Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
News trading discussion - continuation
- #2,962
- Jul 8, 2016 12:45pm Jul 8, 2016 12:45pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
{quote} Thank you it works great now.Just had to drag and drop on to the order line.It closes 1-2 pip away from the SL line but still nice.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,963
- Jul 8, 2016 10:19pm Jul 8, 2016 10:19pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
After NFP - Bank of England takes the baton: to stake a decision on the% rate.
On Friday published Nonfarm, forecast that does not match a whopping 107K + jobs, the dollar reacted accordingly. Next week, the Bank of England will hold the first after the referendum on Brexit meeting at which could reduce the interest rate, so that the shore all these seven years ...
The Bank of England may lower rates next week.
In general, at the end of the week, the markets finally laid in the price of the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, and nearly completed to price its possible "zero" state. That kind of talk (about the zero rate) are increasingly heard in the outgoing week.
Next week the markets will puzzle: whether the Bank of England acts instantaneously, whether it will reduce the interest rate now, or in August.
At the moment, we see that the projections on the subject to separate: some already at 0.25% (reduction), while some 0.5%.
Recall that Mark Carney reiterated the need to reduce interest rates, as well as expanding to support the economy of the program, but he also stressed the need to weigh up the situation in detail - the original plan was to discuss the situation at a meeting on July 14 to prepare appropriate measures and in August to take them.
According to the report of the Financial Stability situation can develop rapidly as Carney said: "risks begin to crystallize" that pushes the markets' expectations of acceleration. "
It is expected that on Tuesday will hear the quarterly inflation report, which will open up additional opportunities for the Bank's decision on Thursday.
RBA required report on the labor market and inflation.
Australia election results after the weekend was under attack and the risk of reducing the credit rating. All three key rating agencies declared their readiness rankings reduction: Fitch, S & P and Moody's - seriously "experience" because of the uncertainty, since no party on the results of the elections will not be able to form a majority government that threatens to delay of the budget reform. And these "experiences" were not in vain.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged: 1.75%, noting that:
- AUD growth complicates the balance in the economy
- Inflation is low and will remain so for a long time
- Total economic growth continues
- Low interest rates support the domestic demand
As we have noted before publishing solutions - RBA expects the quarterly statistics of the consumer price index, which will be followed later in the month, and the next meeting of the Bank can be quite busy, economic activity, Brexit and weak inflation could trigger interest rate reduction.
On Thursday, the S & P still waited and reduced credit rating outlook for Australia from "stable" to "negative." "We are revising our outlook for Australia's credit rating from stable to negative, because we believe that without appropriate action budgetary position will no longer correspond to the high level of external debt of the country."
Before the inflation report we still see important statistics on the labor market, which will be published in the coming Thursday.
Do not forget that the Aussie continues to monitor not only for Europe, in its attention to China and commodity prices.
Non-Farm held.
Dudley on Tuesday officially confirmed the view of the market: the FOMC may "continue to be patient," as voted Britain was not predicted for the committee. Inflation is now allowing the Fed to enter standby mode, and the following steps Fedreza impossible to predict, since total dependence on statistics. And the statistics should be ...
Wednesday's Fed "minutes" showed concern and willingness Brexit FOMC members to slow down on this background. Now the markets are no longer involve an increase in the Fed this year. It is worth noting that the reports reflect the views of FOMC until the referendum, as the session was held two weeks ago, and the full paper was published only now. The protocols do not forget to note the slowdown in hiring in the US market, and anxiety in relation to its May rollback. Before the publication of Non-Farm Friday we asked cautious hint-question online: "Do I need a Non-Farm Market" and its publication provided us with a clear answer.
On Friday published such data Non-Farm Payrolls:
- US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.9% (0.1%) against the forecast of 4.8% and the previous 4.7%
- US Nonfarm Payrolls showed a gain of 287K (112) vs. 180 forecasted. The data of the last release have been revised 38K to 11K
US Average Hourly Earnings in fact 0.1% (-0.1%) against the forecast of 0.2%
- US Average Weekly Hours (weekly working out) on the fact and the forecast 34.4
Market reaction was sufficient for about USDJPY shape within a few minutes.
But the pressure on the dollar remains: technical report on the reshuffle has occurred with the May strikes on Verizon (then the data packet has been eliminated, is now included); Unemployment fell back below the psychological milestone, but retreated, wage dynamics is mediocre, and the psychological pressure on the part of the future challenges of the global economy do not give grounds for optimism. In such circumstances, the dollar to fall in the day it would be easier, however the reaction of the instant growth of quotations on the face, as the headliner data significantly exceeded not that forecast, but the psychological threshold of 200K.
Setting aside and look at the average value of the report for the last six months, output in simple terms can be: good, but not enough to pull on his entire monetary policy of the Fed.
The probability of a December Fed raising interest rates unchanged for the CME Group - is a 20% chance. In a global way, we would have said that such a possibility and does not. The main step is now for the Bank of England, which in the case of a rate cut will give the "green whistle" the rest of central banks to change their policies and views.
The following week, my attention is drawn to the publication of the US retail and inflation.
