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Expanding Grid

  • #1,961
  • Jul 12, 2016 9:56pm Jul 12, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting bauta
...What is new? Neutralization,....}
explorer EG104/a240 created. It needs 3 months to go live.
let's master it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/bauta/25


25K account, trading 0.01 lot per each $2,500, reserve 20%. Symmetry mode, release 32c defaults parameters.
now 8 charts open.
DayTarget NeutralizePercent=50
bauta
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 279 KB
  • #1,962
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:48pm Jul 12, 2016 11:48pm
Bauta,

It will be great to create a Expanding strategy to open trades to follow the trend.
  • #1,963
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:00am Jul 13, 2016 2:00am
Quoting bauta
I am stopping trading on this explorer. copying results here for future reviews. Results; FAILURE {image}
Hi Bauta,

Would you please share setting and pairs that have been used for this explorer?
Which pair/pairs made failure in this account? I guess it was USDJPY or GBPJPY very trendy pairs. i never use them for Symmetry setting.

Thanks
Mohsen
  • #1,964
  • Edited 4:09am Jul 13, 2016 2:56am | Edited 4:09am
The neutralize function is very handy Bauta, but recovering from it will be a further challenge, or so it reads.
Following your early advise: to keep EG104 alive as long as can, is the real challenge.
So, have you considered this?
When taking a look at the monthly chart, if the price is low in the range it is more risky to go short, simply because moves up will be typically more violent than moves down. The reverse is true for when the price is high in the range of a monthly chart: it will be risky to go long because moves down will be very violent, as opposed to moves up.
While I understand that grid trading is nondirectional, when entering a grid the EA can be a little bit direction-aware. So maybe it is an idea to have the DynamicPercentIncrease be high for shorts on the low-end of the monthly chart (maybe 22-24) and use that same factor for longs on the high end of the monthly chart. For Longs at the low-end of the chart we can use a DynamicPercentIncrease of 12-14, and same for shorts At the high-end of the chart. When in the middle of the monthly chart we can use the 16 for either side as you used earlier.
To determine if we are low on the monthly chart, we can use a range, or maybe something more fancy like e.g. Belkhayate, which I happen to like.
I think it would have helped with JPY on which we went short very low on the monthly.
Some direction awareness before entering the market and setting up the grids with price relative to past months in mind maybe helpful in avoiding trouble.
  • #1,965
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:28am Jul 13, 2016 3:28am
Nice points route206, although Bauta defends that this grid system should be protected by the large trading capital, I do believe there is space to improvement considering the concept or similar strategy to what you've pointed out.
We all know this is a ranging grid, that profits from retracements, but if we managed to find a way to protect the account in strong trends movements, like yesterday jpy, it will allows to lower very significantly the DD and consequently maximize profits.

Now, what can we do to achieve this...that's the question...
  • #1,966
  • Jul 13, 2016 7:28am Jul 13, 2016 7:28am
Quoting Route206
The neutralize function is very handy Bauta, but recovering from it will be a further challenge, or so it reads. Following your early advise: to keep EG104 alive as long as can, is the real challenge. So, have you considered this? When taking a look at the monthly chart, if the price is low in the range it is more risky to go short, simply because moves up will be typically more violent than moves down. The reverse is true for when the price is high in the range of a monthly chart: it will be risky to go long because moves down will be very violent,...
thanks route206,
I will revise this idea. I will keep optimizing symmetry mode, but if I do so, it will apply for channel too.
this is what I do understand:
while in symmetry, if price is too low, slowdown selling, if price is too high slowdown buying, if price is on the middle, go aggressive.
I think it will be better if I do use quantity multiplier instead of dynamic percent, or maybe both.
let's revise it,
once again, thanks for your support,
bauta
  • #1,967
  • Edited 10:05am Jul 13, 2016 9:28am | Edited 10:05am
Apologies for doing a poor job explaining.. maybe a picture helps.
the idea is to slow down accumulation during times of high risk that price moves to the middle, so when it is very high or very low in band.
So for example in case of our current JPY situation: the grid for shorts would have been wider (use 22-24) than the grid for longs (12-14). Both grids would be set up at the same time while taking initial 0.01/0.01 position long and short. Only when price is in the middle, we use default 16/16
Picture is using Belkhayate, but any channel or combination of trendlines could be uses. Whatever is easier to program.
Symmetry mode only!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 124 KB
  • #1,968
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:01am Jul 13, 2016 10:01am
Quoting Route206
Apologies for doing a poor job explaining.. maybe a picture helps. the idea is to slow down accumulation during times of high risk that price moves to the middle, so when it is very high or very low in band. So for example in case of our current JPY situation: the grid for shorts would have been wider (use 22-24) than the grid for longs (12-14). Both grids would be set up at the same time while taking initial 0.01/0.01 position long and short. Only when price is in the middle, we use default 16/16 Picture is using Belkhayate, but any channel or...
very nice idea, Route 206...., if you do allow, I have attached this indi as an oscillator, too...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 270 KB


