 350 saved

he saves 350
he looses 450

overall he looses 100
and that's with 70% of the time him being right in cutting the trade early.


really if you are cutting losses in the way phx claims to you need to be right atleast 80% of the time to actually make it worth while.


In all honesty, my opinion is that unless you REALLY know what you are doing, you are probably just best not bothering trying to "cut your losses"

recently I have been cutting losses early and noticed my account balance dwindling sharply.
I noticed a few i cut early went onto be winners, so i was curious and decided to "do the sums"
and now it's plain to see why my account balance has dwindled so rapidly. Luckily this is on my demo account.
  • #70,225
  • Jul 19, 2016 5:29am Jul 19, 2016 5:29am
and why the hell is the pound symbol sign auto censored??????

I put those figures in pounds and just realised that all the symbols are now gone.


talk about OTT censorship. jeez
  • #70,226
  • Edited 7:14am Jul 19, 2016 6:31am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting kain775
what do people think about cutting losses early? I notice some traders in TMS will cut losses early rather than let their hard SL get hit I remember phx saying something like he generally wont let price move more than 25 pips against him despite having a hard stop of 50 pips, lately i have been trying to cut my losses early and have realised i am infact doing worst. lets say a person has a stop of 50 pips and a tp of 50 pips and if he wins a trade [price reaches tp] he wins 100, and if he looses a trade [price hits stop loss] then he looses 100...
IMO cutting losses should be based on PA as well along with negative pips. We should be able to differentiate between reversal and normal retracement.

In SE system normally people cut the loss and closed the trades whereas while following ME system I add the position to get batter average. It depends on your business plan and MM strategy.

Thanks
  • #70,227
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:38am Jul 19, 2016 6:38am
Quoting kain775
what do people think about cutting losses early? I notice some traders in TMS will cut losses early rather than let their hard SL get hit I remember phx saying something like he generally wont let price move more than 25 pips against him despite having a hard stop of 50 pips, lately i have been trying to cut my losses early and have realised i am infact doing worst. t.
Good point you bring up which very few people seem to talk about around here. I am cutting losses fast as well, when I see that my trade isn't taking off within the first 3-4 hours, on a great setup which I decided to enter, along with overall trend. I'll close that trade, whether it's 2 pips in profit or 10 in loss, i don't care.

Now to expect your trade not to go into negative is very dangerous and it rarely happens in practice. Also, being a "cut losses fast" type trader and abusing this mentality, it means every time the trade goes below your breakeven, you exit, as "not to lose more".You'll be technically turning every trade into an occasion to lose a couple of pips and this should not be your objective. You should not have a hard rule and judge for yourself whether a trade should be let to "breathe" or a trade has gone wrong and you should bail out. The major difference between riding a trend is that when your trade goes into negative, you can fairly reasonable expect it to be market oscillation, whereas having a trade go into negative on a counter trend, could signal more powerful forces against you, in which case I one will bail out. Hope this helps a bit.
Best regards, Zef
  • #70,228
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:41am Jul 19, 2016 6:41am
Quoting mkfx
{quote} IMO cutting losses should be based on PA as well along with negative pips. We should be able to differentiate between reversal and normal retracement. In SE system normally people cut the loss and closed the trades whereas while following ME system I add the position to get better average. It depends on your business plan and MM strategy. Thanks


based on your statement it seems like ME might have the edge when it comes to cutting losses then, I wouldn't know as I haven't studied ME. Perhaps I will give it a try one day if SE doesn't work out for me. Seems like it might be a bit complicated though
  • #70,229
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:47am Jul 19, 2016 6:47am
Quoting ZeF
{quote} Good point you bring up which very few people seem to talk about around here. I am cutting losses fast as well, when I see that my trade isn't taking off within the first 3-4 hours, on a great setup which I decided to enter, along with overall trend. I'll close that trade, whether it's 2 pips in profit or 10 in loss, i don't care. Now to expect your trade not to go into negative is very dangerous and it rarely happens in practice. Also, being a "cut losses fast" type trader and abusing this mentality, it means every time the trade goes below...

this way sounds a little better than waiting for your trade to get into negative and only then cutting it.

I guess though you must have to have quite good skills being able read the market to do it successfully
  • #70,230
  • Jul 19, 2016 8:01am Jul 19, 2016 8:01am
i won't go too deep on this but i've just been doing the sums on BE + 5 as this seems to be used by a lot of traders, and whilst it works out better than the other method of cutting losses early, I am not entirely convinced BE +5 is actually "good for the trader"


if you BE +5 with an intial SL and TP of 50, and only BE +5 once price reaches 50% of the way to the TP ...then once you BE if 5 trades go onto win and 5 trades go onto loose you will be slightly up [in terms of balance]


however what you've got to consider is this, if price is already 50% of it's way to your TP and there is no resistance or obstacles or exhausted ADR preventing it going further ...you've probably got around a 75% chance that price will reach your TP before it reaches your hard stop loss. now considering this ...is it really in the traders best interest to BE+5 .....??????
  • #70,231
  • Jul 19, 2016 8:22am Jul 19, 2016 8:22am
pleasee answer my question
2% target/Month !
  • #70,232
  • Jul 19, 2016 8:51am Jul 19, 2016 8:51am
After analyzing Phx62 chart, it comes to conclusion that indeed it's always good time to trade in London session especially when it overlaps with NY session. Better use H4 chart for bigger pips and Daily chart as market trend. Just like eelfranz says, it is less stressful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmH4.png Size: 38 KB
Trade What You See NOT What You Expect
  • #70,233
  • Jul 19, 2016 9:18am Jul 19, 2016 9:18am
Quoting arwinkim
After analyzing Phx62 chart, it comes to conclusion that indeed it's always good time to trade in London session especially when it overlaps with NY session. Better use H4 chart for bigger pips and Daily chart as market trend. Just like eelfranz says, it is less stressful. {image}


bit risky though, it's almost at support.


but thanks for posting this, i shall keep an eye on it tomorrow ready to buy at support if an opportunity presents itself
  • #70,234
  • Edited 11:06am Jul 19, 2016 10:49am | Edited 11:06am
more food for thought

how much is everyone risking per trade and what is your RR ratio?