RBNZ worries property prices.
On Thursday, the statement of the Head of the NZD RBNZ supported, namely the further reduction in interest rates may harm financial stability and the level of the consumer price index is a key indicator for monetary policy regulation. This statement was tied to an overheated housing market and the need to curb lending. The situation reminds us such statements from the Bank of England and the interest rate of about 0.5% in the autumn of 2015, but we all know you, how can rapidly changing situation ...
(RBNZ afraid to reduce the rate to further stimulate lending and not as a withdrawal of growth in property prices).
Another important point to New Zealander (personal) will be the publication of the quarterly inflation report next week. This is the log in his eye, which will make itself felt and the RBNZ will have to "think again".
CAD, as a "light" extraction of the week.
Easy prey for the second week in a row becomes the product range CAD, which is exactly the same situation with oil quotations.
For the general American back, many have not noticed the publication of the Canadian labor market report on Friday, and was to him like this:
- CA Net Change in Employment fact -0.7K (-5.7) versus 5K forecast
- CA Unemployment Rate Unemployment fell to 6.8% (-0.2%) versus 7.0%
- Participation rate 65.5% versus 65.7%
In general, Canadians hold good in this regard, despite the decline in oil prices. Better than some others economies, tied to Brent.
Next week will be a meeting of the Bank of Canada - truly a good event for the stock CAD and food for the markets, it is not clear how Poloz plans to cope with the instability in the background of forest fires Alberta, Brexit risks (which and oil presses), the risk of slowing down the American neighbor and failure of the Fed from further tightening of regulation.
Total, that we have in the long term
- The Bank of England will hold a meeting next week
- The markets picked up the probability of reducing the Bank of England now, at the current meeting on Thursday
- The Bank of England will be the first who will start to build real action in the hurricane «Brexit», paving the way for the rest of the regulators
- RBA and RBNZ expected quarterly inflation reports
- The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting in a complex environment
- Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the labor market
After NFP - Bank of England takes the baton: to stake a decision on the% rate.
On Friday published Nonfarm, forecast that does not match a whopping 107K + jobs, the dollar reacted accordingly. Next week, the Bank of England will hold the first after the referendum on Brexit meeting at which could reduce the interest rate, so that the shore all these seven years ...
The Bank of England may lower rates next week.
In general, at the end of the week, the markets finally laid in the price of the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, and nearly completed to price its possible "zero" state. That kind of talk (about the zero rate) are increasingly heard in the outgoing week.
Next week the markets will puzzle: whether the Bank of England acts instantaneously, whether it will reduce the interest rate now, or in August.
At the moment, we see that the projections on the subject to separate: some already at 0.25% (reduction), while some 0.5%.
Recall that Mark Carney reiterated the need to reduce interest rates, as well as expanding to support the economy of the program, but he also stressed the need to weigh up the situation in detail - the original plan was to discuss the situation at a meeting on July 14 to prepare appropriate measures and in August to take them.
According to the report of the Financial Stability situation can develop rapidly as Carney said: "risks begin to crystallize" that pushes the markets' expectations of acceleration. "
It is expected that on Tuesday will hear the quarterly inflation report, which will open up additional opportunities for the Bank's decision on Thursday.
RBA required report on the labor market and inflation.
Australia election results after the weekend was under attack and the risk of reducing the credit rating. All three key rating agencies declared their readiness rankings reduction: Fitch, S & P and Moody's - seriously "experience" because of the uncertainty, since no party on the results of the elections will not be able to form a majority government that threatens to delay of the budget reform. And these "experiences" were not in vain.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged: 1.75%, noting that:
- AUD growth complicates the balance in the economy
- Inflation is low and will remain so for a long time
- Total economic growth continues
- Low interest rates support the domestic demand
As we have noted before publishing solutions - RBA expects the quarterly statistics of the consumer price index, which will be followed later in the month, and the next meeting of the Bank can be quite busy, economic activity, Brexit and weak inflation could trigger interest rate reduction.
On Thursday, the S & P still waited and reduced credit rating outlook for Australia from "stable" to "negative." "We are revising our outlook for Australia's credit rating from stable to negative, because we believe that without appropriate action budgetary position will no longer correspond to the high level of external debt of the country."
Before the inflation report we still see important statistics on the labor market, which will be published in the coming Thursday.
Do not forget that the Aussie continues to monitor not only for Europe, in its attention to China and commodity prices.
Non-Farm held.
Dudley on Tuesday officially confirmed the view of the market: the FOMC may "continue to be patient," as voted Britain was not predicted for the committee. Inflation is now allowing the Fed to enter standby mode, and the following steps Fedreza impossible to predict, since total dependence on statistics. And the statistics should be ...
Wednesday's Fed "minutes" showed concern and willingness Brexit FOMC members to slow down on this background. Now the markets are no longer involve an increase in the Fed this year. It is worth noting that the reports reflect the views of FOMC until the referendum, as the session was held two weeks ago, and the full paper was published only now. The protocols do not forget to note the slowdown in hiring in the US market, and anxiety in relation to its May rollback. Before the publication of Non-Farm Friday we asked cautious hint-question online: "Do I need a Non-Farm Market" and its publication provided us with a clear answer.