The area "dark gray" in the middle which represents the area centroid. When the price is in
this area, it is recommended to do nothing because the probability of being right (or wrong) is
about 50%. It is a neutral zone where he must show patience and prepare next position.
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,969
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:16am Jul 13, 2016 10:16am
Quoting Route206
Apologies for doing a poor job explaining.. maybe a picture helps. the idea is to slow down accumulation ...
I do understand... You explained well the first time.
EG104 work best and profit best when dynamic is disable, not expansion at all, but a very big amount of capital is needed to allow it survive big moves. The dynamic grid feature was created to control accumulation on the side that is loosing, (biggest qty side) and keep the other side without expansion. Dynamic try to slow accumulation regardless of market expected direction.
I do recommend to keep dynamic grid feature as is, with the option to enable and disable it, increase percentage or decrease percentage. Expansion or compression.
I do like your idea and I will give it a try, bud I will do it separated from the original dynamic feature. your idea is kind of controlling the expected move, the future move, not the actual move, not the existing move.
I do like this idea because EG104 symmetry mode likes to buy below price and sell above price. the graphic you posted shows exactly how symmetry may perform better using your approach.
on the other hand, there are not indicator there that may predict the future, in the image you posted we all may forecast that the market will go up. Well!, it may go or no, that is unknown, it may go aggressively down, no one know.
But if we are able to position on the biggest odds side, we will perform better, now, if it fail, EG104 will then use the original dynamic calculation to address the side that is losing. The biggest quantity one.
give some time to correlate all this ideas together, I will post progress here.
once again, thanks for your post and good luck trading to you all!
bauta
  • #1,970
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:21am Jul 13, 2016 10:21am
Quoting jdva
{quote} I have attached this indi as an oscillator, too...
Thanks, but please note it is the same indi: Belkhayate. The remark that we don't do anything in grey zone is for trend traders using SL/TP. Not for grid traders!
Again, using channels or trend lines also work. The general idea is to take some history into account. Not too much!
  • #1,971
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:29am Jul 13, 2016 10:29am
Quoting bauta
{quote}there are not indicator there that may predict the future,
I can't argue with that
It is all about indeed trying to take a little historic perspective into account, with the emphasis on "little", as indeed, the market does what it wants.
Note the Belkhayate also repaints, one of its drawbacks, but still good for a 'little'
  • #1,972
  • Jul 14, 2016 9:26am Jul 14, 2016 9:26am
Quoting bauta
{quote} explorer EG104/a240 created. ...{image}

EG104/a240 setup:
I did closure mode USDCHF, NZDUSD, USDCAD and EURJPY.

I will trade only this 4 pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD
I am setting StartLotQty=0.02 for the above pairs. (0.02*4*100000*2500=20K)
bauta
  • #1,973
  • Jul 14, 2016 5:10pm Jul 14, 2016 5:10pm
Hi,
after very good demo I'm trying to go live; but it's always **FLAT** (altert: TRADE NOT ALLOWED LIVE ON THIS ACCOUNT). Is it the same EA file for demo and live account? In post #1,835 you say:
Quote

  1. If you are trading live, revise the expert log file and check that EA account verified to trade ***LIVE*** is printed there.

In log file no mention about EA, nor ther's sentence you reported (EA account verified...)

What shell I do?
Thanks!
  • #1,974
  • Edited 3:23am Jul 15, 2016 3:12am | Edited 3:23am
Bauta, I'm forward testing newest versions EG104 32c and DayTarget 06 with 20 pairs on a well-capitalized EUR demo account. So far so good.
Default settings except "ATR_20day", DayTarget profit amount $300 and DailyReset=false.
But profit amount $300 remains the same and did not accumulate next server day to $/600.
Hence on the last two days when profit amount 300 has been achieved (B>A), EA went to closure mode. I guess because DayTarget amount did not accumulate to 600 as it really should do...as C was never bigger than A!

Any idea/help?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG32c.png Size: 55 KB


Happy pipping, jdva
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,975
  • Jul 15, 2016 5:06am Jul 15, 2016 5:06am
Bauta or Helpers, my broker has changed by mistake my password, so that I lost connection...now all charts are "DISABLED"...!

How do I get them running again?