I have gone back to demo to practice atm but have been risking 2% per trade.
I have heard emmanuel say never let your drawndown get to above 10% ....but it will take too much trades to make good money if i risk 0.02% like him as I am not rich like him. Most traders recommend risking 1% so I thought to myself 2% will be a bit aggressive but not enough to blow an account.

my R:R for tms is 1:1
I assumed a 60% winning rate [don't want to be too cocky and assume 80% or 70%]

but occording to this calculator I have a 53% chance of getting to 20% drawndown, and a 29% chance of reaching my retirement figure which is quite reasonable at 50 times my opening balance. [tbh i'd want more than 50 times my opening balance but tried to be reasonable]

Is trading really this brutal????
please tell me there's something wrong with the calculator.

do I really have to risk 1% or less for a chance at long term survival.
It's looking like emmanuel might be right on this.

I notice the figures with 65% win rate seem a bit better though,
more chance of reaching retirement,
perhaps I will aim for a 65% win rate at 1:1 RR, and drop my amount risked from 2% to 1.5%

I think a 65% win rate is an achievable target to work towards. 70 - 80% would be great though.

http://www.forexscamalerts.com/risk-...own-calculator


I suggest everybody here do the sums though to make sure you have a decent chance of making it,
glad I found that site.
  • #70,235
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:12am Jul 19, 2016 11:12am
Quoting kain775
more food for thought how much is everyone risking per trade and what is your RR ratio? I have gone back to demo to practice atm but have been risking 2% per trade. I have heard emmanuel say never let your drawndown get to above 10% ....but it will take too much trades to make good money if i risk 0.02% like him as I am not rich like him. Most traders recommend risking 1% so I thought to myself 2% will be a bit aggressive but not enough to blow an account. my R:R for tms is 1:1 I assumed a 60% winning rate [don't want to be too cocky and assume...


actually playing with the figures further it seems there is still a likely chance of reaching retirement at 2% risk if i am willing to tolerate upto a 30% drawdown ...but emmanuel said anything below 10% is hard to recover from, I wish I kept his drawdown chart
  • #70,236
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:30am Jul 19, 2016 11:30am
Quoting kain775
more food for thought
trading really this brutal????
please tell me there's something wrong with the calculator
I suggest everybody here do
.
Hmmh.. yes .. there is something what the calculator didn t calculate !
.. YOU !

Rich calculating is done quickly.. done by thousands of sites..

The system is great! .. but what makes it effective is experience and a strong mind..


This post about 2 years ago can help you to to build both .. the first secret is training ...
Here you go : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post7743986

Green pips
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #70,237
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:37am Jul 19, 2016 11:37am
.. by the way.. and here´s one of my trades today .. in m5 ( trade the tms since 4 weeks only in m5 and m15 live )


Ecad , 12 pips green

Guido
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADcM5 19.7.2016.png Size: 36 KB
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #70,238
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:56am Jul 19, 2016 11:56am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
.. by the way.. and heres one of my trades today .. in m5 ( trade the tms since 4 weeks only in m5 and m15 live ) Ecad , 12 pips green Guido {image}


nice trade,

yes, I think m5 is probably gonna be the most lucrative setup simply due to the amount of bars it prints.
thanks for reminding me about the simulator i tried it once when trading a system that wasn't tms, i found it kinda slow [printing bars] and couldn't work out how to speed it up,

one thing i worry about on the simulator though is how do you account for news releases?
if you are trading 5th may 2013 for example you're not gonna have a list of important news releases onhand ....or do you?
  • #70,239
  • Edited 4:40pm Jul 19, 2016 12:22pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} news releases onhand ....or do you?
Yes, thats true, m5 and news is killing .
But the m5 Chart isn t a all day chart.
After 2-3 hours you get confused ..
I do it after work .. some pips here.. some there thats it .

Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #70,240
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:11pm Jul 19, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting kain775
what do people think about cutting losses early? I notice some traders in TMS will cut losses early rather than let their hard SL get hit I remember phx saying something like he generally wont let price move more than 25 pips against him despite having a hard stop of 50 pips, lately i have been trying to cut my losses early and have realised i am infact doing worst. lets say a person has a stop of 50 pips and a tp of 50 pips and if he wins a trade [price reaches tp] he wins 100, and if he looses a trade [price hits stop loss] then he looses 100...
I think your looking at it all wrong. you can cut losses short. you just have to be patient and be a sell limit trader, buy limit trader, it also depends on the strategy you trade and the timeframe you trade. It takes experience and thinking its possible to do it.

its not fly by and a dream either, it can be done and is done by traders.. I'll see if I can post some examples some time..

it doesn't have to be .
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
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