On Friday published such data Non-Farm Payrolls:
- US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.9% (0.1%) against the forecast of 4.8% and the previous 4.7%
- US Nonfarm Payrolls showed a gain of 287K (112) vs. 180 forecasted. The data of the last release have been revised 38K to 11K
US Average Hourly Earnings in fact 0.1% (-0.1%) against the forecast of 0.2%
- US Average Weekly Hours (weekly working out) on the fact and the forecast 34.4
Market reaction was sufficient for about USDJPY shape within a few minutes.
But the pressure on the dollar remains: technical report on the reshuffle has occurred with the May strikes on Verizon (then the data packet has been eliminated, is now included); Unemployment fell back below the psychological milestone, but retreated, wage dynamics is mediocre, and the psychological pressure on the part of the future challenges of the global economy do not give grounds for optimism. In such circumstances, the dollar to fall in the day it would be easier, however the reaction of the instant growth of quotations on the face, as the headliner data significantly exceeded not that forecast, but the psychological threshold of 200K.
Setting aside and look at the average value of the report for the last six months, output in simple terms can be: good, but not enough to pull on his entire monetary policy of the Fed.
The probability of a December Fed raising interest rates unchanged for the CME Group - is a 20% chance. In a global way, we would have said that such a possibility and does not. The main step is now for the Bank of England, which in the case of a rate cut will give the "green whistle" the rest of central banks to change their policies and views.
The following week, my attention is drawn to the publication of the US retail and inflation.
RBNZ worries property prices.
On Thursday, the statement of the Head of the NZD RBNZ supported, namely the further reduction in interest rates may harm financial stability and the level of the consumer price index is a key indicator for monetary policy regulation. This statement was tied to an overheated housing market and the need to curb lending. The situation reminds us such statements from the Bank of England and the interest rate of about 0.5% in the autumn of 2015, but we all know you, how can rapidly changing situation ...
(RBNZ afraid to reduce the rate to further stimulate lending and not as a withdrawal of growth in property prices).
Another important point to New Zealander (personal) will be the publication of the quarterly inflation report next week. This is the log in his eye, which will make itself felt and the RBNZ will have to "think again".
CAD, as a "light" extraction of the week.
Easy prey for the second week in a row becomes the product range CAD, which is exactly the same situation with oil quotations.
For the general American back, many have not noticed the publication of the Canadian labor market report on Friday, and was to him like this:
- CA Net Change in Employment fact -0.7K (-5.7) versus 5K forecast
- CA Unemployment Rate Unemployment fell to 6.8% (-0.2%) versus 7.0%
- Participation rate 65.5% versus 65.7%
In general, Canadians hold good in this regard, despite the decline in oil prices. Better than some others economies, tied to Brent.
Next week will be a meeting of the Bank of Canada - truly a good event for the stock CAD and food for the markets, it is not clear how Poloz plans to cope with the instability in the background of forest fires Alberta, Brexit risks (which and oil presses), the risk of slowing down the American neighbor and failure of the Fed from further tightening of regulation.
Total, that we have in the long term
- The Bank of England will hold a meeting next week
- The markets picked up the probability of reducing the Bank of England now, at the current meeting on Thursday
- The Bank of England will be the first who will start to build real action in the hurricane «Brexit», paving the way for the rest of the regulators
- RBA and RBNZ expected quarterly inflation reports
- The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting in a complex environment
- Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the labor market
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,964
- Jul 8, 2016 10:21pm Jul 8, 2016 10:21pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,965
- Jul 11, 2016 4:19am Jul 11, 2016 4:19am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,966
- Edited Jul 13, 2016 1:46am Jul 12, 2016 7:23am | Edited Jul 13, 2016 1:46am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,967
- Edited 9:21am Jul 13, 2016 9:04am | Edited 9:21am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,968
- Jul 13, 2016 9:34am Jul 13, 2016 9:34am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,969
- Jul 13, 2016 9:43am Jul 13, 2016 9:43am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,970
- Jul 13, 2016 9:48am Jul 13, 2016 9:48am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Full Trader | 1,378 Posts
{image}
- #2,971
- Jul 13, 2016 9:51am Jul 13, 2016 9:51am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
{quote}
thank you my friend. Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,972
- Jul 13, 2016 3:03pm Jul 13, 2016 3:03pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,974
- Jul 14, 2016 5:10am Jul 14, 2016 5:10am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
[Цитата = Pierhh; 9028849] {цитата} Можно ли кодировать не отключать этот скрипт при замене времени пламя ?? [/ цитата]
I do not know
I do not know
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,975
- Jul 14, 2016 5:48am Jul 14, 2016 5:48am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,976
- Jul 14, 2016 6:04am Jul 14, 2016 6:04am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,977
- Jul 14, 2016 9:39am Jul 14, 2016 9:39am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,978
- Jul 14, 2016 9:51am Jul 14, 2016 9:51am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,980
- Jul 14, 2016 11:30am Jul 14, 2016 11:30am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,166 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...