Thanks, jdva
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,976
  • Jul 15, 2016 5:11am Jul 15, 2016 5:11am
Quoting jdva
Bauta or Helpers, my broker has changed by mistake my password, so that I lost connection...now all charts are "DISABLED"...! How do I get them running again? Thanks, jdva
how it looks now:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG.png Size: 29 KB
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,977
  • Jul 15, 2016 5:28am Jul 15, 2016 5:28am
Quoting jdva
Bauta or Helpers, my broker has changed by mistake my password, so that I lost connection...now all charts are "DISABLED"...! How do I get them running again? Thanks, jdva
FYI...I've created a TE on my Profile...
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,978
  • Jul 15, 2016 6:50am Jul 15, 2016 6:50am
Hello Bauta,
Yesterday I hedged my EURJPY as the market kept grinding higher and i didn't want 5.11 lots of (my!) JPY floating around in the market. So far a smart choice.
As am licking my wounds, i have been doing a lot of thinking ... a lot!
Your EA is really good, nothing changes that, but the JPY showed us there is still the Black Swan event we need to address.
My earlier post on expanding the grid based on a certain price position relative to the monthly chart... well... forget it. While it may do some, it will not prevent anything, so don't waste your time on that idea.
Don't take this the wrong way, but your proposal to hedge everything upon a 50% drawdown of total account, I don't think it is the solution either. If you have lost half your money, no-one can think straight anymore. Adding to that, you're now going to use a different EA on a different terminal to make a 100% profit after you lost 50%. IMHO that is too difficult and too stressful for most people. I know it will be for me ;-(

Trying to stay out of trouble is the key (both financially and emotionally)
So first: avoid currencies that are known to make long runs such as JPY, they may be ideal for mChannel, not for Symmetry. I am certainly not going to use JPY for symmetry anymore. Are there more currencies to avoid??
Second and most important: given that 98% of trades successfully close within 6 or so grid levels, we need to really work with that fantastic number!
So:

  1. When 1 EA is getting into trouble, make sure to keep other EAs alive, as they will continue making you money.
  2. For the EA in trouble: hedge when it is about to open its 7th grid level (or 6, or 8... to be determined)
  3. Now that the hedge is in place, there is no stress that losses will increase.
  4. Patience is now key! So cool down while the remaining EAs keep making you money (the 98%)
  5. Let hedged position stay in the market for a couple of days. Clearly there is a trend so let it ride and die down, use DAILY chart to determine that. Meanwhile this EA is in "Hedge-mode" and no new positions are opened.
  6. Only when (on the DAILY chart) the price has formed a top, made a low and then a lower high is when the EA should take off the Hedge and continue trading the remaining position back to Neutral in closure-mode. (This is for being trapped short in a bull market (current JPY situation), opposite is true for bear market). If there is a better indicator of a reversing market, by all means, use that.
  7. suggest to time the re-entry with a high of some oscillator on the 5m chart (e.g. CCI>100 for Shorts or <-100 for Longs) hedge is taken out and normal trading resumes in 'closure-mode'.


I think this approach has a few advantages:

  1. No high losses: stopping at grid level 5 or 6 is a loss equal to a couple of days of profit. Our stress level can manage that more easily than 50% DD.
  2. Stop fighting the market - step out from a loosing battle. It is not smart to try and win the 2% when you already win 98%
  3. One EA can manage it all, no user intervention necessary. User intervention is where things are very likely to go wrong is my experience.
  4. Introduce Patience and Time-out by switching to the daily charts, instead of immediate and manual recovery attempts in Panic-Mode.
  5. if market keeps grinding and it takes weeks to reverse, one can also decide to take the loss as it is off-set by the profits made during the same period. So not a loss really.

If this is worth pursuing (and i really hope it is!!) then to prevent this EA to go into hedge-mode too often, the grid may not be too small. So i suggest to put in a maximum GridSizeFactor of 6 (maybe 5) to prevent that.

Please take my suggestions as positive criticism, just want to help.
Again, your EA is really performing well, let's make sure the 2% don't spoil it by introducing a time out in a trending market in anticipation of market reversal.

  • #1,979
  • Jul 15, 2016 8:58am Jul 15, 2016 8:58am
Quoting jdva
Bauta or Helpers, my broker has changed by mistake my password, so that I lost connection...now all charts are "DISABLED"...! How do I get them running again? Thanks, jdva
I found the solution...simply did adjust DayTarget to 400...! Now running everything/all again...!
have to pat myself on the back...

Happy pipping, jdva
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,980
  • Jul 15, 2016 9:47am Jul 15, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Route206
Hello Bauta, Yesterday I hedged my EURJPY as the market kept grinding higher and i didn't want 5.11 lots of (my!) JPY floating around in the market. So far a smart choice. ....
good reflections post.
I will study all of this. I do remember in the past a parameter called MaximunLevels, I may revise and create a parameter like NeutralizeLevel.
note I do not believe in neutralizing. it is hard and complicate to de-neutralize.

thanks and good luck trading!,
bauta
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